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    Tristan Gresser • BNP Paribas Exane

    Tristan Gresser's questions to ArcelorMittal SA (MT) leadership

    Tristan Gresser's questions to ArcelorMittal SA (MT) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Tristan Gresser inquired about the company's view on potential capacity restructuring in China and the likelihood of the European Commission enacting significant import quota cuts.

    Answer

    Head of IR Daniel Fairclough stated that while Chinese statements on reform are encouraging, elevated exports remain a concern, reinforcing the need for other regions to 'ring fence' their industries. EVP & CFO Genuino Christino commented on EU policy, noting that while they are engaged with authorities and some member states are supportive, they must wait for the final legislation to be revealed after the summer.

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    Tristan Gresser's questions to ArcelorMittal SA (MT) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Tristan Gresser of Exane inquired about ArcelorMittal's view on potential steel capacity cuts in China and the likelihood of the European Commission implementing significant import quota reductions.

    Answer

    Head of IR Daniel Fairclough acknowledged encouraging signals on Chinese capacity reform but emphasized the need for other regions to implement 'ring-fencing' trade measures regardless. EVP & CFO Genuino Christino stated that while the company is advocating for stricter EU import quotas, the final outcome of the Commission's review remains uncertain and is expected after the summer.

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    Tristan Gresser's questions to ArcelorMittal SA (MT) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Tristan Gresser from BNP Paribas Exane questioned how all planned European decarbonization projects could fit within the stated $4.5-$5 billion CapEx envelope. He also asked about a scenario where the Nippon Steel/U.S. Steel deal is cleared, and whether Nippon could then back out of selling its Calvert stake to ArcelorMittal.

    Answer

    Group CFO Genuino Christino stated that the large decarbonization projects will happen gradually over decades, not all at once, which gives him confidence they can be accommodated within the existing CapEx envelope once the right policy conditions are in place. Regarding the Calvert stake, Christino declined to speculate on the outcome of the Nippon Steel/U.S. Steel deal review, stating the company would wait and see.

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    Tristan Gresser's questions to ArcelorMittal SA (MT) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Tristan Gresser asked about delays in strategic projects, the status of the Texas HBI expansion, the scope of the Calvert investment, necessary policy actions in Europe, and the situation in South Africa.

    Answer

    CEO Aditya Mittal attributed project delays to equipment supply and a lack of recent large-scale project experience in Europe, noting a new global team was formed to improve execution. He confirmed the Texas HBI project is not in the medium-term pipeline, with focus shifted to Calvert. Regarding Europe, he stressed the need for action on trade and CBAM policy for competitiveness and decarbonization. For South Africa, he and CFO Genuino Christino confirmed the decision to shut down the uncompetitive long products business due to a scrap market imbalance.

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    Tristan Gresser's questions to ArcelorMittal SA (MT) leadership • Q2 2024

    Question

    Tristan Gresser asked for clarification on the Q3 guidance, specifically the restart time for the Mexico blast furnace and the outlook for the division including Ukraine and South Africa. He also questioned if the European forecast implies restocking and sought details on the company's advocacy for strengthening the CBAM.

    Answer

    Group CFO Genuino Christino explained that the Mexico blast furnace restart will take about two months. He noted that Ukraine was EBITDA-positive in Q2 despite ongoing challenges. On the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), he emphasized its importance and the need for improvements, such as export rebates and broader product coverage, to ensure the European industry's competitiveness.

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    Tristan Gresser's questions to Nucor Corp (NUE) leadership

    Tristan Gresser's questions to Nucor Corp (NUE) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Tristan Gresser of BNP Paribas inquired about tariff-related costs in Q2, the potential benefits from new tax legislation, and the outlook for working capital and free cash flow in the second half of the year.

    Answer

    CEO Leon Topalian confirmed no tariff-led costs in Q2 and highlighted significant opportunities from the new legislation in defense, infrastructure, and reshoring. CFO Stephen Laxton explained that a large working capital build suppressed H1 free cash flow but expects a strong positive reversal in H2, aided by lower capital spending.

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    Tristan Gresser's questions to Nucor Corp (NUE) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Tristan Gresser of BNP Paribas asked if any tariff-related raw material costs impacted Q2 results, sought quantification of the new tax legislation's benefits, and inquired about the significant working capital build in the first half of the year.

    Answer

    President and CEO Leon Topalian confirmed no tariff-led costs were seen in Q2 and highlighted future opportunities from the new legislation in defense, shipbuilding, and border wall funding. CFO Stephen Laxton explained that the Q2 working capital build of over $620 million was a primary use of cash but sets the stage for a 'dramatic change' to positive free cash flow in the second half of the year, aided by lower capital spending.

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    Tristan Gresser's questions to Nucor Corp (NUE) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Tristan Gresser from BNP Paribas asked about Nucor's discussions with the U.S. administration regarding raw material tariffs and inquired about the West Virginia project's budget increase and spending.

    Answer

    CEO Leon Topalian affirmed that Nucor actively engages with the administration to provide information on relevant issues. Regarding West Virginia, EVP Noah Hanners stated the project is 40-50% complete and on schedule. Topalian attributed the budget increase to broad inflationary pressures, and CFO Stephen Laxton added that over half the project's budget has been spent.

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    Tristan Gresser's questions to Nucor Corp (NUE) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Tristan Gresser asked about Nucor's potential interest in U.S. Steel assets and its broader sheet strategy. He also inquired about the Section 232 review, specifically if quota deals should be scrapped, and about the plate consumption of new tower facilities.

    Answer

    CEO Leon Topalian reiterated that any M&A would be subject to a disciplined valuation strategy. He described the sheet strategy as focused on higher-value products for key markets, like the Midwest, via the new West Virginia mill. He believes all trade deals will be re-evaluated. Executive D. Utermark (Chad) confirmed the new tower facilities will consume over 130,000 tons of plate annually.

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    Tristan Gresser's questions to Nucor Corp (NUE) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Tristan Gresser sought clarification on the Q4 guidance, asking if the 'meaningful contraction' in earnings could push Steel Mills' EBITDA per ton below COVID-era levels and if the Steel Products segment could fall short of its 15% EBITDA margin target. He also asked about the potential for U.S. carbon-based tariffs in 2025.

    Answer

    CFO Steve Laxton characterized the Q4 outlook as a continuation of recent moderation, highlighting that $168 million in unadjusted start-up costs are pressuring Steel Mill segment results. On trade, CEO Leon Topalian affirmed his belief that there is room for carbon-based tariffs to level the playing field, with executive Greg Murphy adding that Nucor supports the ITC's data gathering to ensure any policy is based on transparent data.

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    Tristan Gresser's questions to Steel Dynamics Inc (STLD) leadership

    Tristan Gresser's questions to Steel Dynamics Inc (STLD) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Tristan Gresser of Exane BNP Paribas asked about the market environment for the new aluminum facility, potential pig iron tariff impacts from Brazil, and the long-term durability of Section 232 tariffs.

    Answer

    CEO Mark Millett described the aluminum market as even more positive due to supply deficits and tariffs, and expressed confidence in a better long-term trade environment post-USMCA renegotiations. COO Barry Schneider detailed mitigation strategies for potential pig iron tariffs, emphasizing their flexible metallic sourcing and captive scrap supply. CFO Theresa Wagler added that their aluminum EBITDA model used conservative assumptions.

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    Tristan Gresser's questions to Steel Dynamics Inc (STLD) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Tristan Gresser of BNP Paribas asked for an outlook on steel demand by end market following recent tariff announcements and whether to expect normal seasonality for Q2 shipments after a strong Q1.

    Answer

    President & COO Barry Schneider detailed continued real consumption despite uncertainty, highlighting strength in construction goods, HVAC, appliances, automotive, and pipe and tube. EVP & CFO Theresa Wagler added that due to Sinton's growth, market share gains, and the positive impact from trade cases on coated products, she would not expect total steel shipments to decrease in Q2.

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    Tristan Gresser's questions to Steel Dynamics Inc (STLD) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Tristan Gresser of Exane BNP Paribas inquired about the impact of recent weather on operations and demand, the expected volume increase for steel and fabrication in Q1, the reason for a delay in the hot-dip galvanized trade case, and any recent surge in imports.

    Answer

    COO Barry Schneider noted that weather tightened scrap supply but had minimal operational impact. CFO Theresa Wagler anticipated seasonally higher Q1 volumes but emphasized a stronger full-year outlook. CEO Mark Millett explained the trade case delay is a normal procedural event due to data complexity and confirmed a recent import bump has been observed.

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    Tristan Gresser's questions to Steel Dynamics Inc (STLD) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Tristan Gresser of BNP Paribas Exane inquired about the drivers behind increased metal spreads in the long products portfolio and sought the rationale for including Canada and Mexico in the recent galvanized steel trade case.

    Answer

    COO Barry Schneider credited the spread improvement to optimized scrap supply from their recycling platform and product diversification at their structural mills. CEO Mark Millett defended including Canada and Mexico in the trade case, citing a 'staggering' surge in import volumes from those countries, often transshipped from Asia, which necessitated action under USMCA provisions to ensure fair trade.

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    Tristan Gresser's questions to Commercial Metals Co (CMC) leadership

    Tristan Gresser's questions to Commercial Metals Co (CMC) leadership • Q3 2025

    Question

    Tristan Gresser of BNP Paribas inquired about the Arizona 2 mill's utilization rate, profitability, and product mix. He also asked about the six-month delay for the West Virginia project and its impact on future capital expenditures.

    Answer

    President & CEO Peter Matt reported that the Arizona 2 mill is making good progress, expecting to exit the year at 70-75% utilization and achieve profitability in Q4. He stated the West Virginia delay was a strategic decision to secure an $80 million tax credit under the IRA and was not related to market conditions. CFO Paul Lawrence provided a preliminary FY2026 CapEx forecast of approximately $550 million, primarily driven by the West Virginia project.

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    Tristan Gresser's questions to Commercial Metals Co (CMC) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Tristan Gresser from BNP Paribas Exane questioned the rationale behind downgrading the estimated rebar demand from infrastructure spending and requested perspective on the supply and demand dynamics in the U.S. merchant bar market.

    Answer

    Executive Peter Matt explained that the infrastructure demand estimate was revised downward to account for a 25-30% inflationary impact on spending, which reduces the physical tonnage, though the total impact remains significant. On the merchant bar market, he characterized demand as 'good, not great' and noted that merchant margins had recently experienced a larger decline than rebar margins.

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    Tristan Gresser's questions to Outokumpu Oyj (OUTKY) leadership

    Tristan Gresser's questions to Outokumpu Oyj (OUTKY) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Tristan Gresser of BNP Paribas Exane inquired about the timeline for the remaining EUR 40 million in cost savings, the potential downside risks that could lead to a stable-only Q2 performance, and the current spread trends in the European stainless market. He also asked for an outlook on the Ferrochrome division, including volumes, pricing, and the extent of premium pricing, and sought details on the European trade policy, particularly the 'melted and poured' rule.

    Answer

    CFO Marc-Simon Schaar stated that the remaining cost savings will be split equally over the next quarters and that the conservative Q2 guidance reflects market uncertainty despite positive underlying trends. CEO Kati ter Horst noted a stable to positive trend in European spreads. Regarding Ferrochrome, Schaar mentioned that demand is holding well amid industry capacity reductions, and Horst added that CBAM is driving interest in long-term contracts. Schaar confirmed all Ferrochrome volumes receive a premium. On trade policy, Horst explained the 'melted and poured' rule is a key discussion point with the European Commission to combat circumvention, with some measures possible in 2025 and more significant action likely in summer 2026.

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    Tristan Gresser's questions to Outokumpu Oyj (OUTKY) leadership • Q1 2024

    Question

    Tristan Gresser followed up on the tight scrap market, asking about the outlook for easing conditions and recent spot margin improvements. He also inquired about the effectiveness of new Mexican import tariffs, the potential to reach 180,000-tonne quarterly volumes in the Americas, and the status of the ongoing debottlenecking project.

    Answer

    CEO Heikki Malinen stated that the company has no formal view on when the scrap market will ease, as it depends on a broader European industrial restart, but noted Outokumpu is sourcing all the scrap it needs. Regarding Mexico, he acknowledged short-term pressure from Asian oversupply that tariffs alone won't solve but expressed long-term optimism due to near-shoring trends. CFO Pia Aaltonen-Forsell commented that reaching 180,000-tonne volumes in the Americas represents an opportunity but did not commit to a specific timeline, adding that the key for the remaining debottlenecking capacity is market demand.

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