Vince Ciepiel

Vince Ciepiel of Cleveland Research sought clarification on the 1 million passenger target for Great Stirrup Cay in 2026, what percentage of capacity this represents, and the potential yield benefit. He also asked about the timeline for a potential reopening of the Middle East and Red Sea.

Answer

President and CEO Harry Sommer confirmed the 1 million passenger target for Great Stirrup Cay in 2026, which is about 30% of total guests, but stated it was premature to quantify a yield benefit. EVP and CFO Mark Kempa added the new pier first ensures product delivery. For the Middle East, Sommer agreed it is more likely a 2027 opportunity due to long-term deployment planning, unlike Northern Europe where ships are already positioned to potentially add St. Petersburg back to itineraries.

Vince Ciepiel asked about the future trend for occupancy and whether it could be a tailwind to yield growth, and also inquired about the full-year impact of dry docks on costs for 2025 compared to 2024.

Answer

CEO Harry Sommer stated that he does not see occupancy as a significant tailwind, as ships are essentially full from a cabin perspective and any changes would come from lower-revenue third and fourth berths. CFO Mark Kempa clarified that the annual dry dock impact is expected to be similar year-over-year, with the Q1 2025 callout being a matter of timing within the year rather than an increase in total days.

Vince Ciepiel asked about the longer-term opportunity for Carnival, specifically regarding the multi-year goal of low to mid-single-digit per diem growth. He noted that occupancy is still about a point shy of 2019 levels and that a significant portion of the fleet is newer, potentially over-indexing to balconies and having higher occupancy potential. He inquired about the multi-year opportunity on the occupancy side of the yield equation.

Answer

CEO Josh Weinstein stated that there is no specific 'magic' in hitting the exact 2019 occupancy number, as the focus is on optimizing between price and occupancy to maximize total revenue. He acknowledged that while it's easy to sail completely full, the key is achieving that at the right price. Mr. Weinstein confirmed there is an opportunity for brands to incrementally improve occupancy from Q3 levels, which are already near the 2019 high watermark and above the historical range, by making brand-by-brand trade-offs between price and occupancy.

Vince Ciepiel from Cleveland Research Company asked about Carnival's multi-year opportunity for occupancy improvement, considering it's still about a point shy of 2019 levels. He also factored in that approximately 20% of the fleet is newer, potentially over-indexing to balconies and having higher occupancy potential.

Answer

CEO Josh Weinstein clarified that Carnival encourages brands to optimize between price and occupancy, rather than solely chasing occupancy, as it's easy to sail full at a lower price. He stated there is still opportunity for brands to improve occupancy from Q3 2025 levels, which are near 2019 high watermarks and above historical ranges, by making brand-by-brand trade-offs between price and occupancy to get more guests on board at the right price.

Vince Ciepiel from Cleveland Research Company inquired about the multi-year opportunity for occupancy improvement within the targeted low to mid-single-digit per diem growth, considering current occupancy levels relative to 2019 and the newer fleet's higher indexing to balconies.

Answer

CEO Josh Weinstein stated that while there's no 'magic' in hitting a specific occupancy number, brands are encouraged to optimize for total revenue rather than just occupancy. He acknowledged opportunity for incremental occupancy improvement brand by brand, making trade-offs between price and occupancy to get more guests on board at the right price, noting current occupancy is near 2019 high-water marks.

Vince Ciepiel of Cleveland Research asked about the expected timing of Celebration Key's peak impact on bookings and the broader strategy for the company's land-based assets. He also inquired about any shifts in inbound international travel to the U.S.

Answer

CEO Josh Weinstein explained that the full impact of Celebration Key is yet to come, especially as marketing shifts from animation to reality. He outlined a vision to grow Caribbean destination guests from 6.5 million to 11 million by the end of the decade. He noted that inbound U.S. travel is not a large part of their business, as they strategically place ships in their primary source markets.

Vince Ciepiel of Cleveland Research Company asked for details on the recently updated TripAdvisor app, including its traffic contribution, monetization strategy, and rollout plans. He also inquired about any recent shifts in the full-year revenue contribution outlook between the Brand TripAdvisor and Viator segments.

Answer

President and CEO Matt Goldberg described the app's relaunch as a personalized travel companion with a new rewards program and in-app booking capabilities, noting it drives higher ARPU and reduces paid media reliance, with a US-first rollout. CFO Mike Noonan confirmed the full-year consolidated guidance remains unchanged, acknowledging factors like increased free traffic pressure at Brand TripAdvisor and booking mix effects at Viator, but expressed confidence in the overall range.

Vince Ciepiel of Cleveland Research Company asked for more details on the new River cruising product, including the company's conviction level in scaling the fleet and curating the shoreside experience. He also inquired if the current annual CapEx of around $5 billion is a good run-rate to assume for 2026 and 2027.

Answer

President & CEO Jason Liberty expressed high confidence in the river cruise product, noting the ship design will be a meaningful differentiator and that pre-launch customer interest is already high enough to create a long backlog. He stated the main challenge is accelerating the rollout to meet this demand. CFO Naftali Holtz did not provide specific future CapEx guidance but explained that the annual figure depends on the number and size of ship deliveries each year. He noted that after funding core maintenance, destination projects, and modernization, the company generates significant excess cash flow for strengthening the balance sheet and shareholder returns.

Vince Ciepiel asked for an assessment of the cruise industry's pricing discipline over the last 30-60 days amid reports of market choppiness. He also inquired about the company's capital allocation priorities, balancing share repurchases with balance sheet strength.

Answer

CEO Jason Liberty stated he has observed rational behavior and price integrity across the industry, attributing it to a collective focus on gaining share from the broader leisure market rather than from each other. CFO Naftali Holtz reiterated that the capital allocation strategy prioritizes growth investments supported by a strong balance sheet, supplemented by a competitive dividend and opportunistic share repurchases.

Vince Ciepiel of Cleveland Research asked for an update on the cross-brand loyalty program, seeking quantifiable data on its success. He also inquired about the future Perfect Day Mexico destination, its impact on deployment, and its projected passenger capacity.

Answer

CEO Jason Liberty described the loyalty reciprocity program as 'grossly successful,' driving more repeat guests than planned by making the brand ecosystem 'stickier.' Regarding Perfect Day Mexico, Michael Bayley, President and CEO of the Royal Caribbean brand, stated that its future guest volume will 'far exceed' that of CocoCay, supported by new Icon-class ships and the Galveston homeport.

Vince Ciepiel asked about recent booking trends, advertising strategy amid potential election noise, and whether the recent hurricane would have any carry-through impact on 2025 yields or occupancy.

Answer

CEO Jason Liberty noted that demand patterns have continued to elevate, driven by strong guest advocacy, and they plan to maintain their successful marketing investments. Royal Caribbean International CEO Michael Bayley added that historical analysis shows elections have no material long-term impact on bookings. CFO Naftali Holtz confirmed there has been no discernible hurricane impact on 2025 bookings.

Vince Ciepiel of Cleveland Research Company asked for a big-picture perspective on the path for business margins, considering cost efficiencies and revenue recovery, and whether margins could approach historical levels by the end of 2023.

Answer

CEO Josh Weinstein stated that while not providing long-term guidance, the company's operational goal is to have unit profitability (adjusted EBITDA per ALBD, ex-fuel and currency) exceed 2019 levels by the end of 2023. CFO David Bernstein added that significant revenue potential should drive ROIC considerably higher over the next one to two years.