Arbor Realty Trust - Earnings Call - Q4 2024

Executive Summary

• Q4 results were solid operationally but marked by an explicit guidance reset: GAAP EPS $0.32 and distributable EPS $0.40; management now guides 2025 distributable EPS to $0.30–$0.35 per quarter and indicated the common dividend will likely be reset starting Q1 to align with the new earnings range.
• Agency platform delivered resilient margins and growth despite higher rates: originations $1.38B with gain-on-sale margin 1.75% (up from 1.67% in Q3); servicing UPB reached ~$33.47B, +8% YoY.
• Structured portfolio continued to shrink deleveraging risk: UPB down to $11.30B; leverage cut to 2.8x from a ~4.0x peak; financing cost improved as SOFR fell and CLO/bank markets eased.
• Credit remained manageable with active resolutions: NPL UPB $651.8M (26 loans) and <60-day delinquencies down to $167.4M; total delinquencies were ~$819M but fell 13% QoQ as modifications, payoffs and REO conversions progressed.
• Primary stock catalyst: dividend reset and lower 2025 earnings outlook driven by a higher-for-longer rate path and lower earnings on cash/escrows; partial offsets expected from funding cost efficiencies and pipeline conversion.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

• What Went Well

  • Agency execution: Q4 originations $1.38B vs. $1.10B in Q3; gain-on-sale margin rose to 1.75% from 1.67%; MSR income $13.3M (~0.99% of commitments).
  • Servicing scale and quality: fee-based servicing UPB reached ~$33.47B (+8% YoY) with 37.8 bps fee and 6.9-year life; Fitch upgraded Arbor’s primary servicer rating to CPS2+ (Dec 3, 2024).
  • Deleveraging/funding: leverage reduced ~30% to 2.8x; cost of funds improved (avg 7.10% vs. 7.58% in Q3) amid healthier CLO/bank markets.

• What Went Wrong

  • Earnings headwinds and reset: 2025 distributable EPS guided to $0.30–$0.35/quarter; dividend likely reset beginning Q1; lower earnings on escrow/cash ($80–$85M run-rate vs. $120M in 2024).
  • Credit drag and REO transition: total delinquencies at ~$819M; REO expected to rise to $400–$500M with low near-term NOI (~$7M) before repositioning to ~$30M over 12–24 months, temporarily depressing earnings.
  • Macro sensitivity dampening volumes: higher 5/10-year rates are slowing agency takeouts and borrower activity; pipeline needs the 10-year back near ~4.0–4.25% to accelerate closings.

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the fourth quarter and full year 2024 Arbor Realty Trust earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. To ask a question during this period, you will need to press Star 1 on your telephone. If you want to remove yourself from the queue, please press Star 2. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. If you should need operator assistance, please press Star 0. I would now like to turn the call over to your speaker today, Paul Elenio, Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead.

Paul Elenio (CFO)

Okay. Thank you, Madison. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the quarterly earnings call for Arbor Realty Trust. This morning, we'll discuss the results for the quarter and year-end of December 31st, 2024. With me on the call today is Ivan Kaufman, our President and Chief Executive Officer. Before we begin, I need to inform you that statements made in this earnings call may be deemed forward-looking statements that are subject to risk and uncertainties, including information about possible or assumed future results of our business, financial condition, liquidity, results of operations, plans, and objectives.

These statements are based on our beliefs, assumptions, and expectations of our future performance, taking into account the information that's currently available to us. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from Arbor's expectations in these forward-looking statements are detailed in our SEC reports.

Listeners are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of today. Arbor undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise these forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances as of today or the occurrences of unanticipated events. I'll now turn the call over to Arbor's President and CEO, Ivan Kaufman.

Ivan Kaufman (CEO)

Thank you, Paul, and thanks to everyone for joining us on today's call. As you can see from this morning's press release, we had a solid fourth quarter and closed out 2024 as another very strong year despite an extremely challenging environment. We've executed our business plan very effectively and in line with our expectations, and despite a tremendously volatile and elevated interest rate environment for almost three years now, we've managed to continue to outperform our peers in every major financial category, including our dividend, shareholder return, and book value preservation.

We were well-positioned for this dislocation. As we're going into this cycle, we had a large cushion between our earnings and dividends. We're well-capitalized and invested in the right asset class with the appropriate liability structures. This allowed us to outperform our peers and continue to pay our dividend while mostly all of our peers had to cut their dividends substantially, some multiple times during this cycle, and also experienced significant book value erosion.

One of the items we have consistently discussed on our calls is how we felt that this dislocation would persist and result in a much slower recovery if rates remained higher for longer, which is something we were well-prepared for. However, rates have not just remained elevated. They have actually increased significantly, with the 10-year rising from 3.60 in September to as high as 4.80 in January, and now it's hovering around 4.50, with current outlook suggesting it will remain at these levels for the near term. This is a material change in the market, resulting in significant headwinds that will affect everybody in the space.

These elevated rates are creating a very challenging environment as it relates to agency origination volumes, and where we've experienced success over the last few years in getting borrowers through the transition of fixed-rate loans and recapture deals, we expect this environment will create a deceleration in this area as well. We have also seen a 100 basis points decrease in SOFR over the last 12 months, which is reducing the earnings on our escrows and cash balances.

Additionally, we expect there will be a temporary drag on earnings from the REO assets that we're repositioning over the next 12 to 24 months, and that I will discuss in later detail. However, this will partially be offset by efficiencies we expect to generate from reducing borrowing costs in the securitization market and with our commercial banks, as well as growth in our servicing portfolio value.

As a result of these changing macroeconomic events, we are revising our earnings outlook for the foreseeable future until we see improvements in the rate environment. Based on these factors, we are now estimating that our earnings for 2025 will be in the range of $0.30-$0.35 a quarter, and we'll likely reset our dividends starting in the first quarter of this year in accordance with this new guidance. This outlook is reflective of the newly elevated rate environment. However, if there is a material change in short-term or long-term rates in the future, we will revise our outlook accordingly.

It's important to note that we were the only firm in our peer group to set our dividend, to draw our dividend over the last five years by 43%, while every other company in our space has cut their dividends some multiple times by 40% on average, with only one company keeping their dividend flat in the last five years. And if we assume that we reset our dividend to the midpoint of our new earnings guidance, our dividend will be up approximately 8%, which is again, which again is compared to our peers who are down at an average of 40%.

Additionally, over the last five years, we have also grown our book value by 26% while recording significant reserves, which is an incredible accomplishment, especially considering that our peers actually experienced a 25% erosion in their book values. We have done a very effective job despite elevated rates of working through our loan portfolio by getting borrowers to recapture deals and purchase interest rate caps. In 2024, we were able to successfully modify $4.1 billion of loans, with borrowers committing to inject $130 million of additional capital into their deals.

We also modified another $600 million of loans in 2023, bringing our total loan modifications over the last two years to $4.7 billion, or roughly 60% of the remaining legacy loan book. This is tremendous progress, especially in light of the elevated rate environment that has resulted in the large portion of our loan book being successfully repositioned into performing assets with enhanced collateral values. We've also done an exceptional job in bringing in new sponsors to take over assets, either concessionally or through foreclosure.

In fact, in the last two years, we have brought in new sponsors to recap deals with substantial new equity on approximately $900 million of loans. This is a very important strategy that, again, successfully repositions assets with the appropriate capital, putting our loans in a much more secure position with experienced sponsors and creates more predictable future income streams. And again, it's reflective of us recording the appropriate level of reserves on these distressed assets.

And despite elevated rates, we also generated strong runoff over the last two years, with $3.4 billion of runoff in 2023 and $2.7 billion in 2024, an amazing accomplishment. We also continue to make strong progress despite the unprecedented move up in rates on the approximate $1 billion of loans that were past due at September 30th.

In the fourth quarter, we successfully modified $140 million of these loans, generated $151 million of payoffs, and took back approximately $120 million of REO assets, all of which we were able to bring in new sponsors to operate and assume our debt. This is strong progress in one quarter and has reduced the $944 million of delinquencies we had at September 30th down to $534 million at December 31st, or a 44% decrease.

We did experience additional delinquencies during the quarter of approximately $286 million, bringing our total delinquencies at December 31st to approximately $819 million, which is down 13% in the quarter and down 22% from our peak, which is in line with our previous guidance, even in the face of rising interest rates.

Our plans for resolving our remaining delinquencies is to take back as REO, including bringing in new sponsorship, approximately 40%-50% of this quarter, with the other 40%-50% of the paying book being modified in the future. This should put our REO assets on our balance sheet in a range of $400 million-$500 million, with another roughly $150 million-$200 million that we will have brought in new sponsorship to operate.

This $400 million-$500 million of REO assets will be on the heavy-lifted portion of our loan book that we estimate will take approximately 12-24 months to reposition. The performance of these assets has been greatly affected by poor management and from being undercapitalized. Today, these properties have an average occupancy of 35% and an estimated NOI of around $7 million, which is very low and will temporarily affect our earnings.

We believe there is great opportunity for us to step in and reposition these assets and significantly grow the occupancy to around 90% and NOI to approximately $30 million over the next 12-24 months, which will increase our future earnings significantly. We are working exceptionally hard on resolving our delinquencies, which, as I mentioned, has been significantly affected by the current rate environment. If rates come down sooner, then we expect it will have a positive impact on our ability to convert non-interest earning assets to income-producing investments earlier, which will be the key to our future earnings.

This is a challenging and demanding work, and despite the increasing headwinds, I am very pleased with the progress we have made today. In our balance sheet lending platform, we have had an active fourth quarter originating $370 million of new bridge loans and $36 million of preferred equity investments behind our agency originations.

As we said in our last call, we have started to ramp up our bridge lending program to take advantage of the opportunities we're seeing in today's market to originate high-quality short-term bridge loans and generate strong level returns on our capital in the short term while continuing to build up a significant pipeline of future agency deals, which is critical part of our strategy.

Depending on the rate environment, we believe we can originate $1.5-$2 billion of bridge loans product in 2025 and enhance our level returns to increase the efficiency we're seeing in the securitization market with our commercial banks. Another major component of our unique business model is our capital-light agency platform, which provides a strategic advantage, allowing us to continue to deliver our balance sheet and generate significant long-dated income streams, which is a key part of our business strategy.

We have been a significant player in the agency business for 20 years and now have been a top 10 DUS lender for 18 years in a row, coming in at number six in 2023 and eighth for 2024. We had a very strong fourth quarter originating $1.35 billion of new agency loans, which, as you remember, was towards the top end of the range that we guided in our last quarter's call. We explained that our origination targets were $1.2-$1.5 billion Q4, depending on the rate environment. Despite the significant uptick in rates in the fourth quarter, we were well above what we had anticipated.

We still managed to produce very strong volumes. We closed out 2024 with $4.3 billion of agency volume despite a volatile rate environment throughout the year. With rates where they are today, we are experiencing a very challenging origination climate, and if they continue to remain elevated, it is likely going forward will result in a 10%-20% decline in our agency production from 2025 to a range of $3.5-$4 billion, which will again be very rate-dependent.

We also did a good job converting our balance sheet loans into agency product in 2024, despite elevated rates. In the fourth quarter, we generated $900 million of payoffs and $530 million, or 59% of these loans being refinanced into fixed-rate agency deals for the full year of 2024. We recaptured 65%, or $1.6 billion of the $2.5 billion of multifamily balance sheet runoff into agency production. This is on top of the $3 billion of multifamily runoff we generated in 2023, with a 56% recapture rate into agency loans.

As I stated earlier, with rates at these levels, it has certainly become more challenging for borrowers to obtain an agency takeout on our balance sheet loans. We continue to do an excellent job in growing our single-family rental business. We had a strong quarter with $1.7 billion in new loans in 2024, which is our best year yet and was well above our 2023 production of $1.2 billion. We have now eclipsed $5 billion of production in this platform today, and we are very excited about the opportunities we're seeing to continue to grow this platform and make it a bigger contributor to our overall business.

This is a great business as it offers us free terms on our capital through construction, bridges, and permanent lending opportunities, and generates strong level returns in the short term while providing significant long-term benefits by further diversifying our income streams. We also continue to make steady progress on our newly added construction lending business.

We believe this product is very appropriate for our platform as it offers free terms on our capital through construction, bridges, and permanent agency lending opportunities and generates mid- to high-teens returns on our capital. We closed our first deal in the third quarter for $47 million, our second deal in the fourth quarter for $54 million. We have a long pipeline of roughly $200 million under application, another $200 million in NOIs, and $800 million of additional deals with the currently screening.

Based on our deal flow, we are confident in our ability to originate between $250-$500 million of this business in 2025. In summary, we had a strong 2024, once again significantly outperforming our peers. We have executed our business plan very effectively in alignment with our objectives. Clearly, the landscape has shifted significantly in the last 90 days, and we expect there to be a substantial headwinds in the near future.

We do believe we will have some positive offsets from reduced borrowing costs on our bank line and to a greater efficiency in the securitization market, as well as from continuing to fund up our bridge SFR and construction lending business, which generates strong level returns on our capital. Additionally, if short-term and long-term rates decline further, we will mitigate some of the headwinds we currently experience and increase our future earnings. In the meantime, we will remain heavily focused on working through and managing our loan book while continuing to grow areas of our business to increase the many diverse countercyclical income streams we've developed.

We have a very seasoned experienced management team that has operated effectively through multiple cycles. We continue to work extremely hard to balance this leveraged allocation, and I'm confident we will continue our long-standing track record of being a top performer in this space. I will now turn the call over to Paul to take you through the financial results.

Paul Elenio (CFO)

Okay, thank you, Ivan. We had a strong fourth quarter and full year of 2024, producing distributed earnings of $81.6 million, or $0.40 per share for the fourth quarter, and a balance of $0.74 for the year, which translates into ROEs of approximately 14% for 2024. As Ivan mentioned, due to the drastic change in the macroeconomic climate, adjusting our forecast of distributed earnings for 2025 to $0.30-$0.35 per quarter.

Clearly, rates have played a big factor in our earnings outlook, and future changes in the interest rate environment will more certainly dictate whether we can grow our earnings sooner than planned. We've also been affected by elevated legal and consulting fees as a direct result of the short-seller reports, which is something we expect will continue for the foreseeable future.

We estimate these fees will be approximately $0.03-$0.05 a share going forward, which is reflective in our new guidance. In the fourth quarter, we modified another 15 loans totaling $470 million. On approximately $206 million of these loans, we required borrowers to invest additional capital to recap their deals, thus providing some form of temporary rate relief through a PIK feature. The pay rates were modified on average to approximately 5.5%, with 2.3% of the residual interest due being deferred until maturity.

$140 million of these loans were delinquent last quarter and are now current in accordance with their modified terms. In the fourth quarter, we accrued $18.7 million of interest related to all modifications with PIK features. $7.6 million is related to modifications that were completed in years prior to 2024, and $1 million is on meds and PE loans originated in 2024 behind agency loans that have a PIK feature as part of their normal structure.

This leaves $10 million worth of accrued interest in the fourth quarter related to modifications of bridge loans in 2024, $1.5 million of which is related to our fourth quarter modifications. The table summarizing all of our 2023 and 2024 material modifications and the related accrued interest on these loans is detailed in our 10-K, which we expect to file later this afternoon.

Our total delinquencies are now 13%, $819 million at September 31st, compared to $945 million at September 30th. These delinquencies are made up of two buckets: loans that are greater than 60 days past due and loans that are less than 60 days past due that we're not recording interest income on unless we believe the cash will be received.

The 60-plus delinquent loans for NPLs were approximately $652 million this quarter, compared to $625 million last quarter, due to approximately $128 million of loans progressing from less than 60 days delinquent to greater than 60 days past due, and $153 million of additional defaulted loans during the quarter, which was largely offset by $134 million of payoffs and modifications and $120 million of loans taken back as REO.

The second bucket, consisting of loans that are less than 60 days past due, came down to $167 million this quarter from $319 million last quarter, due to $157 million of modifications and runoff, $128 million of loans progressing to greater than 60 days past due, which was partially offset by approximately $133 million of new delinquencies during the quarter, and while we're making good progress in resolving these delinquencies, at the same time, we do anticipate that we will continue to experience new delinquencies, especially in this current rate environment.

In accordance with our plan of resolving certain delinquent loans, we have foreclosed on some real estate, and we expect to take back more over the next few quarters, as Ivan guided to earlier. The process of taking control and working to improve these assets and create more of a current income stream takes time, which is even more challenging in this climate. Additionally, we have been very successful over the last few quarters in collecting back interest owed when we would modify certain loans.

A good portion of our remaining delinquencies are more of a heavy lift through foreclosure and repositioning over time, which will likely result in less back interest being collected going forward on workouts. These are some of the reasons we're guiding to reduce earnings in the near term. In the fourth quarter, we took back $120 million of REO assets. We've been highly successful at bringing in new sponsors on certain assets to take over the real estate and assume our debt.

This strategy is a very effective tool for turning dead capital on a non-performing loan into an interest-earning asset, which will increase our future earnings. In the fourth quarter, we accomplished this on two REO assets totaling about $70 million, which we're accounting for as sales and new loans. The other $51 million of REO is related to one asset that we took back in the fourth quarter that we subsequently decided to flip to a new sponsor and provide a new loan. We closed on this deal yesterday, and the purchase price was at our net carry value of $45 million, which is net of $5.7 million in specific reserves that we took on this asset in 2023 and 2024.

As a result, we will have a one-time realized loss in the first quarter of approximately $6 million, which we've already reserved for and is reflected in our book value, and we will now have a performing loan, which will add to our run rate of income. We believe we have done a very effective job of properly reserving for our assets over the last two years, and we did not incur any material losses in 2024. We are expecting to have some realized losses in 2025 through similar executions on REO assets and by repositioning certain loans with new sponsors, which we expect will be in line with our prior reserves on these assets.

The timing and magnitude of these losses is hard to predict at this point, but once we know a transaction is likely to occur, we will continue to signal that result ahead of time if possible. And again, please keep in mind that these potential losses reflect the reserves we've already taken, which demonstrates how prudent we've been in recording the right level of reserves on our loan book.

As a result of this environment, we continue to build our CECL reserves, recording an additional $13 million of specific reserves in our balance sheet loan book in the fourth quarter. And again, we feel we've done a good job of putting the right level of reserves in our assets, which is evident by transactions we have been able to effectuate to date at or around our carrying values net of reserves.

It's also important to emphasize that despite booking approximately $170 million in CECL reserves across our platform in the last two years, $135 million of which was in our balance sheet business, we saw a very nominal decrease in book value of around 2%, while our peers experienced an average book value decline of approximately 20% over that same time period.

Additionally, we are one of the only companies in our space that has seen significant book value appreciation over the last five years, with 26% growth during that time period versus our peers whose book values have actually declined an average of approximately 25%. In our agency business, we had an exceptional fourth quarter despite headwinds from higher rates. We produced $1.4 billion in origination and $1.3 billion in loan sales, with very strong margins of 1.75% for the fourth quarter compared to 1.67% last quarter.

We were also incredibly pleased with the margins we generated in 2024 of 1.63%, which exceeds 2023's pace of 1.48% by 10%. And we recorded $13.3 million of mortgage servicing rights income related to $1.35 million of committed loans in the fourth quarter, representing an average MSR rate of around 1%, which is down from 1.25% last quarter due to a higher mix of Freddie Mac loans in the fourth quarter, which contained lower servicing fees.

Our fee-based servicing portfolio also grew 8% year over year to approximately $33.5 billion December 31st, with a weighted average servicing fee of 38 basis points and an estimated remaining life of seven years. This portfolio will continue to generate a predictable annuity income going forward of around $127 million gross annually. As Ivan mentioned earlier, the 100 basis point decline in short-term rates has reduced the earnings on our cash and escrow balances.

We are now at a run rate of between $80 and $85 million at 11.25, compared to approximately $120 million that we earned in 2024, for a $35-$40 million reduction, which will affect our 2025 earnings. In our balance sheet lending operation, our $11.3 billion investment portfolio had an all-in yield of 7.8% December 31st, compared to 8.16% at September 30th, mainly due to a decrease in SOFR during the quarter.

The average balance in our core investments was $11.5 billion this quarter, compared to $11.8 billion last quarter, due to runoff exceeding originations in the third and fourth quarters. The average yield on these assets decreased to 8.52% from 9.04% last quarter, mainly due to a reduction in SOFR, which was partially offset by more back interest collected in the fourth quarter on loan modifications and paydowns.

Total debt on our core assets decreased to approximately $9.5 billion at December 31st from $10 billion at September 30th, mostly due to paying down CLO debt with cash in those vehicles in the fourth quarter. The all-in cost of debt was down to approximately 6.88% at 12/31 versus 7.18% at 9/30, mostly due to a reduction in SOFR, which was partially offset by lower rate debt tranches being paid down from CLO runoff and the new $100 million unsecured debt instrument being closed in the fourth quarter.

The average balance on our debt facilities was down to approximately $9.7 billion for the fourth quarter, compared to $10.1 billion last quarter, mainly due to paydowns in our CLO vehicles from runoff in the fourth quarter. And the average cost of funds on our debt facilities was 7.10% in the fourth quarter, compared to 7.58% for the third quarter, again from a decline in SOFR. Our overall net interest spreads on our core assets were relatively flat at 1.42% this quarter versus 1.46% last quarter, and our overall spot net interest spreads were 0.92% at December 31st and 0.98% at September 30th.

And lastly, and very significantly, we've managed to delever our business 30% during this dislocation to a leverage ratio of 2.8 to 1 from a peak of around 4.0 to 1 two years ago. That completes our prepared remarks for this morning, and I'll now turn it back to the operator to take any questions you may have at this time. Madison?

Operator (participant)

Thank you. And as a reminder, to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone. To withdraw your question, press star two. So others can hear your questions clearly, we ask that you pick up your handset for best sound quality. And we'll take our first question from Steve Delaney with Citizens JMP. Please go ahead.

Steve Delaney (Analyst)

Good morning, Ivan and Paul. Thanks for taking the question. And look, for starters, just really appreciate you guys being up front with us today about your expectations for the dividend in 2025. It's just, I think it's a lot easier for the market to hear that today than in March when you have to declare first quarter. So thank you for that clarity. Ivan, you talked about some resolutions involving outside money. I'm curious, this opportunity that starts with your stressed bridge loans and eventually just it rolls into REO.

So I think we're talking about the same investment opportunity. Are you seeing institutional money, big money, fresh money looking at this space as a unique, maybe once-in-a-decade opportunity? Is that money coming in? And if it's not coming in, do we need that to get this problem cleaned up in the next one to two years? Thank you.

Ivan Kaufman (CEO)

So I'm going to bifurcate my response because you have two and I'll add a little color to it. Number one, in the third quarter or fourth quarter, when the ten-year and the five-year shot considerably, you were seeing a real level of activity re-entry into the space. And right prior to the election, as you know, the ten-year jumped from 360 to 480, and I think everything went on pause. So there's a bit of a pause period. But there are two types of collateral that we're looking at, and I mentioned in my comments.

The ones that we effectively transition to new sponsors, there's a lot of demand for that. And there is plenty of capital and plenty of entrepreneurial capital for that. A lot of it is people who have access to institutional money or high net worth. And there's plenty of activity. Every time we look at an asset, we have multiple bids on those assets. So those are good.

The more difficult part is the ones where the heavy lift REOs, which is kind of where it takes time to get your hands on those assets. Sponsors are kind of rascals. They steal the cash flow, don't manage those assets, and they get brought down to a level where we need to bring in our own capability, get those up to speed. Once they're up to speed, there'll be a lot of demand for them.

I think there's a little bit of a pause in the market, and that's really reflective of our comments. I'm not sure why everybody's so excited. I went to NMHC about a month and a month and a half ago, and I was shocked at how people were thinking they're going to have a great year in light of the increased rate environment. I think a lot will have to do with where rates settle in.

Clearly, we're hovering around 450. If you see rates go down to where they were, you'll see tons of money flood back into the space, and you'll have the exuberance that we were experiencing on our last quarter's call where the refinance volumes and the activity was starting to pick up. It's very much rate-driven, in my opinion.

Steve Delaney (Analyst)

So I'm hearing you say the outside money right now, as you sit today, you rework a bridge loan, and there's new sponsors, there's people willing to step in there. The heavier lift, if you've got an REO, 30% lease, needs further renovation, whatever, that's something you feel like your team at Arbor is better equipped to take that property over, manage the property, and then look to sell that property in 12-24 months. Am I hearing you clear on that?

Ivan Kaufman (CEO)

That's correct. That's correct. Every time we get on hand, and these are the ones where it's more difficult to get your hands on, because, as I said, these sponsors are a bit of bad players in the market using the legal system to delay the process, steal the cash flow, and not manage the assets.

So every single asset that we take back, as we're taking it back, we have a 24-month plan, and we're able to really show how we can get it from where it is today, monthly, monthly, monthly, increasing NOI, putting the right CapEx to get this stuff to speed. And our guess is we're going to be able to sell those assets somewhere between 12 and 24 months at the right valuation once we stabilize it.

Steve Delaney (Analyst)

Okay. Thanks. Paul, a quick one for you to close out. In December, Fitch upgraded Arbor's primary servicing rating to CPS2 Plus. It looks like a large focus of that was on your agency servicing. But to any extent, did that servicing upgrade reflect the work you were doing on the bridge loans in your CLOs?

Paul Elenio (CFO)

Yeah. I don't have the definitive answer, but I do believe you are correct, Steve, that the majority of that rating is not all that has to do with how we're servicing the agency book. It may have some impact on the balance sheet book, but we would just upgrade it because of the quality of servicing shop we have. We've made a lot of investment in that division, both from a technology perspective and staffing perspective, and our rating just keeps getting better and better, which I think should not be overlooked, as you just mentioned. I'm glad you pointed that out.

Ivan Kaufman (CEO)

Steve, getting back to your comment, I was just reflecting on in terms of the assets. We tried very well. The assets that we put to new sponsors and the level of improvement is remarkable. You're taking assets that were probably having occupancies in the mid-70s, well on their way to 90%. The cosmetics, the improvements are remarkable. So when we're able to transition to new ownership, we end up with an asset that becomes extremely more valuable in a very, very short period of time because we're able to bring our expertise to the table where that expertise and capital were lacking.

The stuff that we retain, our goal is to get these assets in that position in 12, 18 months or 24, whatever it is, and then bring in those sponsors so we can get the right valuations and more reflective of where we think the values are. We have a great track record on it. In fact, we had a loan we took back two years ago, which was 70% occupied. We're just selling it right now for probably close to more than the debt. We got the occupancy up to 93%, and the performance where it needs to be. So that's kind of standard for how we run our business.

Steve Delaney (Analyst)

Thank you both for the call this morning.

Ivan Kaufman (CEO)

Thanks, Steve.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. And we will take our next question from Steven Laws with Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Stephen Laws (Managing Director)

Hi. Good morning. I wanted to touch on modifications from last year. I think it was around $4 billion, a lot of which was done in the early part of the year, maybe when borrowers and everybody had a different interest rate outlook. Can you talk about how you expect those modified loans to perform over 2025? Were those modifications how many were somewhat reliant on some relief from rates over the course of 2025? How do you expect are those modifications typically 12- or 6-month duration extensions? Or how do we think about the modified loans maturing over the course of this year?

Ivan Kaufman (CEO)

I think it's important to have a little bit of an overall view. Keep in mind that we have runoff in our portfolio over the last two years of almost $6.1 billion. And that's either through refinance or sale or other people taking them out. So the amount has been dramatic. With respect to the modified loans, keep in mind bridge loans are short-term loans of nature, and they have a lot of tests. So it's very normal to modify a loan in this kind of rate environment and give people a little bit more runway if they can bring more capital. There was a period of time when SOFR was sitting at 530.

When it dropped, it was a lot of relief for borrowers who were out and buying caps and extend their lifespan to give them more opportunity. So when we look at a modification of a loan, we take a look at whether the sponsor can bring more capital, whether the sponsor is doing a good job, and whether he has a capability to improve the performance of those assets.

And in the majority of those times, the super majority of times, we track their performance and they're doing extremely well. There are periods of time when they don't quite do what they're supposed to do, and they could result in additional delinquencies and putbacks. But on the whole, the strategy has been extremely effective in terms of improving the performance of those collaterals. Keep in mind that almost all our loans have recourse provisions with multiple sponsors.

It's not like people can just hand back the keys as an alternative. They are being put in a position where they have to bring capital to the table. There are many circumstances when we do take over ownership; we still have access to those personal financials and judgments as well. Our goal is always to improve the collateral, get it into a better position, specifically in markets that will experience a little bit of softness or delays in courts or things of that nature. For the most part, we are seeing tremendous improvement of the NOIs of the properties that we've modified.

Stephen Laws (Managing Director)

Appreciate the comments, Aaron. Paul, could you touch on the servicing escrow balances again? I think you said $80 million-$85 million, but I want to make sure I understand the new level we should think about and kind of what's driving the change in that, what the components are driving that reduction.

Paul Elenio (CFO)

Sure. So when I speak of earnings on our escrows and cash, it's two components. We lump it into one, but we can break it out. So we're sitting with $1.005 billion of escrow balances right now. And we had at year-end, we had about $500 million of cash between cash on hand and cash in the CLOs. So that's total at $2 billion. And right now, SOFR is at under 4.30%. We're earning slightly below that, probably about 4.15% is what we're earning currently.

So if you take that $2 billion, multiply it by 415, you're probably at $85 million, both in earnings on the cash that we have on our balance sheet and in the vehicles and on our escrows. Last year, we earned $120 million between earnings on escrows and earnings on cash for two reasons. One, SOFR was higher throughout the year. And remember, SOFR has been dropping. So the full effect of the drop in SOFR is not in the 2024 numbers. It will be in the 2025 numbers. And our cash has come down, obviously, as we've used some of our cash to run our business. So that's the two components that are driving 120 versus 85. The one thing I will say is that's a number, and that's math.

The one thing I'll say that will partially offset that is we are expecting, even though we're guiding to lower agency volume today, if rates stay where they are, we still believe our agency volume will eclipse our runoff in the agency business. So we will have some growth in the servicing portfolio that will partially offset that. But that's the math.

Stephen Laws (Managing Director)

Great.

Ivan Kaufman (CEO)

I think I want to add to that. I want to add to that slightly and reflect on a comment I've given you before. We experienced $3.4 billion runoff in 2024. That was at the certain interest rate environment that existed. In today's interest rate environment, we're forecasting if it remains at this 450 level to 475 or 480 level, the numbers will be more like $1.5.

However, if we go back to the interest rate environment that we had, what will rise up our numbers of runoff to around $3 billion? That's a material difference. And that material difference will result in a real rise in our agency business as well. So our outlook is really reflecting this elevated interest rate environment and how it impacts our business. And we would see a similar run rate as we did last year if rates go back to where they were.

And the real inflection point is really going to be the 5-year and the 10-year. If we see the 10-year and the 5-year get back around that 4% level, you'll see the same trend that we were seeing in the third quarter and fourth quarter that we're going to be talking about that we were experiencing our originations to run off.

Paul Elenio (CFO)

And Steve, one of the things I want to add is we were obviously very aware SOFR was dropping, and we knew it would have an impact on our escrows and our cash. But I think the real fundamental change over the last 90 days that was a little bit surprising to us, and we've talked about this on prior calls, we knew, and you could look in our filings that shows what the shock would be if rates go down or up on our cash and escrows and our portfolio.

But we thought there would be a pretty big offset in the fact that the 10-year would be low and we'd have significantly more origination volume on the agency side. That is not happening right now. It may change, as Ivan said, with the rates, but that's the big change.

So it's not a surprise to us that escrows and cash earnings go down with SOFR dropping. But we also thought we'd have a lower 10-year, which was where we were last quarter, and we'd have a much more robust origination platform to offset that.

Stephen Laws (Managing Director)

Yep. Yep. Appreciate the comments on that. And one last question regarding new dividend level being determined. I know the 30-35 guide for quarterly distributable earnings. Are you going to base the dividend on that, or will you look at kind of distributable earnings less PIK income and think about the dividend closer to a cash earnings level? How do we think about, or how will you and the board think about determining that new dividend level? Thank you.

Paul Elenio (CFO)

Yeah. So I think we will look at it as distributable with PIK. But again, we adjust as we go, right? Just to give an example, we've modified $4.7 billion of loans in the last two years, as Ivan said in his commentary. $2.4 billion of those have pay and accrual features. But we're only accruing on $1.7 billion of those. So there's another $500 million that we've decided not to accrue on. So we make decisions as we go along, and we adjust as we go along on whether we think we still should be accruing this or not based on value.

But the ones we are accruing, we feel really confident we're going to receive. So we have those in distributable earnings. But again, none of this has been decided yet with the board. We need to see what we've done today is give you, as of today, where we think the short-term guidance would be. We need to see where the first quarter comes in.

We need to see a couple of more months of this market. And by May, when we're on our first quarter call, we'll have three months in the books and another month of market data. And we will base our dividend on what we think it looks like going forward, not just for one quarter. So we'll look at it out 12 months, and we'll say, "Where do we think we get it to, and where are we comfortable?" Today, we're just a guide of a range of what we're seeing right now.

Ivan Kaufman (CEO)

I mean, just to give you a concept, we're sitting with $1 billion worth of loans in our pipeline that are interest rate sensitive. That can't close unless the 10-year drops to the 4 or 4 and a quarter range. So our guidance couldn't change to the upside with the change in interest rates.

But to be realistic, we don't want to mislead anybody. That's right. We want to take into consideration where this new elevated range may stay. There's huge volatility with the election, as we know. And it seems like we're in a range, whether it be a quarter, two quarters, three quarters, or four quarters. We're not sure. We'll adjust accordingly. But we think we're just responsible by laying out where this current interest rate environment is, which is different than where it's been, how that affects our business.

Stephen Laws (Managing Director)

That makes sense. Appreciate the comments this morning. Thank you.

Ivan Kaufman (CEO)

Thanks, Steve.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. And we will take our next question from Leon Cooperman with Omega Family Office. Please go ahead.

Leon Cooperman (Chairman and CEO)

Yeah. I missed most of this call because I had a conflict with another company. I jumped off their call. But unless there's something said differently, let me just say that I think that you guys have done a terrific job in managing through a difficult environment. And I personally am offended by the cost of dealing with these short sellers because I think you've been extremely transparent in your dealings with the investors.

No surprises here. I think you've done a very good job of navigating the environment. But let me ask you some questions rather than give you a shout-out. Where's your confidence in your book value, number one? And secondly, were you willing to use liquidity to buy back equity if it drops below stated book value? And what kind of return do you think you should earn on a recurring basis on your book in a normal environment?

Ivan Kaufman (CEO)

So relative to our book value, I'm glad you asked that question because we've had a tremendous success and track record in terms of taking distressed loans, bringing in new sponsors, and either having proper reserves or even taking back a little bit. So we're really comfortable with it.

When we modify our loans, which are always the loans which have the biggest highlight on them, we're forced by accounting for any major modification to do reappraisals. And based on those reappraisals, we're forced to take whatever reserves are necessary. We've been right on the mark. So I'm extraordinarily comfortable with the reserves that we've taken. But that track record speaks for itself. Paul, you want to address something? Yeah.

Paul Elenio (CFO)

I just think the book value, where it is today, Lee, if the market stays where it is today, we may have to take some more level of reserves on certain assets as we move through this higher-for-longer scenario, and it may ding book value a little bit, but we don't think it'll be material because we think we have provided the right level of reserves to date, so I think it could go down a little bit, but I don't think it goes down significantly.

Our track record has been that it has moved down significantly over the last two years in a very difficult market. As far as returns on equity, I think, yeah, it depends on where we set our dividend, but if you look at our range, on the low end of the range, we're probably 10% or 11%.

On the high end of the range, we're 12% return on equity, right, Ivan, given where it is. We did a 14% for 2024. I think we did similar for 2023. I think 10%-12% is realistic. I think there's upside on top of that if this market doesn't stay where it is longer than we're expecting, right?

Ivan Kaufman (CEO)

In terms of buying back stock and things of that nature, keep in mind that we have a very, very vibrant business, specifically on the SFR side, generating outside returns. We have to fund that business. Our construction lending business, we have to fund in addition. We're expected to do $1.5-$2 billion of bridge loans. We have a $5 billion worth of growth business, which is important to us. Surely, we'll have about $1.05 billion of runoff.

We'll use some capital to not run off. We have to be sensitive to keep our business growing. We've done an outstanding job of that. That's where our focus is going to be. Yield returns on the new business is in the mid-teens, which is very accretive to the business we're doing. We'll continue to focus on growing our business. Then, of course, managing through some of the legacy issues we have.

Leon Cooperman (Chairman and CEO)

What does it mean? If the stock got down to $10, $11, you would not buy it?

Ivan Kaufman (CEO)

It would be a strong possibility. I think what you have to do is, if you ask me if I would buy it, listen to what I say and watch what I do. I've always been very forward in terms of my own actions. I'm the largest shareholder of the REIT. And if there's an opportunity, if the stock drops, you will see me, and I'm sure plenty of management, and I'll be active in the spot and in the stock.

Leon Cooperman (Chairman and CEO)

All right. Well, good luck and congratulations. You've done a very good job in the short sellers over your head, the short sellers for better understanding the quality of the earnings and the quality of the management.

Ivan Kaufman (CEO)

Well, Leon, you said a lot more than I could usually say about the short sellers. But anyone who cares to take the time can look up the history and the problems of the short sellers and their founders. And they can look at the reports and see the issues they've had with the regulators and the courts around the world. And they can take their comments for what they're worth. You've done your research. I've done mine. And we'll make our investments accordingly.

Leon Cooperman (Chairman and CEO)

Gotcha. Well, good luck. Thank you very much. Appreciate your performance.

Ivan Kaufman (CEO)

Thanks, Lee.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. And we will take our next question from Rick Shane with J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.

Rick Shane (Analyst)

Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my questions this morning. Sort of two lines. First, a little housekeeping. Paul, you mentioned $500 million of non-accruing loans. Can we just go through in the 30- to 35-cent guidance? What's the drag from non-accruals? What's the contribution from PIK? And was the 3- to 5 cents that you cited for legal and regulatory quarterly? And can you help us sort of understand the context of that expense?

Paul Elenio (CFO)

Yeah. No. So the 3- to 5 cents is annually. We've run probably 2 cents to 2.5 cents already in 2024. We're expecting that number will just be the same number, but for a longer period of time because it really wasn't ramping up until the second quarter. So I would say that it's $0.03-$0.05 for the year on the cost between consulting, legal, administrative related to the short sellers if it continues.

That's our view. And then as far as the drag on earnings, I think we have $819 million of loans earning zero. What we've commented is that we do think in this environment we'll resolve some and we'll have some new ones. I think our track record has been that we still think, even in this rate environment, we'll be able to make progress in the 10% range. We did 13% this quarter, which we were impressed with.

But it'll also impact us on the REO side because I think the big temporary drag, Rick, is that, as Ivan alluded to, we already took back $100 million of loans in the first quarter. And we have $50 million on our books right now that aren't legacy. We have $100 million and to look at the numbers, we have $176 million in REO on our balance sheet. $45 million is a loan we flipped yesterday that I mentioned.

So now you're down to $131 million. $80 million of that are legacy assets we've had on our books before the crisis. And we're working through to try to dispose of them. So about $50 million to $55 million is due for this crisis. We took back another $100 million in January already. So we're up to $150 million. And as Ivan said, we're probably going to end up between $400 million and $500 million.

So the drag is that $400-$500 million has an NOI of about $7 million, but certainly not nearly what it would have been had it been paying a current interest rate. And then that's going to be temporary until we can reposition those assets. And then hopefully, we'll have a significant upside in the future. But that's probably 24 months out. So I think the drags from where we are now to where we're guiding to $0.30-$0.35 are these the components: reduced agency origination volumes, which obviously hit earnings, right?

The full effect of SOFR on your escrows and your cash balances offset slightly by servicing. The full effect of the delinquencies for a longer period of time than they've been outstanding and the drag in the REO assets. Will we have some positive offsets? Yes. We'll probably be largely more efficient through the securitization markets. And obviously, if rates change, we can pick up volumes and have a better performance on our assets. But those are kind of the components.

Rick Shane (Analyst)

And how much of the quarterly $0.30-$0.35 is from PIK?

Paul Elenio (CFO)

I don't have those numbers here, but I would say it's probably going to be similar to what we've had. It's probably $10 million-$15 million a quarter.

Rick Shane (Analyst)

Okay. Great. Thank you. And then pivoting, that was sort of the housekeeping stuff. In the quarter, you guys did almost $36 million of PEs and mezz, $97 million for the year. Are those part of, or is that, loans on outside investments opportunistically, or is that related to the structured portfolio where you're providing additional capital to existing borrowers? I'd love to relate that to some extent to the $130 million of capital contributed on the mods during the year?

Paul Elenio (CFO)

Yeah. So I think they're a little different. We may be combining concepts. So the $97 million that you referred to, if not all, the vast majority are not new investment opportunities. They're prep and MES we're putting behind agency loans that are taken off our balance sheet. So what happens? The guy has a balance sheet loan, and he wants to convert it to a fixed-rate loan. And depending where rates are, he'll come to the table. He'll be short capital because of the restrictions in the agencies on the debt cover and the LTV. And he'll bring to the table some money, and we'll put some money in the form of MES and PE behind him, which puts us in a better spot, right?

Because if we were 80% LTV on a bridge loan that's struggling, and now he has a 70% LTV loan on the agencies, he had a kick in 5%. We had a kick in 5%. Our PE and MES is behind 70, not behind 80, right? And then they usually get about a 14% return. And then there's a PIK on it because you have to give you have to have the current pay has to be a debt coverage like 110 through your MES and PE. So it's just a calculation of some of the ones we did this quarter were 9%, 10%, 11% pay, and the rest was PIK because we had good coverage through our PE.

Ivan Kaufman (CEO)

But I wanted to just add to that. That's been a normal course of business for us.

Rick Shane (Analyst)

I really appreciate the clarification on that. It is helpful. If I can just pivot to my very last question. During the year, you guys modded $4.1 billion. You took in $130 million of additional capital associated with that, which equates to about 3%. Can you put that 3% additional capital in the context of what you see the decline in property values? How does that sort of match up in terms of how much property is actually down?

Ivan Kaufman (CEO)

I don't understand your question.

Rick Shane (Analyst)

You had borrowers put in 3% in order to modify loans. And I think anecdotally, property values are down substantially more than that. I'm kind of curious how you think about how much additional capital a borrower needs to put in in order to maintain an LTV.

Ivan Kaufman (CEO)

Okay. Every case is different, Rick. And not all properties decline. Some improve performance. So I can't answer your question in the macro. We take each situation. We evaluate the capital income put in, how the assets perform, and how it can improve. So each one's different.

Rick Shane (Analyst)

Okay. Got it. Hey, guys. Thanks. I always appreciate you taking my questions. Thank you.

Ivan Kaufman (CEO)

Thanks, Rick.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. And we will take our next question from Jade Rahmani with KBW. Please go ahead.

Jade Rahmani (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)

Thank you very much. Can you discuss the lower cash balance in the structure of the business? What drove the quarter-on-quarter decline? And also, did you experience any margin calls? Sure. So we did not experience any margin calls. We have great relationships with our lenders. In fact, Ivan probably gives color that the market for commercial banks and securitizations is really, really strong right now. So we're not. Maybe it's a good time to comment on that.

Ivan Kaufman (CEO)

I'm sure you're aware that the CLO market and the bank lending market has improved dramatically. And those are some of the benefits that will offset some of these other factors. The CLO market, I'm sure you've seen deals are getting done in the 150-175 range as opposed to deals that two years ago couldn't get done. And then spreads were in the 275 range. So we've seen huge efficiencies on that side.

The commercial banks, our partners and relationships we've had, they've been more and more aggressive at higher advance rates and lower spreads. And these things will translate to better margins for us going forward. It's a lagging effect. It's all beginning over the last couple of months. And we should have some real positive impact on our income streams going forward, which will be an offset to some of these negative issues.

Paul Elenio (CFO)

As far as the cash balance dropping, it's math, right? We had put on, as you saw, $377 million of bridge in our new product that we love. We funded up our SFR business, which continues to grow. That requires cash. Obviously, the runoff has partially offset that. There's also timing on cash, right? When you are taking back an REO asset, you may have to buy it out of a vehicle, and then you re-lever it. There's always timing on why those cash numbers move. But we're sitting at about $450 million of cash and liquidity today. Obviously, we've used some of that cash to grow the platform.

Jade Rahmani (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)

Then just the agency business cash balance, when you break out the different segments, is that more akin to corporate cash? How fungible is that cash?

Paul Elenio (CFO)

Yeah. It's all fungible. The agency business obviously generates cash. It's capital light. And then it gets moved up to the; it's just the way you break out the segments. But when you look at a company like ours and you're managing cash, all of that cash is fungible. And all of that is corporate cash.

Jade Rahmani (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)

Lastly, just on the GSE side, have you gotten any putbacks? I know JLL owes one. Walker & Dunlop talked about what they've received. Be helpful to hear if you've received any loan putbacks.

Paul Elenio (CFO)

We have not. We have not had a putback or had a buyback loan.

Jade Rahmani (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)

Thanks a lot.

Paul Elenio (CFO)

Thanks.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. And we will take our next question from Kristen Love with Piper Sandler. Please go ahead.

Crispin Love (Director)

Thanks. Good morning, everyone. First, you've had $307 million plus of bridge origination in the fourth quarter, highest level in a long time, in line with your guys from last quarter. Can you speak to expectations going forward in bridge as rates have backed up since September? And then do you have an outlook for agency originations for the first quarter? Thanks.

Ivan Kaufman (CEO)

Yeah. The $370 million of bridge was a good quarter, as I mentioned in my comments. We're expecting to move about $1.5-$2 billion for the year. And we expect it to move fairly evenly over the year. I think if short-term rates drop, we can see that number going up considerably. But that's the level that we think in this rate environment.

Paul Elenio (CFO)

And as far as your second part of your question, Kristen, yeah, the reason we've given a $0.30-$0.35 kind of guidance per quarter is it won't be linear, right? Certainly, the first quarter or two, maybe on the lower end of that range, and then it will grow from there. And a lot has to do with the fact that the agency business, given where rates are, is off to a slow start. So we're expecting a much lower first quarter in the agencies.

And then we expect it to build from there for two reasons. One, historically, the first quarter is usually a slower quarter because a lot of people close all their loans at the end of the year. And two, the backup of rates has put some people on the sidelines. We've got a big pipeline.

We've got a lot of loans ready to go. It's just a matter of convincing borrowers to transact at these levels, and a lot of them are still patiently waiting to see where the 10-year goes, so we are expecting the numbers to be much lighter in the first quarter and then hopefully grow from there.

Ivan Kaufman (CEO)

I mean, what you did see is a strong fourth quarter, not only with Arbor but all agency lenders and the agencies themselves, and if you look at the comments I had, we would have even done more when the agencies were backed up, and when rates jumped, we have this huge pipeline sitting on the side, so the first quarter is going to be a little light because so much was done in the fourth quarter.

Where the rates are today, there's just a ton sitting on the side of the balance sheet on the pipeline. If you do see a meaningful move in the 10-year down, you'll see that number increase substantially. Yeah. It wouldn't be surprising if the agency business for the quarter was $600 million-$800 million. It all depends on what's going to happen.

Crispin Love (Director)

Great. Thank you. I appreciate all the color there. Then just last one for me. Can you provide any update on the DOJ-SEC investigations from last year? You mentioned legal fees related to short-seller reports and your prepared remarks. Does that also include legal fees related to these investigations as well?

Ivan Kaufman (CEO)

Well, as you know, we don't comment on regulatory inquiries. With respect to the elevated costs, we, as you know, go through extended orders and reorders. We have to step up the ordering process, the expense with respect to ordering, our compliance, and all those kind of factors, so we are working extremely hard. Our auditors are doing their double and triple and quadruple work. We've had to step up our compliance and all our procedures and processes, so that's what we estimate the costs are going to be for work in this environment.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. And it appears that we have reached our allotted time for questions. I will now turn the program back to Ivan Kaufman for any additional or closing remarks.

Ivan Kaufman (CEO)

Okay, well, thank you, everybody, for your time. 2024. We expect next year to be a little different given this current rate environment. We appreciate your participation in the call, and hopefully, rates will go in our favor, and things will look a little bit more favorable. However, even with this adjusted interest rate environment, we still expect our performance to be extremely strong and bountiful in the space. Thank you, everybody, and have a great day.