AI
Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q2 2025 delivered double beats: revenue $3.10B vs S&P Global consensus $3.03B*, and diluted EPS $1.03 vs $0.94*, driven by 7% YoY Nights & Seats growth, +3% ADR to $174, and a slightly higher implied take rate (13.2%) aided by Easter timing and cross-currency fees .
- Management issued Q3 guidance for $4.02–$4.10B revenue (+8–10% YoY) with ADR up modestly YoY (FX-driven), Nights & Seats growth “relatively stable” vs Q2; Adjusted EBITDA >$2.0B but margin lower YoY on growth/policy investments; FY25 Adjusted EBITDA margin “at least 34.5%” reiterated .
- Mix and geography: strength in expansion markets (Latin America high-teens, APAC mid-teens YoY Nights growth), while North America growth was low-single digits; LatAm ADR declined 3% on FX (ex-FX +2%) .
- Capital return and catalysts: $1.0B repurchased in Q2; new $6B authorization announced (in addition to $1.5B remaining), plus AI/customer service roll-out (15% fewer escalations), Services & Experiences relaunch momentum, and major event partnerships (FIFA/Olympics/Lollapalooza/Tour de France) .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Broad-based beat and execution: “strong Q2, exceeding expectations across key metrics including bookings, revenue, and margins” .
- Product and AI leverage: App bookings reached 59% (vs 55% LY) and AI support now live to 100% of U.S. users, cutting the share needing a human agent by 15% .
- Expansion and partnerships: Expansion markets grew Nights on an origin basis ~2x core for six consecutive quarters; new global partnerships (FIFA Club World Cup 2025™, FIFA World Cup 26™, FIFA Women’s World Cup 2027™, IOC/Winter Olympics, Tour de France, Lollapalooza) to drive awareness and supply .
What Went Wrong
- Regional mix and FX headwinds: North America Nights growth was low-single digits; LatAm ADR declined 3% YoY on FX (ex-FX +2%) .
- H2 margin pressure: Q3 Adjusted EBITDA margin guided lower YoY due to new growth and policy investments; a similar YoY decline expected in Q4 given tougher top-line comps .
- Tougher comps into Q3/Q4: Management highlighted that year-over-year comparisons get “tougher toward the end of the quarter,” putting pressure on growth rates later in the year .
Financial Results
Q2 2025 Actual vs S&P Global Consensus
- Revenue: $3.096B actual vs $3.030B consensus* → Beat .
- Diluted EPS: $1.03 actual vs $0.94 consensus* → Beat .
*Values retrieved from S&P Global (Capital IQ).
KPIs and Monetization
Regional Highlights (Qualitative)
Capital Return and Balance Sheet (Q2 2025)
- Repurchased $1.0B; diluted shares down to 652M (from 673M LY) .
- Liquidity: $11.4B in cash, equivalents, ST investments and restricted cash; $11.1B funds held on behalf of customers .
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “Airbnb had a strong Q2, exceeding expectations across key metrics including bookings, revenue, and margins.”
- “We’re expanding our AI-powered customer service agent to 100% of U.S. users, reducing the percentage… who needed to contact a human agent by 15%.”
- “We’re announcing a new share repurchase program… up to an additional $6 billion of our Class A common stock.”
- “We are not satisfied with the company growing approximately 10% year over year. We want the company to reaccelerate.”
- “We launched Airbnb Services and completely reimagined Airbnb Experiences… average guest rating… 4.93 stars.”
Q&A Highlights
- Experiences attach rate and quality: Management expects attach to rise but offered no targets; every Experience is vetted, achieving >4.93 average rating vs 4.8 for homes .
- Marketing strategy: Market the full bundle (homes/services/experiences); shifting spend from TV to social for better targeting and performance .
- H2 guide and comps: Year-over-year comparisons tough later in Q3 and into Q4 after acceleration last year; expect Q4 growth to decelerate vs Q3 on a YoY basis .
- Lead times: Compressed in April but normalized over Q2; entering Q3, lead times “lengthened a little,” signaling healthier booking confidence .
- New “Nights & Seats” metric: “Seats” (services/experiences) are immaterial today; redefinition does not yet drive mix .
Estimates Context
- Q2 2025 vs S&P Global consensus: Revenue $3.096B vs $3.030B*; Diluted EPS $1.03 vs $0.94* → both beats. Actual revenue outperformance reflects Nights & Seats +7% YoY, +3% ADR and a slightly higher implied take rate aided by Easter timing and cross-currency fees .
- Street models likely need to reflect: (i) Q3 revenue guide $4.02–$4.10B, (ii) ADR modestly up on FX, (iii) margin compression in Q3/Q4 on growth/policy investments, (iv) flat implied take rate YoY in Q3 .
*Values retrieved from S&P Global (Capital IQ).
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Clean beat/raise: Double beat on revenue and EPS with constructive Q3 revenue guide, but flagged tougher comps and lower YoY EBITDA margins in Q3/Q4 due to investment—watch for multiple compression risk near prints vs improving 2026 setup .
- Expansion markets are the growth engine: Latin America and APAC drive double-digit Nights growth, outpacing core for six straight quarters; geographic mix and FX remain key modeling variables .
- AI/product flywheel: Rising app engagement, AI-driven support gains, and a faster tech stack underpin conversion and cross-sell (services/experiences) momentum—an upside lever to LTV over time .
- Capital returns as support: $1.0B buyback in Q2 and a new $6B authorization provide downside support and EPS accretion; diluted share count down to 652M (from 673M LY) .
- Monetization levers intact: Implied take rate 13.2% (helped by cross-currency fees/Easter) and paid guest insurance rollout; Q3 implied take rate guided flat YoY .
- Watch NA trajectory and ADR: North America remains low-single-digit Nights growth; ADR mixed by region (LatAm FX headwind) .
- Near-term trading setup: Positive on beats/buyback, balanced by H2 margin guide and comps; medium-term thesis hinges on expansion market share gains, AI-enabled conversion, and scaling new Services/Experiences .
Appendix: Additional Detail
- Services/Experiences early traction: >60,000 host applications since launch; guest feedback >4.9/5 average rating; seats currently immaterial to “Nights & Seats” .
- Supply quality and availability: Co-Host Network now supports >100,000 listings (>10M nights booked); >500,000 low-quality listings removed since 2023 .
- Liquidity and cash generation: Q2 TTM FCF $4.275B (37% margin); Q2 CFO $0.975B, FCF $0.962B .
- Prior quarter framing: Q1 revenue $2.27B (+6% YoY), EPS $0.24, Adjusted EBITDA $0.417B (18% margin); Q2 revenue guide at the time was $2.99–$3.05B (actual came in above) .
- Q4 2024 context: Nights growth accelerated to 12% in Q4 2024; FY24 FCF $4.5B (40% margin) .
Note: All non-GAAP metrics (e.g., Adjusted EBITDA, FCF) are reconciled in the shareholder letter and 8-K exhibits .