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ACM Research, Inc. (ACMR)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q3 2025 revenue was $269.16M, up 32% year-over-year and above Wall Street consensus of $251.7M; gross margin fell to 42.0% due to product mix and inventory provisions; non-GAAP diluted EPS was $0.36 versus consensus $0.53, while GAAP diluted EPS was $0.52 . Revenue estimates from S&P Global; EPS estimates from S&P Global.
- Management narrowed FY25 revenue guidance to $875M–$925M (prior $850M–$950M), citing trade policy, customer spending scenarios, supply chain constraints, and timing of first-tool acceptances; effective tax rate guide lowered to ~7–8% (from ~10–15% earlier in the year) .
- Total shipments were $263.1M (+0.7% YoY); CFO flagged expected Q4 shipments down QoQ and full-year shipments down YoY on customer pushouts and parts shortages; net cash ended at ~$811M, with liquidity (cash, restricted cash, and time deposits) at ~$1.10B .
- Strategic catalysts: first Ultra Lith KrF Track shipment, high-temp SPM performance (single-digit particle counts at 19nm), horizontal panel-level plating debut planned for Q4; long-term revenue target reaffirmed at $4B ($2.5B China/$1.5B global) .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Record revenue and strong multi-product traction: $269.2M, +32% YoY, with growth across single-wafer cleaning/Tahoe/semi-critical, ECP (front-end and packaging), furnace/other, and advanced packaging (ex-ECP), services & spares .
- Technology milestones: “We are seeing broad interest in our proprietary horizontal plating technology for panel-level packaging… first system in the fourth quarter” and “our high-temperature SPM platform… achieves industry-best performance at 19nm particle size and below” (CEO) .
- Liquidity strengthened: ACM Shanghai raised ~$623M net on STAR Market; consolidated cash, restricted cash, and time deposits rose to ~$1.10B; net cash ~$811M .
What Went Wrong
- Margins compressed: GAAP gross margin 42.0% (vs 51.4% YoY); CFO cited ~200 bps product mix headwind from smaller front-end tools and ~300 bps inventory provisions/COGS adjustments .
- Non-GAAP earnings declined: Operating margin 13.6% (vs 27.5% YoY) and non-GAAP diluted EPS $0.36 (vs $0.63 YoY) reflecting higher OpEx and adjustments; Wall Street EPS miss versus consensus .
- Shipment outlook softer: Q4 shipments likely down QoQ; full-year shipments expected down YoY amid customer deferrals and parts shortages; some new products shifting revenue contribution to 2026 .
Financial Results
Summary vs Prior Quarters
Actual vs Consensus (Q3 2025)
Estimates from S&P Global.*
Product Category Revenue
KPIs
Non-GAAP adjustments: Non-GAAP excludes stock-based compensation; non-GAAP net income/EPS also exclude unrealized gains/losses on short-term investments (e.g., Q3 unrealized gain $18.7M) .
Guidance Changes
Additional item: ACM Shanghai paid RMB 264.9M ($36.8M) cash dividend to shareholders, including ACM, during Q3; ACM’s stake in ACM Shanghai declined to 74.6% post offering .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “We believe the market is moving toward ACM as AI and global datacenter investments are demanding new innovative technology requirements for next generation semiconductor equipment” (CEO) .
- “Our high-temperature SPM platform… achieves industry-best performance at 19nm particle size and below… significantly lower maintenance and no need to clean the outer chamber” (CEO) .
- “Gross margin was 42.1%. This was at the low end of our target due in part to product mix… ~200 bps… and… inventory provisions… ~300 bps” (CFO) .
- “We have narrowed our 2025 revenue outlook to $875M–$925M… This implies 15% year-over-year growth” (CEO) .
- “Net cash… was $811M or about $12 per share… Cash and… time deposits were $1.1B at quarter-end” (CFO) .
Q&A Highlights
- Shipments outlook and parts shortages: Customer deferrals into Q1’26 and component shortages pushed shipments; Q4 likely down QoQ; full-year shipments down YoY, with recovery expected in 1H’26 .
- Inventory write-down: ~300 bps COGS headwind tied to aging raw materials and some finished goods; primarily internal tools; process-driven valuation .
- Panel-level packaging opportunity: Horizontal copper plating approach recognized with industry award; first tool shipping in Q4; active engagements in Taiwan/U.S./China .
- Product roadmap: PCVD with three-chuck chambers shipping/commissioning; expected 2026 revenue contribution; continued furnace and Track development .
- ACM Shanghai vs ACMR results: Differences driven by China GAAP rev-rec on installation vs US GAAP ASC 606 (acceptance for first-tool); ACMR does not capitalize R&D, bears incremental public company and global sales costs .
Estimates Context
- Q3 2025 comparison: Revenue beat and EPS miss. Revenue: $269.16M vs $251.7M consensus; EPS (Primary/Non-GAAP): $0.36 vs $0.53 consensus. GAAP diluted EPS: $0.52 (not the basis for “Primary EPS”). Revenue estimates from S&P Global; EPS estimates from S&P Global.
- Implications: Street likely raises revenue estimates for ACM’s multi-product momentum but trims EPS/margin assumptions given mix and inventory provisions; tax-rate guide reduction supports EPS beyond Q3 .
Estimates from S&P Global.*
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Revenue strength broad-based across cleaning, ECP, and advanced packaging; expect Street revenue revisions upward despite margin compression in Q3 .
- Margin narrative: Near-term mix (smaller front-end tools) and inventory provisions weighed; model range (42–48%) unchanged, suggesting self-help and mix normalization potential in 2026 .
- Non-GAAP EPS miss vs consensus reflects mix/COGS; lowered effective tax-rate guide (7–8%) is EPS-supportive going forward .
- Shipments trajectory: Q4 down QoQ and FY down YoY; watch Q1/Q2 2026 for inflection as parts shortages resolve and new tools contribute .
- Strategic catalysts: First panel-level horizontal plating shipment in Q4; KrF Track shipped; furnace/PCVD progress—key to medium-term share gains, including outside China .
- Liquidity and balance sheet strength (net cash ~$811M; liquidity ~$1.10B) fund R&D and capacity build (Lingang mini-line; Oregon demo/production), mitigating tariff risk for U.S. customers .
- Long-term thesis: $4B LT revenue target reaffirmed (China $2.5B/global $1.5B) anchored by differentiated IP and multi-product expansion; monitor global customer adoptions in 2026+ .
Additional Q3 2025 Documents Reviewed
- 8-K earnings press release (Q3 2025), including Exhibit 99.1 with detailed financials and product/category tables .
- Preliminary revenue/shipments press release (Oct 29, 2025): Revenue $264–$267M; shipments $257–$262M (unaudited ranges) .
- Earnings call transcript (Nov 5, 2025): Prepared remarks and Q&A on margins, shipments, product roadmap, tax rate, and liquidity .
- Prior two quarters for trend analysis: Q2 2025 release and call , Q1 2025 release and call .