Yuri Pereira

Yuri Pereira asked about the impact of recent floods in Southeast Asia on wood prices in China. He also inquired about potential shifts towards dissolving pulp in the coming year, seeking a recap of market conditions driving this trend and whether it's solely due to low hardwood prices.

Answer

Leonardo Grimaldi, Executive Vice President, confirmed that floods in Southeast Asia have influenced wood chip prices in the short term. He explained that dissolving pulp (DWP) prices are trending significantly higher than the historic average delta with hardwood, incentivizing flex capacity to shift from unsustainable hardwood production to dissolving pulp, suggesting more such shifts are possible.

Yuri Pereira sought clarification on whether the '15% of industry below water' metric is based on cash cost or cash flow. He also asked for the current price spread between dissolving pulp and hardwood pulp compared to historical levels.

Answer

EVP of Pulp Commercial & Logistics, Leonardo Grimaldi, clarified that the metric is based on cash costs delivered to China, as cash flow data is not available. He added that the price spread between dissolving and paper-grade pulp currently exceeds the historical average of $200 per ton, which influences production decisions for flexible mills.

Yuri Pereira from Santander asked for details on a potential partner for CSN's infrastructure assets, the potential impact on leverage, and the company's plans for its stake in Usiminas following the CADE (antitrust) ruling.

Answer

An executive, likely Marco Hebello, explained that the infrastructure assets are split into two packages (Southeast and Northeast) and that a sale of a 20-40% stake in the Southeast assets alone could inject BRL 8 billion of liquidity. Chairman Benjamin Steinbruck added that the company is in the final stages of selecting advisors for the deal. Regarding Usiminas, they stated that the next steps for the stake sale have not yet been defined.

Yuri Pereira inquired about Gerdau's share buyback plans, asking about the rationale for the strong execution, the preference between dividends and buybacks at current prices, and the potential for buybacks at the holding company, Metalurgica Gerdau.

Answer

CEO Gustavo Werneck stated that given the company's view that its shares are significantly discounted, buybacks represent a superior use of capital to return value to shareholders. He clarified that Metalurgica Gerdau has already completed its buyback program and lacks the cash to initiate a new one without an extraordinary dividend from Gerdau S.A., which is not currently planned.

Yuri Pereira asked about the potential for further cost improvements in Brazil and the possibility of including more long steel products in the country's tariff quota system to defend against imports.

Answer

An executive noted that while there is always room to improve controllable costs, the Brazil operation faces cost pressure from a higher U.S. dollar on imported raw materials. CEO Gustavo Werneck argued strongly that Brazil's current tariff quota system is ineffective and advocated for more robust trade defense, suggesting a single, fully applied tariff of 25-30% on a broader list of products is needed to counter subsidized imports and create a level playing field.

Yuri Pereira asked for the sensitivity of Vale's copper costs to changes in gold prices. He also inquired if more municipalities had recently sought to join the Mariana agreement.

Answer

Executive Shaun Usmar provided a specific sensitivity, stating that a $100 per ounce move in the gold price impacts the all-in cost for copper by approximately $135 per ton. Executive Gustavo Duarte Pimenta clarified that the deadline for municipalities to join the Mariana agreement has passed, and no new entrants are being accepted.

Yuri Pereira asked if the 2025 CapEx revision was driven by factors other than new foreign exchange assumptions. He also questioned if the company saw room to increase financial debt to help achieve its expanded net debt target, given current iron ore prices.

Answer

Executive Marcelo Bacci clarified that the CapEx revision was not significantly impacted by FX assumptions. Regarding debt, he stated that while Vale will monitor market opportunities, the primary goal is to maintain the expanded net debt around the $15 billion target, rather than actively increasing financial debt to meet it.

Yuri Pereira of Banco Santander, S.A. asked for an estimate of the annual tons of iron ore removed from the market due to natural mine depletion across the industry.

Answer

Executive Marcello Spinelli addressed the question by highlighting a global decrease in ore quality, particularly rising alumina in competitors' products. He estimated that globally, 300 to 400 million tons of production could be affected by depletion by 2030, which positions Vale favorably due to its ability to supply higher quality ore.

Yuri Pereira of Santander Bank followed up on the antidumping issue, asking which product is next in line for a government decision after the recent ruling on cold-drawn steel. He also requested clarification on recent news regarding judicial decisions and a potential sale of CSN's stake in Usiminas.

Answer

Luis Martinez, Executive, identified prepainted steel as the next key product in the antidumping process, with a decision expected within two months, while expressing disappointment with the 'very bad news' on the cold-drawing decision. An Unknown Executive addressed the Usiminas stake, confirming a recent local court decision but stating the company will continue to appeal. He reiterated that while the shares are available for sale, the timing must be right and the company will continue to pursue its legal options.

Yuri Pereira followed up on the anti-dumping issue, asking which product is next for a government decision after the recent ruling on cold-drawn steel. He also sought clarification on recent news regarding judicial decisions and a potential sale of CSN's stake in Usiminas.

Answer

Luis Martinez, an executive, expressed disappointment with the cold-drawing decision and stated that the next major anti-dumping case being monitored is for prepainted products, with a decision expected in one or two months. An executive clarified the Usiminas situation, describing it as a long-standing legal matter spanning over a decade where the company will continue to pursue its resources, indicating no imminent sale.