Executive Summary

Revenue grew 9.1% YoY to $329.7M and slightly beat S&P consensus ($328.0M), while diluted EPS of $0.16 missed the $0.214 consensus; Adjusted EBITDA rose 11.5% YoY to $51.2M, with margin roughly stable. (consensus marked with asterisk below; Values retrieved from S&P Global)*
Sequentially, revenue declined from a record Q2 ($335.9M) as seasonality normalizes; however, Illinois and Montana remained solid, and newer markets (Louisiana, Fairmount Park) continued to ramp.
Balance sheet flexibility improved: closed a new $900M credit facility (5-year term loan + revolver) extending maturities to 2030 and reducing cost of capital; ended Q3 with $290.2M cash and ~ $305M net debt.
Capital returns and execution: repurchased 0.6M shares for ~$6.8M in Q3 (2.2M YTD) and delivered first full quarter of Fairmount Park Casino & Racing operations, with sequential monthly gaming revenue growth.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

YoY growth and profitability: Revenue +9.1% to $329.7M; Adjusted EBITDA +11.5% to $51.2M on disciplined cost control and scale benefits.
Core and developing market execution: Illinois revenue $239.0M (+7% YoY) with portfolio optimization; Nebraska and Georgia delivered strong double-digit growth; Louisiana ramping post Toucan acquisition.
Strengthened capital structure: $900M senior secured facility (5-year term loan + $300M revolver) extended maturities to 2030 and lowered cost of capital.

Management quotes:

“Accel delivered strong results… highlighted by 9.1% revenue growth and an 11.5% increase in Adjusted EBITDA.”
“This refinancing strengthens our balance sheet, enhances liquidity, and lowers our cost of capital while extending maturities to 2030.”
“We are highly encouraged by sequential monthly revenue growth [at Fairmount Park]…as we refine the gaming experience and expand brand awareness.”

What Went Wrong

EPS miss vs consensus: diluted EPS $0.16 below $0.214 consensus, partly amid non-operating items (e.g., $1.1M loss on debt extinguishment; fair value earnout change). *
Nevada still a drag YoY due to loss of a key customer in 2024; revenue decline continued, though operations are being optimized and new locations added.
Sequential step-down from record Q2 revenue ($335.9M) as seasonal normalization set in.

Financial Results

Quarterly trends and margins

Metric	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Revenue ($M)	$323.9	$335.9	$329.7
Diluted EPS ($)	$0.17	$0.08	$0.16
Operating Income ($M)	$26.0	$26.9	$25.4
Net Income ($M)	$14.6	$7.3	$13.3
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)	$49.5	$53.2	$51.2
Adjusted EBITDA Margin %	15.3% (49.5/323.9)	15.8% (53.2/335.9)	15.5% (51.2/329.7)
Operating Margin %	8.0% (26.0/323.9)	8.0% (26.9/335.9)	7.7% (25.4/329.7)
Net Income Margin %	4.5% (14.6/323.9)	2.2% (7.3/335.9)	4.0% (13.3/329.7)

Note: Margins shown are calculated from cited revenue and profit figures.

Q3 2025 actual vs S&P Global consensus

Metric	Consensus	Actual
Revenue ($M)	$328.0*	$329.7
Primary EPS ($)	$0.214*	$0.16

Values marked with an asterisk (*) retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment breakdown (Net revenues by state)

State	Q3 2025 ($M)	Q3 2024 ($M)
Illinois	$239.0	$223.3
Montana	$40.5	$39.6
Nevada	$26.2	$28.4
Louisiana	$9.5	—
Nebraska	$8.5	$6.5
Georgia	$5.1	$3.4
Other	$0.9	$0.9
Total	$329.7	$302.2

KPIs (selected)

KPI	Q3 2025	Q3 2024
Total locations	4,451	4,289
Total gaming terminals	27,714	26,509
IL hold-per-day ($)	876	839
MT hold-per-day ($)	621	613
NV hold-per-day ($)	734	802
LA hold-per-day ($)	977	—

Balance sheet/returns:

Cash and cash equivalents: $290.2M; Net debt: ~$305.2M (as defined) at 9/30/25.
Q3 buybacks: ~0.6M shares for ~$6.8M.

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Capital Expenditures	FY 2025	$75–$80M (affirmed in prior quarters)	$75–$80M (affirmed in Q3)	Maintained

Notes:

No quantitative revenue/EPS/margin guidance provided; management discussed ongoing TITO rollout timing and Fairmount ramp.

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q1–Q2 2025)	Current Period (Q3 2025)	Trend
Illinois optimization & TITO	IL pruning/optimization continues; TITO in early rollout (late July), no material impact expected in Q3.	TITO utilization mid-single-digit and rising; noticeable impact expected into 2Q26; optimization continues to lift per-machine metrics.	Positive operational efficiency trajectory
Developing markets (NE, GA, NV)	NE/GA strong growth; NV down due to 2024 customer loss; optimization underway.	NE/GA led developing portfolio growth; NV still down YoY but new wins (e.g., Fuel Brothers) and footprint expansion underway.	Mixed: strength in NE/GA; NV improving mix
New markets (LA, Fairmount Park)	LA acquisition integration; Fairmount opened April, early ramp; significant 2026 contribution expected.	LA ~670 terminals/~100 locations; pipeline of bolt-ons; Fairmount monthly GGR increasing; phase 2 options under review.	Ramping with 2026 upside
Capital structure	Normal course cash/credit facility refresh anticipated.	New $900M facility (term + revolver) extends maturities to 2030, lowers cost of capital.	Improved flexibility
M&A landscape	Focus on bolt-ons; disciplined; not over-levering.	Sellers recognizing lower multiples; priority for bolt-ons in LA; IL also active.	Pipeline constructive
Tariffs/macro	Tariff impacts minimal on FY25 capex; steel costs noted for Fairmount phase 2 planning.	No new macro headwinds highlighted; focus on execution and market expansion.	Stable

Management Commentary

CEO: “In the Illinois and Montana markets… we continue to build on our leading positions and leverage our scale to drive efficiencies, optimize our location mix, and expand margins.”
CFO: “We are affirming our full-year 2025 CapEx forecast of $75–$80 million.”
President of Gaming: “Gross gaming revenue adjusted is increasing every month [at Fairmount]… good growth… still reviewing several different options for the permanent.”
CEO on M&A: “People are… recognizing that there has been a reduction in the multiples that the companies transact at…”

Q&A Highlights

Illinois strategy and TITO: Continued route optimization with stable-to-slightly-growing machine counts and rising revenue per machine; TITO utilization mid-single-digit and expected to move into double digits by next update; more noticeable impact by 2Q26.
Capital allocation: Under-levered vs peers; will balance buybacks, debt paydown, and M&A on a case-by-case ROI basis.
M&A pipeline: Sellers adjusting pricing expectations; priority on bolt-ons in Louisiana; Illinois also offers targets.
Nevada update: Adding locations (e.g., Fuel Brothers) and winning more business; expect growth to continue.
Market expansion: Monitoring Pennsylvania, Missouri, North Carolina, Virginia for potential VGT expansion; favorable legislative tweaks seen in GA, LA, NE.

Estimates Context

Q3 revenue: $329.7M vs S&P consensus $328.0M (beat). Q3 diluted EPS: $0.16 vs S&P consensus $0.214 (miss). *
Target price consensus remained ~$16.00 through the last three quarters.*
Note: Street “EBITDA” definitions may differ from company “Adjusted EBITDA”; company reported Adjusted EBITDA of $51.2M. Values marked with an asterisk (*) retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Slight top-line beat but EPS miss: solid underlying revenue with non-operating items (e.g., debt extinguishment, fair value mark) affecting EPS; focus on sustainable EBITDA and FCF trajectory.
Capital structure reset (2030 maturities) and strong liquidity ($290M cash) support bolt-on M&A and buybacks without stressing leverage (~$305M net debt).
Operating levers: IL optimization and TITO rollout should support mix and cost efficiencies into 2026; developing markets (NE/GA) remain growth engines; NV stabilization underway.
New assets ramp: Louisiana routes and Fairmount Park racino are ramping with sequential growth; phase 2 planning may add 2026+ contribution.
Watch legislative catalysts (GA/LA/NE tweaks, potential PA/MO/NC/VA openings) and bolt-on M&A in LA/IL as incremental growth drivers.
Near-term trading lens: revenue resilience and cap-structure positive vs EPS miss; next catalyst is TITO adoption progress and holiday/seasonal trends into Q4, plus any Fairmount phase 2 updates.

Additional detail and sources:

Q3 press release (financials, KPIs, non-GAAP reconciliations).
Q3 call transcript (strategy, guidance color, Q&A).
Q2 press release/call (trend context).
Q1 press release/call (trend context).
New $900M credit facility 8-K.
CFO appointment 8-K.