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Abacus Global Management, Inc. (ABL)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 delivered exceptional growth: total revenue $44.1M (+~105% YoY from $21.5M; +~33% QoQ from $33.2M), GAAP net income $4.6M, adjusted net income $17.3M, and adjusted EBITDA $24.5M with a 55.6% margin .
  • Origination capital deployment hit a record $124.9M; policies held rose to 753; balance sheet policy assets reached $448.1M; cash was $43.8M and long-term debt $238.0M .
  • Asset management accelerated: longevity funds attracted $122.8M of capital inflows and ETFs saw ~$44M net inflows in Q1; management cited total net inflows of almost $160M .
  • 2025 guidance for adjusted net income was maintained at $70–$78M (51–68% YoY growth); management emphasized resilience of the business model serving both policyholder liquidity and uncorrelated investor demand .
  • Post-quarter, external short-seller reports and related legal investigation releases pressured the stock in June; management had previously discussed a repurchase authorization as capital allocation optionality .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • “More than doubled” revenue and adjusted earnings YoY; adjusted EBITDA up sharply with margin at 55.6% .
    • Strong origination engine: capital deployed $124.9M; policies held 753; balance sheet policy assets $448.1M .
    • Asset management momentum: “newly launched funds attracting $122.8M” in capital inflows in first month; ETFs net inflows ~$44M; total net inflows ~ $160M .
    • Quote: “We delivered exceptional results… well-positioned to achieve our growth targets for 2025 and beyond.” – CEO Jay Jackson .
    • Quote: “Our unique business model… can succeed in any market cycle.” – CEO Jay Jackson .

  • What Went Wrong

    • Operating expenses increased versus prior year due to Q4 2024 acquisitions, depreciation/amortization, and higher SG&A/marketing to support growth .
    • Segment detail transparency improving but still evolving; asset management revenue disclosed at $7.8M, with consolidated AUM to be detailed in a forthcoming supplement .
    • Post-quarter stock overhang emerged in June from short-seller reports and law firm investigations; despite buyback authorization, shares declined per external press releases .

Financial Results

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$28.1 $33.2 $44.1
GAAP Net Income ($USD Millions)$(5.1) $(18.3) $4.6
Adjusted Net Income ($USD Millions)$14.9 $13.4 $17.3
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$16.7 $16.6 $24.5
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)59.2% 50.0% 55.6%
Adjusted Diluted EPS ($)$0.20 N/A$0.18
Origination Capital Deployed ($USD Millions)$93.2 $96.6 $124.9
Policies Held (#)532 719 753
Cash and Equivalents ($USD Millions)$19.4 $131.9 $43.8
Policy Assets ($USD Millions)$274.4 $371.4 $448.1
Long-term Debt ($USD Millions)$166.5 $342.4 $238.0

Segment/Revenue Components (as disclosed)

Segment/Line ItemQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Active Management Revenue ($M)$26.97 N/AN/A
Origination Revenue ($M)$1.06 N/AN/A
Portfolio Servicing Revenue ($M)$0.12 N/AN/A
Asset Management Revenue ($M)N/AN/A$7.8

KPIs and Operating Metrics

KPIQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Adjusted ROIC (Annualized)21% 11% 16.7%
Adjusted ROE (Annualized)23% 13% 16.0%
Longevity Funds Inflows ($M)N/AN/A$122.8
ETF Net Inflows ($M)N/AN/A~$44
Total Net Inflows ($M)N/AN/A~ $160

Notes:

  • Q4 cash was disclosed as $131.9M in the press release , while the CFO referenced $128.8M on the call ; management indicated more detail would be provided in supplements .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent Guidance (Q1 2025)Change
Adjusted Net Income ($USD Millions)FY 2025$70–$78 (initiated Mar 27, 2025) $70–$78 (maintained) Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3 2024 and Q4 2024)Current Period (Q1 2025)Trend
Asset Management/AUM inflowsAnnounced acquisitions (Carlisle, FCF) adding ~$2.6B AUM; fee cuts and ETF launch $122.8M new inflows into longevity funds; ~$44M ETF net inflows; ~ $160M total net inflows Increasing
ABL Tech/mortality verificationRapid client wins; >1M lives targeted by Q1’25; strong RFP performance ~1M lives tracked; ~700k in trial; beginning to be separately reported Expanding
Carrier buyback programSuccessful 2024; lumpy quarter-to-quarter; expanding relationships Active in Q1; evolving structures; competitive investor demand Expanding, lumpy
Advertising/direct vs adviser channelTargeted campaigns around election; positive impact with 90–120 day lag Mix ~40% DTC / ~40% advisers / ~20% brokers; advertising impact aiding inquiries Stable/optimized
Capital deployment/run rateQ3 $93.2M; Q4 $96.6M; strong pipeline Q1 record $124.9M; recycling capital; ample liquidity Increasing
Rebranding/brand recognitionRebrand to Abacus Global Management; broadened verticals New ad campaign; broader recognition across verticals Increasing

Management Commentary

  • Strategic positioning: “Our unique business model… serving both policyholders seeking liquidity and investors pursuing uncorrelated alternative assets… well-positioned to achieve our growth targets for 2025 and beyond.” – CEO Jay Jackson .
  • Balance sheet strength: “Cash and equivalents of $43.8M and balance sheet policy assets of $448.1M… poised to take advantage of any opportunities…” – CEO Jay Jackson .
  • Segment momentum: “First full quarter of asset management fees from acquisitions… $7.8M in revenue in that business segment.” – CFO Bill McCauley .
  • Margin ambition: “Target EBITDA margins greater than 50%… expect more consistency as fee-related earnings grow.” – CEO Jay Jackson .

Q&A Highlights

  • Policyholder liquidity and inquiries: Management observed upticks in inquiries amid market uncertainty and advertising impact; investor demand for uncorrelated yield remains strong .
  • Share repurchase framework: Board approved an authorization sized to be accretive vs ROE opportunities; used selectively based on valuation vs asset ROE .
  • Capital deployment and recycling: Record Q1 deployment (~$125M); continued recycling via policy sales and inflows from private funds support balance sheet flexibility .
  • Carrier buyback program: Active in Q1; growing relationships with carriers/reinsurers; competitive processes with investor demand .
  • ABL Tech traction: ~1M lives under contract; ~700k in trial; pipeline growing; cross-sell into asset management .
  • Abacus Wealth Advisors timeline: Name updated; pursuing opportunities with potential meaningful contribution by late 2025/into 2026 .

Estimates Context

  • Wall Street consensus (S&P Global/Capital IQ) for Q1 2025 EPS and revenue was unavailable at the time of query; therefore, we cannot assess beat/miss vs estimates. Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Where estimates may need to adjust:

  • Given revenue acceleration (+~33% QoQ; +~105% YoY) and margin improvement (Adj. EBITDA margin 55.6% vs 50.0% in Q4), street models may need to reflect higher fee-related earnings contributions, stronger origination throughput, and sustained >50% EBITDA margin trajectory .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Q1 print showed broad-based strength: revenue $44.1M, adjusted net income $17.3M, adjusted EBITDA $24.5M with 55.6% margin; origination deployment at a record $124.9M .
  • Fee-related earnings building: first full quarter of asset management fees post acquisitions ($7.8M); longevity funds inflows $122.8M and ETF net inflows ~$44M underpin more recurring revenue .
  • Guidance intact: FY 2025 adjusted net income $70–$78M maintained; management’s tone confident on origination, asset management, and liquidity .
  • Balance sheet provides flexibility: cash $43.8M; policy assets $448.1M; ability to recycle capital through policy sales and fund inflows .
  • Watch near-term stock overhang: June short-seller and legal investigation press releases pressured shares; management previously highlighted repurchase authorization as valuation-sensitive tool .
  • Trendline positive into 2025: rebranding/marketing traction, ABL Tech client growth (~1M lives), expanding carrier/reinsurer relationships, and diversified verticals support medium-term thesis .
  • Actionable: Focus on sustainability of >50% EBITDA margins, asset management fee ramp, and capital deployment pace; monitor disclosures in upcoming supplements (AUM, segment detail) to refine models .
Disclosures:
- All financial figures and commentary sourced from ABL’s Q1 2025 8-K (Item 2.02 and Exhibit 99.1) and earnings call transcript, plus prior quarters’ filings/calls and relevant press releases. Where S&P Global consensus estimates were unavailable, this is noted explicitly; values retrieved from S&P Global.*

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