Tina Hou

Tina Hou asked for a rough revenue estimate or breakdown for XPENG's new businesses, including Robotaxi, humanoid robots, and eVTOL, over the next one to three years. She also sought details on the application scenarios and allocation for the 1 million humanoid robots targeted by 2030, including their expected selling price and cost. Additionally, she requested more specifics on the new car models planned for 2026, including launch timing, market segments, price ranges for both domestic and overseas markets, and a sales target for 2026.

Answer

Vice Chairman and President Dr. Brian Gu stated that XPENG does not provide numerical guidance for future development areas but anticipates volume production and operation for all three (land aircraft carrier, Robotaxi, humanoid robot) within the next 12 months, with limited revenue contribution next year but rapid ramp-up thereafter. He expressed confidence in the 1 million humanoid robot sales target by 2030 due to technology advancements and diverse applications. Vice President of Corporate Finance and VW Projects, Mr. Charles Zhang, detailed the launch of the X9 Super EREV in November, three existing EREV models in early 2026, and four new dual-energy models in various pricing segments next year. He emphasized that these seven models, along with international market growth (already 5,000 units/month in September/October), will significantly drive sales in 2026, with at least three new models targeting international markets.

Tina Hou asked for rough revenue estimates for XPeng's new businesses (Robotaxi, humanoid robot, eVTOL) over the next 1-3 years, including humanoid robot application scenarios, pricing, and cost by 2030. She also requested more details on new passenger vehicle models for 2026, including launch times, segments, price ranges for domestic and overseas markets, and the 2026 vehicle volume target.

Answer

Brian Gu, Vice Chairman and President of XPENG, stated no numerical guidance for future development areas but anticipated volume production for eVTOL (thousands of units) and operational testing/scaling for Robotaxi and humanoid robots in 2026, with rapid ramp-up thereafter. He confirmed a long-term goal of 1 million humanoid robot sales by 2030 across home, office, and factory settings. Charles Zhang, VP of Corporate Finance and VW Projects, detailed the X9 Super EREV launch, three additional EREV models in early 2026, and four new one-vehicle dual-energy models in 2026 targeting various segments. International markets are expected to be a major growth driver with higher profit contribution.

Tina Hou of Goldman Sachs requested a breakdown of the drivers for the significant 3.8 percentage point sequential increase in vehicle gross margin. She also asked about the full-year R&D spending guidance and the expected trend for sales and marketing expenses in the second half of the year.

Answer

Jiaming Wu, VP of Finance & Accounting, stated the margin improvement was primarily due to a favorable product mix shift towards the higher-margin G6 and G9 models. He also cited benefits from increased scale and ongoing supply chain cost reductions. He confirmed continued R&D investment and projected higher marketing expenses in Q3 and Q4 to support significant new model launches.

Tina Hou asked about the long-term potential for cost reduction across powertrain, ADAS, and vehicle body components. She also requested more details on the 2025 new model pipeline, including launch timing, price ranges, body types, and the overall volume outlook for the year.

Answer

CEO He Xiaopeng detailed a multi-faceted cost reduction strategy focusing on technology-driven improvements, such as 'super integration' of parts, optimizing the supply chain by empowering Tier 1 suppliers, and upgrading manufacturing processes. President Brian Gu confirmed plans for four new models and several refreshed models in 2025, spread throughout the year, but declined to provide specific launch details or volume guidance. He expressed confidence that the new models would be highly competitive leaders in their respective segments.

Tina Hou from Goldman Sachs inquired about Hesai Group's LiDAR pricing strategy for the upcoming year, including anticipated annual price cuts and competitive dynamics. She also asked about the expected acceleration of LiDAR adoption by OEM customers in 2026, the potential takeoff point for LiDAR as a standard option in mass-market models, and requested volume guidance for Q4 and 2026.

Answer

CFO Andrew Fan provided detailed guidance, projecting Q4 2025 revenues of RMB 1.0-1.2 billion and full-year 2025 revenues of RMB 3.0-3.2 billion, driven by rapid LiDAR adoption. He noted Q4 shipments are expected to reach 600,000 units, with ATX LiDAR accounting for 80% of deliveries at a market price of around $200. Fan explained that a shift from AT128 to ATX would lead to a lower blended ADAS ASP for 2025 but maintained a healthy Q4 gross margin of 40%. He raised full-year 2025 GAAP net income guidance to RMB 350-450 million. For 2026, Fan anticipated an "inflection point" with LiDAR shipments reaching 2-3 million units, but a potential decrease in blended ASP due to product mix, volume-based pricing, and annual declines. He highlighted catalysts like L3 vehicle deployment (3-6 LiDARs per car, $500-$1,000 system value), overseas ADAS growth, and robust robotics business. CEO David Li added that the value creation from L3/L4 autonomous driving would justify higher sensor costs, comparing it to a 10x increase in machine utilization.

Tina Hou inquired about Hesai Group's pricing strategy for the upcoming year, considering annual price adjustments and competitive dynamics. She also asked about the anticipated acceleration of LiDAR adoption by OEM customers, the expected "takeoff point" for mass-market models to standardize LiDAR, and requested volume guidance for Q4 and 2026.

Answer

CFO Andrew Fan provided Q4 2025 revenue guidance of RMB 1.0-1.2 billion, bringing full-year revenue to RMB 3.0-3.2 billion, a 50% YoY increase. He detailed Q4 shipments of 600,000 units, with ATX accounting for 80% at an ASP around RMB 200, noting a shift from AT128 to ATX impacting blended ADAS ASP. Gross margin is expected to remain around 40% in Q4. Full-year 2025 GAAP net income guidance was raised to RMB 350-450 million (RMB 200-300 million excluding equity gains). For 2026, Andrew Fan projected 2-3 million LiDAR shipments, anticipating a potential decrease in blended ASP due to product mix shift, volume-based pricing, and annual declines, but highlighted positive catalysts like L3 multi-LiDAR setups (RMB 500-1000 per vehicle), overseas ADAS, and robotics growth. CEO David Li humorously clarified that he and Andrew Fan were not AI robots.

Tina Hou from Goldman Sachs inquired about Hesai's full-year 2025 guidance, asking if the strong Q1 results and high LiDAR take-rates suggested potential upside to the initial shipment and margin forecasts.

Answer

CFO Andrew Fan confirmed that Hesai is maintaining its full-year 2025 guidance, which includes RMB 3-3.5 billion in revenue, 1.2-1.5 million total shipments, and a gross margin around 40%. He provided Q2 guidance for revenue between RMB 680-720 million with over 300,000 shipments, noting that despite the ramp-up of the lower-priced ATX LiDAR, the gross margin is expected to remain healthy, and the company anticipates reaching GAAP breakeven in Q2.

Tina Hou from Goldman Sachs asked about the long-term total addressable market (TAM) and margin profile for the robotics LiDAR business, and also questioned the potential for further cost reductions on the ATX platform.

Answer

CFO Peng Fan and CEO David Li addressed the robotics market, stating its TAM could be several times larger than the ADAS market with sustainably higher margins due to its functional necessity and diversified customer base. Regarding cost, Li explained that the ATX platform, priced at ~$200, is already highly optimized with 4th-gen ASICs and is unlikely to see significant further price reductions without compromising its safety function. He contrasted this with higher-priced L3 LiDARs, which create more value.

Tina Hou from Goldman Sachs inquired about the outlook for 2025 shipment volume, revenue, and margin, considering the product mix with the new ATX. She also asked for the normalized Q3 2024 gross margin excluding NRE revenue.

Answer

CEO David Li projected that 2025 shipments could reach 'millions of units' based on customer forecasts. He detailed that three AT models will be in production: the current ATP, a higher-priced ultra-high-performance L3 model, and the cost-effective ATX. Li clarified that the normalized Q3 gross margin, excluding NRE revenue, would be in line with previous quarters at approximately 40% plus.

Tina Hou from Goldman Sachs asked for a breakdown of autonomous mobility LiDAR shipments between AT128 and Pandar models and the pricing differences for units sold to robotaxi clients versus EV OEMs. She also requested a detailed analysis of the Q2 gross margin improvement, the reason for the lower Q3/Q4 guidance, and the outlook for 2025.

Answer

Executive Yuanting Shi explained that robotaxi clients are increasingly adopting ADAS LiDARs and typically pay a higher price, yielding better margins compared to high-volume passenger car OEMs. CEO Yifan Li attributed the strong 45% Q2 gross margin to cost management on the upgraded AT128, economies of scale, and a one-off high-margin NRE service fee. He guided Q3 and Q4 margins to be closer to 40%, with the sequential decrease due to the absence of the one-off fee, while emphasizing the company's strong financial position and path to profitability.

Tina Hou from Goldman Sachs asked about the company's long-term expectations for the stabilized average monthly sales volume of the new L90 and ES8 models.

Answer

A moderator, speaking for management, explained that it is difficult to provide a clear outlook on stabilized sales volume due to the highly competitive nature of China's auto market. However, they have implemented a new sales and marketing paradigm to prolong the market impact of new models and maintain a satisfying sales volume for as long as possible.

Tina Hou from Goldman Sachs asked for insights into the longer-term stabilized sales volume of the L90 and ES8 on an average monthly basis, considering the highly competitive Chinese market.

Answer

William Li, Founder, Chairman of the Board, and CEO, through a translator, acknowledged the challenge of achieving long-term stable high sales volumes for any single model in China's competitive market. He stated that while it's difficult to provide a precise long-term stable volume, NIO is implementing a new sales and marketing paradigm for the NIO and ONVO brands to prolong the impact of new models and stabilize sales at a satisfactory level, though its effectiveness will take time to assess.

Tina Hou from Goldman Sachs questioned how NIO plans to scale production capacity to meet its target of over 50,000 monthly deliveries in Q4. She also asked for an explanation for the increase in working capital days and the company's long-term target for its cash conversion cycle.

Answer

Management stated that current production capacity is sufficient for Q4 targets, with a third factory coming online in September and the flexibility to add double shifts. Regarding working capital, they explained the shift to an inventory-based sales model increases inventory levels, while the accounts payable duration remains around 90 days, with the absolute value growing with sales volume.

Tina Hou from Goldman Sachs asked for guidance on operating expenses, specifically the trajectory of R&D and SG&A spending for Q4 2024 and full-year 2025, given the multiple upcoming model launches. She also inquired about the expanding share of losses from investees.

Answer

CEO Bin Li stated that quarterly R&D expenses will be managed to stay around RMB 3 billion on a non-GAAP basis, with some quarterly fluctuations. He confirmed SG&A will rise with sales volume but will be managed for efficiency relative to revenue. Regarding investee losses, management explained the Q3 increase was due to the performance of upstream and downstream companies in a competitive market, clarifying that the battery asset management company's business is growing and has promising profitability.

Tina Hou from Goldman Sachs asked for guidance on operating expenses, questioning the potential for higher R&D spending in Q4 and 2025, and whether SG&A growth would accelerate with new model launches. She also sought clarification on the expanding losses from equity investees.

Answer

CEO Bin Li stated that quarterly R&D expenses will stabilize around RMB 3 billion on a non-GAAP basis, though quarterly fluctuations will occur. He confirmed Q4 R&D would likely be higher than Q3. SG&A will increase with sales volume, but the company will manage the SG&A-to-revenue ratio. Regarding investee losses, the increase was attributed to investments in upstream/downstream companies, not the battery asset management company (BaaS), which is seeing growth and has promising profitability.

Tina Hou of Goldman Sachs inquired about the expected gross margin for the ONVO L60 at different volume levels and the company's capacity expansion and CapEx plans for 2025-2026. She also asked for a breakdown of the drivers behind the Q2 SG&A expense growth and details on ONVO store economics versus NIO stores.

Answer

CEO William Li projected a 15% vehicle margin for the L60 at target volumes and confirmed a third factory will be ready by Q3 2025 to support growth. CFO Stanley Qu noted that 2024 CapEx will be significantly lower than 2023, with 2025 intensity expected to be similar. The Q2 SG&A increase was attributed to higher staff costs from increased sales and marketing for 2024 model launches. William Li added that ONVO store CapEx and rent are significantly lower than NIO's, with strict cost controls on renovations.

Tina Hou from Goldman Sachs inquired about Li Auto's strategy to achieve its full-year sales target amidst declining L Series sales and requested an update on the company's self-developed chip program.

Answer

President Dongguin Ma outlined a multi-faceted sales strategy, including enhancing EREV competitiveness with the new VLA assisted driving system, launching new BEV models like the Li i6, and implementing tailored marketing and channel expansion plans. CTO Yan Hsieh confirmed the in-house chip has successfully taped out, is undergoing vehicle testing, and is expected to deploy in flagship models next year, offering significantly higher performance than current market options.

Asked about the company's balance sheet, specifically the target leverage ratio and payable cycle to suppliers. Also questioned the biggest selling points and competitive advantages of the upcoming i8 BEV model.

Answer

The company maintains a healthy payable cycle of 2-4 months with its suppliers. The upcoming i8's key advantages will be its VLA Driver ADAS, innovative spatial design, superior handling, and ultra-fast charging (500km in 10 mins) supported by a network of 2,500 supercharging stations at launch.

Tina Hou asked about Li Auto's target leverage ratio, its payable cycle with suppliers, and the primary selling points and competitive advantages of the upcoming i8 BEV model.

Answer

CFO Tie Li stated that the company maintains a healthy payable cycle of 2 to 4 months with suppliers. CEO Xiang Li highlighted the i8's key advantages, including its innovative styling, spacious interior, superior handling, and the ability to gain 500 km of range in 10 minutes, supported by a network of 2,500 supercharging stations at launch.

Tina Hou of Goldman Sachs inquired about Li Auto's balance sheet management, specifically its target leverage ratio and supplier payable cycle. She also asked about the key selling points and competitive advantages of the upcoming i8 BEV model.

Answer

CFO Tie Li stated that the company maintains a healthy payable cycle of two to four months with suppliers. Management highlighted the i8's key advantages as its VLA driver model, innovative spatial design, superior handling, and rapid charging capability (500 km in 10 minutes), supported by a growing supercharging network.

Tina Hou of Goldman Sachs requested management's outlook for the NEV industry and competition in 2026, particularly regarding the focus on autonomous driving. She also asked about potential monetization models for future L3 and L4 autonomous driving software.

Answer

CEO Xiang Li projected that by 2026, NEV penetration will continue to rise, and competition will shift from growth to market share, favoring established brands. He anticipates intensified competition in autonomous driving, drive-by-wire systems, and AI cockpits. Regarding monetization, Mr. Li explained that while L2/L3 are driver-assist tools, L4 represents a fundamental shift to a 'driver agent' that users would pay for as a service. This would also unlock new business models for in-car experiences.

Asked for the 2026 outlook on the NEV industry, volume, and competition, particularly regarding autopilot. Also questioned the potential for monetizing L3/L4 autonomous driving software.

Answer

In 2026, NEV penetration and market concentration will increase, with competition shifting to market share and intensifying in autonomous driving and AI cockpits. Li Auto will respond by completing its product portfolio, investing in tech, and expanding its charging and sales networks. Regarding monetization, L4 is seen as a fundamental shift from a driving tool to a driving 'agent,' a service users will pay for. This will turn cars into 'space robots,' creating new business models for in-car services.

Tina Hou questioned Li Auto's strategy to maintain sales momentum in the second half of 2024 without new model launches. Additionally, she asked for an updated CapEx guidance and capacity expansion plan, given the previously lowered full-year volume forecast.

Answer

SVP James Liangjun Zou outlined the sales strategy, focusing on efficient operations, optimizing store deployment, strengthening online lead generation, and leveraging AD publicity. He set a goal to increase market share in the RMB 200k+ NEV segment to 16% in Q4. CFO Johnny Tie Li revised the full-year CapEx guidance down from approximately $2 billion to a range of $1.1 billion to $1.2 billion. He also expressed confidence in exceeding 500,000 deliveries for the year and expects free cash flow to turn positive starting in Q3.

Asked about the strategy to maintain sales volume in the second half of the year without new model launches, and for an update on CapEx guidance given the previously lowered full-year volume forecast.

Answer

The company plans to drive sales through efficient sales operations, optimizing store deployment, strengthening online lead generation, and promoting its autonomous driving features, aiming to increase its market share to 16% in Q4. The full-year CapEx guidance has been significantly reduced from $2 billion to $1.1-$1.2 billion, and free cash flow is expected to turn positive from Q3.

Tina Hou from Goldman Sachs inquired about Zeekr Group's sales performance in the first four months, the updated full-year 2025 sales target, and the key models expected to drive growth. She also asked for management's comments on the provisional privatization offer from Geely Auto.

Answer

CEO Cong Hui An acknowledged that April sales were not satisfying but were in line with management's expectations. He reaffirmed the full-year sales target of 710,000 vehicles for Zeekr Group (320,000 for Zeekr brand, 390,000 for Lynk & Co). He expressed confidence that new models like the Zeekr 007 GT, Lynk & Co 900, and the upcoming Zeekr 9X and 8X would drive future sales. Regarding the privatization offer, Mr. An stated the company could not comment directly due to compliance regulations, but noted a special committee of independent directors has been formed to evaluate the offer and that management would facilitate communication for investors.

Tina Hou from Goldman Sachs inquired about Zeekr Group's sales performance in the first four months, the updated full-year 2025 sales target, and the key models driving this target. She also asked for management's comments on the pending privatization offer from Geely Auto.

Answer

CEO Cong Hui An stated that while April sales were not satisfying, performance was in line with expectations. He reaffirmed the full-year sales target of 710,000 vehicles for Zeekr Group (320,000 for Zeekr, 390,000 for Lynk & Co). He expressed confidence in upcoming models like the Zeekr 9X and 8X. Regarding the privatization offer, he declined to comment directly, citing compliance regulations, but noted a special committee of independent directors was evaluating it and offered to facilitate communication for investors.

Tina Hou inquired about the specific conditions required to achieve the 2025 breakeven target, including sales volume, margins, and expenses. She also asked about the expected cost reductions from the Lynk & Co consolidation and the company's outlook for 2026 regarding product pipeline, sales volume, and capital expenditures.

Answer

Executive Jing Yuan explained that while market competition is an uncontrollable variable, the company is focused on controllable factors like integrating Lynk & Co's back-office functions and R&D teams to lower the R&D expense ratio to 6% and SG&A ratio to 8% in the medium term. Executive Cong Hui An added that the R&D pipeline has already been cut by 20% to avoid internal competition and that new, higher-margin super electric hybrid models will contribute to profitability. They reiterated confidence in the 2026 goal of selling over 1 million cars globally.

Tina Hou from Goldman Sachs questioned the composition of CC revenue, specifically the split between recurring and licensing/product revenue for the UC&C business. She also asked about the company's breakeven timeline, the reason for lower G&A expenses as a percentage of revenue, and the cause for the increase in outstanding shares.

Answer

Executive Yipeng Li explained that UC&C revenue is currently split about half-and-half between recurring and licensing/product models, driven by large enterprises preferring private cloud solutions. He stated that market share gain is the priority over a fixed breakeven timeline, though efficiency gains may accelerate it. The G&A ratio improved due to scale and the absence of prior one-time IPO/acquisition costs. An Unknown Executive attributed the higher share count to the February IPO and the conversion of preferred shares to common stock.

Tina Hou from Goldman Sachs asked a series of questions regarding the 2020 gross margin breakdown by segment and the 2021 outlook, the potential revenue contribution from the EliteCRM acquisition, plans to leverage the Tencent partnership, and the long-term view on market consolidation and market share targets in China.

Answer

Executive Yipeng Li provided a detailed response, stating that 2020 gross margins were approximately 28-29% for CPaaS, 55-56% for CC, and 45% for UC&C. He confirmed the EliteCRM acquisition's revenue would not be in Q1 results but noted its strategic value and annual revenue of RMB 50-60 million. Li emphasized that Tencent is a key strategic channel for acquiring large enterprise customers, with several deals already signed. For the long-term, the strategy involves M&A, international expansion, and leveraging a multi-product portfolio to achieve a 5-10% market share in China within 5 to 8 years.