Axcelis - Earnings Call - Q1 2020
May 6, 2020
Transcript
Speaker 0
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Exelis Technologies Call to discuss the Company's Results for the 2020. My name is Julie, and I will be your coordinator for today. At this time, all participants are in listen only mode. We will be facilitating a question and answer session towards the end of this conference. I would now like to turn the presentation over to your host for today's call, Mary Puma, President and CEO of Axcelis Technologies.
Please proceed, ma'am.
Speaker 1
Thank you, Julie. With me today is Kevin Brewer, Executive Vice President and CFO and Doug Lawson, Executive Vice President of Corporate Marketing and Strategy. We are all participating in this call remotely, so I would like to apologize in advance for any technical difficulties. If you have not seen a copy of our press release issued last night, it is available on our website. Playback service will also be available on our website as described in our press release.
Please note that comments made today about our expectations for future revenues, profits and other results are forward looking statements under the SEC's Safe Harbor provision. These forward looking statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to the risks inherent in our business. These risks described in detail in our Form 10 ks annual report and other SEC filings, which we urge you to review. Our actual results may differ materially from our current expectations. We do not assume any obligation to update these forward looking statements.
I hope you and your families are healthy during this difficult period. At Axcelis, we are carefully managing through this unprecedented global situation, but I would like to emphasize that we remain laser focused on the strategic objectives we outlined at our Investor Day in September. During the first quarter, we achieved two key milestones along the path to market leadership in ion implantation and to our long term business models. First, we received our first Purion order from Japan. Second, we closed the first Purion Dragon evaluation and received a follow on order.
The dedication of our employees has made these significant accomplishments possible, and our top priority is ensuring their health and safety while continuing to serve our customers. I would personally like to give a heartfelt thank you to our extraordinary employees in the factory, global field locations and those at home in The U. S. And around the world who are working diligently to meet our customer commitments. I also want to thank our suppliers and customers for their support as we strive to meet the continuing high level of customer interest in our Purion products.
Our first quarter financial performance was very strong. Revenue for the first quarter was $119,000,000 Earnings per share of $0.33 was well above guidance and consensus. During the first quarter, memory accounted for 52% of our shipments, 31% DRAM and 21 NAND. Mature foundrylogic customers accounted for the remaining 48%. The geographic mix of our shipment our system shipments in the first quarter was China 38%, Korea 34%, Taiwan 20% and The U.
S. And Europe 8%. While the COVID-nineteen pandemic has generated uncertainty and new challenges for 2020, it is important to understand that the semiconductor industry is critical in today's world and remains fundamentally strong. Near term, we will be required to manage our business on a day to day basis relative to uncontrollable pandemic driven hurdles associated with global government policies, the impact on world economies and the reactions of our customers and suppliers. The industry is just exiting a down cycle, a period of lower capacity investment.
As a result, we can still expect to see investment in both technology and capacity for critical market segments. Axcelis has done significant work to understand our customers' market segments and to develop products that provide a competitive advantage. We expect to see the individual market segments react differently to COVID-nineteen challenges. Currently, semiconductor products required for working from home and sheltering in place are in high demand. This includes products for PCs, video streaming and communications.
At the same time, demand for products related to automotive and aviation, for example, have slowed. Our knowledge and expertise allow us to work closely with our customers across these market segments, even during this difficult time to provide them with the best Ion implant solutions for their specific manufacturing challenges. We are well positioned as a result of investment in new Purion products during the down cycle and by the broad and highly diverse Purion customer base we have developed over the last several years. In the first quarter, we closed three evaluations, all for new memory applications. One of these evaluations was for the first Purion Dragon at a NAND customer.
This is our newest and most technologically advanced high current implanter. We also received the first Purion Dragon follow on order and shipped that tool in the first quarter
Speaker 0
as well. The interest level is also very high for two of
Speaker 1
our other new Purion systems, the Purion XE Max, a high energy tool designed for the most advanced image sensor applications and for the Purion Purion H200, which is focused on the power device market. We also announced our first Purion order in Japan, a Purion XE for a power device customer. It is easy during this difficult time to forget that the industry is beginning what will likely be an extended growth cycle driven by the new communications capability of five gs technology. We still believe the five gs infrastructure build has begun and will accelerate in 2020 and into 2021. As the infrastructure expands, new five gs capable phones and other devices will drive a strong memory cycle beginning in 2021.
Following this and beginning in 2022, there will be another cycle of industrial IoT applications even bigger than the last, which will drive strong growth in the mature process technology segment. One thing that emerges very clearly from this pandemic is that communication requirements and the technology to support them are more critical than ever and that Axcelis is extremely well positioned for strong growth during the upcoming five gs driven cycle. Now I'd like to turn it over to Kevin to discuss our financials and some operational details.
Speaker 2
Thank you, Mary, and good morning. Before I provide an update on our very strong first quarter performance, I'd like to take a minute to discuss some of the actions we have taken to respond to the current pandemic situation. I'll start by saying that all areas of our business remain operational due to the extraordinary effort of our employees, suppliers and continuing customer demand for our products. During this time, the health and well-being of our employees remains a top priority, and we are doing our best to create a safe work environment for all Axalis employees. For those who must work in our factory, we have implemented safeguards like physical distancing and have required the use of masks.
Everyone who can work from home is working from home. Field based teams are continuing to support our customers while following both government and customer required safety protocols. Mary did not provide guidance for the quarter as she normally would. The pandemic and potential economic impact has limited our visibility.
Speaker 3
It could
Speaker 2
potentially put uncontrollable challenges in our path. As a result, we will not be providing formal guidance. However, I will highlight that Q1 bookings and backlog finished at record levels, indicating the current strength in demand for Xcel's products and services. Quotation activity continues to be strong, and customer discussions remain very active. Based on our current orders, Q2 revenue could be similar to Q1.
But the many unknowns, including potential supply chain disruption, creates greater than normal uncertainty around our Q2 results. Now turning to the first quarter results. Q1 revenue finished at $119,000,000 well above our guidance compared to $107,700,000 in Q4. Q1 system sales were $82,300,000 compared to $71,400,000 in Q4. Q1 CS and I revenue finished at $36,700,000 compared to $36,300,000 in Q4.
Q1 sales to our top 10 customers accounted for 85.9% of our total sales compared to 85.5% in Q4. Core customers were at 10% or above, the same as in Q4. Q1 system bookings were $115,100,000 compared to $77,200,000 in Q4, with a Q1 book to bill ratio of 1.37 versus 1.06 in Q4. Backlog in Q1, including deferred revenue, finished at $127,000,000 compared to $99,300,000 in Q4. Q1 combined SG and A and R and D spending was $31,800,000 and below our guidance of approximately $33,000,000 due to timing of expenses.
For the quarter, operating expenses were 26.8% of revenue compared to $31,100,000 or 28.9% in Q4. SG and A in the quarter was $17,200,000 with R and D at 14,600,000.0 Q1 gross margin was 38.3% and above guidance compared to 41.1% in Q4. Q1 gross margin was lower than normal due to the closure of three evaluation tools, including the first Purion Dragon. Although we are not providing formal Q2 guidance, we still expect full year gross margin to be greater than 40%, and we remain on track to achieve our gross margin targets in our $550,000,000 and $650,000,000 target models. Operating profit in Q1 finished at $13,700,000 compared to Q4 operating profit of $13,200,000 Q1 net income was $11,200,000 or $0.33 per share and above guidance compared to $9,700,000 or $0.29 per share in Q4.
Inventory ended at $136,100,000 compared to $140,400,000 in Q4. Q1 inventory turns, excluding evaluation tools, finished at 2.2 compared to two point zero in Q4. Q1 accounts payable were $26,100,000 compared to $25,300,000 in Q4. Q1 receivables were $64,200,000 compared to $83,800,000 in Q4. Q1 cash finished at $181,400,000 compared to $146,500,000 in Q4.
Cash from operations in the quarter was $39,700,000 In the quarter, we repurchased $7,500,000 of our common stock but have suspended the repurchase program. We will maintain a conservative cash investment strategy while continuing to invest in the business during these uncertain times. Axcelis entered 2020 with great momentum. While the pandemic has shown us some near term challenges, we have not lost focus on achieving our $550,000,000 and $650,000,000 target models. Our customers continue to have high expectations for our Purion products, which we intend to achieve.
I hope that all of you and your families are well during these challenging times. I will now turn the call back to Mary for closing comments.
Speaker 1
Thank you, Kevin. We are pleased with our excellent first quarter performance and remain focused on executing well for the rest of the year. Axcelis has a competitive Purion product line, a broad and diverse customer base, a strong balance sheet and a dedicated team of employees. We are counting on these strengths to pull us through this difficult period and result in market leadership in Ion implantation. And with that, I'd like to open it up for questions.
Julie?
Speaker 0
Your first question comes from Patrick Ho with Stifel.
Speaker 3
Very much. Congrats on a nice quarter and glad to hear everyone is well. Maybe Kevin, start off first, can you discuss any impact from COVID-nineteen on the gross margin profile, whether there were any experience costs, whether it was on the supply chain, logistics or even manufacturing utilization? And how much of an impact it had in Q1? And if you see anything for Q2?
Speaker 2
Yes. Thanks, Patrick. So let me start off by just putting a little framework around operating expenses. So we are seeing some impact from the coronavirus. It's hitting us in a couple of places.
It's in freight. It's in supplies because we are supplying masks to people. It's additional cleaning in the factories. There's other there are some inefficiencies within the factory. We went to social distancing.
We've had to move workspaces out. So we're working around that. And if you ask me for a number right now, it's probably in the order of $1,000,000 to as high as 1,000,000 point dollars for Q2, Q3 at this point in time, and that's spread, Patrick, across the OpEx line and the gross margin. If I look at my Q2 expenses and based on the revenue we're trying to achieve, which is similar to Q1, operating expenses are going to creep up to about $35,000,000 when you put everything in there that we need to go do both in terms of investing in the new products because we're not slowing down in our investments. We're not slowing down on eval tool that we plan to put in the field.
So there is some impact at this point in time. I'm thinking that it's if this as I look at it right now, it's a Q2, Q3 type of event. I'm assuming in Q4 that we're it's more of a back to normal type situation. But just poking at freight a little bit, I know you're well aware of it and everybody probably is. I mean it's very difficult right now to get freight forwarders and carriers to bring material in and out, consolidated shipments pretty much have ended.
So I think that is one area where also along with probably a lot of our peers are seeing some impact from freight costs. And that predominantly flushes into gross margin, but there is a piece of that that does go into the OpEx. So it's the best product for us, all the benefits.
Speaker 3
Great. That's helpful. And maybe, Kevin, as a follow-up to that question, sticking on the balance sheet and your working capital management, obviously, inventory turns improved and you mentioned the evaluation system going to the customers. From your internal standpoint, how do you feel about your inventory levels given that the entire feature appears to be building a little bit of buffer inventory going from your customers to their end users and even within the supply chain? How do you feel about building up some of the inventory for yourself given any potential further disruption?
Speaker 2
Yes. So that's a good question, Patrick. So everybody wants to get in line to make sure they're getting that part. So we're probably doing the same thing that, again, our peer group are doing. We've looked at our MRP lead time offsets right now.
We've adjusted those a little bit to pull material in earlier. We're also looking at the long lead items, and we're driving some extra material for the long lead items. We're trying to stay ahead of this because the supply chain has been at a day by day event. We've watched it move around the world from starting in Asia, hitting Europe, hitting California. And so the only thing we can do right now is to try to stay ahead of it.
And again, we're driving material a little bit ahead. And you can see almost a similar thing, too, even in our we had a strong service or CS and I revenue in Q1. And you can see some regions, even spare parts with customers are trying to pull ahead a little bit. So it's a game that I think everybody is playing right now. We're trying to stay ahead of it.
Speaker 3
Great. And final question for me and maybe for Barry in terms of the market environment. March saw a pretty healthy level of revenue from China. Can you give a little bit of color on that business? Was it primarily domestic?
And maybe a little color between the mix between foundry and memory?
Speaker 1
Okay. So China is obviously a very important region for Exelis. It runs approximately 30% of our revenues in any given quarter. Right now, China continues to be very active, and we're seeing that primarily in the mature process technology segment with the domestic Chinese manufacturers. Even though a significant portion of our business in China typically comes from the global semiconductor companies right now, there is quite a bit of activity from the domestic customers.
And I would say that activity is a mix really across all segments. We're seeing not only the mature process technology, but we are seeing demand coming from some of the memory customers. And I would say that image sensors also continues to be a very active segment for us. So we continue to watch for that. We are prepared.
We have teams in place to accept the shipments and do the installations. And those are all things that we're watching. So right now, we're very happy that that's an active region, and we're prepared to serve it.
Speaker 3
Great. Thank you very much.
Speaker 0
And your next question comes from Craig Ellis with B. Riley FBR.
Speaker 4
Yes. Thanks for taking the question and congratulations on the good execution in the first quarter. Kevin, I wanted to start with yes, you're welcome. Wanted to start with some clarifications. One, there was an unusually large number of evaluation tools in the quarter.
But if we set that aside and we just looked at Purion system margin performance and cost reduction, would the business have stayed on that nice Purion upward trend that we see in the investor deck? Or were there different things going on with COVID adjustments that would have precluded ongoing margin expansion?
Speaker 2
Yes. So the biggest impact on Q1 was the eval. If I look at what that contributed, Craig, it was about 300 basis points of negative gross margin. So if you add that back, then you can see exactly where we would have been. There are some things flowing through the gross margin line, but they haven't really hit yet because a lot of basically how we do the buildup on the expenses and capitalize variances and bring it back through in a future point in time, most of that starts to hit in the Q2, Q3 areas.
So Q1 was really all about the eval tools and like that. Was about 300 basis points of negative impact. In terms of the cost out activity, we're still right on point with our road maps. I think you're well aware of it. We've been talking about for a while that we've got many things we're doing with both the supply chain and continue to do in the factory with lean events.
And the coronavirus has not impacted that. Even though a lot of folks are working from home, we're keeping up with everything. Engineers are keeping up with things. Purchasing is keeping up and all the support groups. At this point in time, the people in the factory are the direct labor people manufacturing, some supervision and some support.
But the good news is everybody else working from home is keeping up. So everything we wanted to do with our road maps, we're still on track. And I'm still very comfortable with the margin targets we have in both the $550,000,000 and $650,000,000 target models.
Speaker 4
Very good. And certainly a significant accomplishment in this environment. Just further clarifying that point, is it reasonable to think that there's one ish evaluation tools per quarter? Or would they be above or below that? Not looking for specific guidance, but just some color
Speaker 2
on what you see in the funnel. So I'll tell you, there's many more evals going out this year than what we disclosed in Q1. So there's plenty of evals in there. And that's part of the investment I'm making too because a big chunk of that hits the OpEx line. But when I talk about still seeing our full year gross margins average greater than 40%, I've got that accounted for, Craig.
So even though we've got a fair number of evals coming at us, this was an unusually the cards are stacked against us in this quarter. We had three valves closed. We also had a very high mix of high current. And you can see from our investor presentation, unfortunately, H is still at a lower margin, but it's continuing to get better. So we like I said, we had a few things stacked against us this quarter.
But going forward, I still expect even with this start at 38.3% that our full year average is still going be above 40% based on what we're seeing for the Q2, Q3, Q4.
Speaker 4
That's great.
Speaker 5
And then yes,
Speaker 6
go ahead.
Speaker 5
Craig, just wanted to add one thing relative to expectations for future evals. The new products, the Purion XEmax, the Purion H200, Dragon and so forth, those are key targets for evals over the course of this year. So that's really part of the growth towards the $550,000,000 and especially towards the $650,000,000 model is getting those products seated.
Speaker 4
Absolutely. Thanks, Doug. Mary, I wanted to see if we could get some color just on what you're seeing with the bookings and backlog strength for the first quarter, what that might mean for the mix of business in the second quarter? I know there's not specific guidance given the uncertainty, but any color on how some of the key segments might trend mature foundry and then within memory, any DRAM and NAND color?
Speaker 1
Okay. So I can tell you what the bookings look like for the first quarter. We have said that bookings typically come in one quarter and those tools are typically shipped in the same quarter, but I can give you some color around it. So the bookings for Q1, it actually a fifty-fifty split between mature process technology and memory. And also that split was pretty even in memory between DRAM and NAND.
So that will give you a sense. And we mentioned on our last call that we believe that memory spending has picked up. It started for us in Q4. In Q1, we talked about how approximately 50% of our shipments were for memory. And we are seeing strength in memory going into Q2 as well.
Given the fact that we have all the COVID-nineteen activity going on, it's hard to assess the potential impact that, that will have on any specific segment going forward, particularly memory, but we still expect the memory spending to increase in 2021 and 2022. We mentioned that automotive has been impacted, which obviously has an impact for us or a negative impact on power devices. So we've seen a little bit of slowdown in some of the mature process technology areas where customers are specifically focused on automotive. But other than that, demand really continues to be strong. And we attribute that not only to having a strong Purion product line, but having that large diverse customer base is positive.
And so we think that while there may be some fluctuations, some downward fluctuations in some market segments, we think that there will be a positive impact in other market segments. And we're hoping that, that will provide somewhat of a buffer for us moving forward. But demand in general continues to be strong.
Speaker 4
That's really helpful. And Mary, I know you spend a lot of time just out meeting with customers. I'm wondering if you could help us with any color just beyond the second quarter as it relates to the year's linearity. Any sense from those customer conversations if the environment is setting up for flattish linearity up, potentially down given how strong things are in the first half? Thanks for any insights there.
Speaker 1
Yes. It's really hard to tell what's going to happen moving forward. I just mentioned some of the observations that we've had based on some of the market segments. But any further color, customers are obviously taking a hard look at what's going on right now in terms of demand from their customers. And that's the part we just don't know is what is the economic impact going to be on their business and then how that will run down or impact our business.
So we continue to watch that. But as I said, right now, things continue to be quite strong and our sales teams are monitoring that on a daily basis and feeding that into us. So I think we have a pretty good handle right now on the demand for Q2, as Kevin said, but there obviously is a lot of uncertainty around some of the other factors that are going into that as he explained. So Craig, it's really hard to look much further out than that at this point and make any predictions.
Speaker 4
Understandable. Congratulations on the performance, Marie. Thank you.
Speaker 0
Thanks. And your next question comes from Christian Schwab with Craig Hallum Capital.
Speaker 7
Hey, good morning, guys. Great quarter. A little bit clarity more clarity on the cautiousness to give exact guidance on the top line for Q2. When you're looking at the supply chain issues, is the concern more movement restrictions? Or is it actually fears of regaining certain components?
Or in addition, is there any cautiousness that you could, as the quarter goes on, see customer push outs of the extremely strong backlog that you currently have in place? If there's any color you could provide there, that'd be great.
Speaker 2
Yes. So Christian, right now, it's all around the supply chain. From a demand point of view, I'm not worried about the customer. As matter of fact, there's probably more customers who like to pull things in than push out at this point. It really is keeping track of the supply chain, which is very global.
I mean we've had demand generally from factories that might have had a discrete outbreak with the virus where they had to have temporary shutdowns. We've got things coming out of Mexico where factories still can't have more than 50 people per shift on them, things like cables, for example. We've dealt with shutdowns that were in California. So the caution really is around the daily changing environment with supply chain. And again, it's we can certainly look at our suppliers right now and know where there's state regulations that may be slowing people down or shutting them down, but it's gets back to discrete outbreaks, for example.
And all of a sudden, you've got a critical supplier who's not delivering. So that's probably the most color I can give you right now. So that's why we're being a little bit cautious because we are, on a daily basis, we're dealing with things. We have a fairly large supply chain. There's a lot of components that go on these implanters, and it only takes a couple that can stop you.
Speaker 7
Great. That's fabulous color. And then Mary or Doug, as you guys or Mary talked about your expectations for an improvement in memory spending environment in 2020 and for that to continue into growth in 2021. Can you give us some color on your guys' thoughts, the impact of growing capital intensity in each step, no change in NAND and DRAM. Is that the predominant reason for that?
Or do you finally believe we'll begin to see due to ongoing memory demand, the beginnings of capacity capacity additions versus technology node transitions impacting spending? Any clarity on your guys' long term visions on that would be fabulous.
Speaker 3
Okay.
Speaker 5
So I think as we said in the call, last year memory underinvested. There's so there's a fair amount of activity, especially on the technology side right now and a little bit on capacity. So we would expect 2020, it continues in that manner. 2021 is really still the point where we'll start to see capacity, big capacity increases, which hasn't really changed on the grand scheme of things throughout the COVID-nineteen crisis. So we're seeing a lot of interest and there's a lot of activity relative to the more difficult implant steps.
Hence, there's a lot of interest in the Dragon product in those steps. There's more high energy activity in some of those some of the NAND steps and so forth. So I think it's probably a little more driven by technology at this point, Christian, with some capacity adds. Keeping in mind as people add layer counts, it doesn't directly impact implants in the sense that there's more implants required for the next layer count, but it does affect the capacity balance within the factory, which usually does mean they do need to rebalance and add some implant steps, some implanters. So it's a combination for 2020 and 2021 is I think where we're going to really see the step up in capacity adds.
Speaker 7
Great. And then my last question, congratulations on a bunch of eval tools out there. Should we be watching eval tools in particular, potentially the Dragon as kind of the leading indicator throughout this year for market share gains in 2021?
Speaker 1
Yes. I mean, we've talked Doug, in the past go ahead. It's fine.
Speaker 5
Well, I guess what I was going to say, Christian, was that the new tools are very important indicators on the for the model growth. The I think one of the things we talked about at the Investor Day was how the current products, some of the products like the VXE and some of the power devices are very critical towards the May model and that the newer ones Dragon, XE Max, Purion H200 will have some influence over the five fifty model, but are very important for the six fifty model. So I think you should be looking at the evals for the new products as having much more impact on the longer term model than on the near term. The current product set is are the main drivers for the five fifty model.
Speaker 7
Okay. All right. That's very helpful. Thank you.
Speaker 0
And your next question comes from Tom Diffely with D. A. Davidson.
Speaker 8
Yes. Good morning. So first, I guess, a clarification for Kevin. It sounds like if revenues are flat quarter over quarter, you think margin gross margins will be up a little bit even though there are some extra costs coming from the corona the extra costs from the coronavirus?
Speaker 2
Yes. Yes, Tom, based on the cost out activity that we currently have in play in the Q2 mix, which does not have the three evals like Q1 that we'll continue to see margin expand. Throughout the year, we're going to have to continue to do a better quarter by quarter to hit that greater than 40% for the full year, which I fully expect at this point we're going to do. And at this point, I have the impact as I know it baked into those gross margin assumptions. And there's in Q2, Q3 is where at this point I see the majority of the impact on the business based on what I know today.
Speaker 8
Yes. Okay. That's very helpful. And then, when we look at the new products, specifically here, the Dragon, so obviously very nice to see a follow on order and the shipment of that. But how do you see that rolling out?
Does it stay with the NAND market for a while? And then ultimately, you get to look from the DRAM or the logic market or companies looking at for all three end markets? A little color there would be great.
Speaker 5
Okay. So the initial customer has looked at it for both and started just based on their demand and their technology needs started on the NAND side. There's still strong interest on the DRAM side, and we'll see that rollout. And there's strong interest in the logic advanced logic side in the product as well. So I think, Tom, we can't go into the specifics for each of the customers, but the sales team and marketing team and the customers, they have a strategy for sort of the combination of Purion H and Dragon for each of the applications and what fits for the different recipe needs for each of the technologies.
So I think you should expect to see Dragon, it's starting with NAND. It wouldn't surprise me to see DRAM activity over the course of this year and certainly into next year
Speaker 8
as well. Okay. So it's not a situation where the technology advantages on the Dragon are more evident or more suited towards NAND versus DRAM based on the structure?
Speaker 5
Yes. No, it's absolutely, not specific to NAND. So all of those all three of the advanced technologies, whether it's logic, DRAM or NAND, have similar structural things and uniformity requirements that Dragon is better at than the existing products on the market. Great.
Speaker 8
Okay. And then finally, when you look at the penetration into the Japanese market, how big a market is that for eye implant right now?
Speaker 1
Think that Japan actually
Speaker 3
Go ahead. Go ahead, Mary.
Speaker 1
All right. We actually think that Japan represents about 15% of the overall $1,000,000,000 ion implant TAM, so about $150,000,000 We have not sold there for a number of years, just recently broke back in and sold some legacy systems. But we're very excited because we did just receive our first PO for a Purion product. It was a Purion XE for a power device application from a Japanese customer. So we believe now that we have many opportunities to expand into other customers in other market segments.
We are working very closely with the large Japanese customers. We're continuing to collaborate with Screen, and we have equipment in their lab. But one of the things that we've learned over the last two years from working with Screen is that customers actually want to buy directly from Axcelis because of the highly technical sales process associated with an ion implanter. So we have, over the last few years, been building a Japanese organization, and we're continuing to staff our own, Exelis Direct team. And in fact, we recently hired a new Japanese country manager.
So it's a large opportunity, and we're planning to aggressively go after it.
Speaker 8
Okay, great. Thank you. Appreciate
Speaker 5
let me if I can add just one more thing. This is another one where the Japanese market is something that we think is important on the $6.50 model. We'll have lesser impact on the march to the $550,000,000 model. And so it's something that we expect we'll be patient with and will take some time.
Speaker 8
Okay. Thanks, Doug.
Speaker 0
Your next question comes from David Dooley, Fieldhouse Securities.
Speaker 6
Yes, thanks. Most of my questions have been answered, but I still have a few. I guess first question is the strength in the orders and the book to bill. Orders were up substantially and your book to bill, I guess, was 1.3, but you kind of implied that your revenues, everything shakes out as you expect, would be flat. Could you just talk about why you would expect flat with that surge in orders?
Speaker 2
Well, we're looking at, at this point, what we believe we can deliver on in terms of commitments. And again, what kind of gets in our way is we don't know from day to day what could happen with supply chain disruptions. So we feel at this point, it could be similar. Again, there's day to day things that could interrupt it. We have a pretty strong backlog coming out of the quarter, too.
Or I mean, yes, backlog, I think, is $127,000,000 So can see things are growing up a little bit, but that's just where we think we're going be at this point in time, Gary.
Speaker 6
So this quarter, you're going to ship a lot more out of the backlog rather than book and ship during the quarter, I guess, is one assumption.
Speaker 2
We still I mean, there's still a lot of quoting activity. So we it doesn't mean that Q2 can't be another strong bookings quarter. Quotation activity remains strong at this point. So I think the real key is that the good news so far is that we haven't seen, at least Xcel hasn't seen a falloff in customer demand for products. And based on the Q1 numbers, bookings and backlog and based on the quotation activity we're still seeing, we're expecting that to continue at this point.
Speaker 6
Okay. So it's fair to say that any constraints you have on revenue are supply side driven rather than demand from the customers at this point?
Speaker 2
Absolutely for Q2, yes. Yes.
Speaker 5
Okay. And Dave, if I could just add on that. When you get into the segmented markets and some of the specialty markets and so forth and the mature process technologies, those guys do plan out a little bit longer, in terms of POs and so forth. So some bookings are not necessarily in the same quarter when in these in some of these markets versus the memory, which is tends to be much more book and ship very close together.
Speaker 6
Okay. And then, as far as Chinese revenue goes, they kind of went into the pandemic first and then I guess they were one of the first geographic regions to come out. And I realize you have a lot of exposure to China, but are you seeing the domestic Chinese guys' activity improve substantially as their economy improves? And do you think that, that can be a good guide for what we might expect when The U. S.
And European gets to the same point in the curve?
Speaker 1
So Dave, I don't actually think we saw a significant change in demand from China even during the first quarter while they were going through the height of the pandemic. They did a pretty good job of keeping things going. I would say for the most part, the fabs continued to run. We continued to service the equipment in those fabs. We installed new equipment in those fabs.
I'm not going to say that goes without challenges, and I want to thank our employees for actually making that happen. But we didn't really see any significant slowdown in China. So moving into Q2, it's pretty much business as usual. There hasn't been any significant change in for the most part in the way that they have been laying out their products. And if anything, I would say, maybe things have accelerated a little bit.
They're asking for pull ins, but I'm not sure if that's any acceleration in projects as much as it is what Kevin mentioned earlier, customers are a little bit nervous about supply chain issues. And so they continue to work with us and contact us to make sure that we are able to ship their products on time, and they're happy to take, in some cases, them earlier if we can get the shipments out earlier.
Speaker 6
Okay. Final question for me is, as far as the evaluation systems that were placed during the March, I guess three, you got follow on orders for one of those evals. Would we expect follow on orders from the other two evaluation systems in the current quarter? Or when would we expect follow ons for those other evals?
Speaker 1
So all of those evals were memory evals. They are applications we've been working with the customer on for a long time. But I think given some of the things that are going on and the timing of the investment plans of those customers, I don't think it's something that we're necessarily going to see in the short term, meaning the next quarter, maybe even two quarters. It's just simply a function of planning and when those customers are going to make an investment. And I'm not sure any of those things have changed significantly as a result of what's going on right now with the pandemic.
I think it's something that we knew in advance or have known for a while.
Speaker 6
Great. Thanks for answering my questions.
Speaker 2
Thank you.
Speaker 0
Your next question comes from Mark Miller with The Benchmark Company.
Speaker 9
Thank you for the question. I'm glad everyone is staying healthy at Axcelis.
Speaker 2
Thanks Mark.
Speaker 9
You're welcome. In terms of the eval tools, do you have any eval tools in Japan currently?
Speaker 1
No, we don't have any eval tools in Japan currently. The tool that we're shipping is not going to be an eval. We have one outstanding evaluation right now that is being used by an image sensor customer that we are forecasting will close within this year. But as Kevin mentioned, and Doug mentioned, we have a lot of new products right now that we're working with customers on to seed the market. And we will have additional evals going out throughout the year.
In fact, a significant number of evals going out, which, again, as Kevin mentioned, is one of the things driving for the year. But it's a great investment for us to make for the future for the 05/5650 model.
Speaker 9
I believe you said you mentioned you weren't really seeing any major impact in terms of component supply for your equipment because of the virus. Was that correct?
Speaker 2
No. So I guess, yes or no. So we're working around issues on a daily basis, Mark. But at this point, we've been able to resolve most of the issues we've had. Some of them have been taken longer than others.
It's definitely impacted the flow of material into the factory in terms of the cell starts and stuff. But there's been nothing to date that's put us down hard. We've been able to so far work around things. And as I mentioned, probably the biggest impact is the unknown at this point. I know what I know, but I don't know what I don't know.
And there are we have had to deal with some actually some of the smaller suppliers where there was discrete outbreaks in their factories, and they had to shut down for a period of time. So that's kind of what we're navigating around. I think in terms of what the governments are going to do around the world, the various governments, we have a good handle on the capacity of our suppliers. We know where there are still restrictions. We know what limitations we're working with.
So again, this is more about what could change on a daily basis. Discrete components, that's we buy a lot of parts, but there's millions of parts that go into the parts we buy. It's hard to even know what could happen to any discrete component, a capacitor, transistor, whatever. So but anyway, we're working around what we know at this point, Mark.
Speaker 9
You benefited from a lower corporate tax rate in the March. Is that going to go back to a more normal corporate tax rate in the rest of quarters of this year?
Speaker 1
Yes. I mean I'm
Speaker 2
not sure we're going to for many years, we're going to I think we've always felt they view as 21%, 22%. There still could be different pickups in that. We have R and D tax credit, for example, that we're still working through. But it will probably come up from where it was in Q1.
Speaker 9
What was the reason it was so low? Was it the R and D tax credits phasing in?
Speaker 2
Yes. There was various credits that we had coming through that we phased in.
Speaker 9
Thank you.
Speaker 2
Yes.
Speaker 0
And your next question comes from Craig Ellis with B. Riley FBR.
Speaker 4
Yes. Thanks for taking the follow-up. Two, please. The first one, Mary, from the depiction that we're hearing around China, it seems that China has potential to stay more in the mid- to high-30s than drift back towards what's historically been about 30% of sales. Is that a fair view of what the team is seeing over the next quarter or so?
Speaker 1
Craig, I'm not going to give you any guidance on China. I will say that we do expect it to continue to contribute a large portion of our revenues moving out through the rest of the year.
Speaker 4
Okay. And then the follow-up question is more strategic and it goes back to Analyst Day. At Analyst Day, I thought one of the more interesting slides relative to the five fifty and six fifty models were the market segmentation work the team had done across mature process technology, membrane, advanced logic and the 30 to 40 implant recipes that the company sees across those as incremental opportunities for new product and custom product. As we move through this year and exit 2020, Mary, where will we be in terms of progress, placing product into those 30 to 40 incremental recipes? And what should we expect the team could do in 2021 there?
Speaker 1
Doug, do you want to take that?
Speaker 5
Sure. Craig, the XEmax is a key product in the image sensor space that we're going after several recipes. So we should we would expect and hope that we'll see valuation systems for that over that time frame that you're discussing. Purion Dragon certainly has a lot of interest, has the first eval closed and the first follow on for NAND order. As I mentioned before, in one of the other questions, we would expect additional activity in NAND and in the DRAM, and hopefully into logic over that cycle.
And then the Purion H is Purion H200, excuse me, is targeted first and foremost at the power device market. And so there's a lot of interest there because it's a much more productive tool for those applications, which is key to the customers in reducing the overall cost of their devices. So I think that we should over this next couple of years that you described, see many applications and many new evals of, especially of those three systems.
Speaker 2
That's great. Thanks, team. Okay. Thanks, Greg. Thank you.
Speaker 1
Thank you.
Speaker 0
And this concludes the Q and A portion of the call. I will now turn the call back over to Mary Poonman, who will make any closing remarks.
Speaker 1
Thank you, Julie. I'd like to thank everyone for listening to our call, and we hope you can join us virtually for several conferences this spring. We will be participating in the Craig Hallum seventeenth Annual Institutional Investor Conference on May 27, the Cowen twenty twenty Technology Media and Telecom Conference on May 29 and the Stifel twenty twenty Cross Sector Insight Conference on June 8. We will also be participating in virtual non deal roadshows with D. A.
Davidson and B. Riley during the quarter. We thank you for your continued support and please stay healthy.
Speaker 0
This concludes the presentation. Thank you for your participation in today's conference. You may now disconnect.