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Woody Lay

Senior Equity Research Analyst at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW)

Woody Lay is a Senior Equity Research Analyst at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW), specializing in coverage of small and mid-cap (SMID-cap) U.S. banks. He currently covers 35 bank stocks including companies such as Luther Burbank, California BanCorp, CrossFirst Bankshares, South Plains Financial, and BancFirst, maintaining a strong 77% success rate on his recommendations and generating returns up to 80% on top-rated calls such as TCBX. Lay began his equity research career after earning a BA in Economics and History from the University of North Carolina and an MS in Commerce from the University of Virginia, with prior experience at Banks Street Partners and Bank of North Carolina before joining KBW in 2017. He is a CFA charterholder, underscoring his robust analytical credentials in the financial sector.

Woody Lay's questions to BOK FINANCIAL (BOKF) leadership

Woody Lay's questions to BOK FINANCIAL (BOKF) leadership • Q3 2025

Question

Woody Lay asked about the expected mix shift of BOK Financial's trading income between fees and net interest income (NII) in the context of a steepening yield curve. He also inquired about the slight increase in criticized assets, requesting the dollar amount and any contributing factors. Finally, he questioned the sustainability of the remarkably low net charge-off rate and whether a more normalized credit environment is anticipated in the year ahead.

Answer

CFO Marty Grunst stated that a steeper yield curve would likely result in more trading revenue being categorized as NII and less as fees, emphasizing that the total revenue from the business is the key metric. President and CEO Stacy Kymes reported that criticized assets increased by approximately $50 million, noting that such small movements can be influenced by one or two loans given the overall low levels. Kymes stressed that current credit numbers are 'abnormally strong' and a reversion to the mean (historically 20-25 basis points average charge-offs) is expected eventually, but no meaningful deterioration is foreseen in the near term, with no specific patterns or concentrations raising concerns.

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Woody Lay's questions to BOK FINANCIAL (BOKF) leadership • Q3 2025

Question

Woody Lay highlighted BOK Financial's remarkable average net charge-off rate of 6 basis points over the past three years and asked Stacy Kymes if a more normalized environment is expected in the year ahead, or if it remains too unpredictable.

Answer

Stacy Kymes, President and CEO, acknowledged the abnormally strong credit numbers, noting that BOK Financial's long-term average charge-off rate over 20 years (including the Great Financial Crisis) is around 26 basis points, with a through-the-cycle expectation of 20-25 basis points. He stated that while a reversion to the mean is expected eventually, it's hard to foresee it happening quickly based on current conditions, as no specific deterioration patterns are evident.

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Woody Lay's questions to BOK FINANCIAL (BOKF) leadership • Q2 2025

Question

Woody Lay asked about the opportunity and expected ramp-up of the new mortgage finance business and the outlook for deposit cost betas if the Fed cuts rates.

Answer

EVP & CFO Martin Grunst projected the mortgage finance business could reach $500 million in commitments by year-end with about 50% utilization. CEO Stacy Kymes added that 2025 is focused on operational stability before accelerating growth in 2026. Regarding deposit costs, Grunst stated that the cumulative liability beta of 76% should hold or potentially improve with further rate cuts.

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Woody Lay's questions to BOK FINANCIAL (BOKF) leadership • Q1 2025

Question

Woody Lay asked if the new mortgage finance business was newly added to the loan growth guidance and inquired about its long-term size. He also questioned the company's stance on share buybacks given its strong capital position and recent stock pullback.

Answer

CFO Martin Grunst confirmed the mortgage finance vertical was not in the prior quarter's guidance and was added this quarter. CEO Stacy Kymes described the business as a long-term diversifier that he expects to become a 'meaningful number' by the end of 2026. Regarding capital, Martin Grunst stated that given their strong capital position, they 'expect to be active share repurchasers in the second quarter.'

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Woody Lay's questions to BOK FINANCIAL (BOKF) leadership • Q4 2024

Question

Woody Lay from KBW asked about the drivers behind the strong Q4 deposit growth and its impact on 2025 strategy. He also questioned if a more favorable regulatory environment would alter the bank's approach to deploying excess capital.

Answer

CFO Martin Grunst attributed the deposit growth to broad-based success across all business lines and stated the strategy remains unchanged. Regarding capital, Grunst noted that while a favorable regulatory backdrop is helpful, it doesn't fundamentally change their patient approach. CEO Stacy Kymes added that the bank's strong risk management gives them the latitude to act in shareholders' best interests regardless of the regulatory environment.

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Woody Lay's questions to BOK FINANCIAL (BOKF) leadership • Q3 2024

Question

Woody Lay of KBW inquired about the repricing dynamics of the time deposit portfolio in the fourth quarter. He also asked for color on the competitive landscape for Commercial Real Estate (CRE) lending, given BOKF's available capacity.

Answer

CFO Marty Grunst explained that the time deposit book is a granular consumer portfolio with a long tail, so the portion repricing in any single quarter is not large enough to have a major impact. On CRE, CEO Stacy Kymes noted that while there is less competition, deal flow is also slower. However, he affirmed BOKF has a competitive advantage and expressed confidence they will 'refill that bucket' over the next 12-18 months as they have in the past.

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Woody Lay's questions to SIMMONS FIRST NATIONAL (SFNC) leadership

Woody Lay's questions to SIMMONS FIRST NATIONAL (SFNC) leadership • Q3 2025

Question

Woody Lay from KBW asked about the trend in Simmons First National Corporation's deposit betas following the September rate cut and expectations for future incremental cuts. He also sought insights into the forward expense growth rate, balancing ongoing efficiency gains with investments in talent acquisition, and the company's overall credit outlook amidst recent industry events.

Answer

CFO Daniel Hobbs reported a cumulative deposit beta of 65% through the rate cycle, expecting it to moderate due to the reduction of 100% beta brokered deposits and competitive pressures. President Jay Brogdon added that consumer accounts are growing but with lower average balances, while commercial accounts and fee income are seeing good growth from investments. Regarding expenses, Brogdon indicated the Q3 non-interest expense run rate might be slightly above Q4 but a reasonable launch point for the next year. He emphasized continued opportunities for efficiency ('middle innings') alongside strategic investments in talent and tools for organic growth. On credit, Brogdon described Q3 as a 'benign quarter' for NPLs, past dues, and charge-offs, expressing optimism for resolving two specific loans from Q1 in the fourth quarter. He also noted proactive efforts to move lower-quality loans, which impacted loan growth.

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Woody Lay's questions to SIMMONS FIRST NATIONAL (SFNC) leadership • Q2 2025

Question

Woody Lay of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) inquired about the 2025 outlook, the potential for further Net Interest Margin (NIM) expansion after surpassing 3%, and the future trend of loan payoffs.

Answer

President Jay Brogdon stated that performance trends are exceeding expectations, driven by asset repricing, though deposit cost improvements are slowing. CFO Daniel Hobbs provided detail on the continued positive repricing of the fixed-rate loan portfolio and a shift to variable-rate production, which supports the NIM. Brogdon also noted that loan payoffs are expected to remain consistent or slightly lower.

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Woody Lay's questions to Bank7 (BSVN) leadership

Woody Lay's questions to Bank7 (BSVN) leadership • Q3 2025

Question

Woody Lay asked about the net interest margin (NIM) trajectory, noting the strong Q3 performance but lower quarter-end margin due to a September rate cut, and how future rate cuts might impact it. He also questioned the drivers behind the recent increase in loan fee income and its potential stickiness. Finally, Lay sought clarification on the decision to increase credit reserves despite strong credit trends and whether further reserve builds are anticipated.

Answer

Kelly Harris, CFO, reported a core NIM of 4.55% for Q3, anticipating slight compression to 4.50% with the first Q4 rate cut and potentially 4.47% with additional cuts, assuming liability cost management. Jason Estes, Chief Credit Officer, attributed higher loan fee income to successful sales and a robust deal market, expecting it to normalize after recent outperformance. Tom Travis, President and CEO, explained the reserve increase was a prudent measure due to portfolio growth and increased macro volatility, indicating they are 'pretty set' for now unless conditions or growth change.

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Woody Lay's questions to Bank7 (BSVN) leadership • Q2 2025

Question

Woody Lay of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) questioned Bank7's loan growth outlook for the second half of 2025, the impact of funding this growth on the Net Interest Margin (NIM), and the company's current M&A strategy.

Answer

President & Chief Credit Officer Jason Estes confirmed a solid loan pipeline but noted unpredictability from large paydowns. He stated that while deposit costs may rise to fund growth, he expects the NIM to remain within its historical range. CEO Thomas Travis added that the bank remains disciplined on M&A, having explored several deals that did not close, and continues to evaluate opportunities.

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Woody Lay's questions to FIRSTSUN CAPITAL BANCORP (FSUN) leadership

Woody Lay's questions to FIRSTSUN CAPITAL BANCORP (FSUN) leadership • Q2 2025

Question

Asked about the specifics of the second quarter charge-offs, the outlook for reserve levels given potential future credit events, and the rationale for maintaining deposit growth guidance despite strong first-half performance.

Answer

The company clarified that Q2 charge-offs were concentrated in two C&I credits that were partially written down, not fully. They believe current reserve levels are adequate for future events, as the credit with a potential triggering event already has specific reserves. The deposit guidance is somewhat conservative, acknowledging some large, temporary client deposits in H1, but they still anticipate growth in the second half.

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Woody Lay's questions to FIRSTSUN CAPITAL BANCORP (FSUN) leadership • Q2 2025

Question

Woody Lay of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods inquired about the specifics of the second-quarter charge-offs, the outlook for reserve levels, and the rationale behind maintaining mid-single-digit deposit growth guidance despite strong first-half performance.

Answer

CFO Robert Cafera clarified that Q2 charge-offs were driven by two C&I credits, which were written down to their net realizable value, not fully charged off. He stated that the allowance for credit losses is expected to normalize around the 1.20s range, as previous builds were for specific reserves. Regarding deposit guidance, Mr. Cafera acknowledged potential conservatism but noted that some temporary client liquidity events could create headwinds and that new growth comes at a higher cost. CEO Neal Arnold added that the CFO's confidence in forecasts increases as the year progresses.

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Woody Lay's questions to FIRSTSUN CAPITAL BANCORP (FSUN) leadership • Q2 2025

Question

Woody Lay of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) inquired about the specifics of the quarter's credit charge-offs, the outlook for reserve levels, and the rationale for maintaining conservative deposit growth guidance despite strong first-half performance.

Answer

CFO Robert Cafera explained that the charge-offs were driven by two C&I credits, which were only partially charged down to their expected recovery value. He stated that the current allowance for credit losses (ACL) is at a normalized level, as specific reserves had already been built for these credits. Regarding deposit guidance, Cafera acknowledged potential conservatism but pointed to some large, temporary client liquidity events that could moderate future growth. CEO Neal Arnold added that forecast confidence increases as the year progresses.

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Woody Lay's questions to First Western Financial (MYFW) leadership

Woody Lay's questions to First Western Financial (MYFW) leadership • Q2 2025

Question

Woody Lay from Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) asked for a follow-up on the net interest margin (NIM) outlook, its sensitivity to potential rate cuts, the company's approach to balancing investments with profitability, and strategies for growing trust fees.

Answer

CFO David Weber confirmed that a 25 basis point rate cut would impact NII by slightly less than the previously guided $1 million. CEO Scott Wylie elaborated that the company focuses on maximizing value from its current expense base, highlighting recent strategic hires. He also detailed plans to revitalize the PTIM (Planning, Trust, and Investment Management) business through new leadership and a new B2B initiative, with results expected in future quarters.

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Woody Lay's questions to First Western Financial (MYFW) leadership • Q2 2025

Question

Woody Lay asked for a follow-up on the net interest margin (NIM) outlook, its sensitivity to potential rate cuts, the balance between investment and profitability, and the strategy for growing trust fees.

Answer

CFO David Weber confirmed that a 25 basis point rate cut would impact NII by slightly less than the previously guided $1 million. CEO Scott Wylie discussed strategy, emphasizing leveraging the current expense base with new talent to drive revenue. He also detailed plans to grow PTIM (Planning, Trust, and Investment Management) fees through new leadership and a new B2B initiative, noting results are expected in future quarters.

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Woody Lay's questions to First Western Financial (MYFW) leadership • Q2 2025

Question

Woody Lay from Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) asked about the sensitivity of the Net Interest Margin (NIM) outlook to potential rate cuts, the strategy for balancing investments against profitability, and plans to increase trust and investment management (PTIM) fees.

Answer

CFO & Treasurer David Weber confirmed that the previously guided NII sensitivity to a 25 basis point rate cut remains largely accurate. Chairman & CEO Scott Wylie elaborated on the growth strategy, stating that recent hires are expected to drive revenue and operating leverage on the existing expense base. He also detailed plans to revitalize PTIM fees by installing new leadership with a growth focus, launching a new B2B initiative, and emphasizing financial planning services.

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Woody Lay's questions to First Western Financial (MYFW) leadership • Q2 2025

Question

Woody Lay from Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) asked for details on the net interest margin's sensitivity to potential rate cuts, the strategy for balancing investments with profitability, and plans to grow trust and investment management (PTIM) fees.

Answer

CFO David Weber stated that a 25 basis point rate cut would have a roughly $1 million impact on NII, consistent with prior guidance. CEO Scott Wylie addressed the investment strategy, highlighting that recent hires are driving revenue growth on a stable expense base, creating operating leverage. Wylie also detailed plans to revitalize PTIM fees by installing new leadership with a growth focus, emphasizing financial planning, and launching a new B2B distribution channel.

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Woody Lay's questions to First Western Financial (MYFW) leadership • Q4 2024

Question

Woody Lay asked for color on what drove the record-setting risk management and insurance fees in the quarter. He also questioned if the slow mortgage market would impact plans for hiring mortgage loan officers (MLOs) in 2025 and requested guidance on the expense run rate for the first quarter of 2025.

Answer

Executive Scott Wylie explained the record insurance fees were the result of a strategic effort to strengthen the PTIM (planning, trust, and investment management) business, which had a very strong fourth quarter. Regarding mortgages, he noted that despite a tough market, the company successfully hired MLOs in 2024 and is seeing 'signs of life' in January. For expenses, he guided to a quarterly run rate of approximately $20 million for 2025, acknowledging inflationary pressures but continued focus on efficiency.

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Woody Lay's questions to SEACOAST BANKING CORP OF FLORIDA (SBCF) leadership

Woody Lay's questions to SEACOAST BANKING CORP OF FLORIDA (SBCF) leadership • Q2 2025

Question

Woody Lay asked for details on the expected deposit beta for future interest rate cuts, questioned if there were offsets to the strong deposit performance that kept the core NIM guidance at 3.35%, and inquired about the balance between reinvesting in the franchise and improving profitability.

Answer

EVP, Treasurer & Director - IR Michael Young stated that after an aggressive initial phase of lowering deposit costs, future deposit betas would likely normalize to the low-30s range. He clarified that the core NIM guidance is maintained because the timing of Fed cuts has shifted, and the bank is leaning more towards balance sheet growth versus pure margin optimization in the second half of the year. Chairman, President & CEO Charles Shaffer addressed the investment question by stating his primary focus is delivering on the profitability targets outlined in the Villages acquisition deck, though the company will remain open to unique strategic opportunities.

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Woody Lay's questions to Hilltop Holdings (HTH) leadership

Woody Lay's questions to Hilltop Holdings (HTH) leadership • Q2 2025

Question

Woody Lay of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) inquired about the elevated efficiency ratio in the broker-dealer segment, the drivers for the upward revision in non-variable expense guidance, and the factors that enabled the strong 72% interest-bearing deposit beta.

Answer

CFO William Furr explained the broker-dealer efficiency was impacted by a revenue mix shift toward public finance and away from structured finance. CEO Jeremy Ford added that $1 million in severance costs also pressured the margin. Regarding expenses, Furr cited inflation in personnel costs and software contract escalators. On the deposit beta, Furr credited improved analytics, customer sensitivity analysis, and a more rational competitive market.

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Woody Lay's questions to FIVE STAR BANCORP (FSBC) leadership

Woody Lay's questions to FIVE STAR BANCORP (FSBC) leadership • Q2 2025

Question

Woody Lay from Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) asked for guidance on the expense run rate for Q3 2025 with the new Walnut Creek office, questioned the sustainability of the strong non-interest-bearing deposit growth, and sought details on which commercial real estate (CRE) sub-verticals are driving growth.

Answer

EVP and CFO Heather Luck projected a quarterly expense increase of $500,000 to $750,000 for Q3 to account for the Walnut Creek office. President and CEO James Beckwith affirmed that the non-interest-bearing deposit growth is sustainable and driven by fundamental new account acquisition. Regarding CRE, Beckwith identified mobile home/RV parks, storage, and student housing as key growth areas. He also noted selective financing of office buildings where new equity has significantly reset the asset basis, viewing these as safe, well-leveraged loans amid a San Francisco market turnaround.

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Woody Lay's questions to Origin Bancorp (OBK) leadership

Woody Lay's questions to Origin Bancorp (OBK) leadership • Q2 2025

Question

Woody Lay from Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) questioned the timing and rationale for the Q2 securities portfolio restructure and asked about the potential for future restructures. He also inquired if there was an opportunity to increase the ownership stake in Argent Financial and sought an update on the timing of further expense savings.

Answer

CFO Wally Wallace explained that the securities restructure was planned for Q1 but delayed due to market volatility; he clarified that no further large-scale loss trades are anticipated. President and CEO of Origin Bank, Lance Hall, stated that the company plans to maintain its Argent ownership stake in the 20-25% range. Regarding expenses, Chairman, President & CEO Drake Mills highlighted that 'Optimize Origin' focuses on both revenue enhancement and efficiency, while CFO Wally Wallace added that the expense run rate is expected to remain flat in the second half of the year compared to Q2.

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Woody Lay's questions to Third Coast Bancshares (TCBX) leadership

Woody Lay's questions to Third Coast Bancshares (TCBX) leadership • Q2 2025

Question

Woody Lay of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) sought clarification on the forward NIM guidance, the strategic evaluation of securitizations versus loan growth, and whether the Q2 expense level is a good run rate.

Answer

CFO R. John McWhorter confirmed the 3.90%-3.95% NIM guidance includes recurring capitalized fees. He and CEO Bart Caraway detailed that securitizations are evaluated for capital management, earnings, concentration risk, and customer accommodation. McWhorter also affirmed that the Q2 expense run rate of approximately $28 million is a reasonable expectation for the rest of the year.

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Woody Lay's questions to Third Coast Bancshares (TCBX) leadership • Q3 2024

Question

Woody Lay inquired about the go-forward deposit strategy, particularly the reason for the increase in time deposits during the quarter, and also sought to confirm if the loan pipeline's composition is consistent with historical levels.

Answer

Executive John McWhorter explained that the uptick in time deposits, specifically brokered CDs, was a short-term measure to manage a significant, unexpected surge in loan growth in September and keep the loan-to-deposit ratio from exceeding 100%. Executive Bart Caraway confirmed that the current loan pipeline mix is a continuation of trends seen in the last three quarters.

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Woody Lay's questions to BankUnited (BKU) leadership

Woody Lay's questions to BankUnited (BKU) leadership • Q2 2025

Question

Woody Lay from Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) asked about the drivers behind the better-than-expected deposit growth, the specific triggering events for office loan migration to non-accrual, and the strategic process for expanding into new markets like New Jersey and Charlotte.

Answer

CFO Leslie Lunak and COO Thomas Cornish attributed the strong deposit growth to the successful onboarding of new client relationships across all business lines and investments in new producers. Lunak clarified that office loan migration is primarily triggered by cash flow issues, such as occupancy problems. CEO Rajinder Singh described the new market expansion as both opportunistic and methodical, focusing on growth, business friendliness, and talent.

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Woody Lay's questions to TEXAS CAPITAL BANCSHARES INC/TX (TCBI) leadership

Woody Lay's questions to TEXAS CAPITAL BANCSHARES INC/TX (TCBI) leadership • Q2 2025

Question

Woody Lay asked for details on the restructuring charges, what factors would determine the low versus high end of the expense growth guidance, and how the regulatory environment impacts the bank's capital targets.

Answer

MD & CFO Matt Scurlock explained that restructuring charges reflect ongoing structural efficiencies, reallocating expenses to support fee income growth, and stated he anticipates full-year expense growth around 6%. Chairman, President & CEO Rob Holmes asserted that the regulatory tone does not affect their capital strategy, viewing their strong capital levels as a strategic advantage for client acquisition.

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Woody Lay's questions to SOUTH PLAINS FINANCIAL (SPFI) leadership

Woody Lay's questions to SOUTH PLAINS FINANCIAL (SPFI) leadership • Q2 2025

Question

Woody Lay from Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) questioned the drivers of the strong loan yield expansion, the strategies behind the growth in non-interest-bearing deposits, and the scope and expense impact of the company's lender hiring initiative.

Answer

President Cory Newsom stated new loans are being originated in the low-7% to high-6% range, while Chairman & CEO Curtis Griffith noted that many paid-off loans were lower-priced. Newsom attributed the growth in non-interest-bearing deposits to the continued maturation of their treasury management solutions. He also confirmed the hiring strategy will increase short-term expenses but is viewed as a crucial investment for growth, with new hires expected to break even quickly.

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Woody Lay's questions to Bank of Marin Bancorp (BMRC) leadership

Woody Lay's questions to Bank of Marin Bancorp (BMRC) leadership • Q1 2025

Question

Asked about the drivers and stickiness of deposit growth, the potential for further deposit cost reductions, and the outlook for loan production amidst macro uncertainty.

Answer

Deposit growth was from a mix of new accounts and existing client inflows, though some is seasonal/episodic. There is some limited room to cut deposit costs even without Fed action. Loan production is strong and sustainable, driven by new hires, and the pipeline is healthy; paydowns are not from core commercial activity.

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Woody Lay's questions to Bank of Marin Bancorp (BMRC) leadership • Q1 2025

Question

Woody Lay from KBW inquired about the nature of the quarter's strong deposit growth, asking if it was seasonal or sticky and what drove it. He also asked if there was room to further lower deposit costs and questioned the trend in loan production versus payoffs.

Answer

CEO Tim Myers stated that the deposit growth was a combination of new account openings and inflows from existing commercial, small business, and consumer clients, but acknowledged that forecasting is difficult due to episodic flows from large DDA customers. CFO Dave Bonaccorso confirmed there is some flexibility on deposit costs, noting a small rate cut was implemented in April independent of Fed actions. Tim Myers added that strong loan production was driven by new banker hires rather than broad market demand, and payoffs were largely from non-core areas like consumer loans.

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Woody Lay's questions to Bank of Marin Bancorp (BMRC) leadership • Q1 2025

Question

Woody Lay from KBW inquired about the drivers and sustainability of the quarter's strong deposit growth, the potential for further reductions in deposit costs, and current loan production trends amid macroeconomic uncertainty.

Answer

CEO Tim Myers attributed deposit growth to new account openings and inflows from existing clients but cautioned that forecasting is difficult due to fluctuations from large DDA customers. CFO Dave Bonaccorso confirmed there is room to lower deposit costs, citing a rate cut on $260 million in balances in April independent of Fed actions. Myers added that strong loan production was driven by new hires and a healthy pipeline, not an increase in market-wide demand, and he is not seeing deal delays.

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Woody Lay's questions to GUARANTY BANCSHARES INC /TX/ (GNTY) leadership

Woody Lay's questions to GUARANTY BANCSHARES INC /TX/ (GNTY) leadership • Q2 2024

Question

Woody Lay questioned what would catalyze a loan growth pickup in 2025, specifically asking if one rate cut would be sufficient. He also inquired about the bank's appetite for construction and development loans and whether the Q2 expense level is a good run rate.

Answer

Executive Tyson Abston stated that two or three rate cuts, along with reduced uncertainty after the election, would likely be needed to stimulate loan growth, rather than just a single cut. He noted the bank's appetite for construction loans is currently more constrained with stricter underwriting. Executive Shalene Jacobson confirmed that the second quarter's expense level is a good run rate for the future.

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