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AbCellera Biologics Inc. (ABCL)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Revenue of $4.24M and EPS of $(0.15) missed S&P Global consensus ($7.31M revenue; $(0.14) EPS), driven by a deliberate shift away from partner research fees as internal programs advance; liquidity remains robust at ~$810M including ~$633M cash and securities and ~$178M government funding *.
  • Management unveiled ABCL635 (NK3R) for menopausal vasomotor symptoms with a monthly SC antibody dosing thesis and clear near-term readouts; Phase 1 targeted to start in Q3 2025 with biomarker and early efficacy data expected mid‑2026 .
  • ABCL575 (OX40L) preclinical data showed high potency and predicted >60‑day half-life, supporting less frequent dosing; Health Canada authorized a Phase 1 to begin in Q3 2025 .
  • Strategic focus is on pipeline build and completing CMC/GMP investments (facility slated to come online by year-end 2025), with spend and liquidity positioned to fund “well beyond the next 3 years” .

Note: S&P Global consensus used for estimate comparisons.*

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Revealed first-in-class antibody program ABCL635 (NK3R) targeting a validated pathway with potential class-level tailwinds as small-molecule NK3R antagonists establish the market; management emphasizes improved safety and monthly dosing convenience .
    • ABCL575 preclinical package supports best-in-class profile: potent OX40L inhibition, favorable PK with projected >60‑day half-life, enabling less frequent dosing; Phase 1 authorized in Canada for Q3 2025 start .
    • Balance sheet resilience: $633M cash, equivalents, and marketable securities and ~$178M committed non‑dilutive funding (total ~$810M) to execute strategy and complete manufacturing build .

  • What Went Wrong

    • Revenue miss vs consensus as partner research fees decline with strategy pivot; Q1 revenue $4.24M vs $7.31M consensus and vs $10.0M prior year *.
    • Continued operating loss as R&D investment rises (R&D $42.5M vs $39.3M YoY); net loss widened to $(45.6)M from $(40.6)M YoY, EPS $(0.15) vs $(0.14) YoY .
    • External program pauses: development of four Trianni-license NovaRock molecules currently paused, highlighting partner pipeline execution risk near term .

Financial Results

Headline results vs prior quarters (oldest → newest):

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Revenue ($M)$6.51 $5.10 $4.24
Net Loss ($M)$(51.11) $(34.20) $(45.62)
EPS ($)$(0.17) $(0.12) $(0.15)

Q1 2025 revenue composition (YoY comparison):

Revenue Mix ($M)Q1 2024Q1 2025
Research fees$9.77 $4.07
Licensing$0.18 $0.17
Total$9.95 $4.24

Operating costs (Q1 2025 vs Q1 2024):

OpEx ($M)Q1 2024Q1 2025
R&D$39.29 $42.50
Sales & Marketing$3.37 $2.84
G&A$17.35 $16.23
Depreciation & Amortization$4.84 $5.33
Total Operating Expenses$64.85 $66.90

Liquidity:

Liquidity ($M)Q4 2024Q1 2025
Cash & Equivalents$156.33 $159.27
Marketable Securities$469.29 $446.00
Total Cash+Securities$625.61 $605.27
Non‑dilutive Gov’t Funding (available)~$186 $/$178
Total Available Liquidity~$840 ~$810

Key performance indicators:

KPI (Cumulative)Mar 31, 2024Mar 31, 2025Change
Partner-initiated program starts with downstreams90 97 +8%
Molecules in the clinic13 16 +23%

Consensus vs actual (S&P Global; asterisk denotes S&P values):

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Revenue – Actual ($M)$6.51 $5.10 $4.24
Revenue – Consensus ($M)$8.01*$7.58*$7.31*
EPS – Actual ($)$(0.17) $(0.12) $(0.15)
EPS – Consensus ($)$(0.13)*$(0.151)*$(0.143)*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Implications: Q1 2025 saw a revenue and EPS miss vs consensus as fee-for-service declines, but cost discipline in S&M and G&A and a strong liquidity position underpin the clinical transition .

Guidance Changes

Operational guidance updates (previous vs current):

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
ABCL635 – CTA filingQ2 2025CTA in Q2 2025 “Completing the CTA process this quarter” (Q2) Maintained
ABCL635 – Phase 1 start2H 2025Start 2025 Start Q3 2025 Refined timing
ABCL635 – First readouts2026First readouts 2026 Safety/early efficacy mid‑2026 Refined timing
ABCL575 – CTA filingQ2 2025CTA in Q2 2025 On track Q2 2025 Maintained
ABCL575 – Phase 1 start2H 2025Start 2025 Start Q3 2025; Health Canada NOL received Maintained; regulatory milestone
CMC/GMP facility go‑liveYE 2025End of 2025 End of 2025 Maintained
Liquidity runwayMulti‑yearWell beyond next 3 years Well beyond next 3 years Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ3 2024 (Q‑2)Q4 2024 (Q‑1)Q1 2025 (Current)Trend
Transition to clinical-stageOn track for CTAs in Q2 2025; facility build advancing 2025 priorities: CTAs, facility, clinical starts CTAs completing; Q3 starts targeted Execution progressing
ABCL635 (NK3R, VMS)Target undisclosed; $2B+ market thesis Indication agnostic framework reiterated Target/indication revealed; monthly SC antibody; key risk=target engagement; mid‑2026 readouts Visibility increased; de‑risk plan
ABCL575 (OX40L, AD)Competitive view favors OX40L vs OX40; durability potential Reinforced class opportunity; modest differentiation via half-life Positive preclinical PK/potency; Health Canada NOL for Phase 1 Momentum building
T‑cell engager (TCE) platformSITC update planned; liquidity strong Expanded AbbVie collaboration (Jan 2025) Continued enthusiasm; trispecifics/co‑stimulation research Platform validation/BD
Supply chain/tariffs/macro—Canada exemptions mitigate tariff risk IP domicile acceptable; manufacturing in Canada supports U.S. trials Risks monitored; limited impact
Regulatory/legal——Federal Circuit affirms validity of microfluidic patent (May) IP position strengthened
R&D execution/costsExpect research fees to trend lower Flat OpEx run‑rate; CapEx to fall in 2025 Research fees lower; liquidity ~$810M; disciplined spend Investment mix shifting internal

Management Commentary

  • “We are excited to introduce ABCL635 as a potential first-in-class antibody for the non-hormonal treatment of vasomotor symptoms... We ended the quarter with over $800 million in available liquidity... and anticipate starting Phase 1 clinical trials for both ABCL635 and ABCL575 in the second half of 2025.” — Carl Hansen, CEO .
  • “ABCL635 is being developed as a next‑generation NK3R antagonist with both an improved safety profile and a more convenient dosing regimen... If ultimately successful, we believe it can be a highly differentiated product that is launched into a large and established market.” .
  • “Our plans include completing the CTA process this quarter, starting our Phase I study in Q3 of 2025, and reporting key readouts of safety and early efficacy in mid‑2026.” .
  • “Altogether, we finished the quarter with over $630 million of total cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities... we have approximately $810 million in total available liquidity to continue executing on our strategy.” — Andrew Booth, CFO .

Q&A Highlights

  • ABCL635 differentiation hinges on safety (antibody not associated with liver toxicity; NK3R-specific avoids NK1R-related fatigue) and preferred monthly dosing; early Phase 1 biomarkers and efficacy to inform go-forward by mid‑2026 .
  • Trial design: early cohorts include healthy volunteers (male and female); testosterone levels to assess NK3R target engagement as an early biomarker .
  • OX40L class read‑across: Sanofi’s amlitelimab data in asthma and other I&I indications reinforce class potential; AbCellera positions ABCL575 for extended dosing via half‑life engineering .
  • Partner pipeline note: four NovaRock molecules (Trianni license) currently paused, likely fundraising-related; management will monitor .
  • Tariffs/IP domicile: Canada remains suitable for IP; Phase 1/2 manufacturing in Canada expected not to impede U.S. trials .

Estimates Context

  • Q1 2025: Revenue $4.24M vs $7.31M S&P consensus (miss); EPS $(0.15) vs $(0.143) consensus (miss). Drivers: deliberate reduction in partner research fees as internal/co‑dev programs progress *.
  • Prior quarters: Q4 2024 revenue $5.10M vs $7.58M consensus (miss), but EPS $(0.12) vs $(0.151) consensus (beat) ; Q3 2024 revenue $6.51M vs $8.01M (miss) and EPS $(0.17) vs $(0.13) (miss) .
  • Near‑term revisions: Street may lower fee‑for‑service revenue trajectories and push weighting to 2H operational catalysts (CTAs, Phase 1 starts). Liquidity commentary and operating expense discipline may buffer EPS estimates despite R&D ramp *.

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Revenue/EPS misses reflect intentional pivot away from low‑margin research fees; near‑term P&L noise should be weighed against increasing pipeline visibility (ABCL635 reveal and Q3 starts) .
  • The ABCL635 thesis—validated NK3R biology, antibody safety/dosing edge, and clear biomarker plan—creates a potentially de‑risking mid‑2026 readout path; a meaningful positive signal could reset the narrative .
  • ABCL575 has credible best‑in‑class aspirations (potency, >60‑day half‑life) and now has regulatory clearance to start Phase 1 in Q3 2025; class momentum from external programs is supportive .
  • Balance sheet (~$810M available liquidity) and facility timeline (CMC/GMP online by YE 2025) provide multi‑year funding and vertical integration optionality .
  • Watch list of catalysts: (1) CTA completions (Q2 2025), (2) Phase 1 starts for ABCL635/575 (Q3 2025), (3) ABCL575 initial PK/safety data (2026) and ABCL635 biomarker/efficacy readouts (mid‑2026), (4) TCE platform BD updates .
  • Risks: continued declines in partner fee revenue before clinical readouts, partner program pauses (e.g., NovaRock), and execution on timelines; however, IP defense success and AbbVie TCE collaboration mitigate strategic risk .

Appendix: Additional Context

  • Cash flow: Q1 2025 operating cash outflow of ~$11.6M; CapEx slowing in 2025 as platform build completes .
  • Company reiterated that Phase 1 trials will be run in Canada under government funding frameworks; no material tariff impact expected given exemptions for biomanufacturing inputs .

All financial and operational figures cited directly from company filings/press materials or S&P Global estimates as noted.