Tyler Batory

Tyler Batory questioned the achievability of a 2.5 sales pace in the back half of the year, whether macro improvements are necessary, and the confidence drivers for this ramp. He also asked for details on the gross margin progression, including the Q1 shortfall, Q2 sequential trends, and the back-half ramp, as well as the ASP and margin premium of newer communities.

Answer

Allan Merrill, Chairman and CEO, stated that the 2.5 sales pace is achievable, supported by improving buyer engagement in January and late December, and the effectiveness of their 'Enjoy the Great Indoors' messaging, noting it's below historical Q3/Q4 trends. He clarified that Q1 adjusted gross margin was close to guidance. Merrill explained that the 300 basis points margin expansion in the back half is driven by positive mix shifts from newer, higher-margin communities (projected to be 50% of Q4 revenue, up from 10% in Q1) and direct cost savings, assuming consistent incentives. He added that backlog ASP for newer communities is around $560,000, with a material margin premium of a couple of hundred basis points.

Tyler Batory questioned the achievability of the 2.5 sales pace target for the back half of the year, the gross margin progression from Q1 to Q2, and the expected ASP and margin premium of newer communities compared to existing ones.

Answer

Allan Merrill, Chairman and CEO, affirmed the 2.5 sales pace target is achievable given improving buyer engagement and historical trends, despite not being met in the last two years. He clarified that Q1 gross margin was close to guidance when excluding a litigation charge. Merrill explained that back-half margin improvement is driven by mix shift to newer, higher-priced communities and direct cost savings, not reduced incentives. He noted newer communities have significantly higher ASPs (backlog ASP around $560,000) and a couple of hundred basis points higher margins.

Tyler Batory of Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. asked about Beazer Homes' strategy for balancing sales pace and price, particularly concerning the disappointing results in Texas. He also inquired about cost trends for labor and materials for their differentiated energy-efficient homes and the percentage of spec homes in their orders and closings.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Allan Merrill acknowledged the sales pace in Texas was disappointing due to high market inventory but stated they are making adjustments and expect improvement. He noted that outside of Texas, results were largely in line with expectations. SVP and CFO David Goldberg added that the company is making progress on reducing direct construction costs, which should benefit fiscal 2026. He confirmed the spec home mix remains elevated in the high-60% range, which puts some pressure on gross margins.

Tyler Batory inquired about the sales pace seen in April, the drivers behind the second-half guidance, whether Q2 gross margin is a floor, and the multiyear outlook for land investment following the recent spending reduction.

Answer

CEO Allan Merrill noted that the Q3 order guide is supported by easier year-over-year comps and a larger community count. Executive David Goldberg stated they prioritized preserving land value over chasing volume by cutting prices, and he detailed factors supporting sequential margin improvement. Merrill added that future land spend depends on the relative value of land versus stock repurchases.

Tyler Batory of Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. inquired about current demand trends in January, incentive levels in Q1 versus the prior quarter, and the key drivers for the expected gross margin improvement in the second half of the fiscal year.

Answer

CEO Allan Merrill noted that January demand feels slightly better than December, though not a 'blowout.' He explained that while incentives on to-be-built homes decreased, incentives on spec homes spiked in November and December to remain competitive, impacting margins by 1-2 points. Merrill attributed the expected back-half margin ramp to closing delayed high-margin homes, a lower mix of spec sales, the phase-out of lower-margin 'prior series' homes, and realizing construction cost savings.

Tyler Batory requested more detail on the margin benefits of Zero Energy Ready homes, asked about the markets where incentives were adjusted, and sought clarity on whether EPS could grow in fiscal 2025 given the guidance and higher tax rate.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Allan Merrill detailed the value of Zero Energy Ready homes, highlighting significant cost savings for buyers and confidence in reducing build costs and improving sales effectiveness. He confirmed incentives were used to boost pace in lagging markets like Houston. Executive David Goldberg clarified that while a higher tax rate in fiscal 2025 will impact EPS comparability, the company expects to generate another year of double-digit return on capital employed and would be disappointed if it was lower than fiscal 2024's 11%.

Tyler Batory from Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. asked for more detail on leisure travel trends, specifically the differences between urban and resort leisure, and questioned the company's strategy for share repurchases compared to other capital uses.

Answer

CEO Leslie Hale highlighted that urban leisure outperformed with 7% revenue growth in Q2, driven by special events, but acknowledged overall leisure rate pressure from softer international travel. COO Tom Bardenett added that the company is successfully holding average rates. Regarding capital allocation, Hale confirmed that share repurchases remain attractive and the company will continue its programmatic approach, primarily using disposition proceeds to maintain leverage neutrality while also funding conversions.

Tyler Batory from Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. inquired about the specific drivers behind the fundamental outlook miss in March and April, and sought confidence-building indicators that trends would not deteriorate further. He also asked for quantification of the shortened booking window and any increase in cancellations.

Answer

President and CEO Leslie D. Hale attributed the revised guidance to softness in government and international demand and overall uncertainty. She noted the 0-to-7-day booking window has increased from 51% to 58% of bookings. EVP and CFO Sean Mahoney added that the guidance implies a flat RevPAR for the second half of the year, with Q2 expected to be the weakest quarter. Hale confirmed they are monitoring cancellations and attendance closely but have not seen a significant uptick outside of the government segment.

Tyler Batory questioned the impact of increased competition in the lending market and asked how a potential decline in interest rates would affect SUNS's business and net interest margin.

Answer

CEO Brian Sedrish responded that the heaviest competition is in the near-stabilized market, whereas SUNS focuses on less competitive transitional projects. Executive Chairman Leonard Tannenbaum explained that the portfolio is well-positioned for falling rates due to high SOFR floors on its assets (avg. 4.1%) versus a lower floor on its credit facility (2.6%), creating an opportunity to expand net interest margin. He also noted lower rates would improve access to the unsecured debt market.

Tyler Batory of Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. requested more detail on the $100 million in signed term sheets, the timeline for expanding the bank credit line, and the dividend outlook for the remainder of 2025.

Answer

Executive Chairman Leonard Tannenbaum explained that loan allocation is determined near closing and that timelines depend on external factors and conditions precedent. He noted the bank line expansion is progressing, with stable economic terms expected, and hopes to announce new banking partners next quarter. Tannenbaum and CFO Brandon Hetzel reiterated guidance for Q2 earnings to cover the dividend and pointed to earnings growth in late 2025 and 2026 from funding construction loans.

Tyler Batory from Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. inquired about the drivers of the strong Effective Ticket Price (ETP) growth, how Pursuit is outperforming a choppy leisure travel market, and the strategic rationale behind the Costa Rica acquisition.

Answer

CFO Bo Heitz attributed strong ETP growth to a relentless focus on guest experience and yield, highlighting the Sky Lagoon's premium offering expansion as a key driver. President & CEO David Barry added that a company-wide 'growth mindset' in improving experiences justifies pricing power. Both executives noted that perennial demand for iconic locations, favorable FX in Canada, and strong execution are allowing Pursuit to perform well despite broader market concerns. Regarding Costa Rica, David Barry described it as a foundational, counter-seasonal acquisition in a market with perennial demand that fits their criteria perfectly, with plans to build a larger collection there over time.

Tyler Batory from Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. inquired about the drivers behind the strong effective ticket price (ETP) growth and its potential margin impact. He also asked for commentary on how the business is performing so well organically amidst a choppy consumer spending environment and sought more detail on the strategic rationale for the Costa Rica acquisition.

Answer

CFO Bo Heitz attributed the strong ETP growth to a relentless focus on guest experience and yield management, highlighting the Sky Lagoon's premium offering expansion as a key driver, which flows through to EBITDA with high margins. President & CEO David Barry and CFO Bo Heitz explained that strong performance is driven by perennial demand for iconic locations, favorable FX rates in Canada, and a focus on quality that insulates them from broader consumer choppiness. Regarding Costa Rica, Barry described the Tabacon acquisition as a foundational asset that fits their criteria of iconic, high-barrier-to-entry locations, with plans to build a larger collection in the region.

Tyler Batory of Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. inquired about the private capital fundraising environment, asking if management was seeing any "green shoots" or optimism from potentially lower interest rates. He also requested a detailed explanation of the mechanics and rationale behind the newly launched RMR Residential Enhanced Growth Venture.

Answer

President and CEO Adam Portnoy acknowledged that while the fundraising environment remains challenging, it is improving, evidenced by an increase in meetings with potential capital providers. He explained the RMR Residential Enhanced Growth Venture strategy involves seeding a portfolio with nearly $100 million of RMR's equity in five assets to attract investors who prefer committed capital over blind pools. The goal is to raise an additional $300 million in equity, creating a vehicle with approximately $1 billion in buying power, a model also being applied to its credit and retail strategies.

Tyler Batory inquired about the strategic rationale for the new value-add retail acquisition, asking why RMR is using its balance sheet for these deals and about future plans for this business segment. He also questioned the cause of lower-than-expected construction fees from REIT CapEx, its expected run rate, and any seasonality. Finally, he asked about the dividend coverage, overall capital allocation strategy, and whether other uses of capital are being considered given the stock's current yield.

Answer

President and CEO Adam Portnoy explained that the value-add retail strategy leverages RMR's deep in-house expertise in a market with low vacancy and no new supply, aiming for high returns. He stated that using the balance sheet first is intended to build a track record before raising third-party capital. CFO Matt Jordan addressed the construction fees, noting that the first calendar quarter is seasonally low and that this lower run rate will likely persist for a few quarters due to capital constraints at client REITs. Regarding the dividend, Adam Portnoy affirmed their comfort with the current payout ratio, highlighting RMR's strong balance sheet with no debt and significant cash for high-return investments. Matt Jordan added that the dividend is well-covered with a 79% payout ratio, even at a seasonal low point for earnings, and is not a current concern.

Tyler Batory of Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. asked about the Q3 hotel portfolio guidance, drivers for the 2026 CapEx forecast, the reason for the revised asset sale proceeds, and the future scale of the net lease acquisition pipeline.

Answer

CFO & Treasurer Brian Donley explained that Q3 softness is seasonal and trends are comparable to Q2's year-over-year performance. He also detailed the 2026 CapEx reduction to $150 million, with a long-term goal of 10-12% of revenues. President & CEO Christopher Bilotto added that fewer renovations will reduce future EBITDA disruption. He clarified the asset sale proceeds were adjusted after pulling one hotel from the market and finalizing due diligence. Bilotto described the current net lease acquisition pace as a "fair run rate for the time being," funded by capital recycling.

Tyler Batory asked for details on the Q1 performance guidance for the 83 retained hotels, the asset sale process versus expectations, the dynamics of selling hotels with or without the Sonesta brand, the 2025 CapEx budget, and the company's capital allocation priorities.

Answer

Todd Hargreaves, President and CIO, stated the asset sale process is going slightly better than expected with strong buyer interest, and most hotels will likely retain the Sonesta brand. Brian Donley, Treasurer and CFO, noted that the retained hotels are heavily concentrated in full-service, leading to seasonal weakness in Q1, and outlined capital priorities as 1) debt reduction, 2) CapEx investment, and 3) net lease growth. He also specified that the normalized maintenance CapEx run rate for the retained portfolio is $65-$75 million.

Tyler Batory asked about the confidence in achieving the $1 billion sale price for the 114-hotel portfolio, the expected sale process, and the impact of Sonesta brand encumbrance on value. He also questioned the drivers behind the Q3 EBITDA miss and softer Q4 guidance, the potential for future RevPAR outperformance, and management's comfort level with the company's liquidity and upcoming debt maturities.

Answer

President and CIO Todd Hargreaves stated the $1 billion target is an estimate based on valuations and expects the properties to be sold in larger portfolios. Vice President Jesse Abair attributed the weaker EBITDA performance to renovation disruption, tough comps, cost pressures, and softening leisure demand. Mr. Hargreaves agreed that RevPAR could outperform post-renovation and disposition. Regarding liquidity, Mr. Abair expressed comfort, citing a demonstrated ability to access capital markets, cash from sales, and multiple refinancing levers to handle upcoming debt maturities.

Asked about the competitive pricing environment in Jamaica, airlift trends into key markets, and specifics on the company's FX assumptions and hedging for Q4 and 2025.

Answer

The company is strategically lowering ADR in Jamaica by 10-15% to rebuild its occupancy base, not engaging in a 'race to the bottom'. Airlift into its markets is stabilizing after a Q2 decline. For FX, Q4 guidance assumes a 19 MXN/USD rate, and for 2025, 70-75% of peso exposure is hedged, creating an expected $12-17M tailwind. The unhedged sensitivity is about $2.75M of EBITDA per quarter for every 1-point change in the exchange rate.

Tyler Batory asked how the company is thinking about potential acquisitions and capital recycling, given the increased liquidity from its expanded credit facility.

Answer

Chair and CEO Marcel Verbaas stated that the core strategy is unchanged: to upgrade the portfolio's growth profile by selectively disposing of assets and acquiring higher-growth properties. He noted that while few compelling opportunities have emerged recently, he expects that to change. Verbaas emphasized that future capital allocation will be a balance between acquisitions, internal ROI projects like the Scottsdale renovation, and potential share repurchases, all supported by an improving balance sheet.

Tyler Batory from Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. requested more specific data on the remaining midweek occupancy growth potential versus pre-COVID levels and the impact of the leisure-to-business mix shift on ADR. He also asked for perspective on the Nashville market.

Answer

CFO Liz Perkins quantified the midweek occupancy opportunity, stating there is still 300 to 750 basis points of room to grow on peak days (Monday-Wednesday) compared to 2019. She acknowledged the mix shift has pressured ADR but expects the negative impact to decline. CEO Justin Knight remained positive on the Nashville development, attributing recent market softness to a weaker event calendar and new supply absorption, but highlighted the long-term favorable dynamics and strong performance of the Motto brand.

Asked for confirmation on the current cash balance, the outlook for non-performing loans, and the company's dividend policy going forward.

Answer

The company confirmed the $30M cash balance is from principal repayments as part of a defensive strategy. Non-performing loans may remain elevated due to market uncertainty, and they are playing defense until 2025. The dividend has been reduced to conserve cash and align with taxable earnings, a situation expected to continue for a couple more quarters.

Asked about GES's 2024 same-store revenue, show size, and pricing outlook. Also inquired about the assumptions for long-haul travel in Pursuit's guidance, the path to low-30s EBITDA margin for Pursuit, and the use of free cash flow for CapEx and debt reduction.

Answer

GES same-store revenue is expected to grow in the mid-single-digit range, driven by pricing and increased square footage. The Pursuit guidance does not assume a significant change in Asian group travel, as its recovery is seen as a multi-year process. A 30% EBITDA margin for Pursuit is on track for 2024. Strong free cash flow, especially in Q3, will be used to pay down debt, with growth CapEx of about $20M split between FlyOver Chicago ($6M) and other smaller projects.