Name: Absci Corp Q3 2025 Earnings Call
Start: 2025-11-12T21:30:00.000Z

Executive Summary

Q3 results were mixed: partner program revenue fell to $0.38M (–78% YoY, –36% QoQ) and missed S&P Global consensus ($1.58M), while EPS of $(0.20) was modestly better than consensus of $(0.205) . Revenue estimate: $1.5799M*; EPS estimate: $(0.2052)*. Actual revenue: $0.378M; actual EPS: $(0.20) .
Strategic pivot: ABS-201 accelerated (AGA Ph1/2a to start December 2025) and expanded (new endometriosis indication; Ph2 to start 4Q26). ABS-101 to be partnered; no internal later-stage development after Phase 1 completion .
Liquidity improved: cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities rose to $152.5M (from $117.5M in Q2), with runway into 1H 2028 maintained .
Near-term catalysts: ABS-201 KOL seminar (Dec 11), ABS-201 AGA first dosing in December, and potential partnerships “by year-end” including with large pharma .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

ABS-201 acceleration and expansion: Company pulled forward AGA Ph1/2a start to Dec 2025 and added endometriosis with Ph2 in 4Q26. CEO: “pivotal inflection point… sharpen our focus on ABS-201… two high‑value indications” .
ABS-101 safety/PK read-in: Interim Phase 1 showed extended half-life vs first‑gen TL1A competitors with no serious adverse events; pursuing partnership/out‑licensing consistent with strategy .
Balance sheet/runway: Cash and securities increased to $152.5M; runway into 1H 2028, aided by prior capital raises and anticipated non‑dilutive partnership inflows .

Revenue miss and decline: Q3 revenue $0.38M vs S&P consensus $1.58M* (–78% YoY, –36% QoQ), highlighting lumpy/limited partner revenue recognition .
ABS-101 competitiveness: Management acknowledged Phase 1 half‑life fell short of next‑gen TL1A programs; consequently will not pursue internal later-stage trials, focusing instead on partnering .
Continued operating losses: Net loss widened YoY to $(28.7)M with R&D investment elevated for pipeline execution .

Metric	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Partner Program Revenue ($USD)	$1.179M	$0.593M	$0.378M
Net Loss ($USD)	$(26.346)M	$(30.569)M	$(28.706)M
Diluted EPS ($USD)	$(0.21)	$(0.24)	$(0.20)
R&D Expense ($USD)	$16.364M	$20.458M	$19.249M
SG&A Expense ($USD)	$9.472M	$8.528M	$8.441M
Cash, Cash Equivalents & Marketable Securities (period-end)	$134.0M	$117.5M	$152.5M

YoY snapshot (Q3 2025 vs Q3 2024):

Versus S&P Global consensus:

Metric	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Revenue Actual ($USD)	$1,179,000	$593,000	$378,000
Revenue Consensus Mean ($USD)	$1,312,500*	$1,214,290*	$1,579,880*
EPS Actual ($USD)	$(0.21)	$(0.24)	$(0.20)
Primary EPS Consensus Mean ($USD)	$(0.2233)*	$(0.2086)*	$(0.2052)*

Note: *Values retrieved from S&P Global.

KPIs (operational/financial):

Cash runway: Into 1H 2028 .
Upcoming ABS-201 milestones: AGA Ph1/2a start Dec 2025; endometriosis Ph2 start 4Q26; interim readouts 2H 2026 (AGA) and 2H 2027 (Endo) .
Partnering outlook: “anticipate signing one or more partnerships, including with a Large Pharma company, by year-end” .

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
ABS-201 (AGA) trial start	Start of Ph1/2a	Early 2026 (Q2 deck)	December 2025	Raised/Accelerated
ABS-201 (Endometriosis)	Start of Ph2	Under evaluation only (Q2 call)	Initiate Ph2 in 4Q26; interim PoC 2H 2027	New guidance (added indication)
ABS-101 (TL1A)	Post-Ph1 plan	Phase 1b/2a start 1H26 (Q2 slides)	No internal later-stage trials; seek partner; complete Ph1 in Q1’26	Lowered/Partnering pivot
Partnerships	2025	Anticipate ≥1 large pharma deal in 2025	Anticipate ≥1 by year-end	Maintained (timing specified)
Cash runway	Multi-year	Into 1H 2028 (Q2)	Into 1H 2028 (Q3)	Maintained

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q1–Q2)	Current Period (Q3)	Trend
ABS-201 AGA timing	Ph1/2a anticipated early 2026	Start pulled up to Dec 2025; interim 2H 2026	Accelerating
ABS-201 Endometriosis	Optionality discussed (Q2)	Added as second lead indication; Ph2 in 4Q26; interim 2H 2027	New/expanding
ABS-101 strategy	Advancing; potential quarterly dosing; strong partner interest	Safety good, but half‑life short vs next‑gen; shift to out-licensing; no internal Ph1b/2a	Rationalization/partnering
Partnerships	Expect ≥1 large pharma deal in 2025	Still expect ≥1 large pharma deal by year-end	Maintained
Balance sheet/runway	Raised ~$64M in July; runway to 1H 2028	Cash/securities up to $152.5M; runway to 1H 2028	Strengthened
AI platform	Validating on hard targets; Almirall expansion, Caltech HIV	Reinforced as enabler of pipeline and partnering	Ongoing momentum

“This quarter marks a pivotal inflection point for Absci as we sharpen our focus on ABS-201… advancing this program in two high-value indications” — Sean McClain, CEO .
“We will seek a partner for ABS-101 and no longer pursue additional internal clinical development for this asset following the completion of the phase I clinical trial.” — Sean McClain .
“We continue to anticipate signing one or more drug creation partnerships, including with a large pharma company, by year-end.” — Zach Jonasson, CFO/CBO .
“Cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities… $152.5M… sufficient to fund operations into the first half of 2028.” — Company update .

TL1A (ABS-101) read-through: Half‑life exceeded first‑gen but not second‑gen competitors; safety clean; focus shifts to partnering and first‑in‑class indications where tissue distribution may help efficacy .
Endometriosis design: Company aims to address pain and potentially disease modification; will ensure rigorous entry criteria and adequate powering; sub‑Q dosing planned in Ph2 .
ABS-201 AGA recruitment/efficacy timing: Confident in site activation (Australia); 13‑week interim efficacy readout targeted for early 2H 2026, with additional 20–24 week endpoints .
Indication scope: PRLR biology viewed as broadly relevant across endometriosis patients; non‑hormonal safety profile emphasized by management .

Q3 2025: Revenue $0.378M vs S&P consensus $1.5799M* (miss); EPS $(0.20) vs $(0.2052)* (slight beat) .
Given lumpy partner revenue and increased pipeline focus, Street revenue models may need to reset lower near-term; EPS cadence hinges on R&D pace and partnering milestones .

Note: *Values retrieved from S&P Global.

ABS-201 is now the clear value driver with two near-term PoC shots (AGA 2H26; Endo 2H27); the trial acceleration and indication expansion are central to the bull case .
The ABS-101 pivot reduces internal burn on TL1A development; upside remains via partnering optionality and potential first‑in‑class indications .
Near-term stock catalysts: ABS-201 KOL event (Dec 11), AGA Ph1/2a initiation in December, potential large‑pharma partnership(s) by year-end .
Revenue volatility will persist; focus should remain on cash runway (into 1H 2028) and non‑dilutive deal progress to extend runway and de‑risk pipeline .
Watch competitive TL1A readouts and PRLR class data (e.g., HMI‑115) for cross‑program read‑throughs; management believes ABS‑201 has PK/formulation advantages that could translate to patient convenience and efficacy .
Execution risks are chiefly clinical (ABS‑201 PoC) and partnering timing; the plan to leverage AGA Ph1/2a safety for Endo Ph2 is capital-efficient and accelerates timelines .