Will Nance

Will Nance requested a deeper dive into performance trends by vertical, specifically asking about the basis for commentary on same-store sales in the back half of the year. He also asked about the drivers of OpEx management and when operating expenses might need to grow again.

Answer

CFO Aggie Doceva detailed that travel and payments continued to perform strongly, while the tickets category softened in Q2 after explosive growth in 2024, facing tougher comps in the second half. She noted fashion has seen some stability despite negative same-store sales. On OpEx, Doceva attributed the control to offshoring activities and timing of backfills, guiding to a run rate of approximately $38.5 million for the back half of the year.

Will Nance with Goldman Sachs asked about Chime Card rollout expectations, specifically attach rates for new cohorts and its prioritization as a primary customer experience. He also sought clarification on rewards costs for direct deposit customers and how they are booked.

Answer

Chris Britt, Co-founder and CEO, reported that new members adopting the Chime Card show 80% of their Chime ecosystem purchase volume as credit spend, with ongoing rollout to existing members. Matt Newcomb, CFO, clarified that the 175 basis points interchange rate for the Chime Card is already net of rewards expense, as rewards are booked as contra-revenue. Will Nance also inquired about OIT adoption and its impact on payment volume trends. Matt Newcomb confirmed that OIT adoption is expected to grow faster in the coming quarters, continuing the shift from payments to platform revenue, as newer cohorts adopt it at higher rates.

Will Nance from Goldman Sachs asked about the Chime Card rollout, specifically expectations for attach rates on new cohorts and its prioritization for new customers. He also sought clarification on the 175 basis points interchange rate, asking if it was net of rewards costs and how rewards would be booked.

Answer

Chris Britt, Co-founder and CEO, reported that new members adopting the Chime Card are using it for 80% of their purchase volume as credit spend, with early rollout to existing members underway. Matt Newcomb, CFO, clarified that the 175 basis points interchange rate is already net of rewards expense, as rewards are booked as contra-revenue. Will Nance followed up on Outbound Instant Transfers (OIT), asking if the substitution effect from 'pull' to 'push' was leveling out or expected to continue growing faster than sequential payment volume changes. Matt Newcomb confirmed that OIT is expected to grow faster in the coming quarters, continuing the mixed shift from payments to platform revenue, especially as newer cohorts adopt it at higher rates.

Asked about the recent trend of lower spend per customer and how to model it, and questioned the potential impact of proposed bank fees for data access on the economics of the MyPay product for non-direct deposit users.

Answer

The lower spend per customer is a mix-shift effect from successfully acquiring new, lighter-weight users at the top of the funnel, which is considered a good investment. Underlying spend for tenured, primary users remains healthy and stable. Regarding proposed bank fees, Chime believes it would be minimally impacted due to owning the primary account relationship and could even be a net beneficiary. The impact on the 'MyPay Day One' experiment would be negligible.

Will Nance asked for an explanation of the recent decline in spend volume per customer and inquired about the potential impact of proposed bank data access fees on the economics of Chime's MyPay product.

Answer

CEO Chris Britt and CFO Matt Newcomb clarified that the decline in spend per active member is a result of a mix shift from 'widening the funnel' to include lighter-weight new users, while spending from tenured, primary account holders remains healthy and growing. Regarding data fees, management believes Chime is insulated because it owns the primary account relationship and data, with COO Mark Troughton adding that such a change could even be a net benefit to Chime.

Will Nance from Goldman Sachs asked about the sustainability of Toast's market share gains in the core SMB business amidst heightened competition, inquiring about competitive concerns, the reported increase in win rates against peers, and the timeline for doubling market share.

Answer

CEO Aman Narang highlighted the team's strong Q3 performance and execution, noting increased net adds and year-over-year win rates against all major competitors in both QSR and FSR. He attributed this success to the go-to-market team's ability to maximize location growth and the core platform's continuous customer-focused innovation, such as Toast IQ.

Will Nance inquired about competitive concerns, the sustainability of Toast's recent market share gains, and the projected timeline to achieve the goal of doubling market share in the core business, given increased competitor focus.

Answer

CEO Aman Narang highlighted the team's strong Q3 performance and consistent year-over-year net adds. He stated that win rates are up against all major competitors in both QSR and FSR, attributing this to strong go-to-market execution and the purpose-built, innovative core platform. He noted that core net adds are in the same range as last year, indicating sustained market share gains.

Will Nance inquired about the new disclosure of retail ARPU exceeding $10,000, asking for context on its composition and the product roadmap for the vertical. He also asked about the macroeconomic drivers of GPV per location trends.

Answer

CEO Aman Narang explained that the rapid growth in retail ARPU validates the market opportunity and justifies further investment in sales and product, particularly in specialized inventory tools. Regarding GPV, he noted that overall GPV per location was down 1%, remaining in a narrow band, and that while the retail segment has higher GPV, it is still a small part of the overall mix.

Will Nance (Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC) asked for quantification of the run-rate financial impacts and P&L geography related to the Blue Owl offloading. He also inquired if Buy Now, Pay Later volumes exhibit a different geographical skew compared to the overall branded volumes (40% U.S., 60% international) and sought color on regional adoption and penetration.

Answer

CEO Alex Chriss clarified that less than 30% of Buy Now, Pay Later originations are U.S.-based, indicating a global business with expansion into new geographies like Canada and in-store options. He highlighted BNPL's role in driving customer engagement and TPV uplift, emphasizing PayPal's strategy to offer flexible payment options across all commerce channels. CFO Jamie Miller noted that the Blue Owl offloading had a small, net-neutral impact on Q3 operating income and a minor effect on the 2026 OpEx run rate.

Will Nance inquired about the financial impacts of the Blue Owl offloading on BNPL volumes, asking for quantification and P&L geography. He also sought clarification on whether BNPL volumes skew differently geographically compared to the 40% U.S./60% international split for branded numbers, and details on adoption and penetration trends.

Answer

CEO Alex Chriss stated that less than 30% of BNPL originations are currently in the U.S., indicating a global business. He highlighted the expansion of BNPL into upstream presentment and omnichannel (in-store) offerings, noting the flywheel effect where BNPL use leads to a 35% uplift in overall TPV engagement. Alex Chriss emphasized meeting customers where and how they want to pay. CFO Jamie Miller mentioned a small, net-neutral impact from Blue Owl in Q3 on operating income, with a small increase to 2026 OpEx run rate.

Will Nance inquired about the improving trends in the LACA region, asking if the company is starting to hit easier comparisons and lap previous changes in migration patterns.

Answer

Devin McGranahan (CEO) attributed the better LACA trends to overall market stability and the lapping effects of significant changes from last year, including elections and the closure of the Darién Gap.

Will Nance inquired about the improved trends observed in the LATA (Latin America and the Caribbean) region during the quarter, asking if this was due to easier comparisons from previous migration pattern changes and how these trends might evolve in the near term.

Answer

CEO Devin McGranahan attributed the improvement to overall market stability and the lapping effects of declines from the previous year, which were impacted by elections and events like the Darien Gap closure. He noted that the region is now a year into significant changes in outlook and trajectory.

Will Nance asked for clarification on the drivers of the digital transaction deceleration and inquired about the strategic opportunity in providing on-ramp/off-ramp solutions for third-party stablecoin ecosystems.

Answer

CFO Matt Cagwin clarified that Western Union's digital definition is based on origination channel, noting a slowdown in digital U.S. outbound to Latin America. CEO Devin McGranahan added that payout-to-account transactions also slowed. Regarding stablecoins, McGranahan explained that WU's value is in converting stablecoins to local fiat currency, a difficult process where their global infrastructure excels. He confirmed high interest from third parties and active pilots in South America and Africa.

Will Nance of Goldman Sachs inquired about the funding environment, noting the wide-open capital markets and asking about the potential risk of credit issues arising from an oversupply of funding to lower-quality competitors.

Answer

COO Michael Linford explained that Affirm mitigates this risk by being highly selective and partnering with 'blue chip' asset managers for the long term, rather than chasing the lowest bid. He stated that their focus on partnership quality and long-term strategy insulates them from the behavior of competitors with different funding approaches.

Will Nance from Goldman Sachs inquired about the company's updated capital allocation priorities given the improved free cash flow outlook. He also asked for an update on the asset review and internal efficiency initiatives since Greg Adelson became CEO.

Answer

CFO & Treasurer Mimi Carsley stated that with zero debt and strong free cash flow conversion, the company has more flexibility and intends to increase share repurchases while remaining open to M&A. President & CEO Greg Adelson confirmed that asset review remains a priority, noting they have announced the end-of-life for nine products, including NetTeller, and are still evaluating potential asset sales.

Will Nance from Goldman Sachs inquired about the expected impact of U.S. de minimis exemption changes on back-half results, the financial contribution of the ReturnGo acquisition to the 2025 guidance, and the drivers behind increased sales and marketing spending.

Answer

Co-Founder and CEO Amir Schlachet stated that while there is uncertainty, the company does not expect a meaningful impact from de minimis changes, as this is factored into the guidance and mitigation strategies are in place. CFO Ofer Koren detailed that ReturnGo is expected to add approximately $1 million in revenue with a negative $1 million impact on adjusted EBITDA in 2025, becoming neutral by 2026. Koren also explained that the rise in S&M spending is due to higher GMV-related rev-share with Shopify and strategic investments in hiring more sales personnel.

Will Nance sought to understand the path back to 20% ARR growth, asking about the puts and takes for acceleration and the rationale behind pausing existing TASK rollouts to pursue new, larger deals.

Answer

CEO Savneet Singh explained that achieving 20% growth is challenging due to a lower starting ARR base from a slow H1, slower-than-expected rollouts of contracted revenue, and the strategic decision to pause TASK revenue. He clarified the TASK pause was due to development capacity constraints, as the team needed to focus resources on configuring the product for major global Tier 1 prospects, a high-ROI trade-off. CFO Bryan Menar added that lapping the slower H1 2025 will mathematically help the growth rate in 2026.

Will Nance from Goldman Sachs requested an update on the progress of cost-saving initiatives and asked about the specifics of the Buffalo Wild Wings renewal, including whether it was a competitive process.

Answer

CFO Brian Webb-Walsh detailed the $100 million cost program, noting 60% of the savings will be realized in the second half. Restaurants President Benny Tadele and CEO James Kelly explained the Buffalo Wild Wings win was driven by an improved sales team, a strong product roadmap, and a renewed focus on executive engagement with key enterprise clients post-spin.

Will Nance asked for more detail on the Remitly Wallet, focusing on the target customer profile, the strategy for cross-selling versus acquiring new customers, and how its unit economics and pricing might alter the business.

Answer

Co-Founder and CEO Matt Oppenheimer explained that the wallet, which will hold both fiat and stablecoins, initially targets Remitly's 8.5 million existing active users. He also highlighted a long-term opportunity to attract new customers, such as recent immigrants who face challenges setting up traditional bank accounts, by offering a comprehensive financial services platform.

Will Nance from Goldman Sachs asked for clarification on the B2B volume growth guidance, particularly the dynamics in the China B2B corridor, and requested a breakdown of the drivers behind the strong take rate expansion.

Answer

CFO Bea Ordonez clarified that the volatility in the smaller China B2B goods business can distort overall B2B volume growth, while the larger 'rest of world' services business remains very strong. She attributed the nine-basis-point take rate expansion to a mix of factors, including strong growth in higher-yield geographies, increased card adoption, pricing power, and the acquisition of the workforce management business, declining to decouple the specific impacts.

Will Nance inquired about the progress of European restaurant initiatives, including SkyTab installations and the Vectron cross-sell, and asked for the reasons behind the more constructive outlook on blended net spreads.

Answer

CEO Taylor Lauber reported that with formal control of Vectron now complete, production is ramping and the payments cross-sell is proceeding well. He noted that European expansion is adding smaller merchants, which supports stronger spreads as these customers value the integrated software and payments solution and are willing to pay a premium over traditional terminals.

Will Nance asked about the potential impact of large banks imposing fees for consumer data access on Mastercard's Finicity business and the broader value proposition for consumers.

Answer

CEO Michael Miebach responded that while Mastercard lacks full visibility into the banks' specific plans, the company maintains its fundamental belief in the importance of consumer-consented data sharing for open finance. He acknowledged that the economic models are still evolving but stressed that enabling consumers to use their data for better services remains a critical and winning proposition over time.

Will Nance from Goldman Sachs asked about the specific role of stablecoins in remittances, questioning whether they impact pricing or settlement and if the resulting value would benefit consumers or service providers.

Answer

CEO Ryan McInerney explained that stablecoins can enable faster and cheaper cross-border transactions in certain corridors where traditional banking infrastructure is slow. He stated that based on testing, Visa believes the value created—through speed and cost savings—will accrue to both end-users and Visa's clients, ultimately helping to accelerate the digitization of payment flows.

Will Nance of Goldman Sachs asked about the role of stablecoins in the remittance space, questioning how they would function in terms of pricing and settlement, and whether the value created would accrue to service providers or consumers.

Answer

CEO Ryan McInerney explained that stablecoins can enable faster cross-border transactions, especially in corridors reliant on slower local banking infrastructure. He noted that Visa has been testing corridors and has a good sense of where stablecoins can provide faster and cheaper money movement. He believes the value created will ultimately accrue to both end-users and Visa's clients, seeing real product-market fit for stablecoins in remittances.

Will Nance of Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. asked about the role of stablecoins in the remittance market, specifically how they affect pricing and settlement, and whether the resulting value would benefit service providers or consumers.

Answer

CEO Ryan McInerney explained that stablecoins can enable faster and cheaper cross-border transactions in certain corridors by bypassing slower local banking infrastructure. He stated that Visa has been testing these use cases and believes the value created will likely be shared between end-users and clients, ultimately helping to accelerate Visa's growth in remittances.

Will Nance of Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. questioned Fiserv's confidence in its 2026 Clover revenue target, noting that Street estimates are lower, and asked for a reasonable long-term growth rate considering volume, VAS, and potentially non-recurring hardware sales.

Answer

Robert Hau, CFO, confirmed Fiserv is on track for its $3.5 billion Clover revenue target in 2025 but did not update 2026 guidance. He disagreed that hardware sales are non-recurring, stating they are a core, profitable part of the business operating system and have been a consistent percentage of Clover revenue. Mike Lyons, CEO, added that the strategy is to build a comprehensive business operating system, not just a POS device, for a massive and underpenetrated global market.

Will Nance from Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. asked about Fiserv's confidence in its 2026 Clover revenue target, noting that Street estimates are currently below it, and questioned the sustainability of hardware sales as a growth driver.

Answer

CFO Robert Hau confirmed Fiserv is on track for its $3.5B Clover revenue goal in 2025 but did not update 2026 guidance. He asserted that current growth initiatives in vertical, horizontal, and international expansion position them well for future targets. Hau disagreed that hardware sales would not recur, stating that hardware is a profitable and core part of the business operating system, consistently representing a mid-teens percentage of Clover revenue. CEO Mike Lyons added that the focus is on building a global business operating platform with a vast, underpenetrated TAM.

Asked for more details on the factors affecting Cash App's monthly active user count, including enhancements to the ecosystem and a strategic pullback in marketing.

Answer

Amrita Ahuja explained that the 'enhancements' refer to changes in the onboarding flow to better understand customers and promote a healthy ecosystem, which has not negatively impacted engagement, as inflows per active grew 10% YoY. The marketing spend was pulled back in the first half to refine the 'bank the base' strategy and is now set to ramp up in the second half. She highlighted significant room for user growth, particularly within the Gen Z and millennial demographics.

Will Nance from Goldman Sachs asked if the company could still achieve its revenue guidance if interest rates fall in line with the forward curve, which implies more cuts than the company's base assumption.

Answer

CFO Steve Boyle acknowledged that if two or three rate cuts were to occur, revenues would likely be towards the lower end of the guided range, but he affirmed that the range remains appropriate. President & CEO Tim Hockey added that conservative assumptions for their new growth initiatives could provide a potential offset to the lower rate environment.

Will Nance asked about the outlook for BDA yields in a flat curve environment and for a comparison of institutional versus retail client behavior during the recent market selloff.

Answer

President and CEO Tim Hockey stated that BDA yields should continue to see pickups as maturing assets are reinvested at higher rates, despite the flat curve. CFO Steve Boyle and Hockey noted that retail clients were slightly more positive on equities during the selloff, while institutional clients repositioned more quickly. Hockey added that money market fund flows were not unusually pronounced.