Trevor Young

Trevor Young sought clarification on the $200 million investment in new businesses and requested a breakdown of the newly defined "Nights and Seats Booked" metric.

Answer

CFO Ellie Mertz clarified that the $200 million figure is a refined estimate for its investment in Services and Experiences, not a change in strategy. Regarding the new metric, she stated that the contribution from 'seats' booked is currently "immaterial" but the company is investing to make it a material contributor over time. A specific breakout was not provided.

Trevor Young asked for an expansion on Shopify Campaigns, including merchant onboarding, economic model, and the projected revenue opportunity from this initiative over the coming years.

Answer

Harley Finkelstein, Shopify's President, explained that Shopify Campaigns address merchant customer acquisition challenges by running commerce-native performance ads. He noted a strategy to reinvest gains back into growth, highlighting a 9x year-over-year increase in merchant budget commitments and a 4x year-over-year growth in merchant adoption of campaigns from Q3 2024 to Q3 2025. Finkelstein also mentioned product enhancements like a new gross sales objective and AI-powered ranking improvements, aiming to build a scaled, ROI-positive ad engine for merchants.

Trevor Young requested more information on Shopify Campaigns, including how merchants are onboarded, the economics involved, and the projected revenue opportunity from this initiative over the next few years.

Answer

Harley Finkelstein, President of Shopify, explained that Shopify Campaigns aims to solve customer acquisition by running commerce-native performance ads across high-intent services. He noted a 9x year-over-year increase in merchant budget commitments and a 4x year-over-year growth in merchant adoption of campaigns in Q3. Finkelstein highlighted product improvements like gross sales as a new objective and AI-powered ranking, emphasizing the goal to build an ROI-positive ad engine that drives buyers and brand discovery.

Trevor Young of Barclays asked how the stated comfort with a high-teens free cash flow margin aligns with previous commentary about optimizing marketing spend.

Answer

CFO Jeff Hoffmeister clarified that there is no change in the marketing strategy or its payback guardrails. The decision to maintain the current FCF margin profile is a proactive choice to reinvest incremental dollars across the business for long-term growth—not just into marketing—in areas like R&D, product development, and international expansion.

Trevor Young asked about the seasonal dynamics for Net Yield on Managed Operations (NYMO), expectations for Q4 versus Q1, and potential future pressure on NYMO from credit card issuance in Argentina and higher funding costs, even as older cohorts become profitable.

Answer

President of FinTech Osvaldo Gimenez explained that recent NYMO changes are primarily due to mix, with a reduction in overall credit NYMO from Argentina driven by increased funding costs. He noted Brazil's credit card portfolio is nearing profitability, while Mexico is further behind. Argentina is just starting credit card issuance, implying several years of investment. Incoming CEO Ariel Szarfsztejn added that Q4 typically sees slightly better seasonality for collections than Q1, but mix is the primary driver of fluctuations.

Trevor Young asked about the expected seasonal dynamics for NIMAL (Net Interest Margin on Loans) in coming quarters (4Q up, 1Q down) and whether NIMAL would remain pressured next year due to new credit card issuance in Argentina and higher funding costs, despite older cohorts becoming profitable.

Answer

MercadoLibre President of FinTech Osvaldo Gimenez explained that recent NIMAL reductions were primarily due to increased funding costs and market instability in Argentina, with other regions performing similarly. He noted that Brazil's credit card portfolio is nearing profitability as older cohorts mature, but Mexico, having started later, still has a smaller proportion of older, profitable cohorts. Argentina, with its recent launch, will require several years of investment. Incoming CEO Ariel Szarfsztejn added that while there's typical seasonality (Q4 stronger, Q1 weaker), recent fluctuations are more mix-related.

Trevor Young from Barclays Capital sought clarification on whether the entire credit card business has reached Net Interest Margin After Losses (NIMAL) breakeven and if it's expected to remain positive.

Answer

Osvaldo Giménez, Fintech President, clarified that NIMAL is breakeven and positive in Brazil, their largest and most mature credit card market. However, this is not yet the case in Mexico. He added that when they eventually launch in Argentina, the business will initially be NIMAL-negative before reaching breakeven over a few years.

Trevor Young asked about Booking Holdings' outlook on competitive intensity over the next two to three years, considering the aspirations of a major Asia player in Europe, an accommodation competitor's push into traditional hotels and adjacencies, and the emergence of AI tools as a new consumer channel. He also asked how the company is evolving its strategy to better position itself in this environment.

Answer

Glenn Fogel, CEO and President, acknowledged the consistently high competitive intensity in the travel industry, citing past and present competitors. He viewed AI as both a competitive threat and a significant benefit, providing a net competitive advantage due to Booking Holdings' scale, data, and engineering talent. Fogel emphasized the company's strategy of continuous improvement, adapting to new technologies like mobile and AI, and leveraging its scale, proprietary data, vast customer and partner base, and expansion into verticals like insurance and advertising opportunities. He expressed optimism, seeing the current environment as an exciting opportunity to accelerate growth by integrating all these elements.

Trevor Young asked how Google's AI Overviews are impacting traffic and about the guardrails ZipRecruiter has in place to ensure its own AI hiring tools comply with regulations, referencing recent lawsuits against other platforms.

Answer

CEO Ian Siegel stated that AI Overviews have been a net positive, acting as a tailwind driving high-intent job seeker traffic. Regarding compliance, he affirmed that ZipRecruiter has a long history of deploying AI thoughtfully with robust guardrails and legal review, and he does not see recent industry lawsuits as a risk to the company.

Trevor Young asked if ZipRecruiter is observing any changes in employer behavior indicative of increased hiring hesitancy, such as longer hiring cycles, and whether new opportunities are emerging to deploy marketing dollars as competitors pull back.

Answer

President David Travers noted that while employers have been taking slightly longer to hire since the peak of the 'great resignation,' this is not a recent change tied to the current macro outlook. Co-Founder and CEO Ian Siegel added that while some competitors have pulled back on advertising, ZipRecruiter's performance is more reflective of the overall market's appetite for hiring rather than shifts in competitive ad spend.

Trevor Young asked for clarification on the full-year outlook, specifically if a downside scenario with further market deterioration would result in higher adjusted EBITDA margins than the mid-single-digit forecast for the recovery scenario. He also inquired about the company's direct and indirect exposure to government hiring.

Answer

CFO Tim Yarbrough confirmed that in a downside scenario, ZipRecruiter would adjust operating expenses and generate higher adjusted EBITDA margins, consistent with its disciplined approach of pulling back on investment during periods of softness. President David Travers addressed government hiring, stating it is not an outsized driver for the business, as their marketplace generally reflects the U.S. economy but skews toward SMBs rather than large federal agencies.

Trevor Young questioned if the .co registry change signaled a strategic shift, why margin improvement appears to slow in the back half of the year, and what is driving the increased free cash flow guidance.

Answer

CFO Mark McCaffrey stated the .co registry decision was a one-off based on profitability metrics, not a change in philosophy. He explained that second-half margin expansion faces tougher comparisons but the company remains on track for its 33% exit rate target. The raised free cash flow guidance is driven by strong bookings and high-value cohorts, reflecting operational strength rather than working capital changes.

Trevor Young questioned what factors are needed to return to customer growth later in the year and asked about the drivers behind the continued gross margin expansion.

Answer

CFO Mark McCaffrey clarified that the primary strategy is attracting high-intent customers, not pursuing customer growth for its own sake. He stated that the expected return to positive customer growth later in the year is mainly a function of lapping previous divestitures and brand rationalization actions. He attributed the gross margin expansion to a favorable product mix, noting the margin typically fluctuates around 64% and is not driven by specific cost-saving measures.

Trevor Young questioned the 2025 EBITDA margin guidance, asking why the full-year forecast of 100 bps expansion is lower than the 200 bps guided for Q1, especially with marketing spend concentrated early in the year.

Answer

CFO Mark McCaffrey explained that significant margin benefits from infrastructure simplification were front-loaded in the prior year. The 2025 expansion is primarily driven by the favorable mix shift to the Applications & Commerce segment, balanced against strategic investments in marketing and product innovation, keeping them on track for their 33% target in 2026.

Trevor Young asked for details on the expansion of the pricing and bundling initiative into the Core Platform segment and questioned the cause of the significant growth slowdown in the aftermarket business during Q3.

Answer

CEO Aman Bhutani explained that the company's data-driven pricing and bundling methodology will be applied to new customer cohorts with products in the Core Platform. CFO Mark McCaffrey addressed the aftermarket, describing it as an inherently volatile business and attributing the quarterly slowdown to pressure on lower-level valuations, while maintaining the long-term view of it being a low single-digit grower.

Trevor Young questioned if Wix is shifting its focus from margin expansion towards reinvesting for growth. He also asked about capital allocation, specifically the decision to repay convertible debt with cash rather than refinancing to preserve liquidity.

Answer

President & COO Nir Zohar and CFO Lior Shemesh affirmed that Wix can invest in growth while maintaining similar margins, noting Base44 is a profitable business and that AI costs are expected to decline. Lior Shemesh confirmed the plan is to repay the convertible notes with cash on hand, stating that the company has other means to raise capital in the future if necessary.

Trevor Young inquired about the free cash flow margin breakdown between the Self-Creator and Partner segments and asked for details on the strategy to invest in Self-Creator growth while simultaneously expanding its margins.

Answer

CFO Lior Shemesh explained that while specific margin breakdowns aren't disclosed, the Self-Creator segment is highly profitable (above 30% FCF margin) and the Partner segment's profitability is improving, with long-term potential to exceed Self-Creators. He confirmed the plan to expand margins in 2025 through a combination of new product innovation and better market demand, which will drive higher growth without a proportional increase in costs.

Trevor Young inquired how the evolving tariff situation is influencing investment in owned brands, the potential pace of owned brand mix expansion, and the related inventory implications.

Answer

Co-Founder & Co-CEO Michael Mente explained that tariff stability provides more confidence to invest in new owned brand launches, particularly at higher price points. He anticipates a steady, managed increase in owned brand inventory and highlighted the synergistic role of physical stores in accelerating this initiative.

Trevor Young asked for the growth differential between U.S. and international sales in April, whether the weakness in Canada has persisted, and for more specific details on the China sourcing mix for third-party brands.

Answer

CFO Jesse Timmermans confirmed international growth outpaced the U.S. in April but did not provide specific figures. Co-CEO Michael Karanikolas added that the negative sentiment and impact in the Canadian market are continuing. Regarding sourcing, management reiterated that the China mix for third-party goods is 'meaningfully lower' than for direct imports but did not quantify it further.

Trevor Young of Barclays asked for clarification on whether the 'low double-digit' growth in October was a deceleration from September's exit rate and also inquired about the company's current appetite for M&A.

Answer

CFO Jesse Timmermans described the October growth rate as being in the "same zone" as the Q3 exit rate, not a deceleration, but reiterated caution for the rest of the quarter. Co-CEO Michael Karanikolas confirmed that Revolve is always actively considering strategic and financially sound M&A opportunities and will act if the right one emerges.

Trevor Young asked to quantify the GMS wins from the recent strategic shift in Q2 and Q3, and how much of the previously foregone GMS from last year could be recovered.

Answer

CFO Lanny Baker stated that the company expects to recover the opportunity cost from last year's strategic shift by the end of 2025. He confirmed that the velocity and size of experiment wins are now back to historically consistent levels, highlighting PLA segmentation and paid social efficacy as key successes, but declined to provide specific GMS impact figures.

Trevor Young from Barclays asked about Expedia's strategy for the experiences and attractions category and whether it's an increasing area of investment. He also requested more details on the recent employment actions, including the number of employees impacted and the expected cost savings.

Answer

CFO Scott Schenkel detailed that restructuring affected approximately 4% of employees and 7% of contractors, with expected net EBITDA savings of $75 million over the next three quarters, some of which will be reinvested. CEO Ariane Gorin positioned activities as a key 'attach' opportunity for Brand Expedia but did not announce any specific new large-scale investment in the category.

Trevor Young asked for more detail on the strategy of partnering in AI, including its potential as a customer acquisition channel. He also inquired if the potential acquisition of Despegar alters Expedia's outlook for Latin America.

Answer

CEO Ariane Gorin outlined a three-pronged AI strategy: 1) enhancing their own products for travelers and partners, 2) ensuring brand presence in new GenAI-native search experiences, and 3) potentially powering new AI travel startups through partnerships. Regarding Latin America, she stated the Despegar situation does not change their perspective, emphasizing that Despegar is a great partner and that Expedia maintains its own brands and other partnerships in the region.

Trevor Young asked for details on the cadence of Vrbo's growth during the third quarter and whether it remained positive in October despite hurricane impacts. He also asked CEO Ariane Gorin to reflect on her first six months in the role, highlighting any positive surprises and unexpected challenges.

Answer

CFO Julie Whalen confirmed that Vrbo's growth accelerated through the quarter, with 'incredible acceleration' after July, but declined to provide specific monthly comps. CEO Ariane Gorin shared that a positive surprise has been the strong brand love for Expedia, Hotels.com, and Vrbo. A challenge has been the work required to connect the new tech platform's capabilities to the brand value propositions of Hotels.com and Vrbo, though she noted the organization is responding quickly.

Trevor Young from Barclays asked about the trade-off between Viator's profitable third-party distribution and building brand awareness amidst growing competition. He also requested key learnings from the company's recent AI partnerships.

Answer

CFO Mike Noonan described the third-party channel as highly incremental and additive, helping to fuel scale while the Viator point-of-sale remains the largest channel. CEO Matt Goldberg detailed AI partnership learnings: understanding LLM-based SEO with Perplexity, exploring agentic AI with OpenAI, multimodal interfaces with Amazon Alexa, and data valuation with Microsoft Azure, all to lay a foundation for future value creation.

Trevor Young questioned why Tripadvisor is not investing more aggressively to accelerate Viator's top-line growth instead of focusing on doubling EBITDA dollars. He also requested details on AI partnerships with Perplexity and OpenAI, including economics and strategy.

Answer

CFO Mike Noonan responded that the company is making efficient decisions to maximize growth, and that the margin progression is a natural result of the business model as repeat customers are acquired more cheaply. CEO Matt Goldberg added that AI partnerships are a key strategy to access incremental, high-intent traffic. He described the Perplexity deal as a long-term strategic play focused on traffic and revenue sharing, rather than short-term licensing fees, and confirmed collaborations with OpenAI to stay positioned for emerging agentic AI.

Trevor Young questioned the impact of a large competitor scaling in the U.S. experiences market on Viator's performance and inquired about the potential investment required to expand internationally and its effect on Viator's margins.

Answer

CEO Matt Goldberg acknowledged that increased competition helps grow category awareness, benefiting all players. He stressed Tripadvisor's disciplined approach, leveraging its strong brand and operator base. On international expansion, Goldberg called it a key opportunity, especially given Brand Tripadvisor's large non-U.S. traffic, but said it's too early to detail 2025 investment levels. CFO Mike Noonan added that data would guide supply build-out in regions like EMEA.

Trevor Young sought clarification on the expected quarterly cadence of net active customer additions in 2025 and asked for details on what is driving the higher capital expenditure guidance for the upcoming year.

Answer

Executive David Reeder confirmed the outlook for low single-digit active customer growth in 2025 and suggested the absolute number of net additions would be broadly consistent throughout the year. He explained that the incremental capital expenditures in the 2025 forecast are primarily allocated to growth in the healthcare business, including investments to support pharmacy demand and the continued expansion of Chewy Vet Care clinics.

Trevor Young of Barclays inquired about the contribution of the Canadian market to the recent improvement in net customer additions and asked about the current split of orders between mobile web and the mobile app.

Answer

CEO Sumit Singh clarified that Canada's contribution to net adds was immaterial. He attributed the growth to improved acquisition of new-to-Chewy customers, enhanced reactivation through new CRM capabilities, and better retention from an improved post-purchase experience. While declining to provide a specific split, he confirmed Chewy has the ability to funnel mobile web users to the app.

Trevor Young asked for quantification of the revenue and EBITDA contribution from the Formation Nation acquisition in the fiscal 2025 guidance and how to model it. He also questioned how to reconcile potential pricing changes with the full-year 5% revenue growth forecast.

Answer

COO & CFO Noel Watson stated that Formation Nation's impact is included in the full-year guidance, but a separate breakout is difficult as they are integrating quickly to shift the acquired business toward a subscription model, making the performance blended. CEO Jeffrey Stibel added that the guide is built on a conservative approach focused on achieving double-digit subscription growth, which provides levers for pricing changes without being overly aggressive in the forecast.

Trevor Young of Barclays asked about the impact of new U.S. rules on connected cars from China, the expected model mix within the 30-35% volume growth target, and the OpEx implications of shifting to an active selling strategy.

Answer

CEO Michael Lohscheller assured that Polestar will comply with the new U.S. legislation, effective for model year '27, and will develop solutions to maintain its presence in the important U.S. market. He projected that the Polestar 3 and 4 would account for 60-65% or more of future sales. Lohscheller also clarified that while the new retail model adds margin costs, it is not a substantial increase and remains highly cost-efficient compared to traditional dealer networks.

Representing Dan Levy, Trevor Young asked for a quantification of the gross profit benefit from an impairment release and revenue normalization, the sales trend of Polestar 4 in China, benefits from the Geely partnership, and the sustainability of working capital improvements during a new model ramp-up.

Answer

CFO Per Ansgar explained that Q2 gross margin was impacted by several factors, including a benefit from a prior inventory impairment and some revenue timing, offset by new impairments and higher amortization costs shifting from R&D to COGS. He noted the China market is tough but Polestar is balancing volume and margins for the Polestar 4. On working capital, he expressed confidence in maintaining leanness by shortening lead times through local production and process efficiencies, supported by undrawn trade financing facilities.

Trevor Young, on for Dan Levy, asked if there have been changes in customer interest for advanced products due to competitive pressure from Tesla, particularly after its robotaxi day. He also requested a directional sense of how 2025 SuperVision volumes might trend from the Q4 2024 run rate.

Answer

CEO Amnon Shashua noted that events like Tesla's robotaxi day reinforce the robotaxi vision and shine a light on Mobileye's own production-intent programs with partners like Volkswagen. An executive, likely Nimrod Nehushtan, added that OEMs see Mobileye as a leading candidate to help them compete. Regarding 2025 SuperVision volumes, Daniel Galves suggested the Q4 run rate is a good starting point but noted that visibility remains low due to market volatility.

Trevor Young, on for Dan Levy from Barclays, asked for the timeframe of the expected 10-point market share shift in China and whether a faster shift would require new capacity. He also inquired about the recent trend in corporate EBIT.

Answer

CFO Jason Cardew confirmed the 10-point share shift to domestic OEMs in China is expected between now and 2027. He explained that while some existing capacity could be repurposed, new capital expenditures might be necessary depending on the location of new customer plants. Regarding corporate costs, he noted the full-year guidance implies a slight increase in Q4 after a lower Q3, but the overall run-rate is expected to remain relatively stable.

Trevor Young requested a breakdown of the 4% growth over market among pricing, launches, and mix. He also asked about the opportunity difference between vehicles exported from China versus those from Chinese OEMs' international plants.

Answer

CFO Fredrik Westin acknowledged pricing is a key component of the outperformance but declined to provide a specific breakdown. CEO Mikael Bratt stated there is no significant difference in opportunity or content, as a premium vehicle remains a premium vehicle regardless of where it is manufactured.