Walter Piecyk

Walter Piecyk asked about the PNT order that dropped out of Q4, inquiring if it would fall into Q1 or if it's still being worked out. He questioned if PNT revenue would be lumpy quarter-to-quarter and if there would be an element of deferred revenue. He also asked about the timeline for new constellation spending and when Iridium would need to decide between monetizing spectrum or investing in a new constellation. Finally, he asked how Iridium communicates potential strategic spectrum transactions to existing customers without causing disruption.

Answer

CFO Vince O'Neill expects the PNT order in 2026, but timing is uncertain, and anticipates lumpiness in PNT revenue over the next 12-18 months. He noted there might be a small element of deferred revenue. CEO Matt Desch stated that if Iridium builds a constellation itself, spending wouldn't need to start until 2031, ramping up in 2034-2035. He asserted that Iridium's flexible system allows for multiple uses of its spectrum, and customers might be interested in future services, comparing it to other industry players planning new networks.

Walter Piecyk sought confirmation that spectrum discussions can proceed now without impacting existing customers and for a planned constellation.

Answer

CEO Matt Desch confirmed that such discussions can occur without disruption to existing customers.

Walter Piecyk of LightShed Partners questioned the deceleration in IoT revenue growth in Q2, asking for the drivers of the confident re-acceleration forecast for the second half of the year and its sustainability. He also sought clarification on whether the $1 billion service revenue target for 2030 is purely organic or includes potential acquisitions.

Answer

CFO Vincent O’Neill stated that specific events in Q3 and Q4, not reflected in the year-to-date run rate, support the double-digit IoT growth forecast for the full year. CEO Matthew Desch added that IoT business activity remains robust and that the events driving H2 growth are ongoing. Regarding the 2030 target, Desch clarified that while tuck-in acquisitions have always been a possibility, the company has internal plans to reach the $1 billion goal organically.

Walter Piecyk of LightShed Partners sought to clarify if the $1 billion revenue target for 2030 requires acquisitions or if they would be incremental. He also questioned the drivers of government revenue growth given contract cycles and the impact of margin changes on government gross profit. Finally, he asked about Iridium's stake and potential strategy with Aireon.

Answer

CEO Matt Desch stated the internal plan is to hit the $1 billion target organically, making future M&A incremental. He corrected that the government contract has step-ups, not step-downs. CFO Vince O'Neill clarified that margin pressure was in equipment, not services. Regarding Aireon, Matt Desch expressed strong belief in its future and a desire to potentially increase Iridium's stake, possibly through a recapitalization.

Walter Piecyk probed whether the 'materially up' revenue from a large IoT customer in 2025 implies an acceleration in overall IoT segment growth. He also sought to confirm that the Satelles revenue, layered into the hosted payload line, is recurring and will grow sequentially.

Answer

CFO Tom Fitzpatrick clarified that the 'materially up' comment was specific to one large customer and should not be modeled as an acceleration for the entire IoT segment beyond its current strong performance. CEO Matt Desch added the commentary was intended to provide color on unusual net-add figures. Fitzpatrick confirmed that, generally speaking, the Satelles revenue is recurring and expected to build from its current base.

Walter Piecyk asked if the cash from spectrum sales, directed to EchoStar Capital, would be protected from DBS shareholders and OpEx obligations like tower companies. He also pressed for more clarity on the criteria for returning capital to shareholders if investment opportunities are limited, and whether EchoStar Capital's investments would be passive or operational.

Answer

Hamid Akhavan, President and CEO of EchoStar Capital, explained that while it's too early for a precise roadmap, EchoStar Capital aims to strategically deploy capital using its institutional knowledge to maximize shareholder value, but would distribute excess capital if opportunities are insufficient. Charlie Ergen, CEO and Chairman of EchoStar, noted that the AT&T transaction would provide $2.8 billion to DBS, serving as collateral. Akhavan clarified that EchoStar Capital does not intend to be purely passive, balancing active and passive investments while managing regulatory considerations and leveraging its operational heritage.

Walter Piecyk questioned whether the capital in EchoStar Capital (SATS cap) would be protected from DBS shareholders and OpEx obligations like tower companies. He also sought more clarity on the conditions for distributing capital to shareholders and whether investments would be passive or operational.

Answer

Hamid Akhavan, President and CEO of EchoStar Capital, explained that EchoStar Capital aims to strategically deploy capital using its institutional knowledge to maximize shareholder value, rather than being purely passive. He noted that capital distribution would be considered if excess capital beyond strategic use exists. Charlie Ergen, CEO and Chairman of EchoStar, confirmed that the AT&T transaction would provide $2.8 billion to DBS, which is collateral. Hamid Akhavan clarified that EchoStar Capital will balance active and passive investments to manage regulatory requirements.

Walter Piecyk asked about the go-to-market strategy for the terrestrial 5G network, questioning if a major distribution partner is needed and seeking a timeline for the resolution of the company's discussions with the FCC.

Answer

Director, President & CEO Hamid Akhavan affirmed EchoStar is operating as the fourth wireless player and has achieved net port positivity, but could not provide a specific timeline for an FCC resolution. He noted that while it's a top priority, the timing depends on other parties, though he does not expect it to be years away.

Walter Piecyk of LightShed asked about EchoStar's willingness to increase investment in wireless distribution and advertising to accelerate growth. He also questioned the company's willingness to pursue an MVNO deal with a partner like Comcast and whether such a deal could include pass-through access to EchoStar's roaming partners.

Answer

CEO Hamid Akhavan confirmed that the company is actively developing new distribution channels and routes to market, with results expected toward the end of 2025. Regarding a potential wholesale MVNO deal, he stated they are open to all partnerships but would not comment on any specific company. COO John Swieringa clarified that while technologically possible, using their AT&T and T-Mobile roaming relationships for a wholesale partner would require new business agreements and cooperation from all parties.

Walter Piecyk questioned the key drivers behind the significant inflection in wireless gross adds, its sustainability, and whether the company would break out prepaid versus postpaid subscribers. He also asked for metrics on on-net versus roaming traffic.

Answer

President and CEO Hamid Akhavan attributed the growth to broad operational and customer experience improvements across the business, not a one-time effect or bundling, and stated they would not break out prepaid/postpaid as they are merging the customer experience. John Swieringa, President of Technology and COO, added that over 1 million customers are now on their own network, with device compatibility improving significantly to facilitate this shift.

Walter Piecyk questioned whether EchoStar could continue funding its wireless build-out with DBS cash flow if the debt exchange fails, and asked about the company's willingness to add a major wholesale customer versus preserving the network's strategic value for a future transaction.

Answer

President and CEO Hamid Akhavan asserted that with newly secured financing, the company has a clear path forward regardless of the DBS exchange outcome. He and President of Technology and COO John Swieringa emphasized the network was built for wholesale and is ready for major customers, viewing it as a key way to realize the company's 'vastly undervalued' asset base. However, Akhavan noted that the retail business remains a primary focus and no definitive course on partnerships has been set.

Walt Piecyk questioned whether the limitation for removing safety drivers in the Bay Area, compared to Austin, is purely regulatory or also due to a market-by-market learning process. He also asked if the safety attendant strategy in new markets is a step-by-step process or solely regulation-driven. In a follow-up, he inquired about the differences in feel between FSD 14 and 13, and the development path for robotaxi versus early adopter builds, specifically asking if new builds prioritize intervention rate improvements or added functionality/comfort.

Answer

Elon Musk, CEO, stated that even without regulatory mandates, Tesla would adopt a cautious approach with safety drivers/occupants in new markets for about three months to confirm no unexpected challenges, prioritizing safety. Ashok Elluswamy, VP of Autopilot and AI Software, confirmed that the robotaxi and customer FSD builds are mostly the same, with minor feature differences. Musk explained that the first priority for major new software architectures like FSD 14 is safety, followed by comfort, advising users to wait until 14.2 for comfort improvements. He highlighted the "super exhilarating" roadmap, including adding "reasoning" to the car by year-end (14.3/14.4), which will enable smarter decisions like dropping off passengers and then finding parking. Elluswamy emphasized the challenge of fitting this advanced AI into the in-car computer for real-time decisions. Musk reiterated Tesla AI's high "intelligence density" per gigabyte.

Walt Piecyk followed up by asking about the differences in FSD Version 14 compared to Version 13 and the Austin robotaxi experience, questioning if there's a separate development path for robotaxis versus early adopters. He also asked if new builds prioritize intervention rate improvements or new functionalities and comfort.

Answer

Elon Musk, CEO, explained that the first priority for a major new Autopilot software architecture release (like V14) is safety, followed by comfort. He advised most users to wait for 14.2 to address initial "jerky" comfort issues. Ashok Elluswamy, VP of Autopilot and AI Software, clarified that the customer and robotaxi software are "mostly the same," with minor feature differences. Musk also mentioned adding "reasoning" to the car by the end of the year (AI4 or AI5), enabling smarter actions like dropping off passengers and then finding parking. Elluswamy highlighted the challenge of fitting this reasoning capability into the in-car computer for real-time decisions. Musk emphasized Tesla AI's high "intelligence density" due to the constraint of fitting into the AI4 computer.

Walt Piecyk asked for commentary on the Volvo partnership in light of EX90 issues and Volvo's technical strategy, and questioned how the market might evolve regarding the importance of direct OEM relationships versus those with autonomous technology partners.

Answer

CEO Paul Ricci described Volvo as an excellent partner and a leader in LiDAR deployment, acknowledging lower shipment forecasts but reaffirming their ongoing collaboration. He declined to comment on Volvo's internal product issues. Ricci stated that the market's future is being decided now, as OEMs are signing production contracts for 2027-2029 that include sourcing LiDAR hardware and software directly.

Walter Piecyk from LightShed Partners questioned Cogent's sources of capital to fund its dividend growth, challenged the company's net leverage calculation methodology, and asked about board policies regarding the CEO's pledged shares and the mechanics of a potential margin call.

Answer

Dave Schaeffer, Founder & CEO, disagreed with the premise of needing capital, citing over $300M in cash and declining CapEx post-data center upgrades. He detailed borrowing capacity at multiple corporate levels. Regarding his stock, he explained the pledges were to fund tax payments and real estate equity injections, and confirmed the board's audit committee oversees the policy, which does not currently have a cap on pledged shares.

Walter Piecyk of LightShed Partners sought clarification on wavelength installations, confirming that the pace is now dictated by customer readiness rather than Cogent's capacity. He also asked about the potential revenue growth if installs were not back-end loaded. Additionally, he questioned the significant IPv4 address takedown, asking for the reason, the quantity of addresses involved, and the outlook for future growth.

Answer

CEO David Schaeffer confirmed that installation capacity (500/month) exceeds the current funnel conversion rate (4-5%/month) due to customer readiness. He estimated that if Q1 installs were mid-quarter, sequential revenue growth would have been around 13% instead of 2.2%. On IPv4, he explained that a material number of addresses were reclaimed from a customer for copyright violations. He stated the company expects to return to adding over 500,000 addresses per quarter, though takedowns for policy violations can be episodic.

Walter Piecyk challenged the reported sequential growth in IPv4 revenue, which appeared to decline based on prior disclosures, and questioned the 20% drop in the wavelength order backlog.

Answer

CFO Tad Weed clarified the IPv4 revenue figures were adjusted from reporting based on monthly recurring charges (MRCs) to audited U.S. GAAP revenue, causing the change from prior disclosures. CEO David Schaeffer explained the wavelength funnel reduction was a result of grooming old orders and installing others, and he expects net new IPv4 address additions to rebound to the historical average of nearly 500,000 per quarter over time.

Walter Piecyk questioned the nature of the data center CapEx, asking if it was speculative or tied to contracts and when sales might materialize, allowing spending to decrease. He also challenged the dividend policy, asking if it should be reconsidered given the cash burn from CapEx, the T-Mobile payment drop-off, and rising leverage.

Answer

CEO David Schaeffer clarified that while there are no executed sales, they have letters of intent and expect reportable transactions before June 2025, after which the elevated CapEx will cease. Regarding the dividend, Schaeffer expressed strong confidence in their policy, citing substantial access to additional capital, such as through the IPv4 ABS trust, and multiple growth vectors. He affirmed they are comfortable continuing the historical progression of dividend increases.

Walter Piecyk asked for a competitive analysis of Amazon's Project Kuiper, including whether Telesat sees them in RFP processes, and if Kuiper's integration with AWS provides a significant advantage. He also revisited the topic of direct-to-device connectivity, questioning if Telesat has any interest in acquiring spectrum or modifying its satellites for this market, given recent moves by competitors.

Answer

President & CEO Daniel Goldberg stated that Kuiper's emergence was expected and that they will be a capable competitor, likely leveraging the broader Amazon ecosystem including AWS. He assumes Kuiper is active in RFP processes but noted nothing has changed in Telesat's strategy. Goldberg reiterated that Telesat is '1000% focused' on its core enterprise broadband mission and has no plans to pursue the direct-to-device market, as its satellites are not designed for it and the company lacks the necessary spectrum.

Walter Piecyk of LightShed Partners inquired about the status of negotiations with Viasat for LEO capacity, the potential structure of an agreement, the visibility of LEO-specific operating expenses, and the competitive impact of Kuiper.

Answer

President and CEO Daniel Goldberg confirmed advanced negotiations with Viasat, emphasizing the focus is on a take-or-pay customer contract rather than an equity deal. He highlighted that LEO OpEx guidance (CAD 110-120 million for 2025) is explicitly broken out in company disclosures. Goldberg also stated that Telesat's strategy has always accounted for the market entry of capable competitors like Kuiper.

Walter Piecyk sought clarification on the DISH renewal terms, the status of Viasat discussions, whether Telesat was approached to add other spectrum bands to Lightspeed, and if the plan to report bookings implies some are already signed.

Answer

CEO Dan Goldberg clarified the DISH renewal represents a ~70% reduction in cash payments, not a 30% reduction. He affirmed discussions with Viasat are ongoing but no contract is signed. On spectrum, he noted that while the current satellites have no scope for additional payloads like L-band, the underlying MDA bus is capable, leaving open future possibilities. Regarding bookings, Goldberg was cautious, stating they will begin disclosing LEO backlog in the new year but did not confirm any specific signings, emphasizing a focus on managing expectations.

Walter Piecyk asked for commentary on the competitive dynamic with Bait in Mexico, noting that América Móvil's prepaid performance improved while Bait's appeared to worsen. He also inquired about how the company plans to compete with Bait's potential entry into the postpaid market.

Answer

CEO Daniel Hajj Aboumrad attributed his company's prepaid improvement in Mexico to a strengthening economy and a superior network. He expressed difficulty in understanding and comparing Bait's reported numbers. He suggested that as new entrants grow their subscriber base, it becomes more challenging to maintain that base and continue growing, which may be what is happening with their competitor.

Walter Piecyk asked for commentary on the competitive impact of Bait in Mexico, noting that América Móvil's prepaid performance improved while Bait's seemed to worsen. He also inquired about how the company would compete with Bait's potential move into the postpaid market.

Answer

CEO Daniel Hajj Aboumrad attributed his company's prepaid improvement to a bettering economy and a superior network, rather than a specific competitor's weakness. He stated that he finds Bait's reported numbers difficult to understand and compare. He suggested that as new entrants grow their subscriber base, it becomes more challenging to maintain that base and continue growing at the same pace.

Walter Piecyk asked about the potential impact of tariffs on handsets, Mexico's trade relationship with China, and the expected timeline for economic recovery in Mexico given recent consumer demand issues.

Answer

CEO Daniel Hajj Aboumrad confirmed there are currently no changes to handset tariffs and none are expected in the coming months. Executive Carlos Jose Garcia Moreno Elizondo addressed the economic outlook, attributing the slowdown to a confluence of elections, rising real interest rates, and fiscal tightening. He expressed confidence that the bottom was reached in Q1 and expects a recovery in the second half of the year as these pressures ease.

Representing Walter Piecyk, an analyst asked for clarification on why CapEx is trending towards the low end of the guided range despite including Chile, and requested an update on the company's satellite-to-cell initiatives with partners like SpaceX and AST.

Answer

CEO Daniel Hajj Aboumrad reiterated the company's commitment to its MXN 22 billion three-year CapEx plan, which now incorporates Chile, and stated they do not expect to reach the high end of the range. He explained that current satellite partnerships, primarily with OneWeb, are focused on using low-orbit satellites for network backbone in rural areas, not for direct-to-device services, which are still under evaluation.

Walter Piecyk of LightShed Partners asked for management's macro outlook on Latin America based on customer trends like recharges and upgrades, and inquired about their partnerships for satellite-to-phone connectivity.

Answer

Executive Daniel Hajj Aboumrad explained that prepaid activity is closely tied to economic conditions, while postpaid is seeing strong, continued growth from 5G upgrades. Executive Carlos Jose Garcia Moreno Elizondo added that prepaid revenue growth in Mexico has remained stable at 4.1%, showing resilience. Regarding satellite connectivity, they confirmed using multiple partners like Starlink, SpaceX, and AST for mobile backhaul and are exploring direct-to-device services, noting an existing resell agreement with Starlink.

Walter Piecyk asked for the reasoning behind requiring partner Aurora to put a driver back in its autonomous truck after a driver-out run and what milestones PACCAR needs to see to permit driver-out operations.

Answer

CEO & Director R. Preston Feight stated that while partners like Aurora are making good progress, safety is PACCAR's most fundamental principle. He asserted that having a driver in the truck is 'the smartest idea' and how PACCAR is operating. He declined to discuss specific production timelines but said that full, validated production completion is the prerequisite for such conversations.

Walter Piecyk of LightShed Ventures questioned PACCAR's reasoning for requiring its partner Aurora to put a driver back in its autonomous trucks after successful driver-out tests and asked what milestones are needed for approval.

Answer

CEO & Director R. Preston Feight stated that while progress in autonomy is strong, safety is PACCAR's most fundamental principle, making a driver-in approach 'the smartest idea' for now. He declined to specify milestones, stating that such steps would only be considered when the technology is 'fully production, validated, completed production.'

Walter Piecyk asked about the impact of DISH's potential spectrum leasing on its contracts with SBA and its longer-term network plans. He also inquired about any inbound interest from cable companies, like Comcast, regarding tower usage for their own spectrum, including CBRS.

Answer

President and CEO Brendan Cavanagh stated there have been no specific conversations with DISH about spectrum leasing, noting their contract would require a new conversation if spectrum changed hands. He characterized DISH's current leasing activity as slow but focused on their greenfield network. Regarding cable companies, he reported very limited and immaterial conversations, with no significant developments on tower usage or CBRS deployment.

Walter Piecyk asked about the typical implementation time for a new co-location and questioned the company's dividend policy, specifically regarding the future growth rate and whether there is a target floor.

Answer

President and CEO Brendan Cavanagh estimated the timeframe from order to revenue for a co-location is approximately nine months. Regarding the dividend, he stated there is no explicit growth floor but expects SBA to remain among the fastest-growing dividend payers in the REIT sector. He noted the pace of growth is influenced by the burn-off of NOLs, with the next increase to be decided with Q4 results.

Walter Piecyk of LightShed Partners sought details on new direct-to-device features, their expected longevity in the market, and anecdotal data on where the service is being used. He also questioned the ease with which competitors could implement standardized NTN technology on Android devices to compete with Globalstar's offering.

Answer

CEO Paul Jacobs stated he could not detail new features due to customer confidentiality. He expressed skepticism about the business model for high-bandwidth services outside of cellular coverage, emphasizing the proven value of safety features. He noted usage occurs in remote areas and during natural disasters. Regarding competitive standards, Jacobs argued that the NTN standard is complex, less efficient, and requires significant additional work for LEO implementation, suggesting it is not a simple path for competitors.

Walter Piecyk asked for quantification of network usage during recent hurricanes, details on user location for the consumer product, the timeline for generating interest in the new constellation, and an update on next year's satellite launches.

Answer

CEO Paul Jacobs stated that while network power usage increased "dramatically" during the hurricanes, a specific quantification wouldn't be meaningful. He declined to provide user location data, citing customer confidentiality, but noted his team could not substantiate service availability claims made by competitors in the area. He mentioned that discussions about the new constellation's capabilities have begun with partners, and confirmed that the satellite launches for next year are progressing as expected.