Tristan Gresser

Tristan Gresser from BNP Paribas asked about the confidence in the expected $2 billion working capital release in Q4, its drivers, and the risk of reducing inventories too much before a potential Q1 recovery. He also inquired about the impact of CBAM uncertainty on European order books and the possibility of earlier implementation of new European quotas.

Answer

Genuino Christino (CFO) expressed high confidence in the Q4 working capital release, attributing it to seasonality, normalization of payables, and specific one-offs, while assuring that inventory levels would not be excessively squeezed. He noted that CBAM, effective January 1st, should make imports less competitive, and while challenging, there is hope for earlier implementation of new European trade measures. Order books in Europe remain relatively stable, reflecting sideways demand.

Tristan Gresser asked about ArcelorMittal's confidence in the expected $2 billion working capital release in Q4, its drivers, and potential risks of over-reducing inventories. He also questioned the timing of new European quotas, the Q1 market environment, and the impact of CBAM uncertainty on European order books.

Answer

CFO Genuino Christino expressed high confidence in the seasonal Q4 working capital release, driven by fewer working days and normalization of payables/raw materials, emphasizing a focus on receivables over inventories. He noted hope for earlier implementation of European trade measures and confirmed CBAM's effectiveness from January 1st, making imports less competitive, while European order books remain stable.

Tristan Gresser inquired about the company's view on potential capacity restructuring in China and the likelihood of the European Commission enacting significant import quota cuts.

Answer

Head of IR Daniel Fairclough stated that while Chinese statements on reform are encouraging, elevated exports remain a concern, reinforcing the need for other regions to 'ring fence' their industries. EVP & CFO Genuino Christino commented on EU policy, noting that while they are engaged with authorities and some member states are supportive, they must wait for the final legislation to be revealed after the summer.

Tristan Gresser of Exane inquired about ArcelorMittal's view on potential steel capacity cuts in China and the likelihood of the European Commission implementing significant import quota reductions.

Answer

Head of IR Daniel Fairclough acknowledged encouraging signals on Chinese capacity reform but emphasized the need for other regions to implement 'ring-fencing' trade measures regardless. EVP & CFO Genuino Christino stated that while the company is advocating for stricter EU import quotas, the final outcome of the Commission's review remains uncertain and is expected after the summer.

Tristan Gresser from BNP Paribas Exane questioned how all planned European decarbonization projects could fit within the stated $4.5-$5 billion CapEx envelope. He also asked about a scenario where the Nippon Steel/U.S. Steel deal is cleared, and whether Nippon could then back out of selling its Calvert stake to ArcelorMittal.

Answer

Group CFO Genuino Christino stated that the large decarbonization projects will happen gradually over decades, not all at once, which gives him confidence they can be accommodated within the existing CapEx envelope once the right policy conditions are in place. Regarding the Calvert stake, Christino declined to speculate on the outcome of the Nippon Steel/U.S. Steel deal review, stating the company would wait and see.

Tristan Gresser asked about delays in strategic projects, the status of the Texas HBI expansion, the scope of the Calvert investment, necessary policy actions in Europe, and the situation in South Africa.

Answer

CEO Aditya Mittal attributed project delays to equipment supply and a lack of recent large-scale project experience in Europe, noting a new global team was formed to improve execution. He confirmed the Texas HBI project is not in the medium-term pipeline, with focus shifted to Calvert. Regarding Europe, he stressed the need for action on trade and CBAM policy for competitiveness and decarbonization. For South Africa, he and CFO Genuino Christino confirmed the decision to shut down the uncompetitive long products business due to a scrap market imbalance.

Tristan Gresser asked for clarification on the Q3 guidance, specifically the restart time for the Mexico blast furnace and the outlook for the division including Ukraine and South Africa. He also questioned if the European forecast implies restocking and sought details on the company's advocacy for strengthening the CBAM.

Answer

Group CFO Genuino Christino explained that the Mexico blast furnace restart will take about two months. He noted that Ukraine was EBITDA-positive in Q2 despite ongoing challenges. On the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), he emphasized its importance and the need for improvements, such as export rebates and broader product coverage, to ensure the European industry's competitiveness.

Tristan Gresser asked about the specific pockets of weakness that contribute to Nucor's stable demand outlook for next year despite structural tailwinds, the outlook for steel mill shipment volumes, and the performance and targets for the steel products segment and 'expand beyond' initiatives.

Answer

Leon Topalian (Chair, President, and CEO) identified heavy equipment/agriculture, residential construction, and autos as areas expected to be flat or down in 2026, contributing to the stable outlook. He expressed strong optimism for Nucor's future, citing significant earnings power from new projects and long-term investments, suggesting upside to forecasts. For steel products, Leon Topalian detailed the timing of new towers facilities (Indiana mid-2026, Utah end of 2026), highlighting their advanced automation. He noted the products group's strong performance (30-40% of Nucor's net earnings), rising backlogs, and stabilizing pricing. John Hollatz (Executive Vice President) confirmed Joist and Deck order entry matching backlog pricing and reiterated the long-term $700 million EBITDA target for 'expand beyond'.

Tristan Gresser of BNP Paribas asked if any tariff-related raw material costs impacted Q2 results, sought quantification of the new tax legislation's benefits, and inquired about the significant working capital build in the first half of the year.

Answer

President and CEO Leon Topalian confirmed no tariff-led costs were seen in Q2 and highlighted future opportunities from the new legislation in defense, shipbuilding, and border wall funding. CFO Stephen Laxton explained that the Q2 working capital build of over $620 million was a primary use of cash but sets the stage for a 'dramatic change' to positive free cash flow in the second half of the year, aided by lower capital spending.

Tristan Gresser of BNP Paribas inquired about tariff-related costs in Q2, the potential benefits from new tax legislation, and the outlook for working capital and free cash flow in the second half of the year.

Answer

CEO Leon Topalian confirmed no tariff-led costs in Q2 and highlighted significant opportunities from the new legislation in defense, infrastructure, and reshoring. CFO Stephen Laxton explained that a large working capital build suppressed H1 free cash flow but expects a strong positive reversal in H2, aided by lower capital spending.

Tristan Gresser from BNP Paribas asked about Nucor's discussions with the U.S. administration regarding raw material tariffs and inquired about the West Virginia project's budget increase and spending.

Answer

CEO Leon Topalian affirmed that Nucor actively engages with the administration to provide information on relevant issues. Regarding West Virginia, EVP Noah Hanners stated the project is 40-50% complete and on schedule. Topalian attributed the budget increase to broad inflationary pressures, and CFO Stephen Laxton added that over half the project's budget has been spent.

Tristan Gresser inquired about discussions with the U.S. administration on tariff removal and the CapEx budget for West Virginia.

Answer

CEO Leon Topalian discussed Nucor's advocacy role. EVP Noah Hanners provided updates on the West Virginia project. EVP John Hollatz discussed CapEx.

Tristan Gresser asked about Nucor's potential interest in U.S. Steel assets and its broader sheet strategy. He also inquired about the Section 232 review, specifically if quota deals should be scrapped, and about the plate consumption of new tower facilities.

Answer

CEO Leon Topalian reiterated that any M&A would be subject to a disciplined valuation strategy. He described the sheet strategy as focused on higher-value products for key markets, like the Midwest, via the new West Virginia mill. He believes all trade deals will be re-evaluated. Executive D. Utermark (Chad) confirmed the new tower facilities will consume over 130,000 tons of plate annually.

Tristan Gresser sought clarification on the Q4 guidance, asking if the 'meaningful contraction' in earnings could push Steel Mills' EBITDA per ton below COVID-era levels and if the Steel Products segment could fall short of its 15% EBITDA margin target. He also asked about the potential for U.S. carbon-based tariffs in 2025.

Answer

CFO Steve Laxton characterized the Q4 outlook as a continuation of recent moderation, highlighting that $168 million in unadjusted start-up costs are pressuring Steel Mill segment results. On trade, CEO Leon Topalian affirmed his belief that there is room for carbon-based tariffs to level the playing field, with executive Greg Murphy adding that Nucor supports the ITC's data gathering to ensure any policy is based on transparent data.

Tristan Gresser of Exane BNP Paribas asked about the market environment for the aluminum ramp-up, potential exposure to pig iron tariffs from Brazil, and whether the current Section 232 tariff regime is more durable than in the past.

Answer

Chairman & CEO Mark Millett described the aluminum market as highly positive due to supply deficits and tariffs, and expressed confidence that trade policy will lead to a better long-term environment. President & COO Barry Schneider noted that while pig iron tariffs are a concern, the company has a diversified supply chain and can manage its metallic mix to mitigate impacts.

Tristan Gresser of Exane BNP Paribas asked about the market environment for the new aluminum facility, potential pig iron tariff impacts from Brazil, and the long-term durability of Section 232 tariffs.

Answer

CEO Mark Millett described the aluminum market as even more positive due to supply deficits and tariffs, and expressed confidence in a better long-term trade environment post-USMCA renegotiations. COO Barry Schneider detailed mitigation strategies for potential pig iron tariffs, emphasizing their flexible metallic sourcing and captive scrap supply. CFO Theresa Wagler added that their aluminum EBITDA model used conservative assumptions.

Tristan Gresser of Exane BNP Paribas asked about the market environment for the aluminum ramp-up, potential risks like demand destruction, the company's exposure to potential pig iron tariffs from Brazil, and whether the current tariff situation differs from 2018.

Answer

Chairman & CEO Mark Millett described the aluminum market as highly positive due to a supply deficit and high import tariffs. President & COO Barry Schneider addressed pig iron, noting they manage metallics dynamically and hope for raw material relief. Millett concluded that tariffs are likely a long-term fixture but will evolve, leading to a better trade environment.

Tristan Gresser of Exane BNP Paribas questioned the market environment for the aluminum ramp-up, including potential demand destruction in the can market, and inquired about the company's exposure to potential tariffs on pig iron imports from Brazil.

Answer

Chairman & CEO Mark Millett described the aluminum market environment as even more positive due to the supply deficit and high tariffs on imports, noting strong customer interest and no signs of demand destruction in the can market. President & COO Barry Schneider addressed the pig iron issue, explaining that long product mills don't use it, Butler is self-sufficient, and they will manage metallics at other mills while hoping for raw material relief from tariffs.

Tristan Gresser from Exane BNP Paribas asked about the market environment for the new aluminum facility, potential risks like demand destruction, the company's exposure to potential pig iron tariffs from Brazil, and the long-term sustainability of Section 232 tariffs.

Answer

Chairman & CEO Mark Millett described the aluminum market as even more positive due to a growing supply deficit and high tariffs on imports. President & COO Barry Schneider addressed pig iron, explaining that while the tariff is a concern, the company manages its metallic mix daily and has alternatives. Millett added that tariffs will be a mainstay of trade policy, expecting the USMCA renegotiation to strengthen protections.

Tristan Gresser of BNP Paribas asked for an outlook on steel demand by end market following recent tariff announcements and whether to expect normal seasonality for Q2 shipments after a strong Q1.

Answer

President & COO Barry Schneider detailed continued real consumption despite uncertainty, highlighting strength in construction goods, HVAC, appliances, automotive, and pipe and tube. EVP & CFO Theresa Wagler added that due to Sinton's growth, market share gains, and the positive impact from trade cases on coated products, she would not expect total steel shipments to decrease in Q2.

Tristan Gresser of Exane BNP Paribas inquired about the impact of recent weather on operations and demand, the expected volume increase for steel and fabrication in Q1, the reason for a delay in the hot-dip galvanized trade case, and any recent surge in imports.

Answer

COO Barry Schneider noted that weather tightened scrap supply but had minimal operational impact. CFO Theresa Wagler anticipated seasonally higher Q1 volumes but emphasized a stronger full-year outlook. CEO Mark Millett explained the trade case delay is a normal procedural event due to data complexity and confirmed a recent import bump has been observed.

Tristan Gresser of BNP Paribas Exane inquired about the drivers behind increased metal spreads in the long products portfolio and sought the rationale for including Canada and Mexico in the recent galvanized steel trade case.

Answer

COO Barry Schneider credited the spread improvement to optimized scrap supply from their recycling platform and product diversification at their structural mills. CEO Mark Millett defended including Canada and Mexico in the trade case, citing a 'staggering' surge in import volumes from those countries, often transshipped from Asia, which necessitated action under USMCA provisions to ensure fair trade.

Tristan Gresser of BNP Paribas asked for an update on the Arizona 2 mill's utilization rate and profitability, its future product mix, the reasons for the West Virginia project's delay, and the resulting CapEx outlook for the next fiscal year.

Answer

President & CEO Peter Matt reported that Arizona 2 is making good progress, expecting to exit the year at 70-75% utilization and achieve profitability in Q4. He clarified the West Virginia delay is due to securing an $80M tax credit and weather, not market conditions. CFO Paul Lawrence provided a fiscal 2026 gross CapEx forecast of approximately $550 million, comprising $300 million for West Virginia and $250 million for maintenance and other growth.

Tristan Gresser of BNP Paribas asked for an update on the Arizona 2 mill's utilization rate and profitability, the reasons for the West Virginia project's delay, and the capital expenditure outlook for the next fiscal year.

Answer

President & CEO Peter Matt reported that the Arizona 2 mill is making good progress, expected to exit the year at 70-75% utilization and achieve profitability in Q4. He clarified the West Virginia delay to spring 2026 was due to securing an $80 million IRA tax credit and weather, not market conditions. CFO Paul Lawrence projected total CapEx for the next fiscal year to be approximately $550 million on a gross basis.

Tristan Gresser of BNP Paribas inquired about the Arizona 2 mill's utilization rate and EBITDA contribution, its product mix target for the next fiscal year, and the reasons for the West Virginia project's six-month delay, including any impact on the CapEx outlook.

Answer

President & CEO Peter Matt stated that Arizona 2 is making good progress, expecting to exit the year at 70-75% utilization and achieve profitability in Q4. He noted the product mix is flexible but the original plan was 350k tons of rebar and 150k tons of merchant bar. The West Virginia delay to spring 2026 was attributed to securing an $80 million IRA tax credit and weather, not market conditions. CFO Paul Lawrence outlined a preliminary fiscal 2026 CapEx of around $550 million.

Tristan Gresser from BNP Paribas Exane questioned the rationale behind downgrading the estimated rebar demand from infrastructure spending and requested perspective on the supply and demand dynamics in the U.S. merchant bar market.

Answer

Executive Peter Matt explained that the infrastructure demand estimate was revised downward to account for a 25-30% inflationary impact on spending, which reduces the physical tonnage, though the total impact remains significant. On the merchant bar market, he characterized demand as 'good, not great' and noted that merchant margins had recently experienced a larger decline than rebar margins.

Asked about the timing of the remaining cost savings, the rationale for the Q2 guidance given several positive drivers, European pricing spreads, the outlook for the Ferrochrome division including premiums and contract mix, and details on European trade policy such as the 'melt and pour' rule.

Answer

The remaining EUR 40 million in cost savings will be spread across the upcoming quarters. The Q2 guidance is conservative due to market uncertainty, though underlying business trends are positive. European pricing spreads are stable to positive. The Ferrochrome division sees solid demand, with all volumes receiving a premium and a trend towards longer-term contracts. Regarding trade policy, the EU commission understands the urgency, and a 'melt and pour' rule is being discussed to combat circumvention, with potential measures in 2025 and more significant ones in mid-2026.

Tristan Gresser from BNP Paribas Exane asked about the timing of the remaining EUR 40 million in cost savings, the factors behind the conservative Q2 guidance, the outlook for the Ferrochrome division, and potential European trade policy changes like the 'melt and pour' rule.

Answer

CFO Marc-Simon Schaar stated the remaining cost savings would be split equally over the next quarters and that the Q2 guidance reflects market uncertainty despite positive underlying trends. CEO Kati ter Horst noted a stable to positive trend in European pricing spreads. Regarding Ferrochrome, Schaar mentioned that demand is holding well, and all volumes receive a premium. Horst added that the prospect of CBAM is increasing interest in long-term contracts. She also explained that a 'melt and pour' rule is being discussed with the EU commission to combat tariff circumvention, with some measures possible in 2025 and more significant changes in summer 2026.

Tristan Gresser of BNP Paribas Exane inquired about the timeline for the remaining EUR 40 million in cost savings, the potential downside risks that could lead to a stable-only Q2 performance, and the current spread trends in the European stainless market. He also asked for an outlook on the Ferrochrome division, including volumes, pricing, and the extent of premium pricing, and sought details on the European trade policy, particularly the 'melted and poured' rule.

Answer

CFO Marc-Simon Schaar stated that the remaining cost savings will be split equally over the next quarters and that the conservative Q2 guidance reflects market uncertainty despite positive underlying trends. CEO Kati ter Horst noted a stable to positive trend in European spreads. Regarding Ferrochrome, Schaar mentioned that demand is holding well amid industry capacity reductions, and Horst added that CBAM is driving interest in long-term contracts. Schaar confirmed all Ferrochrome volumes receive a premium. On trade policy, Horst explained the 'melted and poured' rule is a key discussion point with the European Commission to combat circumvention, with some measures possible in 2025 and more significant action likely in summer 2026.

Tristan Gresser inquired about the timeline for the remaining EUR 40 million in cost savings, the potential downside risks that could lead to a stable versus higher Q2 EBITDA, and the current spread dynamics in Europe. He later asked for the outlook for the Ferrochrome division, what portion of its volumes receive a premium, and the potential impact of European trade policies like the 'melted and poured' rule.

Answer

CFO Marc-Simon Schaar stated the remaining cost savings would be distributed equally over the upcoming quarters and attributed the conservative Q2 guidance to market uncertainty, despite positive underlying business trends. CEO Kati ter Horst noted a stable to positive trend in European market spreads. Regarding Ferrochrome, Schaar confirmed all volumes receive a premium and that while the market is subdued, demand for Outokumpu's product is holding well. Horst added that discussions around the 'melted and poured' rule are aimed at preventing tariff circumvention, with the EU Commission understanding the urgency.

Tristan Gresser asked for an outlook on the tight scrap market, recent spot margin trends in Europe and the U.S., the effectiveness of new Mexican tariffs against import pressure, the potential for Americas volumes to reach 180 kilotonnes, and an update on the U.S. debottlenecking project.

Answer

CEO Heikki Malinen stated that the scrap market tightness may persist until European industrial activity broadly restarts, and the company has no formal view on the timing. Regarding Mexico, he noted that while the U.S. has raised concerns, the current tariffs are unlikely to fully mitigate the import pressure from Asia. CFO Pia Aaltonen-Forsell described the 180 kilotonne volume level as a historical figure representing an opportunity, not a specific forecast for H2. She also confirmed that work is ongoing for the remaining 30 kilotonnes of the debottlenecking project, but market opportunity is the key factor for realizing its benefits.

Asked about the current state of the U.S. market, the reasons for avoiding inventory losses in Q4 and the outlook for Q1, and the key drivers for the flat Q1 EBITDA guidance.

Answer

The company replied that the U.S. market is stabilizing and slightly improving but not yet in a rebound. Q4 inventory losses were avoided through effective management of buying, selling, and inventory levels. The flat Q1 guidance is driven by a combination of sales price developments and tightness in the scrap market, rather than a single factor like raw material losses.

Tristan Gresser asked why the current tariff environment would be different from the 'boom and bust' cycles of the past and questioned the benefit of downstream tariffs. He also requested guidance on cash interest expense and pension benefits.

Answer

CEO Lourenco Goncalves explained that the current administration is committed to avoiding the tariff exceptions and exclusions that undermined past efforts. He stressed that downstream tariffs are critical to prevent leakage through finished goods. CFO Celso Goncalves advised calculating cash interest from public bond data, while CEO Goncalves gave a brief, partially inaudible comment on pension cash.

Questioned the rationale for full production in Europe amid weak markets, the drivers for the 2024 European EBITDA guidance, the impact of CO2 costs, and the company's strategic growth plans beyond 2024.

Answer

The stable Q4 European outlook is attributed to higher volumes following a Q3 outage and cost tailwinds offsetting price weakness. The 2024 guidance reflects energy tailwinds and higher volumes offset by raw material and CO2 cost headwinds. The company declined to provide a strategic outlook or discuss capital allocation plans beyond 2024.