Sign in
AP

ACADIA PHARMACEUTICALS INC (ACAD)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024 delivered total revenues of $259.6M, with record quarterly sales from both brands: NUPLAZID $162.9M (+13% YoY) and DAYBUE $96.7M (+11% YoY) .
  • Diluted EPS was $0.86, boosted by a one-time $146.5M gain from the sale of a Priority Review Voucher; net income reached $143.7M and operating income $153.5M, inflating margins versus prior quarters .
  • 2025 guidance targets $1.03–$1.095B in U.S. revenues; NUPLAZID $650–$690M and DAYBUE $380–$405M, with higher SG&A to support DTC and field expansion and R&D $310–$330M .
  • Near-term dynamics: management expects a sequential decline in DAYBUE net sales in Q1 2025 due to Q4 pull-forward (~$3.5M), typical seasonality, and Medicare Part D redesign accrual impacts; NUP gross-to-net is expected to improve modestly in 2025 via the small manufacturer phase-in .
  • Potential stock catalysts: >$1B revenue guide, EU MAA submission for trofinetide (approval expected Q1 2026), first ex-U.S. revenues in 2025 via managed access, and pipeline milestones (ACP-101, ACP-204, ACP-711) plus R&D Day in June .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Record quarterly revenues for both brands; NUPLAZID grew 13% YoY to $162.9M and DAYBUE 11% YoY to $96.7M, reflecting healthy volume and pricing dynamics .
  • Management confidence and strategic clarity: “We closed 2024 on a strong note...well-positioned for continued growth in 2025,” with plans to expand DAYBUE’s field force and EU team and continue consumer activation for NUPLAZID .
  • Strengthened balance sheet and 2025 visibility: cash increased to $756.0M; 2025 guidance above $1B with detailed GtN and opex ranges; clarity on Neuren payments and IRA impacts .

What Went Wrong

  • Q1 2025 set-up: DAYBUE net sales expected to decline sequentially tied to Q4 pull-forward (~$3.5M), seasonality, and lower net price per bottle due to Part D redesign accruals .
  • Elevated SG&A reflects heavier spend for DTC, DAYBUE support and ex-U.S. build-out; SG&A rose to $130.1M in Q4 and $488.4M for FY 2024, up from $111.5M and $406.6M in 2023 .
  • Reported Q4 margins and EPS benefitted from a one-time PRV gain ($146.5M), limiting direct comparability; operating income and net income margins were temporarily inflated .

Financial Results

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Total Revenues ($USD Millions)$241.963 $250.401 $259.602
Diluted EPS ($USD)$0.20 $0.20 $0.86
Net Income ($USD Millions)$33.389 $32.765 $143.742
Net Income Margin %13.8% 13.1% 55.4%
Income from Operations ($USD Millions)$30.437 $31.644 $153.503
EBIT Margin %12.6% 12.6% 59.1%
Consensus Revenue ($USD Millions)N/A — unavailable via S&P GlobalN/A — unavailable via S&P GlobalN/A — unavailable via S&P Global
Consensus EPS ($USD)N/A — unavailable via S&P GlobalN/A — unavailable via S&P GlobalN/A — unavailable via S&P Global

Segment net product sales

SegmentQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
NUPLAZID ($USD Millions)$157.4 $159.2 $162.9
DAYBUE ($USD Millions)$84.6 $91.2 $96.7
Q4 YoY Growth (NUPLAZID)+13% ——
Q4 YoY Growth (DAYBUE)+11% ——

KPIs

KPIQ3 2024Q4 2024
DAYBUE unique patients receiving paid shipments923 920
DAYBUE % of patients ≥12 months on therapyN/A62%
DAYBUE discontinuations (q/q improvement)N/A+15% improvement q/q
DAYBUE HCP prescribers (cumulative)~800 ~830
NUPLAZID market share among atypical antipsychotics for PDPN/A~25% (up from ~20%)
NUPLAZID Gross-to-Net (quarter)24.9% 23.2%
DAYBUE Gross-to-Net (full-year)N/A18.8%

Notes:

  • Q4 margins and EPS were positively impacted by the $146.5M PRV gain recorded in operating expenses as a negative line item (gain on sale of non-financial asset) .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Total Revenues (U.S. only)FY 2025N/A$1.03–$1.095B New
NUPLAZID net product salesFY 2025N/A$650–$690M New
DAYBUE net product sales (U.S.)FY 2025N/A$380–$405M New
R&D expenseFY 2025N/A$310–$330M New
SG&A expenseFY 2025N/A$535–$565M New
NUPLAZID Gross-to-NetFY 2025N/A22.5%–25.5% New
DAYBUE Gross-to-NetFY 2025N/A21.5%–24.5% New
DAYBUE sequential sales outlookQ1 2025N/ASequential decline expected; ~$3.5M Q4 pull-forward, seasonality, net price decline due to Part D accruals New directional

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 2024, Q3 2024)Current Period (Q4 2024)Trend
Consumer activation/DTC (NUPLAZID)Launched targeted unbranded and branded DTC; awareness of hallucinations/delusions fell to ~8% and NUP awareness ~15%; impact expected mainly in 2025 Early benefits in Q4 (traffic to disease awareness and NUP sites); plan continued DTC to drive share and volume in 2025 Building momentum
DAYBUE patient journey, persistency, GI managementDiscontinuations down 46% q/q in Q2; ~30% of diagnosed patients initiated; real-world caregiver data (LOTUS) used to educate; 9-month persistency ~58% 62% of current patients ≥12 months on therapy; ~15% q/q improvement in discontinuations; 70–75% dosing alignment; ~830 prescribers; plan 30% field force expansion Improving persistency; broader prescriber base
Ex-U.S. expansion (DAYBUE)Health Canada approval; EU submission targeted for early 2025; Japan PMDA discussions EU MAA submitted; EU approval anticipated Q1 2026; first Canadian sales expected Q3 2025; managed access programs in select EU markets Execution underway
Medicare Part D redesignExpected ~300 bps GtN benefit for NUP in 2025 due to small manufacturer phase-in NUP GtN 22.5%–25.5% FY25; DAYBUE GtN 21.5%–24.5% with higher accruals; Q1 DAYBUE net price headwind Mixed: NUP tailwind, DAYBUE headwind
Pipeline: ACP-101 (PWS), ACP-204 (ADP), ACP-711 (ET)PWS Phase 3 enrolling; ACP-204 Phase II/III with EU master protocol adjustments; PRV sale announced ACP-101: fully enrolled by Q4 2025; topline 1H 2026; ACP-204: Phase II enroll by Q1 2026; topline mid-2026; plan Phase II in LBDP Q3 2025; ACP-711 Phase II in 2026 Clear timelines
Financial strengthCash $500.9M (Q2) then $565.3M (Q3); PRV sale planned/closed [$150M] Cash $756.0M at YE; 2025 guide >$1B; Neuren payments ~$98.8M (Q1 2025) Strengthened

Management Commentary

  • CEO: “We closed 2024 on a strong note…well-positioned for continued growth in 2025,” highlighting consumer activation for NUPLAZID, expanding DAYBUE field force, and building EU commercial team; later-stage pipeline advancing toward 2026 readouts .
  • CFO: 2025 revenue guidance $1.03–$1.095B; DAYBUE U.S. $380–$405M (volume growth mainly 2H; GtN 21.5%–24.5%); NUPLAZID $650–$690M (GtN 22.5%–25.5%); Q1 DAYBUE sequential decline due to pull-forward, seasonality, and net price accruals; Neuren cash payments ~$98.8M in Q1 .
  • CCO: NUPLAZID market share ~25% among atypical antipsychotics (up from ~20%); DTC and real-world evidence to drive continued share gains; DAYBUE persistency strong with ~50% at 12 months and increased dose alignment (toward 70–75%) .

Q&A Highlights

  • DAYBUE near-term dynamics: management expects stable active patient base in Q1 but sequential revenue decline due to Q4 pull-forward (~$3.5M), seasonality, and net price headwinds from Part D redesign .
  • Gross-to-net trajectories: DAYBUE expected to remain in low-20% range with IRA impacts; NUPLAZID benefits from small manufacturer phase-in but GtN may inch up over time as the phase-in unwinds .
  • EU and Canada: confidence in EU reimbursement aided by LOTUS data and KOL engagement; first Canadian revenues targeted in Q3 2025 .
  • Pipeline breadth: ACP-204 expansion to LBDP (Phase II in Q3 2025); ACP-711 differentiated α3-selectivity vs prior GABA programs (e.g., SAGE-324) .
  • Medicare redesign uncertainty widened NUPLAZID guidance range, balancing patient out-of-pocket tailwinds vs payer cost headwinds .

Estimates Context

  • Wall Street consensus comparisons (EPS and revenue) for Q4 2024 and the prior two quarters were unavailable via S&P Global due to retrieval limits at the time of analysis. We will update estimate comparisons when S&P Global data access is available.
  • Where estimates are not shown, interpret beats/misses cautiously; the company did not provide explicit comparisons to consensus on the call or in the press release .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Q4 quality of revenue was strong across both brands, but headline margins and EPS were temporarily boosted by the $146.5M PRV gain; underlying profitability improved versus prior quarters but not to the magnitude of reported figures .
  • 2025 guide >$1B U.S. revenues anchors the bull case: NUPLAZID share gains via DTC and RWE; DAYBUE volume growth weighted to 2H; expanded field force and EU build-out support trajectory .
  • Near-term trading setup: management explicitly flagged a Q1 2025 sequential decline for DAYBUE due to seasonality and IRA accruals—watch for Q2 inflection and sequential improvements thereafter per plan .
  • Gross-to-net mechanics matter: NUPLAZID benefits from small manufacturer phase-in in 2025; DAYBUE sees higher GtN (21.5%–24.5%) as IRA redesign accruals step up—model mixes carefully .
  • Ex-U.S. optionality emerging: EU MAA submitted (approval targeted Q1 2026), first managed access revenues in Europe and initial Canadian revenues targeted for 2025 .
  • Pipeline milestones provide medium-term catalysts: ACP-101 (PWS) fully enrolled by Q4 2025 with topline 1H 2026; ACP-204 (ADP) topline mid-2026 and LBDP Phase II initiation in Q3 2025; ACP-711 Phase II in 2026 .
  • Balance sheet supports execution: YE cash $756.0M; planned Neuren payments (~$98.8M) and IRA-related cash timing noted; operating profitability expected to continue .

Additional context from prior quarters and press releases:

  • Q3 2024: total revenues $250.4M; NUPLAZID $159.2M (+10% YoY); DAYBUE $91.2M (+36% YoY); PRV sale agreement announced and later closed in December for $150M .
  • Q2 2024: total net product sales $242.0M; NUPLAZID $157.4M (+11% YoY); DAYBUE $84.6M; upward NUPLAZID guidance and downward DAYBUE guidance set tone for H2 focus on patient journey and GI management .
  • Corporate: inclusion in S&P SmallCap 600 announced Dec 30, 2024; exclusive license agreement for ACP-711 signed Nov 2024 [1: press-release] .

Citations: All figures and statements are sourced from ACAD’s Q4 2024 8-K and press release , Q4 earnings call transcript –, prior quarter filings/transcripts , and related press releases – .