Timothy Rezvan

Timothy Rezvan asked for clarification on Viper Energy's $1 billion share repurchase authorization, specifically if it's primarily for liquidity for 'unnatural holders' rather than open market repurchases, and the current attractiveness of open market repurchases. He also posed a macro question about Permian oil growth, given strong third-party turn-in lines and fading industry concerns.

Answer

CEO Kaes Van't Hof explained that the repurchase authorization provides flexibility, noting that open market repurchases were more attractive in Q4 2025 than currently. He emphasized that the authorization also allows Viper to facilitate exits for 'unnatural holders' without making the stock heavy. On the macro front, Mr. Van't Hof stated that the Permian Basin is likely to see continued oil growth, with larger operators and majors expanding, and conversations about activity reductions having largely quieted since early 2026.

Timothy Rezvan inquired about the Permian macro outlook, strong third-party turn-in lines in Q4, fading concerns about Permian oil rolling over, and expectations for Permian oil growth this year.

Answer

Kaes Van't Hof, CEO, stated that the Permian has been an outlier, and at current oil prices, he hasn't heard about rig drops since early in the year. He expects the Permian to grow, with larger operators and majors continuing to expand, and conversations about activity reductions having gone very quiet, indicating a strong outlook relative to North America.

Timothy Rezvan of KeyBanc asked for more details on the company's appetite for share repurchases and inquired about the target debt level for the balance sheet following the recent drop-down transaction.

Answer

CEO Kaes Van't Hof explained that while distributions are the priority, recent volatility created an opportunity for buybacks, and the company is prepared to lean in further if needed. Regarding debt, he stated there is no specific target, feeling the current leverage is 'pristine,' and highlighted that the new investment-grade rating provides superior access to capital for future opportunities.

Timothy Rezvan asked about the potential to activate the share repurchase program amid market weakness and for commentary on the consolidation opportunity in the fragmented minerals market.

Answer

CEO Kaes Van’t Hof confirmed the repurchase plan has significant capacity and could be used if market weakness persists, though the dividend remains the priority. He also highlighted Viper's unique ability to use cash and tax-deferred OpCo units for M&A. Outgoing CEO Travis Stice added that Viper can be opportunistic and does not need to pursue every deal.

Timothy Rezvan sought clarification on why the full-year CapEx guidance for CCUS remained unchanged despite the new CIP joint venture, which he expected might alter capital plans. He also asked about BKV's inclination to increase upstream production growth given the strengthening natural gas price strip.

Answer

CEO Christopher Kalnin explained that the CIP partnership provides an opportunity to optimize the pace and scale of CCUS capital spend, and that guidance will be refreshed after coordinating with the new partner. He reiterated commitment to existing projects and long-term targets. President of Upstream Eric Jacobsen stated that while the price strip is favorable for growth, the company is monitoring macroeconomic headwinds before committing additional capital, noting any increase would primarily impact 2026 production.

Timothy Rezvan focused on the potential CCUS joint venture, asking for confirmation of the 90 to 120-day timeline for finalizing an agreement, management's confidence in closing a deal, and whether the previously discussed general terms, such as a 49% partner stake, were still accurate.

Answer

CEO Christopher Kalnin expressed optimism about finalizing a CCUS joint venture within the 90 to 120-day timeframe, citing strong partner commitment and broad bipartisan support for carbon capture policy. He noted that while no deal is done until it's done, the company is confident enough to provide a specific timeline. He also confirmed that the general parameters discussed previously are still consistent with current negotiations.

Timothy Rezvan requested more context on the 40 net location inventory increase, asking whether it stemmed from a new geologic zone or revised spacing assumptions.

Answer

Executive A. McDavid (Dax) clarified that the inventory addition was split between the Delaware and Midland Basins. The increase was driven by observed operator success and expansion in the Lower Wolfcamp formation in the Midland Basin and the Bone Spring sections in the Northern Delaware. He emphasized that these zones were not included in the original acquisition underwriting, representing additional, un-risked value for the company.

Timothy Rezvan from KeyBanc Capital Markets requested an explanation for the year-over-year increase in cash G&A. He also questioned Sitio's appetite for large-scale M&A, referencing market rumors of a major DJ Basin deal, and asked if Q4 acquisitions were the primary driver of the lower oil production mix.

Answer

CEO Christopher Conoscenti addressed the G&A increase by framing it as a modest absolute dollar investment in people and systems to enable future scaling, noting G&A is covered by the first three weeks of royalty revenue. On large-scale M&A, he stated that deal size is less important than risk-adjusted returns, which have been superior in the smaller deals they've executed. He confirmed that Q4 acquisitions were a component of the lower oil cut, but emphasized that the underlying base production is also seeing a natural gas mix increase, a trend detailed by executive Jarret Marcoux.

Timothy Rezvan inquired about Kimbell's current M&A appetite, especially given the divergence between oil and gas asset markets, and how the company's stock price influences its strategy. He also asked about the target debt leverage and the firm's hedging philosophy.

Answer

Davis Ravnaas, President and CFO, explained that while Kimbell is always evaluating M&A, natural gas deals have been challenging due to high valuations. He affirmed their strategy to use equity accretively for deleveraging acquisitions. Mr. Ravnaas stated the company targets a leverage ratio of 1.5x or less, using its capital structure to protect common distributions. Regarding hedging, he noted their methodical approach, maintaining a 20% hedge level which they believe is sufficient to protect the business in low-price scenarios. Bob Ravnaas, an executive, added that their diversified model bets on the ingenuity of operators to drive organic growth.

Timothy Rezvan of KeyBanc Capital Markets questioned the updated timing for the Apollo preferred stock redemption, now planned for May 2025, and inquired about the recent increase in net DUCs relative to permits.

Answer

Davis Ravnaas, President and CFO, clarified that delaying the redemption to May 2025 is a cost-saving measure expected to save the company millions. He confirmed the plan is to redeem about half, pending stable market conditions. He also noted the rise in DUCs is a positive development, driven by Delaware Basin activity, which should benefit Q4 results.

Timothy Rezvan sought to clarify the company's stance on future share repurchases and asked why the new Lac Da Hong discovery isn't being immediately incorporated into the Lac Da Vang facility construction to accelerate value.

Answer

President and CEO Eric Hambly responded that while they won't rule out opportunistic buybacks, they are not 'leaning into it too heavily' and will prioritize the balance sheet. He clarified that the new discovery will be incorporated via an accelerated development plan, likely involving a simple wellhead platform tied back to the main Lac Da Vang facility, with potential production before the end of the decade.

Timothy Rezvan sought clarification on the 'more consistent onshore rig schedule' in the Eagle Ford, asking if it implied a full-time rig. He also asked what catalysts from LNG Canada would prompt Murphy to expand its Montney production.

Answer

President and COO Eric Hambly clarified that the company pivoted in 2024 from a two-rig program in the first half of the year to a single rig running consistently year-round, which should smooth out well delivery. Regarding LNG Canada, Hambly explained that a key catalyst would be the sanctioning of Phase 2, which could create opportunities for Murphy to supply gas. He noted that any plant expansion would be a multi-year process and signaled well in advance.

Timothy Rezvan questioned Gulfport's front-end loaded capital program, asking if the resulting Q1 production decline led to missed opportunities with strong winter pricing and how committed the company is to this strategy. He also asked for color on potential discretionary acreage acquisitions in the dry or wet gas markets.

Answer

President and CEO John Reinhart explained that the Q1 production cadence was planned and that a future shift toward dry gas wells will help accelerate cash flows. He affirmed they will be mindful of timing production for peak price seasons. Regarding acreage, Reinhart noted the company is assessing opportunities in high-return dry and wet gas areas, emphasizing they are very selective and that any deal must compete with share repurchases for capital.

Timothy Rezvan inquired about the expected cadence of the 2025 capital program and share repurchases, and asked whether the focus on increased liquids production would take priority over maintaining flat total equivalent production.

Answer

President and CEO John Reinhart confirmed the 2025 capital program will be front-loaded, similar to 2024. EVP and CFO Michael Hodges added that share repurchases are viewed on an annual and opportunistic basis. Reinhart clarified that while the goal is flattish total equivalent production, the primary focus is enhancing margins and free cash flow through a significant shift to liquids.

Timothy Rezvan sought clarification on the "programmatic" approach to share repurchases, the expected intensity of buybacks under the 50% free cash flow allocation, and the company's view on its optimal debt load, including potential opportunistic debt reduction.

Answer

President and CEO Paul Goodfellow described the programmatic approach as a balanced strategy of investing in the business, maintaining a strong balance sheet (leverage below 1x), and returning up to 50% of annual free cash flow to shareholders. EVP and CFO Sergio Maiworm added that while the current debt load is comfortable, the company would consider opportunistically repurchasing bonds if they trade at a discount.

Timothy Rezvan questioned the rationale behind the seemingly cautious 2025 outlook, asking if it was influenced by the CEO transition or oil macro concerns. He also sought clarity on the timeline for spudding the Daenerys well and when to expect results.

Answer

Interim Co-President and CFO Sergio Maiworm explained the cautious 2025 guidance reflects a heavy maintenance schedule and conservative estimates for weather-related downtime. He confirmed Talos is the operator of Daenerys and expects to spud the well in Q2 2025, with results likely available around the Q3 earnings release.

Timothy Rezvan asked for clarity on the 2025 production profile, questioning the unchanged full-year oil guidance despite a higher Q2 oil cut, and inquired if share repurchases are paused until the 1x leverage target is met.

Answer

CEO Herb Vogel and COO Beth McDonald confirmed the full-year plan is intact, attributing quarterly oil mix variability to the timing of large Uinta pads and noting a significant production increase is expected in Q3. CFO Wade Pursell stated that debt reduction is the primary focus for free cash flow until the 1x leverage target is reached, but did not entirely rule out opportunistic share repurchases.

Asked about the company's thinking on share repurchases once leverage targets are met and whether 2023 could be a model for a steady-state cadence. He also inquired about any initiatives to improve Uinta oil differentials.

Answer

The company's priority is to reach ~1x leverage, after which free cash flow will be prioritized for capital returns. They suggested that modeling a repurchase cadence similar to 2023 would be reasonable. Regarding Uinta differentials, they are actively working on improvements but declined to share specific commercial strategies.

Timothy Rezvan of KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc. asked about the outlook for share repurchases once leverage targets are met and inquired about specific initiatives to improve Uinta oil price differentials.

Answer

CFO Wade Pursell affirmed a clear path to reaching the 1x leverage target, after which returning capital to shareholders becomes the priority. He suggested that the repurchase cadence could be similar to 2023 for modeling purposes. CEO Herbert Vogel declined to detail specific commercial strategies for improving Uinta differentials but assured that the company is actively working on it and expects to see results in future realizations.

Timothy Rezvan asked about the future of the share repurchase program given the path to lower leverage, questioning if 2023 could serve as a model for a steady-state cadence. He also inquired about any initiatives to improve Uinta oil price realizations.

Answer

CFO Wade Pursell affirmed the company's discipline in using free cash flow to reach its sub-1.0x leverage target, after which returning capital to shareholders becomes the priority. He agreed that the 2023 repurchase cadence is a reasonable assumption for modeling purposes. President and CEO Herbert Vogel declined to detail specific commercial strategies but assured that the company is actively working to improve Uinta differentials over time.

Timothy Rezvan of Mizuho Securities USA LLC questioned Matador's strategy for its midstream segment, noting the removal of the term 'IPO' from the Q1 2025 presentation and asking about the path forward to realize its value.

Answer

Gregg Krug, EVP of Marketing and Midstream Strategy, responded that all options, including an IPO, are being investigated. He highlighted the segment's significant growth from 60 million to a planned 720 million cubic feet per day capacity and noted strong interest from third parties, indicating a focus on continued business growth.

Timothy Rezvan questioned the decision to prominently feature the Cotton Valley assets in the presentation, asking if this was a signal of a potential sale, especially given the company's strong leverage position.

Answer

CEO Joseph Wm. Foran clarified they are not trying to sell the assets, but rather highlighting them as 'another card to play' at an appropriate time. He noted the assets are held by production and are now more attractive due to rallying gas prices and improved horizontal drilling technology. EVP Tom Elsener added that modern techniques could yield significantly higher gas EURs than past wells.

Timothy Rezvan asked for specific guidance on the 2025 production mix (oil, NGL, gas) and questioned when the company needs to finalize its 2026 development program given long lead times and commodity volatility.

Answer

CFO David Sproule explained that with more natural gas wells coming online in 2025, the oil percentage of the production mix is expected to decline by less than 5% year-over-year. CEO Zack Arnold addressed 2026 planning by highlighting the company's strategy of continuously preparing projects in both oil and gas windows, which provides flexibility for late-stage capital allocation decisions based on the market environment.

Timothy Rezvan requested parameters for the 2025 production mix (oil, NGL, gas) and asked when the company needs to lock in its 2026 development program given commodity volatility and operational lead times.

Answer

CFO David Sproule explained that with more gas wells coming online in 2025, the oil percentage of the production mix is expected to decline by less than 5% compared to 2024. CEO Zack Arnold added that the team prepares projects in both oil and gas windows continuously, allowing capital allocation decisions for 2026 to be made closer to the time, likely presented to the board in the coming quarters.

Timothy Rezvan requested more details on the non-core asset divestiture pipeline, including its potential size and timing, and asked about the company's willingness to use third-party capital, like the Uinta joint venture, to accelerate value.

Answer

EVP & COO Clay Rynd confirmed a divestiture pipeline larger than the $50 million sold in 2024, referencing a publicly mentioned $250 million opportunity, which will be pursued opportunistically to maximize value. Regarding the Uinta, CEO David Rockecharlie and Clay Rynd characterized the JV as a prudent, risk-managed approach to delineate a specific, previously untapped area without committing significant capital or compromising future flexibility, consistent with their long-term, patient strategy for the asset.

Timothy Rezvan requested more details on the Uinta Basin joint venture, including its scope and potential for expansion, and also asked about the company's strategy for asset sales.

Answer

An executive, Clay, explained the Uinta JV is a small, near-term, three-well program to test secondary intervals in the Eastern extension, designed to accelerate delineation with no upfront capital. He confirmed it could be expanded if results are promising. Regarding asset sales, he stated the approach is 'all of the above,' involving both proactive marketing and responding to inbound interest to maximize portfolio value.

Timothy Rezvan inquired about the timing of increased activity in the Haynesville, asking if the impact would be felt in the first half of 2025 or later, and whether this sets up a multiyear growth period. He also asked for context on the remaining acquisition opportunities and the company's comfort level with taking on debt for acquisitions, noting their capacity to remain below 1x leverage.

Answer

Tom Carter, Chairman, CEO and President, responded that Black Stone is hopeful for a long cycle of growth in the Haynesville/Shelby Trough, driven by their large acreage position and efforts to expand their operator base, though he noted activity is sensitive to natural gas prices. Regarding acquisitions, he confirmed a significant inventory of opportunities remains available but emphasized a conservative approach to leverage, stating it's unlikely they would become '$300 million or $400 million levered' and that the pace of acquisitions will be influenced by the natural gas market.

Timothy Rezvan asked for an update on future activity levels with Aethon following a recent agreement amendment, specifically regarding rig activity in 2025. He also questioned the pace of the Gulf Coast acquisition program, asking if the measured spending was strategic or based on deal availability and if the company could scale up for a larger opportunity.

Answer

Taylor DeWalch, SVP, CFO & Treasurer, responded that the company is being thoughtful about the macro natural gas environment and expects Aethon to maintain its historical level of commitment in the Shelby Trough, without confirming a specific rig count. Regarding acquisitions, DeWalch stated that the current spending cadence is comfortable and deliberate, but the company continually assesses all opportunities, suggesting flexibility for the right deal.

Timothy Rezvan asked why Civitas doesn't allocate more capital to its derisked and high-performing DJ Basin assets to pull value forward, especially given Permian gas challenges. He also inquired about the adequacy of the company's Permian gas basis hedges.

Answer

CEO M. Doyle acknowledged this is an active internal debate, with the final 2025 plan to be guided by the most efficient use of capital. CFO Marianella Foschi noted that oil, not gas, drives economics. On hedging, she stated they opportunistically hedged about 50% of Permian gas through 2026 and are not inclined to add more at this time, given their disappointment with the market uplift from new pipelines.

Timothy Rezvan followed up on hedging, asking why Magnolia is comfortable not using basis swaps for gas, given concerns about the Matterhorn pipeline impacting the Houston Ship Channel. He also sought clarification on the outlook for oil production to remain "resilient" into Q4.

Answer

President and CEO Christopher Stavros explained that while the situation is complex, the company believes the impact of Matterhorn is likely priced in and will be offset by factors like the Plaquemines LNG facility coming online. He stated that hedging basis would amount to speculation, which the company avoids. Regarding oil production, he clarified that "resilient" means oil volumes are expected to be about flat from Q3 into Q4.