Tracy Kivunyu

Tracy Kivunyu questioned why Jumia's GMV guidance for 2026 appeared conservative despite low base effects from corporate sales in Q1 2025, asking about any specific market risks or a more conservative approach. She also inquired about the percentage scope of the commission increases implemented.

Answer

Francis Dufay, CEO of Jumia, stated that the GMV guidance for 2026 is realistic and intentionally conservative, with no specific market risks factored in and confidence in the macro environment. He added that the guidance balances growth with additional constraints like improving take rates and marketing ratios. Antoine Maillet-Mezeray, EVP, Finance and Operations, clarified that corporate sales GMV in 2025 was not material. Dufay explained that commission increases vary by country, ranging from a few decimals to almost 2 points, with more aggressive increases for international vendors, aiming for a group-level impact of 0.5 to 1 point over GMV.

Tracy Kivunyu questioned why the 2026 GMV guidance appeared conservative, especially considering the low base effects from corporate sales in Q1 2025, and asked about the scope of the commission increases implemented this year.

Answer

Francis Dufay, CEO of Jumia, stated that the 2026 GMV guidance is realistic and hopefully a bit conservative, without factoring in specific market risks. He clarified that the guidance also incorporates efforts to improve take rates, increase commissions, and tighten spending, adding constraints to growth. Antoine Maillet-Mezeray, EVP, Finance and Operations, added that corporate sales GMV in 2025 was not extremely material. Dufay explained that commission increases vary by country, ranging from a few decimals to almost 2 points, with more aggressive increases for international vendors. Overall, at a group level, the increase is expected to be between 0.5 and 1 point over GMV.

Tracy Kivunyu inquired about Jumia's Q4 PBT guidance, specifically the significant expected cost reduction. She asked if this was primarily due to strong revenue acceleration from seasonality or additional cost management benefits, particularly in tech and G&A expenses. She also asked if the material deceleration in fulfillment cost per order in Q3 represented a new baseline or if an uptick was expected in Q4 due to sales, and later clarified on Q4 working capital movements and their impact on liquidity.

Answer

Francis Dufay, CEO of Jumia, confirmed expectations for significant Q4 usage acceleration driven by Black Friday and Christmas, leading to economies of scale in fulfillment. He stated that the Q3 fulfillment cost per order of $1.86 was a new baseline, not impacted by one-off elements, and anticipated continued improvement in fixed costs like tech. Antoine Maillet-Mezeray, Executive VP of Finance and Operations, added that Q4 would see better efficiency from scale and ongoing cost management. Regarding working capital, Mr. Maillet-Mezeray noted a Q3 improvement due to faster inventory ramp-up and did not expect significant changes in Q4 working capital dynamics, with Black Friday requirements managed intra-quarter.

Tracy Kivunyu inquired about Jumia's Q4 PBT guidance, specifically the expected significant cost reduction, asking if it's driven by strong revenue acceleration from seasonality or additional cost management benefits. She also asked if the material deceleration in fulfillment cost per order in Q3 represents a new baseline or if an uptick is expected in Q4, and about Q4 working capital movements and their impact on liquidity.

Answer

Francis Dufay, CEO of Jumia, explained that Q4 anticipates significant usage acceleration due to Black Friday and Christmas seasonality, translating into revenue and monetization. He confirmed that the $1.86 fulfillment cost per order in Q3, down 20% year-over-year, is a new baseline driven by scale and efficiency, with no one-off elements, and expects continued improvement in fixed costs like tech. Antoine Maillet-Mezeray, Executive VP of Finance and Operations, added that Q4 will see better efficiency from scale and ongoing cost management. Regarding working capital, Mr. Maillet-Mezeray noted a small Q3 improvement due to faster inventory ramp-up and does not expect significant changes in working capital dynamics for Q4, indicating Black Friday requirements were managed without drastic impact.

Tracy Kivunyu of SBG Securities asked about the drivers of order growth, specifically the mix between new and existing customers, and the sustainability of the strong first-party (1P) sales growth versus third-party (3P). She also questioned the flat quarter-over-quarter growth in orders from outside capital cities, the potential for pickup stations, the future trajectory of fulfillment costs, the growth slowdown in the mature Ivory Coast market, and the components of the finance cost line.

Answer

EVP Antoine Maillet-Mezeray stated that growth is a combination of acquiring new customers and increasing repurchase rates from existing ones. CEO Francis Dufay added that the 1P/3P mix is opportunistic, with recent 1P strength driven by key brand partnerships like Starlink, and they do not plan a major strategic shift. Dufay explained that the upcountry order share is a long-term trend where a 1% quarterly gain is significant, and fulfillment costs are expected to decline further through scale and automation. He characterized the Ivory Coast slowdown as a deliberate choice to monetize their scale in a mature market, while still expecting long-term double-digit growth. Maillet-Mezeray attributed finance cost movements primarily to FX and matured investments.

Tracy Kivunyu of SBG Securities asked about the potential for increased competition from Asian players, the contribution of international orders to GMV, and the monetization model and viability of the new Jumia Deliveries business. She also inquired about the regional drivers of customer growth, the profitability status of Jumia's top four country markets, and the primary factors contributing to the strong overall customer growth performance.

Answer

CEO Francis Dufay stated that Jumia is well-positioned to compete with non-resident platforms from Asia due to its strong brand, broad assortment, established delivery network offering cash-on-delivery, and tightening local regulations. He clarified that while international items are a significant portion of units sold, their lower average value means they represent a smaller percentage of GMV. Regarding Jumia Deliveries, Dufay described it as a high-margin business monetized via a per-package fee, designed to be profitable from day one with minimal new investment. He attributed the strong 15% active customer growth primarily to fundamental improvements in product assortment, pricing, and upcountry expansion, rather than increased marketing. While not disclosing country-level profitability, he noted that scale drives profitability and that key markets like Nigeria have a long runway for growth.