William Appicelli

William Appicelli questioned Ameren's updated plan regarding customer bill impact, particularly in Missouri, and whether the benefits from the executed ESAs would help mitigate this impact. He also sought clarification on the 3.4 GW of construction agreements and inquired about the timing for rolling ESA benefits into future guidance.

Answer

Marty Lyons, Chairman, President, and CEO, emphasized Ameren's focus on affordability and disciplined cost control, aiming to keep O&M growth below inflation. He clarified that Senate Bill 4 and the approved tariff ensure data centers pay their fair share, protecting existing customers and potentially providing benefits. He confirmed the 3.4 GW includes the 2.2 GW of ESAs and stated that Ameren would monitor milestones and other drivers, not ruling out a guidance update on a future quarterly call.

William Apicelli asked about Ameren's perspective on affordability, outlining the expected customer bill impact of the updated plan, particularly in Missouri, and whether the benefits from the Electric Service Agreements (ESAs) would help mitigate this impact. He also sought clarification on whether the 3.4 GW of construction agreements include the 2.2 GW of executed ESAs and inquired about the timeline for integrating the benefits of these ESAs into future guidance updates.

Answer

Marty Lyons, Chairman, President, and CEO, emphasized Ameren's long-standing focus on disciplined cost control, aiming to keep O&M growth below inflation, and highlighted that Missouri Senate Bill 4 and the approved tariff ensure new data centers pay their fair share, preventing burden on existing customers and potentially offering future benefits. He confirmed the 3.4 GW includes the 2.2 GW ESAs and stated that while an update to guidance isn't ruled out for a quarterly call, Ameren will monitor milestones and the upcoming Integrated Resource Plan update for greater clarity.

William Appicelli requested details on the large load tariff Ameren plans to file, asking if it would be neutral to existing customers, and also inquired about the prospects for settling the current Missouri rate case.

Answer

CEO Martin Lyons confirmed that the new tariff for large industrial customers would, at a minimum, be neutral to existing customers and that discussions on terms are progressing well. Regarding the rate case, EVP & CFO Michael Moehn stated that Ameren is in a good position for constructive settlement conversations, as the primary difference with staff recommendations is the return on equity.

William Appicelli inquired about the scale of incremental GenCo opportunities, asking if future contract sizes are expected to be smaller than the initial large Amazon announcement. He also asked if the pace of conversations has picked up and about the significance of Senate Bill 103 for large load customer opportunities in Ohio, and if these are included in current capital plans.

Answer

CEO Lloyd Yates stated that the company has not disclosed specific sizes but is in strategic negotiations for 1-3 GW, which involves a portfolio of customers of varying sizes. EVP Michael Luhrs added that the focus is on meeting criteria for stakeholders, balance sheet, speed to market, and customer benefit, rather than specific counterparty size. Michael Luhrs confirmed that the pace of conversations and the organization's speed have picked up. EVP and CFO Shawn Anderson clarified that no upside from economic development or large load customers in Ohio, including those related to Senate Bill 103, has been incorporated into the Columbia Gas, Ohio forecast yet, but they are working on optimization and could flow upsides into the plan later in the year.

William Appicelli from UBS questioned if having visibility on the Genco declination filing is the preferred outcome before filing a special contract. He also asked about the company's exposure to federal policy changes like tariffs and the IRA's tax credit transferability.

Answer

Executive Michael Luhrs reiterated that the declination filing is the preferred path as it provides the best capability to meet all stakeholder needs, though other mechanisms exist. Executive Shawn Anderson addressed federal policy, stating that most renewable projects will be online by year-end, limiting IRA risk, and that high domestic procurement mitigates tariff impacts.

William Appicelli inquired about how CMS Energy plans to manage residential bill inflation at 3% despite a 10.5% rate base growth, specifically asking about the role of the CE Way program and other affordability tools like the roll-off of higher-priced PURPA contracts. He also asked for clarification on why D&A in 2028-2029 is projected to be $100 million lower than the prior guide, despite higher CapEx.

Answer

Rejji Hayes (CFO and Executive Vice President, CMS Energy) explained that CMS Energy self-funds much of its rate base growth through episodic cost reductions, the roll-off of high-priced PPAs, and future coal plant retirements. He highlighted the significant and growing savings from the CE Way program, which delivered $100 million in savings last year. Mr. Hayes also emphasized that converting the economic development backlog, such as a 1 GW data center, could reduce the bill CAGR by 2 points, serving as a 'third leg' of affordability. Regarding the D&A question, he attributed the change to mixed depreciation rates across different asset types and offered a follow-up from the IR team.

William Appicelli inquired about how CMS Energy manages the 3% residential bill inflation amidst 10.5% rate base growth, specifically asking about the contribution of the CE Way program and other affordability tools, such as the rolling off of higher-priced PURPA contracts. He also asked for clarification on why the Depreciation & Amortization (D&A) in 2028-2029 appears to be $100 million lower than the prior guidance, despite higher CapEx.

Answer

Rejji Hayes, CFO and Executive Vice President, explained that CMS Energy self-funds rate base growth through episodic cost reductions (e.g., high-priced PPAs rolling off, eventual coal retirement) and continuous savings from the CE Way program, which delivered $100 million in savings last year. He highlighted economic development backlog conversion, such as a 1 GW data center, as a key affordability driver that could reduce the bill CAGR by 2 points. Regarding the D&A discrepancy, Mr. Hayes attributed it to a mixed effect of different depreciation rates for various assets, noting that distribution assets typically have longer lives than generation assets. He offered to provide a more detailed follow-up offline.

William Appicelli asked about the earnings trajectory beyond 7% growth as new load comes online, specifically how the 12% rate-based growth translates to earnings given equity dilution, and the assumptions for earned returns in Iowa's unique regulatory framework.

Answer

Lisa Barton (President and CEO) clarified that the 7%+ growth is a minimum, potentially 7%-8%, before upside, noting timing lumpiness. Robert Durian (EVP and CFO) explained that 12% growth includes 10% rate-base and 2% CWIP, with equity dilution being the primary factor moderating earnings growth. He confirmed Iowa's electric regulatory construct provides certainty for authorized returns with upside sharing, while gas will require future rate cases.

William Appicelli with UBS inquired about the trajectory of earnings growth beyond 7% as new load comes online, the factors contributing to the difference between 12% rate-based growth and 7-8% earnings growth, and the assumptions for earned returns in Iowa's unique regulatory framework.

Answer

Lisa Barton, President and CEO, clarified that the 7-8% earnings growth is a baseline before potential upside from known projects, emphasizing the significant 50% load growth and the importance of timing. Robert Durian, Executive Vice President and CFO, explained that the 12% rate-based growth includes both rate base and construction work in progress (QIP) growth, with equity dilution and conservative interest rate assumptions being the primary reasons for the difference from earnings growth. He also noted that in Iowa, the electric business's new regulatory construct provides certainty for earning authorized returns with potential upside shared with customers, while the gas side will require future rate cases.

William Appicelli of UBS asked for the full year-to-date weather impact on 2024 earnings and whether the 2025 guidance assumes a reversion to normal weather. He also inquired about other factors impacting year-over-year growth and the company's near-term load growth assumptions for 2025 and 2026 before the new data centers come online.

Answer

CFO Robert Durian quantified the full-year 2024 weather headwind at approximately $0.12 per share, noting that about 75% was offset by non-sustainable items like tax benefits and a reserve reversal. He explained that while weather is assumed to normalize in 2025, the absence of these one-time offsets results in a normal 6% growth off the 2024 base. He also stated that near-term load growth for 2025-2026 is expected to be in the historical 0.5% to 1% range.

William Appicelli inquired about the specific drivers for the upward revision of the full-year guidance, asked for more details on the new Austin project, and questioned the potential impact of material tariffs on operations.

Answer

CFO Christopher Sighinolfi attributed the guidance increase to strong margins from cold weather, customer growth, and effective cost management. COO Curtis Dinan clarified the Austin project is a strategic success tied to a larger system expansion, not a major standalone investment. CEO Robert McAnnally stated that direct supplier relationships have insulated the company from material tariff impacts through 2025.

William Appicelli from UBS requested an update on the timeline and potential outcomes for the Maryland 'Lessons Learned' docket, particularly regarding the future of multi-year plans (MYPs). He also asked for Exelon's perspective on addressing PJM resource adequacy concerns given the rising load demand and limited new capacity in the queue.

Answer

President and CEO Calvin Butler expressed confidence in the MYP process, stating it is the most productive approach and he expects a decision on the 'Lessons Learned' docket by the end of Q2 2025. Regarding resource adequacy, Butler advocated for a comprehensive portfolio approach, keeping all options on the table, including delaying plant closures, adding new gas generation, and utility ownership, while balancing affordability. CFO Jeanne Jones added that energy efficiency, distributed resources, and demand response are also critical components of their strategy.

William Appicelli asked for details on the West Virginia capital plan, the potential upside from the upcoming IRP, and the expected timing and form of a FERC decision on colocation.

Answer

Brian Tierney, Chair, President and CEO, explained the current plan includes investments to run existing coal plants until their terminal dates (2035/2040). The IRP represents incremental upside, potentially including 1-4 new combined cycle gas plants of ~1,000 MW each. Regarding FERC, he distinguished between different types of colocation, suggesting projects that add net new capacity will have a smoother path. He anticipates a FERC decision in the coming months, not spilling into next year.

William Appicelli inquired about the impact of FPL's 10-year site plan on its capital expenditure program, whether a settlement is the preferred outcome for the current rate case, and if the 11.6% ROE achieved in the quarter is sustainable for the year.

Answer

Armando Pimentel, President and CEO of Florida Power & Light, clarified that the roughly $50 billion CapEx plan for the next four years is consistent with expectations and driven by significant customer growth and system investments. He noted that while a rate case settlement is always possible, the current focus is on preparing the best case for the August hearing. Pimentel also confirmed that the 11.6% ROE is the current expectation for the full year, assuming normal weather.

William Appicelli asked for details on the drivers behind the forecast for minimal cash tax payments through 2028. He also requested an outline of the factors that will drive earnings acceleration back into the 5-7% long-term growth range after 2025.

Answer

Executive VP and CFO John Moreira explained that the minimal cash tax position is due to the utilization of R&D tax credits and the South Fork project's Investment Tax Credits (ITCs). He identified key growth drivers as the recovery of deferred storm costs, constructive rate recovery on new investments like the ESMP, O&M discipline, and using Aquarion sale proceeds to reduce holding company debt.

William Appicelli requested more detail on the specific conditions Eversource needs in the final Connecticut AMI decision to move forward and asked whether the program could be scaled or is an all-or-nothing investment. He also asked about the drivers of higher interest expense.

Answer

Chairman, President and CEO Joseph Nolan emphasized the need for "clear regulatory certainty" on cost recovery and sound legal standards before committing capital to the AMI program, which he described as an "all or nothing" investment. EVP, CFO and Treasurer John Moreira attributed the higher interest expense to a combination of higher rates and increased debt volume due to delays in offshore wind sale proceeds.

William Appicelli asked about the magnitude and earnings impact of tax credit monetization, the drivers of the residential sales outlook, and AEP's next steps regarding the FERC co-location issue.

Answer

EVP and CFO Chuck Zebula clarified that tax credit monetization is for funding via transferability, not earnings, estimated at ~$300 million annually from 2025-2027. He attributed flat residential sales to return-to-work trends. President and CEO William Fehrman reiterated that AEP's principle on co-location is that any entity using the transmission system must pay for it.

William Appicelli asked about the magnitude of tax credit monetization, the drivers of the residential sales forecast, and AEP's position on the FERC co-location issue.

Answer

CFO Charles Zebula stated tax credit transferability provides about $300M/year in funding and is earnings-neutral. He attributed flat residential sales to post-pandemic trends. CEO William Fehrman affirmed AEP's stance that entities using the transmission system must pay for it to prevent cost-shifting.

William Appicelli from UBS Securities questioned if the 16.9% rate base growth could increase further, the potential for lumpy earnings growth, and the construction model for recent RFP wins. He also asked for an updated outlook on credit metrics.

Answer

President & CEO Lisa Grow and SVP & CFO Brian Buckham confirmed that the rate base forecast could see further additions from future loads and resources. They acknowledged that earnings growth would likely be lumpy, not linear, due to project timing and regulatory lag, pointing to 2027 as a significant year for CapEx conversion. Buckham clarified that the company will construct the new wind and battery projects itself, earning AFUDC. He stated that credit metrics may remain near downgrade thresholds longer than planned, depending on rate case outcomes aimed at reducing regulatory lag.

William Appicelli asked if all CapEx for the new customer is included in the update, what the resulting impact on customer bills is, and how a potential 'nuclear clean tariff' would function.

Answer

Executive Andrew Marsh confirmed all CapEx for the customer is in the plan and said the nuclear clean tariff concept applies to existing assets and uprates. Executive Kimberly Fontan noted the customer bill trajectory has improved to a ~3.5% CAGR, down from ~4% at Analyst Day, as higher sales spread fixed costs more broadly.

William Appicelli from UBS requested quantification of the tax timing impacts, confirmation of the Q4 earnings ramp for the DTE Vantage segment, and a sensitivity analysis for how incremental large customer load could affect earnings. He also asked about the adequacy of the current tariff structure for such load.

Answer

EVP and CFO David Ruud quantified the tax timing reversal at about $40 million and confirmed the Vantage Q4 step-up is on track, driven by the Ford project coming into service. Chairman and CEO Gerardo Norcia explained that incremental margin from new large load would be used to support affordability initiatives and accelerate capital plans rather than directly flow to earnings. He added that while the existing tariff works for current capacity, a new tailored tariff would be needed for longer-dated capacity additions.

William Appicelli from UBS inquired about PSEG's view on the supply and demand balance in PJM and its confidence in the grid operator's processes. He also asked if PSEG would ever consider pursuing regulated generation for its rate base, a path some peers are contemplating.

Answer

Ralph LaRossa, Chairman, President and CEO, stated he was pleased with PJM's responsiveness to PSEG's input on load growth forecasts. Regarding regulated generation, he clarified that PSEG is not in the business of building new power plants and has sufficient capital opportunities in transmission and distribution ("pipe in the ground and wires in the air") to meet its growth targets. He said while they could restart that skill set if policy required it, it is not their current focus.