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Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024 revenue was $2.50B, up 12% YoY; net income was $461M (19% margin) and Adjusted EBITDA was $765M (31% margin). Nights & Experiences Booked accelerated to 12% YoY (111.0M) and GBV rose 13% YoY to $17.6B .
  • Revenue modestly exceeded prior Q4 guidance ($2.39–$2.44B) given in November, reflecting stronger demand and monetization initiatives (e.g., cross‑currency service fee and expanded travel insurance) .
  • Implied take rate declined slightly YoY due to tough comps from one‑time gift-card breakage in Q4 2023, partially offset by the new cross‑currency fee introduced in 2024; app bookings reached 60% of nights, aiding conversion .
  • Q1 2025 guidance: revenue $2.23–$2.27B (+4–6% YoY; +7–9% ex‑FX), nights growth relatively stable ex‑leap day; ADR expected to decline slightly YoY on FX; Adjusted EBITDA margin to decline YoY on calendar/FX, with full‑year 2025 margin “at least 34.5%,” including $200–$250M investments in new businesses set to launch in May 2025 .
  • Capital return remained active: $838M of repurchases in Q4, $3.4B for FY 2024; fully diluted share count fell to 658M by year end, with $3.3B still authorized—an ongoing support for per‑share metrics .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Nights growth accelerated Q/Q to 12% YoY (111.0M), with GBV +13% YoY to $17.6B; APAC and LATAM led growth, and first‑time bookers accelerated, showcasing traction from product optimizations and global expansion .
  • Mobile/app execution improved conversion: app bookings rose to 60% of nights (from 55%), supported by a rebuilt tech stack, enhanced checkout, personalized search/merchandising, and local payments in nearly two dozen countries .
  • Monetization initiatives continued: expansion of paid guest travel insurance (now across 12 of the largest countries) and added cross‑currency service fee; free cash flow remained robust ($458M in Q4; $4.5B TTM, 40% margin) .
  • Quote: “We’ve rebuilt our platform from the ground up… With this new tech platform, we can innovate faster and expand beyond short‑term rentals into an extensible platform with a range of new offerings” — Brian Chesky .

What Went Wrong

  • Adjusted EBITDA margin compressed to 31% from 33% in Q4 2023 due to higher sales/marketing and product development investment intensity; implied take rate edged down on tough comps tied to prior gift‑card breakage .
  • ADR only +1% YoY (2% ex‑FX) to $158, with FX headwinds weighing in Q1 2025; North America growth mid‑single digits indicates ongoing need to penetrate hotel‑heavy urban markets .
  • Q1 2025 guide implies a softer start (calendar/FX headwinds) and lower EBITDA margin YoY; company plans $200–$250M incremental investments in new businesses, pressuring margins through Q3 before benefits ramp .

Financial Results

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD Billions)$2.748 $3.732 $2.480
Net Income ($USD Millions)$555 $1,368 $461
Diluted EPS ($USD)$0.86 $2.13 $0.73
Net Income Margin (%)20% 37% 19%
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$894 $1,958 $765
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)33% 52% 31%
Free Cash Flow ($USD Millions)$1,043 $1,074 $458
KPIsQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Nights & Experiences Booked (Millions)125.1 122.8 111.0
Gross Booking Value ($USD Billions)$21.2 $20.1 $17.6
ADR ($USD)$170 $164 $158
Financial Results vs Prior GuidanceQ4 Guidance (Nov)Q4 Actual (Feb)Result
Revenue ($USD Billions)$2.39–$2.44 $2.480 Beat top end

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Revenue ($USD Billions)Q1 2025N/A$2.23–$2.27 (+4–6% YoY; +7–9% ex‑FX) New
Nights & Experiences Booked (YoY)Q1 2025N/ARelatively stable vs Q1 2024, excluding leap day (~+1ppt in 2024) New
ADR (YoY)Q1 2025N/ASlight decline YoY (FX‑driven); ex‑FX slight increase New
Adjusted EBITDA MarginQ1 2025N/ADecline YoY on calendar/FX; ex‑headwinds ~flat YoY New
Adjusted EBITDA MarginFY 2025N/AAt least 34.5% (includes $200–$250M investments) New
Investments in New BusinessesFY 2025N/A$200–$250M to launch/scale offerings (May launch) New
Effective Tax RateFY 2025N/ASlightly below long‑term ~20% New

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ2 2024 (Prior Mentions)Q3 2024 (Prior Mentions)Q4 2024 (Current)Trend
AI/technology initiativesReiterated platform optimizations, Icons rollout; app downloads +25% YoY; app nights 55% of total More personalization; host quality system; co‑host network launched Rebuilt tech stack; AI‑powered customer support coming in Summer Release; broader platform expansion beyond stays Scaling; moving from optimizations to AI support and new platform scope
App conversion & paymentsPromoted local payments; group features drove sign‑ups/bookings App nights 58%; conversion improvements; local payments expanded App nights 60%; redesigned checkout; flexible/local payments in ~24 countries Up and improving
Regional growthAPAC & LATAM fastest; NA non‑urban/group strength APAC cross‑border +23% YoY; LATAM domestic +21% APAC cross‑border +27% YoY; LATAM nights +low‑20s; Brazil >20% origin nights growth Broad‑based; APAC/LATAM leading
Monetization/take rateQ3 implied take rate higher YoY (timing/cross‑currency; offset by CS contra‑rev) Q4 implied take rate expected slightly lower YoY on gift‑card breakage in 2023 Q4 implied take rate 14.1% down slightly YoY on tough comps; cross‑currency fee applies to ~20% GBV Mixed; comps normalize in 2025
Regulatory/legal—Olympics/Paris support; brand/quality initiatives Cities increasingly see Airbnb as partner; NYC outlier; DMA not applicable Positive engagement ex‑NYC
New businesses (May 2025)—“Next chapter” flagged for 2025 $200–$250M investments; one app, adjacent travel/services; aim to increase usage frequency Launching; margin investment bias near term

Management Commentary

  • “2024, Airbnb outpaced the travel industry’s growth… we’ve rolled out more than 535 features and upgrades to improve the experience” — Brian Chesky .
  • “For Q1, we expect revenue between $2.23–$2.27B (+4–6% YoY; +7–9% ex‑FX)… adjusted EBITDA margin to decline YoY on the same factors” — Ellie Mertz .
  • “Later this year… AI‑powered customer support… over the coming years… graduate to be a travel and living concierge” — Brian Chesky .
  • “We plan to invest $200–$250M this year towards launching and scaling new businesses… still deliver a full‑year adjusted EBITDA margin of at least 34.5%” — Ellie Mertz .
  • “Our strong balance sheet allowed us to repurchase $838M in Q4 and $3.4B for the full year; $3.3B remaining authorization” — Ellie Mertz .

Q&A Highlights

  • Global market localization: Expansion markets growing ~2x core; Brazil is a success case; Japan requires longer build due to lower awareness; investments will flow through marketing and product development lines .
  • AI strategy: Begin with customer support, then evolve into search and concierge; internal efficiency potential but industry‑wide gains likely medium‑term; margin benefits to come over time .
  • Capital allocation: Continued mix of organic investment, opportunistic M&A, and repurchases; repurchase cadence price‑sensitive and expected similar magnitude to 2024 .
  • Take rate: 2024 saw offsets (make‑goods, gift‑card breakage comps); 2025 expected to benefit ~20bps from cross‑currency fee without similar offsets .
  • Regulation: Cities viewing Airbnb as solution (Paris Olympics, disasters); NYC remains an outlier; DMA not applicable .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global consensus estimates for Q4 2024 were unavailable due to request limits; therefore, we cannot present EPS/revenue vs consensus comparisons for this quarter (Values retrieved from S&P Global)*.
  • Near‑term Street models may need to incorporate Q1 2025 revenue $2.23–$2.27B (+4–6% YoY; +7–9% ex‑FX), ADR slight YoY decline on FX, and a Q1 EBITDA margin decline YoY, as well as at least 34.5% FY 2025 Adjusted EBITDA margin including $200–$250M investments .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Demand momentum strengthened into Q4 with nights acceleration and broad‑based regional growth; conversion tailwinds from app and checkout improvements support 2025 growth .
  • Monetization continues to diversify (insurance, cross‑currency fee), but implied take rate saw tough comps in Q4; normalization plus fee annualization should aid 2025 take rate .
  • Q1 2025 will be optics‑challenged (calendar/FX), but ex‑headwinds growth and margin look stable; consider positioning around May new‑business launch as a potential catalyst .
  • Margin investment phase: $200–$250M targeted to launch/scale adjacencies; management still guides to ≥34.5% FY 2025 Adjusted EBITDA margin, preserving strong profitability .
  • Capital returns remain a meaningful lever: $838M Q4 repurchases, $3.4B FY, and $3.3B remaining authorization underpin per‑share metrics amid investment cycle .
  • Quality/supply initiatives (Guest Favorites; listing removals) and co‑host network scaling (≈100k listings) should enhance reliability and unlock supply, supporting share gains vs hotels .
  • Medium‑term thesis: tech stack rebuild and AI‑enabled service can increase use frequency and open new revenue adjacencies, while maintaining disciplined capital allocation .

Additional Relevant Press Releases and Materials

  • Airbnb announces date for Q4 and FY 2024 results (Jan 30, 2025) .
  • Q4 2024 results press release directing to shareholder letter (Feb 13, 2025) .
* S&P Global consensus estimates were attempted but unavailable due to daily request limit being exceeded. As a result, consensus comparisons are not included for Q4 2024. Values retrieved from S&P Global.