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    Timothy Thein • Raymond James Financial, Inc.

    Timothy Thein's questions to Paccar Inc (PCAR) leadership

    Timothy Thein's questions to Paccar Inc (PCAR) leadership •

    Question

    Timothy Thein asked if potential election uncertainty could delay truck orders from customers. He also inquired about the mix of medium-duty versus heavy-duty trucks in Q3 and if it would normalize in Q4.

    Answer

    CEO Preston Feight opined that customer buying decisions are driven far more by freight rates and economic conditions than by election cycles. President and CFO Harrie Schippers confirmed that medium-duty volumes were higher in Q3 due to some catch-up and are expected to return to a more normal mix in Q4. Schippers also noted that medium-duty product margins are 'well in line' with heavy-duty margins.

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    Timothy Thein's questions to Paccar Inc (PCAR) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Timothy Thein asked if PACCAR is considering changes to its North American manufacturing footprint due to tariffs and how it's approaching capacity increases. He also inquired if the outlook for the medium-duty market had been altered.

    Answer

    CEO Preston Feight expressed high confidence in PACCAR's current North American footprint, calling it the best in the industry and stating there are no plans to change it. He confirmed that capital investments in capacity will serve the company well long-term. He also stated the medium-duty market size forecast of 90,000 to 100,000 units for 2025 remains unchanged.

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    Timothy Thein's questions to Paccar Inc (PCAR) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Timothy Thein asked about current order activity, backlog fill rates for Q1 and Q2, and the composition of that backlog. He also inquired about the impact of foreign exchange on Q4 margins and the outlook for Q1.

    Answer

    CEO Preston Feight stated the company is roughly 75% full for Q1 and 50% for Q2, which he considers reasonable. He noted the backlog mix is returning to traditional levels as the heavy vocational influence from last year subsides. VP and Controller Brice Poplawski quantified the Q4 negative FX impact on net income at about $20 million, which President and CFO Harrie Schippers confirmed is factored into the Q1 margin guidance.

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    Timothy Thein's questions to Middleby Corp (MIDD) leadership

    Timothy Thein's questions to Middleby Corp (MIDD) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Timothy Thein asked about the sustainability of the positive mix benefit in the Commercial segment and inquired if the new store opening pipeline is shifting more towards international markets and how Middleby is positioned for that.

    Answer

    CFO Bryan Mittelman attributed the Q1 Commercial margin mix benefit to both favorable customer and product mix, including strong performance in the beverage platform. An executive, Steve, confirmed that the new store opening pipeline is heavily weighted internationally (75-25 or 80-20), with growth in Europe, India, and Brazil. He asserted that Middleby is 'incredibly well positioned' for this shift due to significant investments in international resources for both pre-sale and post-sale support.

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    Timothy Thein's questions to Regal Rexnord Corp (RRX) leadership

    Timothy Thein's questions to Regal Rexnord Corp (RRX) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Timothy Thein sought confirmation of the full-year free cash flow target, asked for details on the weak performance of the IPS segment outside of North America, and questioned if the strong projected exit rate for AMC's 2025 EBITDA margin is a sustainable run rate.

    Answer

    CFO Robert Rehard confirmed the free cash flow target remains on track for approximately $700 million. CEO Louis Pinkham acknowledged weakness in IPS's European and Chinese markets but noted this was offset by strength in North America, consistent with the full-year flat guidance for the segment. Regarding AMC's margins, Pinkham affirmed that the mid-20% range is a sustainable target, as the higher-margin automation business acquired with Altra is expected to grow and positively impact the segment's overall mix.

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    Timothy Thein's questions to Regal Rexnord Corp (RRX) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Timothy Thein of Raymond James questioned the projected Q1 sales decline in the IPS segment, given recent customer pushouts and positive order trends, and also asked about the seemingly conservative outlook for the distribution channel.

    Answer

    CEO Louis Pinkham stated that the company's overall 2025 forecast is intentionally 'measured.' For IPS, he explained that while order momentum is positive, many orders are for longer-cycle projects scheduled for the second half. The Q1 forecast is based on the current shippable backlog and book-ship assumptions, which indicate near-term pressure. He confirmed the conservative stance is to ensure strong execution.

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    Timothy Thein's questions to Cummins Inc (CMI) leadership

    Timothy Thein's questions to Cummins Inc (CMI) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Timothy Thein asked for more detail on the Engine segment's strong margin performance, particularly regarding aftermarket expectations and the sustainability of joint venture income.

    Answer

    CFO Mark Smith attributed the Engine segment's margin improvement to several factors, including lumpy JV technology fees that are unlikely to repeat at the same rate, exceptionally strong product warranty performance, robust parts demand, and pricing on new light-duty products. He cautioned that future volume remains a significant uncertainty due to weakening truck orders.

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    Timothy Thein's questions to Cummins Inc (CMI) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Timothy Thein questioned the drivers behind the projected margin improvement in the Components segment for 2025, asking how much is due to lapping the Atmus separation versus other operational factors. He also asked if the goal for the Accelera business to reach EBITDA breakeven by 2027 is still achievable.

    Answer

    CFO Mark Smith attributed the Components margin improvement to company-wide cost reduction efforts and continued improvements in the former Meritor business. Regarding Accelera, Smith stated that while the company is on track for its overall 2030 targets, the Accelera segment is currently not on track to achieve breakeven by 2027 due to market headwinds, which prompted the recent restructuring.

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    Timothy Thein's questions to Cummins Inc (CMI) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Timothy Thein of Raymond James Financial, Inc. asked about the potential margin mix impact in the Distribution segment as lower-margin whole goods for power generation grow. He also sought to clarify if all of the recent pricing benefit was from the one-time retroactive deal.

    Answer

    CEO Jennifer Rumsey acknowledged that a higher mix of whole goods is typically negative for margins compared to aftermarket, but this is being offset by inflationary pricing and operational efficiencies. CFO Mark Smith clarified that while the retroactive pricing was a notable factor in Q3, there were other pricing actions year-over-year. He described the retroactive payment as a timing issue, as it was always anticipated in the full-year plan but arrived in a 'lumpy fashion'.

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    Timothy Thein's questions to Eaton Corporation PLC (ETN) leadership

    Timothy Thein's questions to Eaton Corporation PLC (ETN) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Timothy Thein asked about the timing for realizing savings from the significant restructuring charges in the Electrical Global segment. He also inquired about a jump in days sales outstanding (DSO) and whether it was related to doing more business with hyperscalers.

    Answer

    CFO Olivier Leonetti stated that the margin improvement in the Electrical Global business is a key focus, with most restructuring targeted there. He indicated that both the impact of the restructuring programs and the associated savings would be more pronounced in the second half of the year. Regarding cash flow, Leonetti clarified the primary variable in Q1 was an intentional inventory build of about $150 million to manage tariffs, not a change in DSO, and reaffirmed the full-year free cash flow guide.

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    Timothy Thein's questions to Eaton Corporation PLC (ETN) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Timothy Thein of Raymond James asked for an update on the Aerospace segment, specifically on sales and order trends amid the ongoing labor strike and the resulting mix implications between OEM and aftermarket. He also inquired about the electrical content per project in the current pipeline, given the prevalence of equipment-intensive sectors.

    Answer

    Chairman and CEO Craig Arnold stated the aerospace strike's impact is baked into Q4 guidance, but its duration is uncertain. He noted that while it's a timing issue for revenue, a prolonged strike could positively impact aftermarket mix as existing fleets are used more heavily. On electrical content, Arnold explained that project type matters greatly, with data centers being far more electrically intensive than commercial offices. He confirmed the current project mix is favorable for Eaton due to the high intensity of data center and utility projects.

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    Timothy Thein's questions to Terex Corp (TEX) leadership

    Timothy Thein's questions to Terex Corp (TEX) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Timothy Thein asked if the Q1 Environmental Solutions (ES) segment results included any purchase price accounting adjustments and inquired about the company's steel hedging position and broader operating cost outlook.

    Answer

    CFO Jennifer Kong-Picarello confirmed approximately $10 million of purchase price adjustments in the ES segment. She also stated there is no material impact from steel inflation, as a significant portion is hedged at a favorable rate, and imported steel costs are already included in the $0.40 tariff impact figure.

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    Timothy Thein's questions to Terex Corp (TEX) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Timothy Thein asked about the customer mix of the acquired ESG refuse business and whether it might shift more towards local operators as chassis availability improves. He also inquired if ESG's "Third Eye" technology could be leveraged across other Terex business segments.

    Answer

    Executive Simon Meester stated that Terex does not anticipate a meaningful change in the ESG customer mix in 2025, noting their rapid vehicle turnaround is a key advantage for large customers. He enthusiastically confirmed that leveraging the Third Eye technology is a significant synergy opportunity, with active plans to deploy it in products like concrete mixers and utility trucks across the Terex portfolio.

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    Timothy Thein's questions to Allison Transmission Holdings Inc (ALSN) leadership

    Timothy Thein's questions to Allison Transmission Holdings Inc (ALSN) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Timothy Thein asked for an updated perspective on capital allocation, particularly regarding the potential for M&A, given Allison's strong cash balance and consistent cash generation.

    Answer

    CEO David Graziosi reiterated the company's shareholder-friendly priorities, including dividend increases, share repurchases, and funding organic growth. COO G. Bohley added that while the M&A market is challenging, Allison is proactively evaluating opportunities from a position of financial strength, leveraging its strong balance sheet and cash flow.

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    Timothy Thein's questions to Allison Transmission Holdings Inc (ALSN) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Timothy Thein inquired about other notable components of the new long-term supply agreements (LTSAs) beyond pricing, such as content, market share, or commodity adjustments.

    Answer

    G. Bohley, COO, CFO & Treasurer, highlighted that the new contracts include commodity pass-through clauses for both cost increases and decreases. He specified that these cover approximately two-thirds of steel and 80% of aluminum costs. He also mentioned other mutually advantageous components for both Allison and its OEM customers but did not provide further details.

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    Timothy Thein's questions to Allison Transmission Holdings Inc (ALSN) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Timothy Thein requested an update on the progress of Allison's four key growth initiatives, including defense and wide-body mining dump, and sought clarity on the timeline for achieving the associated revenue targets.

    Answer

    CEO David Graziosi detailed the status of each initiative. He described the defense business as the 'most advanced' toward its goal, with strong international momentum. Progress in regional haul and frac is currently constrained by softer market conditions in those sectors. The wide-body mining dump initiative is making 'very solid progress' despite mixed global demand, with ultimate success being a function of time and market recovery.

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    Timothy Thein's questions to AGCO Corp (AGCO) leadership

    Timothy Thein's questions to AGCO Corp (AGCO) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Timothy Thein of Raymond James inquired about any updates on Brazil's subsidized interest rate program and asked for the primary driver behind the upward revision to AGCO's full-year pricing outlook.

    Answer

    CEO Eric Hansotia responded that while there is no specific news on Brazil's subsidy program, he remains confident in the government's continued support for farmers. CFO Damon Audia clarified that the improved pricing outlook, which moved from 0-1% to approximately 1%, is mainly driven by assumptions related to the North American market.

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    Timothy Thein's questions to Federal Signal Corp (FSS) leadership

    Timothy Thein's questions to Federal Signal Corp (FSS) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Timothy Thein from Raymond James questioned the drivers of the strong ESG margins in a seasonally soft quarter, asking if any mix benefits or shipment timing played a role. He also sought to understand the double-digit growth in industrial orders, particularly in dump trucks, amid a cautious macroeconomic backdrop.

    Answer

    CFO Ian Hudson clarified that there was nothing unusual in ESG margins, attributing the strength to operating leverage from increased production. President and CEO Jennifer Sherman added that the strong industrial order growth, especially in dump trucks, was driven by strategic initiatives to expand geographically and gain market share, which helps mute cyclicality, rather than macro trends.

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    Timothy Thein's questions to Timken Co (TKR) leadership

    Timothy Thein's questions to Timken Co (TKR) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Timothy Thein questioned the drivers behind Timken's reported strength in North American distribution, which seems to diverge from public distributor results, and asked for more detail on the strategy to reduce vertical integration.

    Answer

    CEO Tarak Mehta suggested Timken may be gaining share of wallet with distributors due to its diversified portfolio but is guiding for flattish distribution sales in 2025. On vertical integration, he explained the goal is to reduce capital intensity and increase flexibility, a strategy reflected in the lighter 2025 CapEx forecast.

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    Timothy Thein's questions to Timken Co (TKR) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Timothy Thein asked about the overall supply-demand balance, particularly in Europe, given the prolonged industrial softness and challenges in the auto industry. He inquired about how the company is thinking about its capacity in the region and the potential for shifts.

    Answer

    President and CEO Tarak Mehta acknowledged the prolonged softness in Europe and stated that the company is making ongoing capacity adjustments based on mid-to-long-term needs. He emphasized that these actions are targeted at specific product lines rather than being broad, location-based decisions. He noted that short-term adjustments like furloughs are also being managed at the plant level, and any sizable restructuring would be announced.

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    Timothy Thein's questions to Oshkosh Corp (OSK) leadership

    Timothy Thein's questions to Oshkosh Corp (OSK) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Timothy Thein from Raymond James & Associates, Inc. asked about the expected seasonality of orders in the Access segment for 2025 and whether a year-over-year pickup could be seen in the second quarter. He also inquired if the expected price/cost tailwind in the Vocational segment for 2025 would be similar to the benefit realized in 2024.

    Answer

    CEO John Pfeifer noted that the industry is reverting to more normalized seasonal order patterns and that the current $1.8 billion backlog for Access is healthy. He mentioned more annual purchase orders are expected in Q1. CFO Matt Field added that for the Vocational segment, the favorable price/cost dynamic is expected to continue as the company works through its backlog, also highlighting strong performance in the refuse and recycling business.

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    Timothy Thein's questions to Oshkosh Corp (OSK) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Timothy Thein asked about potential shifts in the Access segment's product mix between aerials and telehandlers for the upcoming year. He also requested an update on the significant customer contract with Caterpillar, which is nearing its expiration.

    Answer

    EVP and CFO Michael Pack said it was too early to call the 2025 product mix. CEO John Pfeifer added that telehandler demand is particularly strong, justifying new capacity. Regarding Caterpillar, Pfeifer confirmed the partnership structure is changing but stated they will remain a good partner and will continue to support Cat and its dealers with JLG equipment.

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    Timothy Thein's questions to Caterpillar Inc (CAT) leadership

    Timothy Thein's questions to Caterpillar Inc (CAT) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Timothy Thein of Raymond James asked if the inventory absorption headwind seen in Construction Industries should be considered a broader headwind for Caterpillar as a whole in 2025, given the sales outlook.

    Answer

    Executive Andrew R. Bonfield confirmed that absorption will be a slight headwind due to lower volumes. He noted the situation is mixed, as inventory may build for high-demand, long-lead-time products (like Solar turbines) while being trimmed in CI and RI. This is factored into the overall manufacturing cost outlook.

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    Timothy Thein's questions to Caterpillar Inc (CAT) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Tim Thein asked for color on the strong orders and backlog increase, specifically the key drivers and whether delivery timing for these orders is extending further out.

    Answer

    Chairman and CEO Jim Umpleby confirmed the backlog increase was driven by a robust performance in Energy & Transportation, which more than offset a decline in the machine backlog. The E&T strength came from power generation for reciprocating engines and strong orders for Solar Turbines in both oil & gas and power gen. He noted that lead times for some large power gen orders now extend out 18 to 24 months.

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    Timothy Thein's questions to RBC Bearings Inc (RBC) leadership

    Timothy Thein's questions to RBC Bearings Inc (RBC) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Timothy Thein of Raymond James sought confirmation on the outlook for industrial sales to be sequentially flat, asked for color on the drivers of industrial outperformance, verified the full-year gross margin forecast, and requested context on the size of the Marine segment's backlog.

    Answer

    CFO Robert Sullivan confirmed the industrial segment's Q3 sales should be sequentially similar to Q2. CEO Mike Hartnett attributed the relative outperformance to easier year-over-year comparisons now that prior supply chain issues have subsided and confirmed the full-year gross margin improvement forecast of approximately 100 basis points still holds. Sullivan noted the Marine backlog is a meaningful 'couple hundred million'.

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    Timothy Thein's questions to Donaldson Company Inc (DCI) leadership

    Timothy Thein's questions to Donaldson Company Inc (DCI) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Timothy Thein inquired about the key drivers for the projected growth in Industrial Filtration Solutions (IFS) for fiscal 2025, how the tougher Life Sciences backdrop impacts capital deployment strategy, and the potential sales mix impact in Mobile Aftermarket as a major contract win normalizes.

    Answer

    CEO Tod Carpenter cited improving conditions in European Dust Collection, a strong backlog in Power Generation, and momentum from connected products as key drivers for IFS growth. He and CFO Scott Robinson stated that capital deployment priorities remain unchanged, with a focus on Life Sciences M&A, and noted strong cash flow allows for an increased share repurchase forecast. Tod Carpenter also suggested that lapping the prior year's OE destocking would be a more significant mix factor for Mobile Aftermarket than the normalization of a single contract.

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    Timothy Thein's questions to Parker-Hannifin Corp (PH) leadership

    Timothy Thein's questions to Parker-Hannifin Corp (PH) leadership • Q3 2025

    Question

    Timothy Thein inquired about the tenor of customer conversations amid rising economic uncertainty and whether discretionary spending decisions might be delayed. He also asked about pricing flexibility in aerospace to offset tariffs, given the prevalence of long-term agreements.

    Answer

    Executive Jennifer Parmentier characterized customer sentiment as cautious due to uncertainty, but not 'overly negative,' with companies wanting to be prepared for an eventual recovery. Regarding aerospace pricing, she confirmed they use the same strategies as in industrial. While acknowledging longer-term agreements, she noted these pricing conversations have been ongoing since the high-inflation period, and there is more flexibility on the aftermarket side.

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