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    Waqar Syed

    Research Analyst at ATB Capital Markets

    Waqar Syed is Head of Equity Research at ATB Capital Markets, specializing in coverage of North American energy services with a focus on oilfield services and equipment. He provides fundamental research on a range of companies including Baker Hughes, Calfrac Well Services, Ensign Energy Services, Halliburton, Helmerich & Payne, Liberty Energy, Nabors Industries, National Oilwell Varco, Nine Energy Service, Patterson-UTI Energy, Precision Drilling, ProPetro Holding, Schlumberger, STEP Energy Services, TechnipFMC, and Trican Well Service. Over his recent review period, Syed’s analyst performance has included a 23.53% success rate and an average return of -39.2% across 22 public stock ratings, ranking him 4,112th out of 4,842 analysts tracked, while his insights remain influential in sector assessments and target price setting. Syed began at AltaCorp as Managing Director and Head of U.S. Institutional Research in January 2019 and transitioned to ATB Capital Markets through the firm’s subsequent integration, now holding FINRA registration and relevant U.S. securities licenses to lead cross-border research coverage.

    Waqar Syed's questions to Nine Energy Service (NINE) leadership

    Waqar Syed's questions to Nine Energy Service (NINE) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Waqar Syed of ATB Capital Markets inquired about the basis for expecting private operators to reduce activity, visibility into Q4 2025 and Q1 2026, and details on the growth in international sales, including product drivers and second-half outlook.

    Answer

    President and CEO Ann Fox explained that the expectation for private operators is based on their historical tendency to react quickly to commodity price shifts, not specific customer discussions. Fox noted no specific visibility for Q4 but mentioned some Permian customers have indicated a potential activity increase in Q1 2026. She attributed the 20% H1 international tool revenue growth to strong sales of plugs and multi-cycle barrier valves in Argentina and the Middle East, adding that while the market is lumpy, full-year 2025 international sales are expected to be up over 2024.

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    Waqar Syed's questions to Nine Energy Service (NINE) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Inquired about the potential impact of tariffs on input costs, the business segments driving Q1 growth, expectations for international revenue, the timing of a natural gas activity recovery, and the effect of current oil prices on Permian activity.

    Answer

    The executive stated that any tariff impacts, especially on steel, would be passed through to customers. The strong Q1 guidance is driven by cementing, followed by tools and coiled tubing. A natural gas activity recovery is anticipated in Q2, starting in Appalachia. They believe Permian activity can be sustained with oil prices at or above $65 per barrel.

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    Waqar Syed's questions to Nine Energy Service (NINE) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Waqar Syed of ATB Capital Markets inquired about the year-over-year performance of international sales, the adjusted EBITDA level required for free cash flow breakeven, the sustainability of recent cost reductions, and customer sentiment in natural gas basins like the Haynesville and Appalachia.

    Answer

    President and CEO Ann Fox stated that while international sales are slightly lower year-to-date, she is optimistic about future growth and is actively pursuing expansion. She noted that approximately $15 million in quarterly adjusted EBITDA would achieve cash flow neutrality and confirmed that recent cost cuts are "very sticky" and have fundamentally improved incremental margins. Regarding natural gas markets, Fox explained that customers believe in long-term demand and that a natural gas price with a "3 handle" would likely spur activity, with the Haynesville potentially requiring a slightly higher price.

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    Waqar Syed's questions to PRECISION DRILLING (PDS) leadership

    Waqar Syed's questions to PRECISION DRILLING (PDS) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Waqar Syed of ATB Capital Markets asked about the technical capabilities of the upgraded U.S. rigs compared to other top-tier rigs and what clients aim to achieve with them, such as drilling longer laterals or horseshoe wells.

    Answer

    President and CEO Kevin Neveu stated the upgrades position their rigs at the 'point of the arrow' in terms of capability, with peak hook loads and mud pump sizes. He emphasized that combining this enhanced hardware with Precision's comprehensive Alpha automation technology creates a unique service offering. Neveu confirmed the rigs are being designed to meet client demand for drilling the longest-reach horizontal wells, including four-mile laterals, in plays like the Haynesville and Marcellus.

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    Waqar Syed's questions to PRECISION DRILLING (PDS) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Waqar Syed of ATB Capital Markets inquired about the costs for rig reactivations, the impact of trade tariffs on expenses, and whether Precision is experiencing pricing pressure in Canada.

    Answer

    CFO Carey Ford estimated rig reactivation costs at $500k to $1M and noted that tariff impacts are manageable, primarily affecting drill pipe for which the company is well-stocked. CEO Kevin Neveu firmly stated that despite customer pressure, Precision is focused on maintaining and increasing margins in Canada through efficiency and is not projecting any price reductions.

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    Waqar Syed's questions to PRECISION DRILLING (PDS) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Waqar Syed asked about Precision's international operations, focusing on a contract expiring in the second half and the confidence in maintaining the current rig count. He also inquired about winter seasonality in the U.S. Rockies and the quantitative impact of FX and inflation on the CapEx budget.

    Answer

    President and CEO Kevin Neveu expressed high confidence the international rig count would remain at 8, noting they will seek an extension for the rig in Kuwait and have other active bids available. He confirmed seasonal downtime for 2 rigs in the Rockies, which are expected back in the spring. CFO Carey Ford quantified the impact of the weaker Canadian dollar, stating it accounted for an approximate $8 million increase in the year-over-year maintenance capital budget.

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    Waqar Syed's questions to PRECISION DRILLING (PDS) leadership • Q2 2024

    Question

    Waqar Syed asked about Precision's long-term strategic evolution in light of peer M&A, and the timing for achieving its sub-1x leverage target and increasing shareholder returns to 50% of free cash flow.

    Answer

    CEO Kevin Neveu stated that while Precision is open to opportunistic tuck-in acquisitions, it has no strategic objective to enter new service lines or make large international bets. CFO Carey Ford projected that the sub-1x leverage target could be reached in 2025, sooner than previously thought. He confirmed this year's returns are via buybacks and future capital return strategies will be evaluated as leverage goals are met.

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    Waqar Syed's questions to NABORS INDUSTRIES (NBR) leadership

    Waqar Syed's questions to NABORS INDUSTRIES (NBR) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Waqar Syed from ATB Capital Markets asked about the potential risks to Nabors' legacy rigs in Saudi Arabia following recent market-wide rig releases. He also questioned whether the Q3 guidance for U.S. Lower 48 drilling margins at $13,300 per day represents a bottom for the cycle.

    Answer

    CEO Anthony Petrello addressed the Saudi market, noting that while the overall land rig count has decreased, SANAD's rig count has increased by four. He highlighted that over 75% of SANAD's fleet is suited for gas drilling, aligning with the Kingdom's focus. CFO William Restrepo commented on margins, stating that leading-edge day rates have remained stable above $30,000 for several quarters, which gives him confidence that margins should sustain above the $13,000 level after the third quarter.

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    Waqar Syed's questions to NABORS INDUSTRIES (NBR) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Waqar Syed from ATB Capital Markets asked about the potential risks to Nabors' legacy rigs in Saudi Arabia following recent market-wide rig releases. He also questioned if the guided Q3 U.S. Lower 48 daily drilling margin of $13,300 represents a bottom or if further declines are expected as more rigs reprice.

    Answer

    CEO Anthony Petrello addressed the Saudi market, explaining that the rig count reduction is part of a strategic shift from oil to gas drilling, and SANAD is well-positioned with a gas-focused fleet and a strong newbuild program. CFO William Restrepo commented on margins, stating that while some erosion will continue in Q3 as contracts reprice, the stability of leading-edge day rates above $30,000 for several quarters gives him confidence that margins can be sustained above the $13,000 level.

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    Waqar Syed's questions to NABORS INDUSTRIES (NBR) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Waqar Syed asked about the potential risk to Nabors' legacy rigs in Saudi Arabia amid market-wide rig releases and questioned whether the Q3 guidance for U.S. Lower 48 drilling margins of $13,300 represents a floor.

    Answer

    CEO Anthony Petrello detailed the rig count reduction in Saudi Arabia, noting that Nabors' SANAD joint venture has actually increased its rig count and is well-positioned with its gas-focused fleet. CFO William Restrepo added that while margins are eroding toward stable leading-edge day rates, he expects them to sustain above the $13,000 level once the fleet reprices.

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    Waqar Syed's questions to NABORS INDUSTRIES (NBR) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Waqar Syed from ATB Capital Markets asked about the potential risks to Nabors' legacy rigs in Saudi Arabia amid market-wide rig suspensions. He also questioned if the guided Q3 U.S. Lower 48 drilling margins of $13,300 per day represent a bottom for the cycle.

    Answer

    CEO Anthony Petrello addressed the Saudi market, explaining that while the overall land rig count has decreased, Nabors' SANAD joint venture has increased its rig count by four. He noted SANAD is well-positioned due to its focus on gas drilling and the strong commitment from Aramco to the newbuild program. CFO William Restrepo commented on margins, stating that the stability of leading-edge day rates above $30,000 for several quarters is encouraging. He believes that after some further erosion in Q3, margins should be sustainable around the $13,000 level.

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    Waqar Syed's questions to NABORS INDUSTRIES (NBR) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Waqar Syed inquired about the certainty of a rig restart in Mexico with Pemex and asked which business segment would be most affected by potential U.S. tariffs.

    Answer

    Chairman, President & CEO Anthony Petrello confirmed Pemex is keen to restart the rig, though payment issues remain a focus. CFO William Restrepo added that while they collected on invoices in Q1, they are working on a larger payment. Regarding tariffs, Restrepo explained the impact would be on spares and pumps, not primarily drill pipe, and that the company can mitigate the estimated $10-$20 million impact by using alternate vendors and adjusting logistics.

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    Waqar Syed's questions to ProPetro Holding (PUMP) leadership

    Waqar Syed's questions to ProPetro Holding (PUMP) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Waqar Syed asked about the potential impact of declining completion activity on Permian production, the mix of working fleets between next-gen and diesel, and the performance trajectory for the Wireline and Cementing segments.

    Answer

    CEO Sam Sledge opined that current activity levels are likely insufficient to sustain Permian production long-term. He confirmed that while some diesel equipment is working, next-gen fleets are more resilient, and some Tier 4 DGB equipment is down. He added that Wireline performance will track fracking, while Cementing's larger decline was due to the full-quarter impact of lower rig counts.

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    Waqar Syed's questions to ProPetro Holding (PUMP) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Waqar Syed of ATB Capital Markets sought projections on the number of active frac crews in the Permian by June, given commodity prices. He also asked if the reduced CapEx guidance was due to lower activity or cost optimization, and questioned the rationale for using a mix of turbines and reciprocating engines for the mobile power business.

    Answer

    CEO Sam Sledge projected a potential downtick to 75-85 active fleets in the Permian by summer and confirmed the CapEx reduction was driven almost entirely by successful cost optimization and extending equipment life, not lower activity. He explained the mix of power generation equipment provides strategic flexibility to serve diverse applications and navigate supply chain constraints. Executive Matt Augustine added the CapEx range reflects flexibility for activity levels.

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    Waqar Syed's questions to ProPetro Holding (PUMP) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Waqar Syed asked a series of questions covering Q1 2025 guidance, the progress of the AquaProp acquisition, the pricing environment for Cementing and Wireline, the impact of E&P consolidation, the timing of the fifth e-fleet, and how ProPetro is mitigating operational risks for the new PROPWR business.

    Answer

    CEO Sam Sledge indicated Q1 performance should be similar to Q2/Q3 of last year and noted the Cementing business is a 'bright spot' while Wireline pricing is weaker. He stated the fifth e-fleet is due mid-year and viewed E&P consolidation as healthy. To mitigate PROPWR risk, Sledge emphasized building a strong team and leveraging ProPetro's existing operational infrastructure. CFO David Schorlemer reiterated the 14-15 fleet count guidance for Q1 but did not provide specific revenue or EBITDA targets.

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    Waqar Syed's questions to ProPetro Holding (PUMP) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Waqar Syed sought clarification on the expected Q4 revenue change, the rationale for a sharp decline in payables, and the comparative economics and financing structure (lease vs. buy) for upcoming FORCE electric fleets.

    Answer

    CFO David Schorlemer projected a low-double-digit sequential revenue decline for Q4, driven by normal seasonality. CEO Sam Sledge explained the working capital change was a strategic supply chain decision to build goodwill and secure supplier discounts. Regarding future fleets, Sledge noted that e-fleet pricing is trending slightly up, and both he and Schorlemer emphasized that the lease-versus-buy decision is dynamic, based on which option offers the most value within their overall capital allocation strategy.

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    Waqar Syed's questions to Helmerich & Payne (HP) leadership

    Waqar Syed's questions to Helmerich & Payne (HP) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Waqar Syed from ATB Capital Markets questioned whether the acquired KCA Deutag rigs need additional capital to achieve H&P's high-performance standards and asked about the outlook for day rates and super-spec rig supply/demand in the U.S. market.

    Answer

    President and CEO John Lindsay explained that the international market is different (mostly conventional drilling) and that improving performance is a long-term goal involving deploying H&P's performance culture, processes, and technology, with customers already showing interest. Regarding the U.S. market, Lindsay acknowledged softness in pricing but emphasized that the super-spec market remains relatively tight due to many rigs being idle for extended periods. He stressed that H&P's value proposition is lowering well costs through efficiency and technology, not just low day rates.

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    Waqar Syed's questions to Helmerich & Payne (HP) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Waqar Syed questioned the potential for deploying H&P's drilling technology on the international and legacy KCA Deutag rig fleets and asked about the expected recognition timeline for KCAD's $5.5 billion contract backlog.

    Answer

    President and CEO John Lindsay confirmed a significant, margin-accretive opportunity exists to deploy H&P's technology on both legacy and newly acquired international rigs, stating that internal teams are actively developing these plans. Regarding the backlog, Lindsay said a detailed recognition timeline was not yet available but praised the finance team's efforts in managing the complex acquisition closing.

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    Waqar Syed's questions to Liberty Energy (LBRT) leadership

    Waqar Syed's questions to Liberty Energy (LBRT) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Waqar Syed asked how activity would trend if WTI stayed at $60/barrel, whether recent price cuts have fully impacted results, and if customers are seeking further price reductions.

    Answer

    CEO Ron Gusek projected only "modest ripples" in activity at $60 WTI, with a more significant but not catastrophic pullback if prices fall into the $50s. He confirmed that all prior pricing adjustments were fully implemented in Q1 and stated that customers recognize service pricing is at a sustainable level and are not currently asking for additional cuts.

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    Waqar Syed's questions to Liberty Energy (LBRT) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Waqar Syed from ATB Capital Markets asked about the inventory of drilled wells that are not yet connected to pipelines and the key regional opportunities for Liberty's new power business.

    Answer

    CEO Ron Gusek acknowledged the inventory of such wells but did not provide a specific size, noting they would likely come online with stronger gas prices. For the power business, he identified Texas as the primary area for initial deployments due to high demand, with the East Coast also presenting opportunities. He stressed the company's approach will be thoughtful and focused to ensure high service quality.

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    Waqar Syed's questions to Liberty Energy (LBRT) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Waqar Syed inquired about the timeline for Liberty Power Innovations (LPI) to contribute materially to revenue. He also asked which basins are expected to see an activity pickup next year and whether current pricing pressures are affecting all fleet types or are still concentrated in lower tiers.

    Answer

    CEO Christopher Wright suggested a 2-to-3 year timeframe for LPI to have a material impact is a 'not unreasonable expectation.' He anticipates a broad-based activity increase across oil basins within six months and a likely pickup from low levels in gas basins. Regarding pricing, he noted that while pressure is strongest on legacy equipment, the soft market creates 'a little bit of pressure everywhere,' though newbuild fleets continue to command strong economics.

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    Waqar Syed's questions to PATTERSON UTI ENERGY (PTEN) leadership

    Waqar Syed's questions to PATTERSON UTI ENERGY (PTEN) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Waqar Syed asked for the planned 2025 CapEx allocation between business segments, whether current U.S. drilling margins represent a bottom, and the outlook for the completions business beyond the first quarter.

    Answer

    CFO C. Smith detailed the 2025 CapEx allocation: approximately 35% to drilling, 50% to completions, and the remainder to products and other segments. CEO William Hendricks stated that drilling rig pricing is relatively steady and sees potential for slight margin improvement. For completions, he anticipates a tight market in Q2 and Q3 as natural gas-powered equipment is expected to be fully utilized, which could be a challenge for the industry if activity increases.

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    Waqar Syed's questions to PATTERSON UTI ENERGY (PTEN) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Waqar Syed asked about plans for new e-fleet builds in 2025, how current e-fleets are deployed, the fleet's composition of Tier 4 DGB and electric horsepower, and whether the Q4 drilling margin guidance represents a bottom.

    Answer

    CEO William Hendricks confirmed plans to invest in new high-tech, 100% natural gas-burning equipment within a lower 2025 CapEx budget. He explained e-fleets are deployed in various configurations, including as standalone fleets and as supplements to Tier 4 DGB fleets. He estimated about 70% of the active fleet is Tier 4 DGB or electric. Regarding drilling margins, he noted things are relatively steady but deferred a definitive call on the bottom.

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    Waqar Syed's questions to NOV (NOV) leadership

    Waqar Syed's questions to NOV (NOV) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Waqar Syed asked how NOV would benefit from increased North American natural gas activity beyond drilling and completions, and also inquired about the potential for future jack-up rig orders from the Middle East following a recent booking.

    Answer

    CEO Clay Williams detailed NOV's broad exposure to the natural gas value chain, including market leadership in upstream D&C technologies, production chokes, composite flow lines, and natural gas dehydration systems. CFO Jose Bayardo added context on FLNG processing systems. Regarding the jack-up order, Williams confirmed it's for a new shipyard in Saudi Arabia and expressed confidence in future orders, but declined to provide a specific timeline or frequency.

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    Waqar Syed's questions to TechnipFMC (FTI) leadership

    Waqar Syed's questions to TechnipFMC (FTI) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Waqar Syed asked about the 2025 growth outlook for the Surface Technologies business in international markets and whether the Middle East's shift to unconventional gas presents new opportunities for the company.

    Answer

    Chair and CEO Douglas Pferdehirt expressed confidence in the international Surface business, citing both strong market activity and the benefits from FTI's specific investments in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. He confirmed that the move toward unconventional gas is a positive trend for FTI, as it requires higher-specification equipment, which aligns with the company's product and service offerings in the region.

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