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    Timothy Savageaux • Northland Capital Markets

    Timothy Savageaux's questions to Applied Optoelectronics Inc (AAOI) leadership

    Timothy Savageaux's questions to Applied Optoelectronics Inc (AAOI) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Timothy Savageaux questioned if Applied Optoelectronics expects to generate material 800G revenue in Q3 2025, asked about opportunities with other major cloud providers besides Amazon, sought clarity on whether recent design wins were with Amazon, and inquired about the implied market share at Amazon from the warrant agreement.

    Answer

    CFO and CSO Dr. Stefan Murray confirmed the company expects material 800G revenue in Q3. He and CEO Dr. Thompson Lin stated that the three recent design wins were with another existing hyperscale customer, not Amazon. They emphasized significant opportunities with other cloud providers, highlighting their U.S. production as a key advantage that meets TAA requirements. Dr. Murray projected a potential market share of 30-40% at Amazon, with Dr. Lin suggesting it could ultimately exceed 40% due to tariff and domestic supply chain advantages.

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    Timothy Savageaux's questions to Applied Optoelectronics Inc (AAOI) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Timothy Savageaux asked about the significant 2025 capital expenditure plan, inquiring about its allocation between datacenter and cable TV, the resulting production capacity increase, the potential for a strategic investment to help finance it, and the timeline for capacity additions.

    Answer

    CFO & CSO Dr. Stefan Murry explained the CapEx is almost entirely for datacenter products, specifically 800G and 1.6T, with a substantial portion targeted for U.S. investment. He noted that financing discussions, including a potential strategic investment, are ongoing but not a prerequisite for starting. CEO Dr. Chih-Hsiang Lin added that the goal is to achieve a monthly capacity of 120,000-140,000 datacenter transceivers by late 2025 or early 2026, with specific 400G/800G AOC capacity reaching 120,000 per month by mid-2025.

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    Timothy Savageaux's questions to Applied Optoelectronics Inc (AAOI) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Timothy Savageaux inquired about the primary growth drivers for the Q4 guidance, seeking to confirm if data center growth would outpace CATV. He also asked for details on the customer mix driving data center growth, clarification on the status of a new hyperscale customer, and how planned CapEx would expand U.S. manufacturing capacity.

    Answer

    Executive Stefan Murry confirmed that while CATV growth continues, strong data center growth will be a key driver in Q4, led by 400G and resilient 100G demand, with 800G becoming more material in Q1. He clarified that the 'new' hyperscaler is a re-engaging former customer not expected to reach 10% of revenue in Q4. Regarding capacity, Murry stated that investments in the U.S. and Taiwan are planned to support the company's overall growth trajectory without providing specific revenue capacity figures.

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    Timothy Savageaux's questions to Aviat Networks Inc (AVNW) leadership

    Timothy Savageaux's questions to Aviat Networks Inc (AVNW) leadership • Q3 2025

    Question

    Timothy Savageaux of Northland Capital Markets asked about U.S. revenue seasonality for the June quarter and requested more color on the potential revenue impact of securing a new project with a Tier 1 customer.

    Answer

    CFO Michael Connaway acknowledged the historical Q4 seasonal strength but affirmed a more conservative outlook aligned with consensus due to macro and tariff uncertainty. CEO Pete Smith added that the demand environment is good, with a book-to-bill over 1. He also stated that Aviat has no single customer over 6.5% of revenue and that a new Tier 1 project could provide a top-line lift of 2.5% to 5% of total revenue.

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    Timothy Savageaux's questions to Aviat Networks Inc (AVNW) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Timothy Savageaux from Northland Capital Markets asked if Q2 should be considered the peak revenue quarter for the fiscal year given seasonality trends. He also inquired about what factors could cause results to fall to the lower end of the guidance range and if any nonrecurring items boosted the strong Q2 EBITDA margin.

    Answer

    CFO Michael Connaway explained that while Q3 revenue is expected to be seasonally lower than Q2, persistent strong bookings could lead to Q4 revenue being even higher than Q2. CEO Pete Smith added that potential negative factors for guidance include tariff-induced supply chain ripples, global Tier 1 project delays, or slower customer conversion of backlog. Connaway confirmed there were no nonrecurring items that boosted Q2's financial results.

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    Timothy Savageaux's questions to Aviat Networks Inc (AVNW) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Timothy Savageaux from Northland Capital Markets asked for clarification on Pasolink's sequential revenue performance, a breakdown of the U.S. revenue weakness between Tier 1 softness and state project pushouts, and the primary drivers for the anticipated record bookings quarter.

    Answer

    CFO Michael Connaway clarified that Pasolink revenue was up slightly sequentially in Q1, and he attributed the U.S. revenue decline roughly half to Tier 1 weakness and half to private network project pushouts. CEO Pete Smith explained that the expected record bookings are driven by a strong North America bookings environment and growing international Tier 1 demand. He characterized Aviat as "late cycle" relative to broader carrier spending but noted the Pasolink acquisition is helping drive a "V-shaped recovery" through exposure to its growing customer base.

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    Timothy Savageaux's questions to Fabrinet (FN) leadership

    Timothy Savageaux's questions to Fabrinet (FN) leadership • Q3 2025

    Question

    Timothy Savageaux attempted to quantify the Amazon revenue opportunity, asking if it could reach a level similar to peers' agreements (e.g., $400M/year), making Amazon a 10% customer. He also asked for a ranking of the drivers behind the strong sequential telecom growth in the March quarter, specifically the contribution from ZR, strengthening markets, and new wins.

    Answer

    CEO Seamus Grady could not confirm specific revenue figures for Amazon due to commercial confidentiality but agreed that the opportunity 'could get to that level.' He views the revenue tied to the warrant as a minimum platform to build upon. Regarding telecom growth drivers in Q3, he clarified that the growth was primarily from 400ZR and a recovery in non-speed-rated products. He noted that the major new wins (like Ciena) were still in qualification stages and did not contribute meaningfully to Q3 revenue, with their growth still to come.

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    Timothy Savageaux's questions to Fabrinet (FN) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Timothy Savageaux asked for clarification on telecom growth drivers beyond ZR, the outlook for Q4 given multiple tailwinds, the non-optical guidance, and a relative ranking of new systems opportunities.

    Answer

    CEO Seamus Grady and CFO Csaba Sverha responded. Grady confirmed telecom growth was driven by ZR and a competitive business win, with the Ciena ramp yet to come. He agreed the setup for the second half of the year is optimistic. Sverha guided for sequential growth in automotive and flat-to-slight growth in lasers. Grady declined to rank the new business wins.

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    Timothy Savageaux's questions to Fabrinet (FN) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Timothy Savageaux of Northland Capital Markets sought clarification on a new 400G business win, the datacom product mix shift, the revenue timing for 1.6T products, and an update on the Ciena business ramp.

    Answer

    CEO Seamus Grady clarified the new 400G win is a telecom DCI product with an existing customer and the datacom mix shift occurred within their main customer. He noted that while some 1.6T revenue is already present, a significant ramp is still ahead. The Ciena business ramp is expected to become material in about nine months.

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    Timothy Savageaux's questions to Viavi Solutions Inc (VIAV) leadership

    Timothy Savageaux's questions to Viavi Solutions Inc (VIAV) leadership • Q3 2025

    Question

    Timothy Savageaux sought to quantify the size of the fiber lab and production business as a percentage of revenue and the potential revenue impact of the 'prudence' baked into the Q4 guidance due to tariffs.

    Answer

    CEO Oleg Khaykin estimated the fiber lab and production business is around 20% of NSE revenue. He noted that after a significant increase in the March quarter, the June quarter would see a pullback but still be stronger than December. Regarding the guidance, Khaykin suggested that a 'reasonable number to take a hedge' for potential revenue slippage due to tariff delays would be in the range of $5 million to $10 million.

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    Timothy Savageaux's questions to Viavi Solutions Inc (VIAV) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Timothy Savageaux sought to confirm that the carrier strength in North America was driven by fiber monitoring and asked if this strength was concentrated with large Tier 1s or was more broad-based. He also asked about the drivers of the sequential revenue uptick in Europe and requested clarification on the Q3 seasonality commentary.

    Answer

    President and CEO Oleg Khaykin clarified that while some Tier 1s in North America are starting to adopt fiber monitoring, the key driver in the region is actually hyperscalers. He noted that Europe's uptick was driven by NEMs and that the region typically lags the U.S. by 1-2 quarters. Regarding seasonality, he confirmed the Q3 outlook is better than a typical seasonal decline, expecting NSE to be flat to slightly up before the contribution from the Inertial Labs acquisition.

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    Timothy Savageaux's questions to Viavi Solutions Inc (VIAV) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Timothy Savageaux from Northland Capital Markets asked whether the strong carrier spending outlook is a temporary "budget flush" or a more sustained recovery, and also inquired about current product lead times.

    Answer

    President and CEO Oleg Khaykin asserted that the spending increase is from pent-up demand after two years of underinvestment, not a budget flush, representing a fundamental return to base business. He also noted that while mainstream field products have short lead times, bleeding-edge products like 1.6T and 800G face lead times of 3 to 6 months due to high demand for critical components like SerDes.

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    Timothy Savageaux's questions to Ribbon Communications Inc (RBBN) leadership

    Timothy Savageaux's questions to Ribbon Communications Inc (RBBN) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Timothy Savageaux of Northland Capital Markets sought clarification on whether Verizon revenue would return to Q4 levels in Q2, the potential for further growth with Verizon, and the pace of network migrations. He also asked about broader optical market trends.

    Answer

    CEO Bruce McClelland confirmed that Q2 revenue from Verizon is expected to be similar to Q4's record level, serving as a good planning baseline for the second half of the year. He noted that the migration pace has returned to one switch per week, with a goal to double that rate. McClelland also highlighted strong IP Optical growth in India and Southeast Asia, partly driven by customers seeking Western alternatives to Chinese OEMs and consolidating vendors.

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    Timothy Savageaux's questions to Ribbon Communications Inc (RBBN) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Timothy Savageaux inquired about the potential quarterly revenue run-rate from Eastern Europe if business resumes, the opportunity from carriers like AT&T eliminating TDM/copper networks, and specifics on investments in data center interconnect (DCI).

    Answer

    CEO Bruce McClelland estimated a potential normalized run rate of $10-$15 million per quarter from Eastern Europe. He detailed how Ribbon's portfolio supports both copper elimination and switching modernization strategies for carriers. Regarding DCI, he clarified that Ribbon is targeting the market through its telecom customers deploying equipment at the data center edge, rather than selling directly to cloud providers.

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    Timothy Savageaux's questions to Ribbon Communications Inc (RBBN) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Timothy Savageaux requested a breakdown of the 2025 mid-single-digit growth guidance by segment, sought to quantify the voice modernization pipeline beyond Verizon, and asked about the IP Optical opportunity from the Nokia-Infinera deal and the potential impact of a Verizon-Frontier acquisition.

    Answer

    CEO Bruce McClelland detailed that for IP Optical to grow in 2025, it must first offset a ~$25 million headwind from suspended sales to Eastern Europe. For Cloud & Edge, the product and service portions must grow faster than mid-single-digits to overcome flat maintenance revenue. He described a strong pipeline of voice modernization projects in North America and Europe, though none are on the scale of Verizon. McClelland characterized the Nokia-Infinera opportunity as a longer-term play, primarily in Asia Pac and Europe, and viewed a potential Verizon-Frontier deal as a significant catalyst for 2026 and beyond.

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    Timothy Savageaux's questions to Harmonic Inc (HLIT) leadership

    Timothy Savageaux's questions to Harmonic Inc (HLIT) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Timothy Savageaux of Northland Capital Markets requested an update on amplifier availability for DOCSIS deployments and asked if an aggressive spending ramp was expected from a large U.S. customer. He also questioned the drivers for the flat-to-down Q2 Broadband revenue guidance.

    Answer

    CEO Nimrod Ben-Natan reiterated that amplifier availability is progressing according to their initial plan. CFO Walter Jankovic declined to comment on specific customers but explained the Q2 guidance is prudent due to macro uncertainty. Both executives clarified the Q2 forecast reflects expected timing shifts in large projects and a more conservative approach to 'book and burn' revenue due to the tariff situation.

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    Timothy Savageaux's questions to Harmonic Inc (HLIT) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Timothy Savageaux questioned the drivers behind the higher 2025 gross margin forecast, the reasons for increased broadband OpEx despite revenue declines, and the rationale for the revised long-term growth outlook.

    Answer

    CFO Walter Jankovic attributed the higher gross margin forecast to a favorable product mix with a higher proportion of cOS software licenses versus hardware nodes. He explained that broadband OpEx is increasing to support the growth of 'Rest of World' customers. Regarding the long-term outlook, he stated the company is prudently managing the business based on a revised low double-digit CAGR from 2023-2028, aligning with updated market analyst forecasts that show a near-term dip.

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    Timothy Savageaux's questions to Harmonic Inc (HLIT) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Timothy Savageaux of Northland Capital Markets asked if the prior expectation for accelerating Broadband revenue growth in 2025 is no longer valid and if revenue could potentially decline. He also questioned the drivers for the high Q4 Broadband gross margin guidance and the increasing customer concentration.

    Answer

    CFO Walter Jankovic confirmed that the previous expectation of accelerating growth in 2025 no longer applies due to the Unified transition. While not providing specific 2025 guidance, he stated that even in their most conservative scenarios, they expect total company EPS for FY25 to be above the FY24 guidance. He attributed the strong Q4 margin guidance to a favorable product mix, specifically cOS, which CEO Nimrod Ben-Natan added is a unique Q4 event. Walter Jankovic also noted the Q3 concentration was expected and that revenue from non-top-2 customers is expected to increase in Q4.

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    Timothy Savageaux's questions to Maxlinear Inc (MXL) leadership

    Timothy Savageaux's questions to Maxlinear Inc (MXL) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Timothy Savageaux asked about the specific drivers behind the strong sequential growth in the Broadband segment in Q1, the reason for the flat performance in Infrastructure, and the expected customer concentration for the AI optical business.

    Answer

    CFO Steve Litchfield attributed the Q1 broadband strength to a broad-based recovery that was already underway, noting major new PON wins have not yet ramped. For Infrastructure, he explained that optical performed as expected, but the segment's overall flatness was due to the wireless business, which is still in recovery. CEO Kishore Seendripu stated that optical revenue will inherently be concentrated, expecting a 2/3 split from 2-3 major module makers in the long term.

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    Timothy Savageaux's questions to Maxlinear Inc (MXL) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Timothy Savageaux of Northland Capital Markets asked for the final 2024 optical revenue figure, a potential revenue range for the optical business in 2025, and commentary on the potential impact of the recent Amazon/Jabil agreement.

    Answer

    CFO Steven Litchfield disclosed that 2024 optical revenue exceeded the high end of the initial $10M-$30M range but was below the $40M stretch goal. He affirmed that a $60M-$70M target for 2025 is reasonable. While declining to comment on the specific Amazon/Jabil agreement, he confirmed Jabil is a good partner.

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    Timothy Savageaux's questions to Calix Inc (CALX) leadership

    Timothy Savageaux's questions to Calix Inc (CALX) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Timothy Savageaux inquired if Verizon's increased fiber build plans were a factor in the large customer strength and asked about potential opportunities with Frontier. He also asked about any tailwinds from the DZS bankruptcy.

    Answer

    CEO Michael Weening confirmed Verizon is a long-term partner and Calix benefits from their continued fiber expansion. CFO Cory Sindelar stated it was too early to comment on Frontier. Regarding DZS, Weening expressed empathy for affected customers and said Calix is focused on offering a "helping hand," which may result in future opportunities.

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    Timothy Savageaux's questions to Calix Inc (CALX) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Timothy Savageaux asked if the guidance for lower gross margin improvement, driven by a mix shift to systems, could be offset by stronger-than-expected revenue growth, potentially returning the company to double-digit growth by year-end. He also inquired about growth prospects with large carriers like Verizon.

    Answer

    CEO Michael Weening framed the mix shift towards subscriber systems as a long-term positive, as it represents laying the footprint for future monetization. CFO Cory Sindelar noted that the company could return to a double-digit annualized growth rate by the second half of the year. Regarding large carriers, Weening expects Verizon to continue investing at a consistent, albeit lumpy, rate and sees opportunities with other medium and large carriers who are recognizing the need to differentiate.

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    Timothy Savageaux's questions to Calix Inc (CALX) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Timothy Savageaux of Northland Capital Markets asked about the potential implications of Verizon's fiber build plans and its planned acquisition of Frontier. He also inquired about any significant shifts in the customer segment mix (small, medium, large) within the Q4 guidance and whether future growth is expected to be primarily small carrier-driven.

    Answer

    CEO Michael Weening called Verizon a good, strategically aligned customer but said it was too early to comment on the Frontier news. CFO Cory Sindelar stated there were no significant changes to the customer segment mix in the Q4 guide and that they expect progress across all segments in 2025. Weening elaborated that the need to transform from a network operator to an experience provider is a crisis facing all segments, creating opportunities across the board.

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    Timothy Savageaux's questions to Ciena Corp (CIEN) leadership

    Timothy Savageaux's questions to Ciena Corp (CIEN) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Timothy Savageaux of Northland Capital Markets asked about any competitive changes following the Nokia-Infinera deal and whether Service Provider growth could be the primary driver for fiscal '25 revenue growth.

    Answer

    CEO Gary Smith asserted that Ciena remains well-positioned with a multi-year technology advantage and sees the competitor's need to rationalize portfolios as a short-term opportunity. He clarified that while the Service Provider recovery is solid, he expects a significant ramp in Cloud revenue to be the main driver pushing Ciena toward the high end of its annual guidance range.

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    Timothy Savageaux's questions to ADTRAN Holdings Inc (ADTN) leadership

    Timothy Savageaux's questions to ADTRAN Holdings Inc (ADTN) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Timothy Savageaux sought more color on the drivers for the modest Q1 revenue growth guidance, asking about product or geographic contributions. He also asked about the indirect network impact of AI on carrier spending and requested an update on new European customer ramps in the access business.

    Answer

    CEO Thomas Stanton explained that the modest Q1 growth is positive given typical seasonality. He anticipates stronger Access and Aggregation growth, led by European customers who tend to have stronger early-year buying patterns. Stanton confirmed that AI is causing carriers in both the U.S. and Europe to evaluate their networks, which he expects will drive future upgrades. He also noted that while new European customer ramps are contributing, the larger, established customers remain the primary revenue drivers for now.

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    Timothy Savageaux's questions to ADTRAN Holdings Inc (ADTN) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Timothy Savageaux focused on the Q4 guidance, asking for the key drivers behind the expected sequential growth by product segment and geography. He also sought clarification on a comment about a 10% increase in sales to large carriers and questioned whether new customer wins were primarily a 2025 growth story.

    Answer

    Executive Thomas Stanton attributed the Q4 optimism to a broad-based increase in booking rates, stating he expects all business segments to grow, with international markets being a key driver for optical. He confirmed the 10% large carrier growth was across all segments and geographies. He also affirmed that major new customer wins are heavily weighted to be 2025 growth drivers, given the time required for lab approvals and deployment ramps.

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    Timothy Savageaux's questions to CommScope Holding Company Inc (COMM) leadership

    Timothy Savageaux's questions to CommScope Holding Company Inc (COMM) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Timothy Savageaux inquired about demand trends from carriers for fiber builds, noting positive industry commentary, and asked about the potential impact from Charter's announced delay in its network upgrade.

    Answer

    President and CEO Chuck Treadway stated that customers project growth in homes passed and connected over the next three years, which will benefit CommScope. He confirmed quarter-over-quarter improvement in this area, though not back to 2022 levels. While declining to comment on a specific customer, he acknowledged that CommScope is seeing delays in the ANS segment.

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