Trevor Allinson

Trevor Allinson asked for the size of Trex's railing business exiting 2025, given its double-digit growth in 2025 and expected double-digit growth in 2026. He also inquired how Trex's growth rate in 2026 is expected to compare to the overall decking market and whether the tailwinds from additional marketing spend are already factored into the guidance or represent potential upside.

Answer

Bryan Fairbanks, President and CEO, stated that railing is not a separate business segment, so specific sizing is not provided, but market share indicators will be shared. He expects Trex's growth to be ahead of the general decking and railing market due to account wins and marketing efforts, noting that marketing also contributes to the long-term benefit of the Trex brand.

Trevor Allinson asked for the size of Trex's railing business given its double-digit growth in 2025 and expected growth in 2026. He also inquired about how Trex's growth rate is expected to compare to the overall decking market in 2026 and if the additional marketing spend is already factored into the guidance or represents potential upside.

Answer

Bryan H. Fairbanks, President and CEO, stated that railing is not a separate business segment, so specific size is not provided, but market share indicators will be given. He expects Trex's growth to be ahead of the general decking and railing marketplace due to account wins and marketing investments, which are factored into the guidance, with some marketing also focused on long-term brand benefit.

Trevor Allinson from Wolfe Research, LLC followed up on capital allocation, asking if M&A would become a larger focus and inquiring about the expected step-down in capital expenditures next year.

Answer

President & CEO Bryan Fairbanks confirmed that the company will be looking at more M&A opportunities in the coming years. SVP & CFO Brenda Lovcik guided that ongoing maintenance CapEx is expected to be around $50-$60 million annually, representing a considerable step-down from current levels, though some Arkansas-related spending will carry into next year.

Trevor Allinson from Wolfe Research, LLC followed up on capital allocation, asking if M&A would become a more significant focus and inquiring about the expected level of capital expenditures after the Little Rock build-out.

Answer

President & CEO Bryan Fairbanks confirmed that M&A will likely be a larger part of their capital allocation strategy going forward. SVP & CFO Brenda Lovcik guided for ongoing maintenance CapEx to be approximately $50 to $60 million annually, though Fairbanks noted some spending for the Little Rock project will carry into the next year.

Trevor Allinson of Wolfe Research requested quantification of growth between premium and entry-level products in the 2025 guidance and asked about recent sell-through trends.

Answer

CEO Bryan Fairbanks declined to bifurcate the growth guidance but reiterated expectations for continued strong performance from higher-end consumers. He stated that the overall product mix from a margin perspective would likely be similar to 2024. Regarding sell-through, he acknowledged the positive Q4 but cautioned that one quarter doesn't make a year, reaffirming the 5-7% annual growth estimate as the best overall projection.

Trevor Allinson asked for clarification on the 6% railing market share figure and whether the decision to avoid a large Q1 inventory load-in is a permanent strategic shift.

Answer

CEO Bryan Fairbanks confirmed the 6% share is of the entire $3.3 billion residential railing market, including wood. He also affirmed that avoiding the large Q1 inventory load-in is a permanent change in strategy aimed at reducing the boom-and-bust cycles in production and channel inventory.

Trevor Allinson followed up on early revenue synergy wins, asking if they are occurring more quickly than anticipated and if commercial synergies are expected to come through sooner or more meaningfully in FY2027 for either siding/trim or decking. He also asked about the approach to siding pricing in a weaker demand environment, concerns about elasticity-driven volume headwinds, and expectations for realization on pricing.

Answer

CEO Aaron Erter stated that opportunities for commercial synergies are seen across all businesses (R&R, AZEK, fiber cement, exterior trim). Jon Skelly added that expanding shelf positions and presence during early buy periods, coupled with the expanded portfolio of leading brands, has created energy and excitement with customers, reinforcing confidence in synergy capture. Aaron Erter emphasized that pricing is strategic and value-based, not believed to be causing volume loss, as it's tailored to homeowner needs, particularly in repair and remodel.

Trevor Allinson asked if revenue synergy wins are occurring more quickly than anticipated and which business segment (siding and trim vs. Decking) is expected to realize commercial synergies sooner or more meaningfully in FY 2027. He also questioned the siding pricing strategy in a weaker demand environment, considering affordability and pricing spread versus vinyl.

Answer

CEO Aaron Erter stated that opportunities for commercial synergies are seen across all businesses (R&R, AZEK, fiber cement, exterior trim). Jon Skelly, President and GM in North America Building Products, noted that the expanded portfolio of leading brands has created energy and excitement with customers, reinforcing confidence in synergy capture. CEO Aaron Erter emphasized that pricing is strategic and value-based, not believed to be causing volume loss, and is adjusted for homeowner needs in R&R.

Trevor Allinson asked about the trends in Siding and Trim, particularly with builder customers in the South, comparing current market conditions to previous expectations from the August guidance reduction, and noting any geographical differences supporting the outlook. He also inquired about the competitive environment in decking and railing, including peer commentary on increased SG&A spend and expectations for marketing spend or rebates.

Answer

CEO Aaron Erter explained that the market deterioration was less severe than previously embedded in guidance, especially in the South. He provided a detailed regional breakdown, noting continued softness in Texas, challenging demand in Florida and Georgia with some elevated housing inventory, more stable activity in the Carolinas, and resilience in the Midwest. President of AZEK Residential Jon Skelly stated that their consistent strategy for AZEK, focused on the entire customer value chain, has been successful, and they see no need to change it, continuing to outperform the market through new product development, downstream sales and marketing, execution, and channel expansion.

Trevor Allinson asked about the primary drivers behind the weaker-than-expected Decorative Architectural (DA) margins in Q4, specifically if volume was the main factor, and how to think about the cadence of DA margins throughout 2026 given the lower starting point. He also inquired about Watkins Wellness's expected performance relative to the overall plumbing portfolio in 2026 and its approximate size exiting 2025.

Answer

CFO Rick Westenberg attributed Q4 DA margin impact to volume (due to Q4 2024 inventory build, Q4 2025 customer transition, and market dynamics) and the adverse effects of tariffs/glass anti-dumping duties on Liberty Hardware (which was still in DA for 2025). He referred to the recast 2025 quarterly data in the earnings deck appendix for 2026 cadence after Liberty's segment shift. CEO John Nuti expressed optimism for Watkins Wellness due to wellness trends and low household penetration for spas/hot tubs and saunas, expecting it to grow at least in line with the plumbing segment in 2026 and faster long-term.

Trevor Allinson questioned the weaker-than-expected Decorative Architectural (DA) margins in Q4, asking if volume was the primary driver, and how to think about the cadence of DA margins in 2026 given the lower starting point. He also asked about Watkins Wellness's expected performance relative to the overall plumbing portfolio in 2026 and its approximate size exiting 2025.

Answer

CFO Richard Westenberg attributed Q4 DA margin impacts to lower volume (due to inventory timing, customer transition, and market dynamics) and significant tariffs/anti-dumping duties affecting Liberty Hardware. He directed to the recast 2025 quarterly breakdown for DA margins in the earnings deck's appendix, noting the shift of Liberty to the plumbing segment. CEO John Nuti highlighted Watkins Wellness's strong position in the growing wellness market (low household penetration for spas/hot tubs and saunas), expecting it to grow at least in line with the plumbing segment in 2026, and potentially faster given market trends and product innovation.

Trevor Allinson from Wolfe Research, LLC asked about the future pace of reducing China sourcing exposure and whether lower-than-expected tariffs would slow this shift. He also inquired about the drivers for the higher year-end working capital target of 17.5%.

Answer

CFO Rick Westenberg explained that despite tariff volatility, the all-in rate on Chinese imports remains high at ~55%, so diversifying the supply chain remains a priority. He attributed the higher working capital primarily to tariff-driven inflation in inventory and receivables, as well as shorter payment terms for tariff invoices.

Trevor Allinson asked what factors are offsetting weaker-than-expected volumes to support the reiterated 2026 Plumbing margin target. He also inquired about plans to further reduce China supply chain exposure over the next year.

Answer

President and CEO Keith Allman expressed confidence in achieving the 2026 Plumbing margin target due to strong momentum in their production system, a robust productivity pipeline, and improving incremental profit on volume. He also confirmed that Masco will continue its careful and methodical shift of its supply chain away from China.

Trevor Allinson of Wolfe Research asked if the DIY paint market has reset to a point where it can grow in line with the broader R&R market. He also requested an update on Masco's exposure to Chinese imports following the Kichler divestiture.

Answer

CEO Keith Allman expressed his belief that DIY paint will return to growth, driven by millennial household formation and high home equity, but did not commit to it growing in line with the overall R&R market. CFO Rick Westenberg clarified that since 2019, Masco has reduced its exposure to Chinese imports by nearly 40%, an improvement from the 30% reduction mentioned previously, largely due to the Kichler sale.

Trevor Allinson also asked about Meritage Homes' spec inventory management, including the reduction in specs per community, the current target level, expectations for further reductions, and the target ratio of finished specs per community.

Answer

Executive Chairman Steve Hilton stated that while 17 specs per community is close to target, they aim for finished specs to be around one-third of total specs, down from the current 50%. He noted they carry more specs in anticipation of the spring selling season.

Trevor Allinson asked about Meritage Homes' 2026 outlook, specifically the change in approach to absorption pace given the challenging incentive environment, and inquired about the temporary new absorption level. He also asked about the current specs per community, the target for further reduction, and the portion of finished specs.

Answer

Executive Chairman Steve Hilton explained that the temporary refocus on margin in Q4 2025 was due to elevated incentives from other builders clearing inventory, and they chose not to chase additional sales. He anticipates improved returns in Q1 and Q2 2026, aiming for an average of 4 net sales per month. EVP and CFO Hilla Sferruzza clarified that there isn't a new temporary target, but rather a community-by-community, week-by-week optimization. Steve Hilton added that they are not yet at their ideal spec inventory level, aiming for about one-third finished specs compared to the current 50%. The 17 specs per community is close to their target, with slight variations based on market conditions and seasonality.

Trevor Allinson inquired about Meritage Homes' spec inventory, noting that total specs and specs per community are at a low point. He asked if the company expects to achieve the lower end of its four to six-month supply range in the near term and how starts relative to sales should trend. He also asked if Q4 orders are expected to be higher than Q3, and if this indicates a strategy to lean into volumes to reduce inventory, exceeding normal seasonal expectations.

Answer

Phillippe Lord (CEO, Meritage Homes) confirmed the goal to bring spec count per store closer to 16 (from 19) next year, aligning starts with sales pace but expecting an increase due to community count growth, clearing older inventory, and lower new home costs. He clarified that Q4 absorptions per store are not expected to exceed Q3, and the company is not leaning into volume beyond clearing older specs to optimize profitability, not chase incremental sales.

Trevor Allinson of Wolfe Research inquired about the absorption rates of newly opened communities and the expected cadence of community count growth for the remainder of 2025 and into 2026.

Answer

CEO Phillippe Lord confirmed that the 50 new communities opened in Q2 met expectations and contributed to the strong 4.3 net sales per month pace. He anticipates an even flow of openings in H2 2025 to achieve double-digit growth for the year and projects similar double-digit growth for 2026. CFO Hilla Sferruzza clarified this growth would be between 10% and 20%.

Trevor Allinson of Wolfe Research, LLC inquired about the absorption rates of newly opened communities and the expected cadence of community count growth for the remainder of 2025 and into 2026.

Answer

CEO Phillippe Lord confirmed that the 50 new communities opened in Q2 met expectations, contributing to the strong 4.3 net sales per month pace. He anticipates an even flow of openings in H2 2025 to achieve double-digit year-end growth and projects another year of double-digit growth for 2026. CFO Hilla Sferruzza clarified this growth would be between 10% and 20%.

Trevor Allinson inquired about the effectiveness of the 60-day move-in guarantee in driving realtor attachment and asked if potential direct cost savings could offset future tariff impacts.

Answer

CEO Phillippe Lord stated their co-broke rate is now 92% and the 60-day guarantee is a strong selling tool for realtors. CFO Hilla Sferruzza added they are seeing significant repeat business from agents. Regarding costs, Phillippe Lord said it's too early to predict if savings will offset tariffs, which he views as more of a 2026 issue, noting their scale and spec-building model provide flexibility to navigate supply chain issues.

Trevor Allinson inquired about the perceived risk of holding completed spec inventory in a slower market and asked for details on the cadence and regional focus of the expected double-digit community count growth in 2025.

Answer

CEO Phillippe Lord disagreed with the view that spec inventory is riskier, arguing that since Meritage only offers spec homes, it avoids the discounting pressure faced by builders who also offer build-to-order. He projected that community count growth would begin in Q2 2025 and be steady thereafter, with a slight skew towards the South and Southeast. CFO Hilla Sferruzza added that their model avoids margin penalties seen by competitors on canceled custom homes.

Trevor Allinson questioned the degree of conservatism in the Q4 margin guidance, given the company's history of outperformance, and asked about demand elasticity in response to rate movements. He also sought expectations for spring demand if rates remain elevated post-election.

Answer

CEO Phillippe Lord explained that while past guidance was conservative due to business transitions, they now have better visibility and do not see significant conservatism in the Q4 guide. He confirmed demand is 'extremely elastic' to rates, as seen with a strong September when rates fell, and expressed confidence in 2025 volume goals, noting the main variable is the cost of incentives to maintain pace.

Trevor Allinson asked about the implied average selling price (ASP) in KB Home's 2026 guidance, which is above Q4 2025 ASPs, and whether this indicates expected price increases or mix impacts. He also sought clarity on the outlook for share repurchases beyond Q1 2026.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Jeffrey Mezger clarified that the higher implied ASP for 2026 is entirely mix-driven, primarily due to high-end communities in California opening and delivering significant volume in the third and fourth quarters. He confirmed a programmatic approach to share repurchases, with $50-$100 million per quarter being a reasonable expectation beyond Q1, subject to cash position, stock price, and growth opportunities.

Trevor Allinson asked if the higher implied Average Selling Price (ASP) from the 2026 guidance midpoint, compared to Q4 2025, was due to price increases or mix impacts. He also inquired about expectations for returning cash to shareholders beyond Q1 2026.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Jeffrey Mezger clarified that the higher implied ASP is entirely due to mix, specifically the opening and delivery volume from high-end communities in California in Q3 and Q4. He stated that the company is programmatic with share buybacks, typically lighter in Q1, and suggested $50 million-$100 million per quarter is a reasonable expectation for subsequent quarters, balancing buybacks with growth opportunities.

Trevor Allinson asked about the Southeast region's performance, noting a significant sequential decline in order prices but strong volume growth, which is better than normal seasonality. He questioned if the strategy differed in the Southeast to liquidate inventory and what drove the order ramp and ASP decline. He also inquired about the widespread nature and magnitude of land price softening across geographies.

Answer

Rob McGibney, President and Chief Operating Officer, explained that the Southeast saw an accumulation of resale and new home inventory, leading to a slowdown in Q2 sales. The company responded by reducing prices, which drove the order recovery and ASP decline. He noted that this market also experienced significant declines in starts and strong cost reductions, leading to stabilization and now efforts to lift prices. Jeff Mezger, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, confirmed a slight easing in land prices across the system, not rapid drops, but enough to allow for better terms and prices, indicating that the 'power of no' is working with land sellers.

Trevor Allinson asked about the Southeast region's performance, noting a sequential decline of almost 6% in order prices but a 7% quarter-over-quarter increase in volumes, which is better than normal seasonality. He questioned if this indicated a different strategy, such as liquidating inventory, or what drove the order ramp and ASP decline. He also inquired about the widespread nature of land price softening, specific geographies, and the magnitude of declines.

Answer

Rob McGibney, President and Chief Operating Officer, explained that the Southeast's performance was not about chasing inventory but a response to accumulating resale and new home inventory and slowed sales in Q2. They reduced prices, which led to increased orders, and also achieved significant cost reductions in the region. He noted that the market is now stabilizing, and they are starting to lift prices. Jeff Mezger, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, confirmed a slight easing in land prices across the system, not rapid drops, but enough to see deals return at lower prices after initial rejections. He described the magnitude as incremental, not market-moving.

Trevor Allinson asked about the Southeast region's performance, noting a sequential decline in order prices but a significant increase in volumes, and questioned if this indicated a different strategy for liquidating inventory. He also sought details on the widespread nature of land price softening, specific geographies where it's most common, and the magnitude of these declines.

Answer

Rob McGibney, President & COO, explained that the Southeast's performance reflected a strategic price reduction in Q2 due to accumulating inventory, which successfully boosted Q3 orders. He noted that this market also saw significant cost reductions, leading to stabilization and opportunities to increase prices. Jeffrey Mezger, Chairman, President & CEO, confirmed a slight easing in land prices across the system, not rapid drops, but enough to secure better terms and lower prices by exercising the 'power of no.'

Trevor Allinson asked about the gross margin profile of the Inspirada community in Las Vegas and the potential margin impact as it closes out. He also questioned if the company is adjusting its spec production levels given the slower start to the year.

Answer

CEO Jeffrey Mezger declined to provide community-specific margins but affirmed that Las Vegas margins are 'well above the company average' and that new land acquisitions should allow the region to remain a top performer. COO Rob McGibney stated the current production mix is about 40% spec, and the long-term goal is to drive more build-to-order (BTO) sales, which carry higher margins, and move back towards a historical 80/20 BTO/spec mix.

Trevor Allinson asked about the recent jump in the percentage of optioned lots, questioning if it reflects a strategic shift. He also inquired about how demand trended throughout the quarter in the key markets of Florida and Texas.

Answer

Chairman & CEO Jeffrey Mezger explained that the higher option percentage is a result of competing in a tight land market and utilizing more phased takedowns to secure a growth platform. President & COO Rob McGibney added that markets like Jacksonville and Orlando saw increased pressure from resale inventory, prompting price adjustments that proved effective in stimulating sales, which bounced back in August.

Trevor Allinson asked about demand in Texas, noting D.R. Horton's South Central orders were up 11% year-over-year despite other builders reporting weakness. He questioned if this strong performance was due to leaning into volumes, strong community count growth, or other factors. He also inquired about industry inventory levels relative to demand, asking if reduced starts have aligned inventory or if further reductions are needed in weaker markets.

Answer

President and CEO Paul Romanowski described the Texas market as choppy and varied, noting D.R. Horton leaned into incentives to drive absorptions. He acknowledged bright spots but also elevated inventory in some areas. COO Mike Murray believes reduced starts have helped balance inventory market by market, also creating opportunities to reprice stick and brick costs. SVP of Communications Jessica Hansen added that builders are generally acting more rationally, adjusting inventory to avoid oversupply.

Trevor Allinson asked about demand in Texas, noting D.R. Horton's South Central orders were up 11% year-over-year despite other builders reporting weaker conditions. He questioned if this strong performance was due to a decision to lean more into volumes or robust community count growth. He also inquired if the recent reduction in starts pace has brought industry inventory more in alignment with demand, or if further inventory reductions are needed in weaker markets.

Answer

Paul Romanowski, President and CEO, described Texas as a choppy market, with D.R. Horton leaning into incentives to drive absorptions. He noted bright spots but also elevated inventory levels in some areas that the industry needs to address. Mike Murray, COO, believes the reduction in starts has helped balance inventory market by market, and this slowdown also provides an opportunity to reprice stick and brick costs. Jessica Hansen, SVP of Communications, added that builders are generally acting more rationally to adjust inventory and avoid oversupply.

Trevor Allinson of Wolfe Research, LLC asked for management's view on their current levels of completed and aged inventory and if there were specific targets for year-end. He also questioned the level of competition from the resale housing market.

Answer

President and CEO Paul Romanowski stated he feels very good about the progress made in reducing completed spec inventory and expects the count to continue declining, though without a specific target. EVP & COO Michael Murray commented that he is not hearing that resale inventory is a significant competitive pressure, citing the advantages of new homes, such as interest rate incentives.

Trevor Allinson of Wolfe Research LLC asked for management's view on the current levels of completed and aged inventory and whether there were specific targets for fiscal year-end. He also questioned the degree of competition from the resale market and how it ranks among other headwinds like affordability.

Answer

President and CEO Paul Romanowski expressed satisfaction with the progress in reducing completed spec inventory and expects the downward trend to continue without a specific target. EVP and COO Michael Murray stated that resale inventory is not a significant competitive headwind, as new homes offer compelling value propositions, including interest rate incentives unavailable in the resale market.

Trevor Allinson of Wolfe Research asked whether a further slowdown in demand would impact closings and orders more than gross margin. He also questioned if the company was pulling back on land and development spending.

Answer

EVP and COO Michael Murray indicated that the company has already adjusted its expectations and will respond to market conditions as they evolve to meet its volume goals. EVP and CFO Bill Wheat confirmed that land and development spend was lower in Q2 and will continue to be adjusted in line with sales volume, often by extending takedown schedules with development partners.

Trevor Allinson of Wolfe Research asked for commentary on geographic demand trends, particularly in Texas and Florida. He also inquired about the potential impacts of major policy changes regarding immigration or tariffs.

Answer

An executive, likely Matthew Bouley speaking for the team, noted some inventory buildup and valuation moderation has impacted sales in parts of Florida and Texas, but recent traffic has been pleasing across the footprint. COO Michael Murray stated it's hard to foresee policy impacts but emphasized that cost increases hurt affordability. Executive Jessica Hansen added that the company has managed tariffs and immigration changes before and impacts are often regional.

Trevor Allinson asked about the latest round of restructuring, what it aims to accomplish beyond previous initiatives, whether it impacts different product categories or geographies, and its distribution across segments. He also inquired if the increasing competitiveness in the European LVT market is due to product shifts from Asia following U.S. tariffs or a weaker European market.

Answer

CFO James Brunk explained that the restructuring is spread across all three segments, targeting unprofitable products, plant consolidations, exiting inefficient assets, and reducing administrative, sales, marketing, and operational costs. President and COO Paul De Cock stated that the European LVT market is competitive due to growing imports from China, despite being smaller than the U.S. market, and Mohawk is optimizing its position with both manufactured and sourced products.

Trevor Allinson inquired about the outlook for the commercial end market, given soft leading indicators, and asked about pricing actions in the U.S. Ceramics business, including the breakdown of its price/mix benefit in Q2.

Answer

President & COO Paul De Cock confirmed the U.S. commercial backlog remains strong, led by education and hospitality, but acknowledged that the market is expected to slow. Chairman & CEO Jeffrey Lorberbaum stated that selective price increases on higher-value ceramic products were implemented to offset inflation. CFO James Brunk clarified that the price/mix benefit in the Global Ceramic segment was fairly balanced between both price and mix.

Trevor Allinson asked for quantification of the expected energy cost headwind in the Q2 guide and whether lower natural gas prices would become a tailwind by Q4. He also questioned the risk of Chinese LVT flooding the European market.

Answer

Executive James Brunk stated that total input cost headwinds would be slightly higher in Q2 than the $41 million in Q1. He noted a natural gas benefit later in the year depends on price stability. President and COO Paul De Cock addressed the Europe question, stating the market is already saturated with Chinese LVT, so he does not expect significant additional price pressure from U.S. tariff changes.

Trevor Allinson inquired about Mohawk's Q1 2025 earnings guidance, asking if it aligns with normal pre-pandemic seasonality and if Q2 would follow a similar seasonal pattern. He also asked about the impact of recent natural gas price changes on the Global Ceramics segment's price/cost outlook.

Answer

CEO Jeff Lorberbaum confirmed expectations for normal seasonal improvements in Q2 but no significant change in underlying market conditions, noting continued pricing pressure and headwinds from a stronger U.S. dollar. Vice Chairman Chris Wellborn stated that while U.S. gas prices have increased, European costs remain well below their peak, with some hedging in place. CFO James Brunk added that cost changes typically take a quarter to impact the P&L.

Trevor Allinson asked about the potential tailwind from higher tariffs on imported LVT and requested details on recent laminate capacity additions. He also inquired about the current M&A environment and opportunities for consolidation.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Jeff Lorberbaum stated that higher tariffs would increase imported product prices, with the impact depending on the magnitude. He confirmed the company is ramping up production at its Georgia and Mexico laminate plants. Regarding M&A, he noted that there are limited transactions currently, as potential sellers are waiting for the market and their earnings to improve, but he expects more opportunities over the next 12-18 months.

Trevor Allinson inquired about Taylor Morrison's engagement with the administration regarding housing affordability and how these discussions influence the company's volume versus pace strategy.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Sheryl Palmer confirmed productive discussions with the administration on housing shortages and affordability, emphasizing a collaborative approach. She stated Taylor Morrison maintains its community-by-community strategy, balancing price and pace without flooding the market.

Trevor Allinson asked about Taylor Morrison's perspective on potential administration actions to boost housing volumes, inquiring if direct conversations had occurred and how these might influence the company's volume versus pace strategy in the current market.

Answer

Sheryl Palmer, Chairman and CEO, confirmed ongoing productive discussions with the administration focused on addressing housing shortages and affordability. She emphasized that Taylor Morrison's strategy remains community-by-community, balancing price and pace without flooding the market. Trevor Allinson also inquired about sequential demand trends, specifically if improvements were broad-based or concentrated in entry-level segments, and if these trends continued into October. Sheryl Palmer noted broad-based improvements across segments, with increased traffic and web activity, particularly in resort lifestyle, and highlighted the use of various tools to convert interest into action.

Trevor Allinson questioned the company's willingness to slow its sales pace further to protect margins and asked for more color on reported softness in the land market and development costs.

Answer

CEO Sheryl Palmer affirmed the strategy to prioritize price and margin, especially for irreplaceable core assets, while being flexible on inventory homes. Chief Corporate Operations Officer Erik Heuser added that land market softness is materializing in improved deal terms and some price moderation, while development cost inflation has been roughly cut in half due to better trade availability.

Trevor Allinson of Wolfe Research asked for details on the strong demand in the Central region, particularly Texas, and inquired about the outlook for the resort lifestyle buyer segment in 2025 after a softer Q4.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Sheryl Palmer attributed the Central region's strength to broad-based performance, highlighting Austin's recovery, Houston's repositioning, and Dallas's growth. She explained the Q4 resort lifestyle dip was due to hurricane impacts and community timing, and she expects the segment's closing penetration in 2025 to be similar to 2024, with potential for a slight uptick as new communities are added. Chief Corporate Operations Officer Erik Heuser added that favorable submarket positioning with lower resale supply is a key driver.

Trevor Allinson inquired about which consumer segment might perform best in 2025 amid potential rate changes and asked about the company's comfort level with its current completed spec inventory of approximately 1.8 homes per community.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Sheryl Palmer expressed confidence in all consumer segments for different reasons: first-time buyers benefit from rate moderation, move-up buyers from an improving resale market, and active adult buyers remain driven by lifestyle. An executive added that the company is comfortable with its spec inventory levels, noting that specs are now selling across all buyer profiles, including 37% of active adult sales, and that offering choice is a key competitive advantage.

Trevor Allinson from Wolfe Research, LLC asked if Toll Brothers was experiencing relief on land development costs and inquired about the timing and regional concentration of the significant community count increase guided for Q4.

Answer

Douglas Yearley, Chairman & CEO, stated that the company has not yet seen significant relief on land development costs. Regarding community openings, he confirmed they are spread throughout Q4. Gregg Ziegler, SVP - IR & Treasurer, added that there is a slight concentration of new openings in the North, Mid-Atlantic, and South regions.

Trevor Allinson of Wolfe Research asked about demand cadence through the quarter, particularly if May saw an uptick with the stock market rebound, and about demand differences across price points.

Answer

Executive Douglas Yearley described a sales cadence where February was the weakest month, while March, April, and May trended at a similar, albeit softer than desired, pace. He clarified that while their monthly pattern differed from some peers, the overall market softness was consistent. He emphasized that their guidance does not assume a market improvement and that their affluent buyer is more influenced by overall consumer confidence than minor interest rate fluctuations.

Trevor Allinson questioned if demand in Southern California or Washington D.C. has been affected by recent events and asked if buyers who previously waited for lower rates are now re-entering the market.

Answer

Executive Chairman Douglas Yearley confirmed that both Southern California and the Washington D.C. metro area remain strong. He noted that while some affluent buyers are moving forward despite high rates, others are hesitant due to significant home price appreciation in their markets and growing new home inventory from competitors. CFO Martin Connor added that 26% of buyers paying all cash mitigates rate sensitivity.

Trevor Allinson requested more detail on the strong demand seen in the first six weeks of Q1, including traffic and absorption rates, and asked if the company needs to accelerate lot acquisition given its outlook.

Answer

Executive Chairman and CEO Douglas Yearley reported that Q1 sales are trending better than the typical seasonal decline, projecting about 2 contracts per community per month. He also stated there is no need to accelerate lot acquisition, expressing pride in the company's capital-efficient land strategy and its progress toward a goal of 1.5 to 2 years of owned land supply, net of backlog.

Trevor Allinson from Wolfe Research LLC questioned if the combined company's home center exposure would change, asked about the preferred channel mix between dealers and builders, and inquired how the merger enhances competitiveness in a potential high-tariff environment.

Answer

MasterBrand President & CEO Dave Banyard emphasized that the merger brings more value to all channels and that the company intends to leverage its expanded dealer network to introduce American Woodmark products, noting this upside is not in the deal model. American Woodmark President & CEO Scott Culbreth added that maintaining customer relationships is a top priority and they see cross-selling opportunities. Regarding tariffs, Banyard stated that while both companies manage it well now, a consolidated approach will be more effective.

Trevor Allinson from Wolfe Research LLC questioned if the combined company's exposure to the home center channel would change, inquired about the go-forward strategy for dealer versus builder channels, and asked how the merger enhances competitiveness amid potential tariffs.

Answer

Dave Banyard, President & CEO of MasterBrand, responded that the merger brings more value to all channels and they intend to leverage the comprehensive portfolio to drive value. He highlighted the opportunity to introduce American Woodmark products into MasterBrand's extensive dealer network, noting these cross-selling opportunities are not yet in the deal model. Scott Culbreth, President & CEO of American Woodmark, added that maintaining customer relationships is a top priority. Regarding tariffs, Banyard stated that consolidation allows for a more effective, joint management of the tariff environment.

Trevor Allinson of Wolfe Research asked about the expected impact of the merger on the combined company's exposure to the home center channel, as well as the dealer versus builder channels, and how the combination enhances competitiveness against potential tariffs.

Answer

MasterBrand's President & CEO, Dave Banyard, explained that the merger brings more value to all channels and creates opportunities to cross-sell American Woodmark products through MasterBrand's extensive dealer network, an upside not built into the deal model. He also noted that a consolidated entity can manage the tariff environment more effectively. American Woodmark's CEO, Scott Culbreth, reinforced that maintaining customer relationships and finding cross-selling opportunities are top priorities.

Trevor Allinson of Wolfe Research questioned how the combined company's presence in the home center channel might change and whether there would be a strategic shift in the dealer versus builder channel mix. He also asked how the merger enhances competitiveness, particularly concerning potential tariffs.

Answer

MasterBrand CEO Dave Banyard emphasized that the merger brings more value to all channels and that the company intends to leverage its expanded dealer network to introduce American Woodmark products, viewing it as a compelling growth opportunity not factored into the deal model. American Woodmark CEO Scott Culbreth added that maintaining customer relationships is a top priority. Banyard also noted that a consolidated approach to managing tariffs will be more effective.

Trevor Allinson of Wolfe Research LLC asked about the balance between sales pace and gross margin, questioning if there is a minimum absorption rate LGIH would defend by increasing incentives. He also inquired about the drivers behind the improved sales trends seen in late June and July, asking whether it was due to lower interest rates or specific company actions.

Answer

Chairman & CEO Eric Lipar explained that the balance is analyzed on a community-by-community basis and that LGIH is increasing incentives on aged inventory, which is reflected in the lower Q3 margin guidance. He noted that profits from self-developed land help support margins. Lipar attributed the recent sales improvement to both a better rate environment and enhanced team efforts on lead follow-up, combined with targeted incentives.

Trevor Allinson questioned LGI Homes' confidence in accelerating its absorption pace to meet full-year closing targets after a slow Q1. He also asked about the pace-versus-price trade-off, wanting to know if the reduced margin guidance implies a floor for absorption pace that would be defended with heavier discounting if necessary.

Answer

CEO Eric Lipar expressed confidence in meeting the full-year guidance, citing a significant sales acceleration in March and a month-over-month increase in closings. Regarding the pace-price trade-off, Lipar highlighted that the wholesale channel, which represented 18% of Q1 closings at a lower margin, provides an additional lever to manage volume. He emphasized that underlying demand remains strong, with the primary challenge being buyer affordability and qualification.

Trevor Allinson questioned the 2025 gross margin guidance, which appears only modestly lower despite cost inflation, and asked about the lower absorption pace target after previous commentary suggested no slowdown.

Answer

CEO Eric Lipar explained that gross margins are expected to be similar year-over-year as the company plans to offset rising costs through price increases. He noted that the company's high percentage of self-developed lots helps maintain strong margins even with incentives of 5-6%. Regarding the slower absorption pace, Lipar cited a slower start to the year due to higher rates and the necessary ramp-up time for new sales staff in the 30% of new communities opened, viewing the guidance as conservative.

Trevor Allinson asked about LGI Homes' impressive gross margin performance and the rationale for raising full-year guidance amid a challenging incentive environment. He also inquired about the company's view on near-term demand, questioning if an improvement could occur in the spring selling season even if interest rates remain elevated.

Answer

CEO Eric Lipar attributed the strong margin performance to a disciplined 'pace versus price' strategy, prioritizing profitability over volume by avoiding wholesale price reductions. He clarified that while demand, measured by leads, remains strong, the primary headwind is entry-level affordability due to record-high average selling prices and elevated interest rates, which has effectively priced out households earning between $60,000 and $100,000. Lipar views this as a near-term dynamic rather than a permanent shift.

Trevor Allinson inquired about the company's confidence in its Q4 volume guidance and whether it increased its start pace to meet that target. He also asked for an update on incentive expectations for the remainder of the year.

Answer

CFO Glenn Keeler confirmed that Tri Pointe has sufficient move-in ready and spec homes to meet its Q4 guidance, with starts in place to support the numbers. CEO Douglas Bauer added that incentives, which were 7.1% in Q2, are expected to trend up slightly in the back half of the year, a factor already included in the gross margin guidance.

Trevor Allinson followed up on the pace versus price strategy, asking if the 2.5 absorption rate is a floor and how the company would react if demand softened further. He also inquired about April demand trends compared to March and any differences in demand by price point.

Answer

CEO Douglas Bauer described the 2.5 absorption pace as 'somewhat of a floor,' stating that while they might increase incentives if necessary, their premium locations afford them patience. President & COO Tom Mitchell added that he believes underlying demand remains strong, with buyers merely on a temporary 'pause.' EVP & CMO Linda Mamet noted that the second move-up and active adult segments, with paces of 3.2 and 3.4 respectively, are currently outperforming.

Trevor Allinson of Wolfe Research, LLC inquired about Forestar's Q3 gross margins, asking if the 21.1% rate, excluding a one-time community impact, is a sustainable run rate. He also questioned whether land development costs have started to decline or are merely stabilizing.

Answer

EVP, CFO & Treasurer James Allen explained that the quarter's margin was at the lower end of their typical 21% to 23% range primarily due to product mix, and the company sees no indication of reduced margins going forward. EVP & COO Mark Walker added that development costs are considered stable and flattish, with minor fluctuations across different categories.

Trevor Allinson of Wolfe Research, LLC inquired about Forestar's gross margins, asking if the 21.1% rate, excluding a one-time community closeout impact, should be considered the new run rate. He also asked if land development costs have started to decline or are merely stabilizing.

Answer

EVP, CFO & Treasurer James Allen explained that the 21.1% normalized margin was at the lower end of their historical 21% to 23% range, primarily due to product mix, and that the company sees no indication of reduced margins going forward. EVP & COO Mark Walker added that development costs are stable and flattish, not yet declining.

Trevor Allinson of Wolfe Research inquired about Forestar's Q3 gross margins, asking if the 21.1% rate, excluding a one-off community closeout, should be considered the new run rate. He also questioned whether land development costs have started to decline or are merely stabilizing.

Answer

EVP, CFO & Treasurer James Allen clarified that the Q3 margin was at the lower end of their historical 21% to 23% range primarily due to product mix, and there is no current indication of sustained lower margins. EVP & COO Mark Walker added that development costs are considered stable and flattish, with minor upward and downward movements in different cost categories balancing out.

Trevor Allinson of Wolfe Research inquired about Forestar's Q3 gross margins, asking if the ~21% rate, excluding a one-time community impact, is a sustainable run rate. He also questioned whether development costs have started to decline or are merely stabilizing.

Answer

EVP, CFO & Treasurer James Allen explained that the 21.1% normalized margin for the quarter was at the lower end of their historical 21-23% range, primarily due to product mix, and that the company sees no indication of reduced margins going forward. EVP & COO Mark Walker added that development costs have been stable and flattish for some time, with minor fluctuations in certain categories but no overall decline.

Trevor Allinson of Wolfe Research, LLC questioned the sensitivity of the lowered land and development spending plan to further demand weakness and whether the development portion would continue to rise. He also asked if competitors are pulling back more significantly, creating a market share opportunity, and how Forestar views increasing its sales to other builders.

Answer

Executive Chris Hibbetts explained the spending adjustment reflects both market conditions and a strong lot position, confirming they can moderate spend further or ramp up as needed. COO Mark Walker affirmed the market presents an opportunity to consolidate share with D.R. Horton and other builders. President and CEO Anthony Oxley added that they see a clear path to grow with D.R. Horton and have successfully expanded relationships with other new and repeat customers.

Trevor Allinson of Wolfe Research, LLC asked about land price trends in softer markets like Colorado, Texas, and Florida. He also inquired about the long-term timeline for Forestar to supply 30% of D.R. Horton's lots and requested clarification on the margin impact from an unusually high-margin project in the fourth quarter.

Answer

COO Mark Walker stated that land prices continue to grow in the low to mid-single digits year-over-year, even in softer markets. Executive Katie Smith suggested a five-year timeframe could be a reasonable target to reach the 30% supply goal for D.R. Horton, noting it will be a gradual process. CFO James Allen added that while a specific margin impact wasn't disclosed, the company's normalized gross margin is consistently in the 21.5% to 23% range.

Trevor Allinson of Wolfe Research LLC inquired about the specific tariff impacts embedded in the fiscal 2026 guidance, the drivers behind the sequential gross margin improvement, and whether the quarter's SG&A level is a sustainable run rate.

Answer

President & CEO Scott Culbreth explained that the guidance includes a potential $20 million tariff cost, with the range reflecting various recovery scenarios. He attributed the Q4 gross margin rebound to operational right-sizing after a soft Q3. He also clarified that Q4 SG&A is not a go-forward run rate due to lower incentive compensation, which is expected to increase in fiscal 2026.

Trevor Allinson inquired about the company's supply chain exposure to Mexico in light of potential tariffs and asked for an update on any new pricing actions following the previously announced increase in the dealer channel.

Answer

Executive M. Culbreth addressed the tariff question by highlighting the company's past success in mitigating Chinese tariffs and expressing confidence in their team's ability to adapt through resourcing or pricing adjustments. Regarding pricing, Culbreth confirmed no new increases had been implemented beyond the dealer channel hike effective October 1st, but noted that input costs are reviewed monthly to determine if further actions are necessary.

Trevor Allinson requested details on recent stock kitchen and bath awards, including their size and timing. He also asked about the level of input cost inflation embedded in the EBITDA guidance and sought clarification on the strategy to use new capacity to gain share.

Answer

Executive M. Culbreth disclosed the new business wins represent about $30 million in annualized net sales and are factored into the full-year outlook, with shipments beginning in the current quarter. He noted that input cost pressures are modeled into the guidance and will be offset by pricing. He clarified the capacity strategy is not about aggressive pricing but about communicating enhanced service capabilities to the market.

Trevor Allinson asked if pricing is a primary tool for offsetting tariff impacts in the Doors business and how the demand environment affects that decision.

Answer

CEO Brian Chambers responded that the primary focus is on supply chain optimization rather than price. He noted the largest impact is from retaliatory tariffs on doors shipped to Canada. The company is in active discussions with Canadian officials to have these tariffs rolled back, which would be the preferred solution over implementing price increases.

Trevor Allinson sought clarity on the outlook for core Roofing margins in 2025, considering price increase carryover, cost inflation, and other potential offsets.

Answer

CEO Brian Chambers confirmed that the Roofing segment is set up for another strong year. Positive pricing from 2024 carryover and a new April increase should be beneficial, though offset by some cost inflation and maintenance investments. He noted the primary headwind in Q1 is lower components volume due to a tough year-over-year comparison, but underlying demand and attachment rates remain stable.

Trevor Allinson from Wolfe Research asked why ARMA market shipments were stronger than anticipated and what constrained Owens Corning's own volumes from similarly outperforming, questioning the company's capacity ahead of the new Medina line.

Answer

CEO Brian Chambers attributed the stronger market to incremental storm demand and favorable weather. He confirmed that Owens Corning's volumes did slightly outperform the market but were ultimately constrained by laminate capacity. He reiterated that the company is making significant investments to increase this capacity to meet strong demand for its products, with the Medina laminator being a key part of that expansion.

Trevor Allinson of Wolfe Research, LLC inquired about the company's confidence in offsetting the previously guided $50 million of non-tariff cost inflation and requested an update on where the EBITDA impact from the Towanda divestiture is tracking within its initial $25 million to $50 million range.

Answer

CFO Samantha Stoddard confirmed that $50 million remains a good estimate for non-tariff inflation but expects the company to be 'slightly price cost negative' for the year due to the challenging and competitive demand environment. On the Towanda divestiture, she indicated that the financial impact is trending 'slightly more towards the higher end' of the previously communicated negative impact range.

Trevor Allinson from Wolfe Research questioned the flexibility of the 2025 CapEx plan in different volume scenarios and asked about the revenue lag for multifamily projects and whether that end market is nearing a bottom.

Answer

CEO William Christensen indicated the 2025 CapEx plan is unlikely to change significantly, as many projects have long lead times and the organization is already operating at a high cadence of investment. He explained the lag from a multifamily start to JELD-WEN's revenue is 6-9 months and that while they are building a project pipeline for H2 2025, a market turn has not yet occurred.

Trevor Allinson from Wolfe Research, LLC sought clarification on the $525 million annualized tariff impact, asking if it assumes current China exposure or the future target of 10% of COGS. He also inquired about the costs and primary destinations for relocating the supply chain. Additionally, he asked if the strategy would change if China tariffs were reduced and questioned the outlook for the company's business within China.

Answer

President of Security and Connected Products, David Barry, clarified the $525 million figure is an unmitigated number before any supply chain moves and that related investments are primarily capital expenditures within the existing forecast. CEO Nicholas Fink stated the strategic direction towards regionalization and a hyperflexible supply chain is set, regardless of specific tariff rates. Regarding the business in China, Fink described it as a 'China for China' closed-loop system, while Barry noted that the most challenging year-over-year comparisons are now complete, expecting more stability ahead.

Trevor Allinson asked for more detail on the impact from non-compliant product competition and inquired about the outlook for the China market, questioning if it is nearing a bottom.

Answer

CEO Nicholas Fink explained the competition issue involves imported products, like fire safes that fail quickly, making false performance claims. He noted that new marketing collateral highlighting these differences is already turning POS trends positive. Regarding China, Fink described the market as unprecedentedly soft and stated the company will not bet on a bottom. Instead, the focus is on tightly managing the now-small, but profitable, business, preserving it as a future growth option with minimal bottom-line risk.

Trevor Allinson of Wolfe Research asked about the difference in the 2025 gross margin outlook, which was previously guided around 25% but is now starting lower. He also inquired about expectations for SG&A leverage in 2025, given the higher-than-expected Q4 result.

Answer

EVP & CFO Russ Devendorf attributed the lower margin outlook to increased use of incentives in Q4 and early 2025, a response to rising interest rates that countered earlier expectations. Regarding SG&A, he explained the Q4 figure was elevated by over 100 basis points due to higher bonus accruals from outperformance, and he expects SG&A to trend down and show leverage in 2025 as the company grows its top line.

Asked about SG&A expenses, noting the 2025 guidance appears to be above the 17% of sales target, and questioned what is needed to return to that level.

Answer

Executives confirmed that the current SG&A level is elevated due to ongoing investments in new greenfields and the need to digest recent acquisitions. As these investments mature, the SG&A percentage is expected to decrease. For the coming year, they anticipate about $60 million in additional expense from M&A and greenfields but still expect to achieve leverage in the existing business through productivity initiatives.

Asked why guided EBITDA margin expansion is below the typical target and requested quantification of the inflationary impact and pricing response for the Scranton Products business.

Answer

The lower margin expansion guidance is a result of a combination of factors: lower-than-ideal sales growth, temporary costs from new product/facility ramps, and headwinds in the Scranton business. The Scranton margin pressure is due to a change in material sourcing post-divestiture, which will be offset by a low single-digit price increase that takes effect in the second half of the year.

Trevor Allinson from Wolfe Research asked about the company's strategy for managing its higher-than-usual finished spec inventory and questioned the recent trends and future expectations for construction cycle times.

Answer

CEO Ryan Marshall confirmed that PulteGroup began pulling back on its start rate in Q4 and will continue to align starts with the sales environment to reduce spec inventory to its target range. Incoming CFO James Ossowski stated that cycle time was 111 days in Q4, with most single-family operations already at pre-COVID levels, and the company still expects to reach an average of 100 days in the first half of 2025.

Trevor Allinson asked if achieving the 5-10% annual growth target in 2025 would require a significant improvement in backlog conversion rates and what would drive it. He also questioned the current finished spec inventory level of 1.4 per community, which is above the long-term target.

Answer

President and CEO Ryan Marshall explained that backlog conversion is influenced by both improving cycle times and the level of spec sales, which close quickly and don't always sit in backlog. He suggested total homes in production is a better indicator of future closing volume. He also noted that in the current environment, a higher spec level (42% of WIP) is desirable, and while 1.4 finished specs per community is above the old target, it is not a concern given over 50% of sales are specs.

Trevor Allinson asked if Lennar expects to receive cost concessions from its trade partners and suppliers in 2025, given the pressure on gross margins. He also inquired about the company's comfort level with its current completed inventory and its view on inventory levels across its markets.

Answer

Co-CEO and President Jonathan Jaffe confirmed that Lennar continuously works with its supply chain to find efficiencies and reduce costs, enabled by its consistent, predictable volume. Executive Chairman Stuart Miller stated that while their completed inventory of two homes per community is at the high end of their historical range, they are comfortable with this level strategically to serve immediate-need buyers. Jaffe added that 80% of this inventory is less than 90 days old.

Asked about the drivers of strong SG&A performance, specifically changes in broker usage post-NAR settlement. He also inquired about the company's view on potential government down-payment assistance programs and their impact on demand.

Answer

The company's strategy is to reduce transaction costs, including broker commissions where possible, to improve affordability for buyers, using their digital marketing to drive traffic. Regarding housing policy, they see down payments as a significant hurdle and are encouraged by the national discussion on housing affordability, but caution that any new programs must be carefully balanced to avoid past mistakes and inflationary pressure.

Trevor Allinson asked about the drivers of strong SG&A control, particularly the lower broker costs, and inquired about Lennar's strategy regarding realtors post-NAR settlement. He also sought Stuart Miller's perspective on proposed down-payment assistance programs and their potential impact on housing demand.

Answer

Executive Chairman Stuart Miller explained that Lennar's strategy is to reduce transaction costs to improve affordability, which includes lowering realtor commissions where possible by leveraging its own digital marketing platform. On housing policy, Miller confirmed that down payments are a significant hurdle for buyers. While he is encouraged that the housing shortage is receiving national attention, he cautioned that any new programs must be balanced to avoid the risks of past 'no down payment' scenarios and potential inflationary pressures.

Trevor Allinson asked about the drivers of strong SG&A control, particularly lower broker costs post-NAR settlement, and sought commentary on the potential impact of proposed down-payment assistance programs amid the election cycle.

Answer

Executive Chairman Stuart Miller explained that Lennar's focus is on removing unnecessary costs, like certain realtor fees, to improve affordability, leveraging its digital marketing to maintain volume. On housing policy, Miller acknowledged down payments are a hurdle but cautioned that any assistance program must be balanced to avoid past mistakes and inflationary pressure, noting he is encouraged that housing supply is now a national topic.