ACMR Q4 2024: Sees strong advanced packaging growth, Q4 guidance wide
- Advanced Packaging Growth: Management highlighted strong potential in advanced packaging—including a ramp in panel packaging products—which could drive revenue expansion in 2025.
- Robust Order Visibility: Executives noted good visibility, especially through Q3, with revenue projections based on strong purchase orders and a record shipment history, underpinning future growth.
- Strong Plating Market Position: The company maintains a dominant market share of 30% to 35% in both front-end and back-end plating, bolstering its competitive advantage.
- Revenue Projection Uncertainty: Executives noted that Q4 orders remain unclear with a broad revenue outlook range, introducing substantial uncertainty into fiscal 2025 expectations.
- Export Control Concerns: The discussion revealed that export restrictions affecting certain customers could negatively impact their spending plans, posing a risk to future revenue.
- Customer Concentration Risk: Four customers accounted for over 52% of revenues, meaning significant revenue volatility could occur if any key customer reduces or delays spending.
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Revenue Guidance
Q: How do low and high revenue guidance scenarios differ?
A: Management explained that the guidance is based on last year’s record shipments and current customer POs, with the low-end reflecting conservative estimates and the high-end including expected expansions—though Q4 remains uncertain. -
Visibility Timeline
Q: Is Q3 visibility better than Q4?
A: Management noted that while they have good visibility through Q3, the outlook for Q4 is still unclear, with more clarity expected by the end of Q2. -
Export Control Impact
Q: How do export controls affect customer spending?
A: Management observed that some customers are being affected by export controls while others continue to expand, indicating a mixed impact that is still under evaluation. -
Plating Market
Q: What is plating market share in China?
A: Management stated that their plating market share in China is approximately 30% to 35% across both front-end and back-end applications. -
Advanced Packaging
Q: What are AP sales expectations for 2025?
A: Management expects advanced packaging to grow strongly in 2025, driven by new product cycles and evolving trends in 2.5D/3D packaging, implying an improvement over last year. -
Sales Breakdown
Q: How are sales split among memory, logic, and EV?
A: Management did not provide a detailed breakdown by end market, noting instead that over 52% of revenue comes from four major customers, leaving the specific split among memory, logic, and EV undisclosed.