Timothy Wojs

Timothy Wojs asked for more color on the magnitude of competitive price increases and whether Mohawk might raise prices by less to gain volume. He also questioned if further significant productivity actions are planned if demand remains sluggish.

Answer

CEO Jeff Lorberbaum stated it's too early to specify the final price increases but noted some announcements are around 8%. He said the company will assess market conditions over the next 30-45 days. He also mentioned that the company is continuously seeking cost reductions beyond the remaining $70 million from current restructuring and will take more actions if opportunities are found.

Timothy Wojs asked for an assessment of underlying market growth in 2024 for Mohawk's three segments relative to the company's performance, and whether Mohawk was gaining share. He also requested a high-level breakdown of hard surface versus soft surface sales in the Flooring North America segment.

Answer

CFO James Brunk described a difficult market across all regions, noting that hard surfaces like LVT grew faster than soft surfaces. CEO Jeff Lorberbaum stated that he believes Mohawk was 'either flat or gained a little' market share in most of its markets. Regarding the North America mix, Brunk confirmed that soft surfaces remain larger than hard surfaces, but the gap is closing.

Timothy Wojs inquired about the drivers for the expected 2025 recovery, questioning whether lower interest rates are essential or if pent-up demand and home equity are sufficient. He also asked for figures on LVT manufacturing capacity in North America.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Jeff Lorberbaum stated that a combination of both declining interest rates and pent-up demand is necessary for a 2025 recovery. He emphasized that lower rates improve consumer and business confidence, which is crucial for remodeling, and also make new housing more affordable. Executive James Brunk added that while LVT is over 30% of the U.S. market, domestic manufacturing capacity remains limited, with most supply still being imported.

Timothy Wojs of Robert W. Baird & Co. asked about potential definitional differences between the adjusted EBITDA guidance for AZEK and how AZEK previously reported it. He also requested specific volume expectations for the legacy North American fiber cement business for Q2 and the full fiscal year.

Answer

CFO Rachel Wilson confirmed there are technical differences in EBITDA calculation, noting that James Hardie includes stock-based compensation costs, which AZEK excluded. She also mentioned divisional reporting differences. For the volume outlook, Ms. Wilson stated that the full-year guidance anticipates the legacy North American fiber cement business being down low double digits, primarily driven by volume, as positive price realization is expected across all regions.

Timothy Wojs inquired about the revised second-half guidance, seeking a bridge from the prior outlook and the specific impacts from the ERP implementation versus lower volumes. He also questioned the implied gross margin for the Oklahoma segment and the flat sequential data center backlog.

Answer

CEO Matt Tobolski explained that the guidance revision was primarily driven by the ERP implementation's impact on the Longview facility's performance and a slower-than-expected production ramp at the Tulsa plant. He attributed Tulsa's margin pressure to Memphis startup costs and temporary inefficiencies from producing Basics products there, while reaffirming long-term targets. Regarding the data center backlog, he stated that business remains strong, but bookings are paced by production capacity, which the new Memphis facility will soon alleviate.

Timothy Wojs followed up on the full-year revenue guidance for the AAON Oklahoma business and asked for details on the mix between liquid cooling and airside cooling within the growing BasX backlog.

Answer

President and COO Matthew Tobolski confirmed the full-year guidance for the Oklahoma business has not changed, citing macro uncertainty for the fourth quarter. Regarding the BasX backlog, he explained that while there is significant activity in liquid cooling, there is also continued acceleration in airside cooling. He characterized the backlog as having a 'pretty good spread' between liquid and air products, rather than being dominated by one category.

Timothy Wojs asked about the pricing strategy for the new R-454B systems, sought to quantify the costs from operational inefficiencies at Longview and BASX, inquired about the expected D&A increase in 2025, and suggested segment reporting be realigned around the data center business for clarity.

Answer

CEO Gary Fields stated that AAON is monitoring the market before deciding on a specific R-454B price increase, noting a cost advantage from their in-house developed monitoring device. President and COO Matthew Tobolski detailed that inefficiencies stemmed from outsourcing, new employee training, and pushing facilities to meet delivery commitments, with improvements expected throughout 2025. CFO Rebecca Thompson confirmed D&A will increase in both COGS and SG&A. Tobolski also affirmed that the company aims to report financials by business unit (AAON vs. BASX) by 2026 to provide the clarity investors are seeking.

Timothy Wojs performed a calculation on the data center backlog, suggesting over $500 million in 2025 revenue, and asked for confirmation and how the company is prepared for such growth. He also questioned the strategy behind implementing less pricing in the Oklahoma segment, which could eliminate its historical price premium.

Answer

President and COO Matthew Tobolski confirmed the sentiment on data center growth was directionally correct but clarified that some backlog extends beyond 2025. He detailed the capacity expansion plans, including the completed Redmond project, the Longview facility ramping up through 2025, and the Memphis facility starting production in late 2025. CEO Gary Fields addressed pricing, stating that competitors are still selling older, cheaper R-410A inventory, masking the true price difference. He affirmed that AAON's margins on new R-454B units are solid and that they will monitor the market closely to ensure they get paid for their equipment's value.

Timothy Wojs from Robert W. Baird & Co. sought clarification on whether the $5-7 million pull-forward was an order or revenue figure, questioned the implied margin decline in second-half guidance, and asked about the company's pricing actions relative to competitors.

Answer

CFO Santiago Giraldo confirmed a portion of the $5-7 million pull-forward was recognized as revenue in Q2. He explained that second-half gross margins are conservatively modeled in line with year-to-date levels, balancing headwinds from increased commercial installations with the full benefit of recent price hikes. Giraldo also noted that Tecnoglass's price increases are on the low end of the competitive range.

Timothy Wojs of Robert W. Baird & Co sought clarification on whether the $5-7 million pull-forward was an order or revenue figure. He also asked about the expected margin cadence for the second half of the year and how Tecnoglass's recent pricing increases compare to competitors.

Answer

CFO Santiago Giraldo confirmed the $5-7 million was revenue pulled into Q2. He explained that second-half gross margins are conservatively modeled to be in line with year-to-date figures, balancing the ramp-up of commercial projects against the full benefit of recent price increases. Giraldo noted the price hikes are in line with, but on the low end of, competitors and primarily affect new residential and commercial orders.

Timothy Wojs sought clarification on whether the $5-7 million pull-forward was an order or recognized revenue. He also asked about the margin outlook for the second half of the year and how Tecnoglass's recent pricing increases compare to competitors across residential and commercial segments.

Answer

CFO Santiago Giraldo confirmed the $5-7 million was revenue recognized in Q2. He stated that H2 gross margins are conservatively modeled in line with year-to-date levels, balancing a commercial ramp-up with the full effect of price increases. Giraldo noted their 5-7% price hikes are on the low end of competitors and primarily impact residential, though new commercial contracts reflect the new pricing.

Timothy Wojs sought clarification on whether the $5-7 million pull-forward was an order number or revenue recognized in Q2. He also asked about the expected margin cadence for the second half of the year and how Tecnoglass's pricing actions compare to competitors.

Answer

CFO Santiago Giraldo confirmed the $5-7 million was revenue recognized in Q2. He stated that second-half gross margins are modeled to be in line with year-to-date levels, with potential headwinds from increased commercial construction being offset by the full impact of May's price increases. Giraldo also noted their price hikes are on the lower end of the high-single to low-double-digit range seen from competitors. COO Christian Daes added that the company maintains a conservative approach to projections.

Timothy Wojs inquired about the scale of imported architectural glass and windows in the U.S., the specific drivers of the 21.6% residential revenue growth, the reasons for a reduced outlook for the vinyl product line, and the strategic benefits of the Continental Glass Systems acquisition, including its integration and long-term margin potential.

Answer

Christian Daes, an executive, noted that Tecnoglass's primary competition is local, not imported. Executive Jose Daes added that the vinyl business is a new area for the company and they are still developing the product line. Regarding the Continental acquisition, he highlighted its strength in the condo replacement market and the strategic value of its U.S. manufacturing facility. CFO Santiago Giraldo broke down the residential growth, attributing about 15% to the legacy business with the remainder from geographic expansion, and stated that Continental's margins are expected to align with the group's overall margins over time through synergies.

Timothy Wojs of Baird inquired about the company's 2025 pricing strategy, the potential financial impact of proposed aluminum tariffs, the relative competitive impact of these tariffs, and any market shifts resulting from a competitor's recent acquisition in Florida.

Answer

Executive Jose Daes confirmed no price increases have been made yet, as they await clarity on tariffs. CFO Santiago Giraldo estimated the potential annual impact at around $25 million, which can be mitigated by sourcing from U.S. suppliers. Executive Christian Daes added that since competitors face the same pressure, it creates an even playing field that has historically benefited Tecnoglass. Regarding a competitor, Jose Daes acknowledged hearing rumors but emphasized Tecnoglass's own strong order growth.

Timothy Wojs from Robert W. Baird & Co. inquired about the transaction process, including how the deal came together, and asked about any associated breakup fees and the pro forma market share of the combined company.

Answer

MasterBrand President & CEO Dave Banyard shared that he and American Woodmark's CEO began discussions earlier in the year, quickly recognizing the value in combining the two companies. He directed the analyst to the forthcoming 8-K filing for specific deal terms, including any fees, describing it as a 'very market-based' agreement. Banyard declined to comment on specific market share figures, instead pointing to the investor presentation for details on channel coverage and product portfolio.

Timothy Wojs from Robert W. Baird & Co. inquired about the transaction process, including how the deal came together and if there are any breakup fees, and also asked about the combined company's pro forma market share.

Answer

Dave Banyard, President & CEO of MasterBrand, stated that he and American Woodmark CEO Scott Culbreth began discussions earlier in the year and quickly saw the value in combining. He mentioned that detailed specifics of the market-based merger agreement, including any fees, are available in the 8-K filing. Banyard declined to comment on specific market share figures, instead directing the question to the channel and product portfolio information provided in the investor presentation.

Timothy Wojs of Robert W. Baird & Co. asked about the history and process behind the merger discussions, inquired about any breakup fees associated with the deal, and sought clarification on the combined entity's pro forma market share.

Answer

MasterBrand CEO Dave Banyard revealed that discussions with American Woodmark CEO Scott Culbreth began earlier in the year. He directed the analyst to the forthcoming 8-K filing for specific deal terms, including any fees, describing the merger agreement as "very market based." Banyard declined to comment on specific market share figures, instead pointing to the investor presentation for details on channel coverage and product portfolio.

Timothy Wojs of Robert W. Baird & Co. asked about the process and timeline leading to the merger announcement, details on any breakup fees, and the pro forma market share of the combined entity.

Answer

President & CEO of MasterBrand, Dave Banyard, shared that conversations with American Woodmark's CEO began earlier in the year, leading to a collaborative process to unlock value. He directed the question on deal specifics and fees to the 8-K filing, describing it as a market-based agreement. He declined to comment on specific market share figures, pointing instead to presentation materials on channel coverage and product portfolio.

Timothy Wojs asked if there were any changes to the underlying components of the reiterated revenue guidance and requested specifics on the price and acquisition contributions to Q2 revenue, as well as the margin impact from tariffs.

Answer

CFO Oliver Gloe stated there are no changes to the seasonal profile of the guidance. He quantified that acquisitions contributed about $7 million to Q2 revenue, while pricing actions related to tariffs added about $1 million. Gloe clarified that the margin impact from tariffs is 'broadly neutral' due to successful supply chain mitigation efforts.

Timothy Wojs of Baird asked whether fiberglass penetration in the sand states is below the national average of 24% and requested a detailed breakdown of the key drivers for the 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance.

Answer

Executive Scott Rajeski confirmed that fiberglass penetration in the sand states is "significantly underpenetrated" and "well below the 24%" national average, representing a major growth opportunity. CFO Oliver Gloe then detailed the EBITDA bridge from $80 million in 2024 to the $95 million midpoint for 2025. Key tailwinds include volume leverage from sales growth, continued savings from lean/value engineering initiatives (at least $9 million), and the full-year impact of Coverstar acquisitions. These are partially offset by increased SG&A investments in sales and marketing for the sand state strategy.

Timothy Wojs requested details on Latham's Sand States strategy, including the current market size and future growth targets. He also asked about the company's expected level of sales outperformance relative to the underlying pool market.

Answer

CEO Scott Rajeski identified the key Sand States (FL, TX, AZ, NV, CA) as representing 70-75% of new pool starts, a market where Latham is underpenetrated. He outlined a strategy of dedicating teams and marketing to gain share. While not providing a specific outgrowth percentage, Rajeski pointed to 2024's performance, where Latham's sales decline is less than the market's, as indicative of its ability to outperform.

Timothy Wojs from Robert W. Baird & Co. asked about the reasons for a lack of pricing traction, whether project delays are affecting reroofing, and how Carlisle is positioned amidst industry consolidation among distributors and contractors.

Answer

CEO D. Christian Koch attributed the lack of new pricing traction to lower new construction volume increasing competition for jobs, but noted the overall pricing environment remains rational. He confirmed delays are concentrated in new construction, while reroofing remains strong. Koch emphasized that Carlisle's scale and cash flow allow for investments in innovation and operational excellence to maintain its leadership position and contractor preference.

Timothy Wojs of Robert W. Baird & Co. inquired about the volume cadence for the CCM segment through Q1 and into April, including contractor feedback on backlogs, and asked about changes to the raw material cost basket, specifically regarding MDI and TPO polymers.

Answer

CEO D. Koch noted that contractors are optimistic for the upcoming season, with strong reroofing demand offsetting weaker new construction. CFO Kevin Zdimal confirmed that after a slow, weather-impacted start in January and February, volumes picked up in March and continued with favorable order patterns in April. On costs, Koch stated the direct impact from tariffs is negligible, with MDI pricing seeing only slight increases for Q2. Zdimal added that full-year raw material costs are expected to be neutral, excluding any new tariffs.

Timothy Wojs asked about the pricing trend in the CCM segment during 2024, its trajectory in Q4, and the confidence in achieving positive pricing in 2025 to support margin expansion. He also inquired about the price-to-cost outlook and the capital deployment plans for M&A and share buybacks included in the 2025 guidance.

Answer

CEO D. Koch confirmed that pricing improved throughout 2024 and expressed confidence in 2025 price increases gaining traction in Q2, supported by market surveys and light channel inventories. CFO Kevin Zdimal specified that Q1 pricing would be down about 1% before flattening in Q2 and turning positive in the second half. Koch added that with raw material costs expected to be neutral, the price-cost dynamic should be positive for the year. For capital deployment, Koch outlined targets of ~$800 million in buybacks and M&A activity similar to 2024, with Zdimal clarifying that buybacks are in the guidance while M&A would be incremental.

Timothy Wojs of Robert W. Baird & Co. inquired about the Carlisle Construction Materials (CCM) segment's industry volumes for Q3 and the outlook for 2025, focusing on the puts and takes for new construction versus reroofing. He also asked about the M&A pipeline and the potential pace of future acquisitions.

Answer

CEO Chris Koch expressed optimism for 2025, citing potential for economic stabilization, pricing opportunities, and new product innovation. CFO Kevin Zdimal stated that Q3 CCM industry volumes were up approximately 3%, though Carlisle's volumes were impacted by over 1% due to weather and port strikes. Regarding M&A, Chris Koch confirmed a healthy pipeline with attractive synergy-adjusted valuations, and Kevin Zdimal added that the company expects to deploy $300 million to $500 million annually on bolt-on acquisitions.

Timothy Wojs of Robert W. Baird & Co. sought clarification on the North American volume and price contribution in Q2, the expected acceleration of price realization in the second half, how market share strategy adapts to a tougher housing market, and whether recent headcount reductions were structural or through attrition.

Answer

CFO Matt Dunn and CEO Michael Olosky clarified that North American volumes were down about 1% year-to-date, with a slight increase in Q2. They confirmed the recent price increase was only effective for about three weeks in Q2, so its full impact will be realized in the second half. Michael Olosky explained that in a slower market, the company's focus shifts from service speed to providing value engineering and cost-saving solutions to help customers with affordability. He also confirmed that headcount reductions have been managed through attrition, a cost discipline that will continue.

Timothy Wojs of Robert W. Baird & Co. inquired about the annualized financial impact of tariffs, sought clarification on how pricing and tariffs factor into the existing guidance, and asked about the timing of the gain from the Gallatin property sale.

Answer

Executive Michael Olosky explained that the 8% weighted average price increase helps offset both historical cost inflation and a portion of the new tariffs, but the company is not passing on the full tariff cost. CFO Matt Dunn clarified that original guidance included prior cost pressures but not the new tariffs or the price increase. Dunn also confirmed the gain from the Gallatin property sale is expected to be recognized in the third quarter.

Timothy Wojs asked for clarification on the market and revenue growth assumptions embedded in the midpoint of the 2025 operating margin guidance. He also probed for the threshold at which the company would implement price increases to counter tariffs and general inflation, and questioned the visibility and expected magnitude of market share gains in 2025.

Answer

CEO Michael Olosky stated the guidance midpoint assumes a flat market where Simpson continues its outperformance. He confirmed that the company is experiencing significant non-steel cost inflation and will act to preserve margins if tariffs or other costs necessitate it. CFO Matt Dunn provided context on tariff exposure. Regarding share gains, Michael Olosky noted recent outperformance has been well above the long-term average due to strategic investments, and they expect to continue exceeding that historical average.

Timothy Wojs asked for clarification on the new 20% operating margin "floor," questioning if it was a new target and how the company plans to achieve it in a slower market. He also sought details on the Q4 gross margin outlook, the price/mix contribution in North America, and potential start-up costs for the new Columbus and Gallatin facilities.

Answer

CEO Michael Olosky confirmed the 20% operating income margin is a floor, driven by the goal to be in the top quartile of peers. He explained they will achieve this by being more selective with SG&A and cost of goods investments, rather than cutting the base, to balance customer support with profitability. CFO Brian Magstadt projected the Q4 gross margin to be flattish to slightly up from Q4 2023. He noted that in North America, a higher dollar-per-pound product mix was nearly offset by higher rebates to larger customers. He also stated that detailed 2025 guidance, including facility start-up costs, would be provided in February.

Timothy Wojs asked for an update on the annualized cost impact from tariffs being incorporated into the company's forward expectations. He also sought clarification on whether pricing alone covers the dollar impact of tariffs, or if productivity actions are also needed. Lastly, he asked about the progress of shifting to the Design Select portfolio.

Answer

Neil Ashe, Chairman, President & CEO, described the tariff situation as dynamic but confirmed the company has covered the dollar impact through a combination of supply chain changes and pricing actions. He clarified that this dollar-for-dollar coverage is handled at the gross margin level, while productivity actions are designed to rebuild the margin percentage over time. He noted the Design Select rollout is a multi-year project still in its early to mid-innings.

Timothy Wojs from Baird asked for quantification of the price increase taken prior to the latest tariff news and inquired about capital allocation priorities for the next 12-18 months, specifically the balance between share buybacks and debt paydown.

Answer

CEO Neil Ashe stated that the prior price increase was in the 'lower middle-single digits' but declined to provide a specific figure for competitive reasons. On capital allocation, Ashe emphasized the company's strong cash generation and financial capacity, stating that all options remain available, including M&A, dividends, and share repurchases. He noted Acuity is positioned to act on attractive opportunities created by any market dislocation.

Timothy Wojs of Robert W. Baird & Co. asked for confirmation that the updated guidance was solely due to the QSC acquisition, sought details on initial customer feedback for the deal, and inquired about preparations for potential tariffs.

Answer

Karen Holcom, SVP and CFO, confirmed the guidance increase was entirely due to the inclusion of QSC and related interest expense, with the core business outlook unchanged. Neil Ashe, Chairman, President and CEO, added that feedback from systems integrators has been positive, with immediate interest in cross-selling, though that is not part of the initial integration plan. Regarding tariffs, he noted there has been much discussion but no action, and Acuity is prepared to respond if policies change.

Timothy Wojs from Robert W. Baird & Co. inquired about the current market conditions for the Acuity Brands Lighting (ABL) business, specifically regarding quoting and order release activity. He also asked for an update on capital allocation priorities, noting the company's large cash balance and reduced share repurchase activity in the quarter.

Answer

Neil Ashe, Chairman, President and CEO, stated that the company is confident about fiscal 2025, describing current market conditions as 'relatively normal' and expecting growth to be weighted towards the second half of the year. Karen Holcom, SVP and CFO, addressed capital allocation by highlighting the $555 million in free cash flow and noting that share repurchases for the year exceeded initial targets. Neil Ashe added that the company's strong balance sheet allows them to invest in growth, pursue M&A with a priority on the ISG segment, increase dividends, and repurchase shares.

Timothy Wojs of Robert W. Baird & Co. asked about the current state of landscape contractor channel inventory, the performance of the residential business, and the factors behind the year-over-year decline in the underground construction segment despite strong demand.

Answer

Chairman, President & CEO Richard Olson stated that landscape contractor inventory is largely at desired levels, with a slight elevation due to a late spring start, which is factored into the guidance. He confirmed the residential business and homeowner-focused professional products are the primary drivers of the revised guidance, citing consumer confidence and weather. For the underground business, he attributed the quarterly dip to dealer sales, SKU rationalization, and new product ramp-ups, while emphasizing the long-term demand runway from infrastructure projects remains exceptionally strong.

Timothy Wojs asked for details on Toro's supply chain exposure, specifically the percentage of COGS related to Mexico manufacturing and China sourcing, and the potential impact of new tariffs. He also questioned the state of field channel inventory for the professional grounds business and dealer sentiment. Finally, he asked why the strong underground business was not highlighted as a growth driver in the quarter's prepared remarks.

Answer

CEO Richard Olson explained that the vast majority of products, particularly professional equipment, are made in the U.S., while Mexico facilities produce some residential and irrigation products. He stated that China exposure is in the low single-digits of COGS and that enacted February tariffs are already in the guidance. Regarding inventory, Olson noted levels for pro landscape contractor products are higher than desired but much improved from a year ago. He clarified that the underground business remains a very strong driver, and its omission from the opening remarks was not indicative of any change in its positive outlook.

Timothy Wojs of Baird asked about the expected EPS cadence for fiscal 2025, the definition of a 'normalized' backlog, the risk of a sales 'air pocket' in 2026 as backlog is worked down, and the potential impact of a new political administration.

Answer

CFO Angela Drake indicated a stronger second half for fiscal 2025 and defined a normalized backlog as likely 'south of $600 million.' CEO Richard Olson expressed confidence in avoiding a 2026 'air pocket' due to durable demand in key markets and the portfolio's balance. He also noted that potential labor shortages could drive demand for productivity-enhancing equipment and that tariff impacts are not included in guidance.

Timothy Wojs inquired about the current status of the order backlog, specifically its size relative to previous periods and whether book-to-bill is positive for the golf and underground businesses. He also asked for clarification on how the company is balancing channel inventory reduction with the observed macro caution in the lawn and garden business, and if the professional segment's quarterly miss was tied to weaker July shipments.

Answer

CEO Richard Olson confirmed the order backlog has decreased year-over-year and sequentially but remains elevated in golf and underground due to extremely strong order intake, with normalization expected by the end of fiscal 2025. He stated the company is about 80% of the way through its dealer inventory normalization plan, with the recent slowdown driven by homeowner caution on high-ticket items in July. Olson also affirmed that the professional segment's variance to guidance was specifically due to the landscape business and weaker July shipments.

Timothy Wojs of Robert W. Baird & Co. asked about the pricing assumptions within the revenue guidance, whether pricing and productivity could fully offset inflation in fiscal 2026, and if the performance gap in the builder business due to mix shifts is expected to persist.

Answer

President & CEO Scott Culbreth noted the guidance range incorporates various pricing scenarios to offset up to $20 million in tariff costs. He explained that while the company aims to recover inflation over time, a potential lag effect is factored into the fiscal 2026 outlook. He did not have a long-term view from builders on whether the negative mix shift would persist but confirmed it is the current driver of underperformance versus completions.

Timothy Wojs requested quantification of the mix headwinds in the new construction business and asked about the drivers behind it. He also inquired about the magnitude of input cost headwinds and the rationale for delaying price increases, and finally, the expected annual financial benefit from the Orange, VA plant closure.

Answer

Executive M. Culbreth detailed that the mix headwind stems from builders rotating to lower-priced product tiers and reducing the number of cabinets per home to improve affordability. He confirmed the company is delaying pricing action to consolidate any necessary increases with potential tariff impacts into a single event. Regarding the Orange facility, Culbreth stated that the financial benefits will be incorporated into the fiscal year 2026 outlook, which will be provided on the next earnings call.

Timothy Wojs asked if the top line could turn positive by Q4, what drove the modest reduction in the EBITDA guide, for an outlook on free cash flow, and whether hurricane impacts were felt in the Southeast new construction business.

Answer

Executive M. Culbreth stated it was too early to call for positive sales growth in Q4, attributing the tightened EBITDA range to better visibility on volume impacts and recent inflation. Executive Paul Joachimczyk noted free cash flow would be consistent but with some working capital pressure from inventory. Culbreth confirmed minor, temporary hurricane impacts but nothing material expected for Q3.

Timothy Wojs asked for channel partner feedback on whether the Repair & Remodel (R&R) slowdown is purely an interest rate issue with deferred demand. He also inquired how share gain performance is tracking against expectations and questioned the future of the capital deployment strategy, particularly share repurchases.

Answer

Executive M. Culbreth relayed that channel feedback indicates the R&R slowdown is a temporary pause, not a structural decline, comparing the pent-up demand to a 'beach ball being held under water.' He confirmed share gains are tracking as expected and that the company remains confident in its share repurchase program with no near-term changes planned.

Timothy Wojs asked about the expected sales seasonality for the second half of the year, considering the company's new inventory practices. He also questioned how management differentiates between a typical seasonal demand pickup versus an underlying improvement, given the strong performance in March and April.

Answer

CEO Bryan Fairbanks outlined a return to a more traditional pre-pandemic seasonality, with Q2 as the peak, followed by a moderate decline in Q3 and a significant drop in Q4. He explained that while January and February were weak, a sharp and sustained uptick in marketing metrics coincided with improving weather in March, giving them confidence in the strength of underlying consumer demand beyond just seasonality.

Timothy Wojs of Baird inquired if the 5-7% top-line growth guidance is purely sell-through and asked for more details on the restructuring costs related to accelerating digital transformation.

Answer

CEO Bryan Fairbanks clarified that the growth guidance will be roughly in line with sell-through by year-end, with minimal impact from pricing. CFO Brenda Lovcik detailed that the digital transformation involves operational efficiencies, harnessing data, and enhancing the consumer journey under the new CIO. The associated restructuring costs relate to writing off some existing assets as new initiatives are implemented.

Timothy Wojs asked about potential inflation in recycled polyethylene grades and whether Trex was experiencing it. He also requested clarification on the 2025 repair and remodel market growth assumption.

Answer

CEO Bryan Fairbanks stated that the company continues to see very moderate inflation in the specific polyethylene film it purchases and that it is not a concern. He also clarified that the company's assumption for 2025 R&R market growth is in the low single digits.

Timothy Wojs of Baird asked about the effective realization of the recent price increase in the HBP segment and requested a reminder of the typical revenue and EBITDA seasonality for HBP in the second half of the fiscal year.

Answer

Executive Brian Harris confirmed that Griffon generally sees good realization on its price increases and noted competitors followed suit. Regarding seasonality, Harris explained that Q2 is typically the lowest quarter, with Q3 trending upward. He added that they now expect HBP volume in the second half to be better than originally anticipated, potentially offsetting CPP weakness.

Timothy Wojs of Robert W. Baird & Co. asked for a breakdown of how the $1.7 billion gross tariff impact would be offset between pricing, SG&A reductions, and supply chain moves. He also inquired about the demand elasticity assumptions underlying the forecast for a low single-digit volume decline.

Answer

EVP and CFO Pat Hallinan stated that near-term mitigation will be dominated by price increases. He clarified the volume decline assumption is not based on a precise elasticity model but rather reflects ongoing DIY market softness, housing market pressures, and potential retailer disruption. He added that incremental SG&A cuts of approximately $125 million are planned to help offset the volume impact.

Timothy Wojs asked for the puts and takes behind the 2025 share gain targets in the Tools segment, specifically questioning the balance between accelerating DEWALT's growth versus improving the non-DEWALT brands to market growth rates.

Answer

COO Chris Nelson stated that while the company will continue to build on DEWALT's momentum, it also expects to see stabilization and modest share gains from its other core brands, Stanley and Craftsman. An executive, likely CFO Pat Hallinan, added context that about one percentage point of the growth in the back half of 2024 was from FX-related pricing, a factor to consider when modeling year-over-year growth.

Timothy Wojs asked for details on the 'accelerated activities' for cost savings, specifically which cost buckets are being targeted, and inquired about the biggest organizational changes needed to shift from an M&A-focused to an organic growth-focused culture.

Answer

EVP and CFO Pat Hallinan identified sourcing, footprint, and platforming as the three fronts for accelerated cost savings in 2025, with footprint actions being key. COO, EVP and President, Tools & Outdoor Chris Nelson detailed the cultural shift, highlighting a focus on core brands, serving specific end-user needs with purpose-driven innovation, increasing speed to market, and investing in front-end sales and marketing to drive share gain.

Timothy Wojs inquired about any changes in capital expenditure priorities within institutional verticals like healthcare and government, and asked for an assessment of Allegion's supply chain sourcing from China relative to its competitors.

Answer

CEO John Stone responded that institutional verticals remain resilient, supported by the late-cycle nature of the business and strong 2024 municipal bond issuances that have a long tail. Regarding sourcing, Stone stated that while he cannot speak for competitors, Allegion's residential business primarily imports from Mexico under USMCA, and its non-residential footprint is likely similar to its largest competitor, with smaller rivals possibly being more import-heavy.

Timothy Wojs of Baird questioned the source of increased confidence in the non-residential business, what factors could drive results to the high end of the Americas revenue guidance, and if the accretive nature of recent M&A is representative of the current pipeline.

Answer

CEO John Stone cited continued momentum from late 2024, strong spec activity, and positive leading indicators as reasons for confidence in the non-residential sector. Regarding M&A, he described the pipeline as healthy and active, and while they will remain disciplined, he noted not every future deal may be accretive to Allegion's industry-leading margins.

Timothy Wojs of Baird asked about expectations for reorder activity in the Attachments segment, the potential impact of cost-saving initiatives on production flexibility, the price versus volume breakdown for the Solutions segment, and the company's free cash flow outlook for the year.

Answer

Chairman and Interim CEO James Janik confirmed that even with average snowfall, reorders are expected to be soft as dealers first sell through existing inventory. COO Mark Van Genderen assured that production flexibility has actually improved despite cost cuts. CFO Sarah Lauber clarified that for the Solutions segment, price realization was in the low single digits, with a volume decline at Dejana offsetting a slight increase at Henderson. She also stated that full-year free cash flow expectations are strong and will comfortably cover the dividend, with working capital now expected to be a slight positive for the year.

Asked about the contribution from channel expansion to 2024 growth, the outlook for this contribution in 2025, and how the company would manage margins and spending if the market were to weaken further.

Answer

Executives stated that self-help initiatives, including channel expansion, contributed about 5% to growth in 2024 and they are targeting a similar level for 2025 with good early visibility. On margins, they highlighted that significant opportunities for improvement remain from recycling, productivity, and sourcing. They also noted that they have been investing heavily in SG&A, which provides a future lever for cost management if needed.