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    ACM Research (ACMR)

    ACMR Q4 2024: Sees strong advanced packaging growth, Q4 guidance wide

    Reported on Jun 24, 2025 (Before Market Open)
    Pre-Earnings Price$22.94Last close (Feb 25, 2025)
    Post-Earnings Price$27.67Open (Feb 26, 2025)
    Price Change
    $4.73(+20.62%)
    • Advanced Packaging Growth: Management highlighted strong potential in advanced packaging—including a ramp in panel packaging products—which could drive revenue expansion in 2025.
    • Robust Order Visibility: Executives noted good visibility, especially through Q3, with revenue projections based on strong purchase orders and a record shipment history, underpinning future growth.
    • Strong Plating Market Position: The company maintains a dominant market share of 30% to 35% in both front-end and back-end plating, bolstering its competitive advantage.
    • Revenue Projection Uncertainty: Executives noted that Q4 orders remain unclear with a broad revenue outlook range, introducing substantial uncertainty into fiscal 2025 expectations.
    • Export Control Concerns: The discussion revealed that export restrictions affecting certain customers could negatively impact their spending plans, posing a risk to future revenue.
    • Customer Concentration Risk: Four customers accounted for over 52% of revenues, meaning significant revenue volatility could occur if any key customer reduces or delays spending.
    1. Revenue Guidance
      Q: How do low and high revenue guidance scenarios differ?
      A: Management explained that the guidance is based on last year’s record shipments and current customer POs, with the low-end reflecting conservative estimates and the high-end including expected expansions—though Q4 remains uncertain.

    2. Visibility Timeline
      Q: Is Q3 visibility better than Q4?
      A: Management noted that while they have good visibility through Q3, the outlook for Q4 is still unclear, with more clarity expected by the end of Q2.

    3. Export Control Impact
      Q: How do export controls affect customer spending?
      A: Management observed that some customers are being affected by export controls while others continue to expand, indicating a mixed impact that is still under evaluation.

    4. Plating Market
      Q: What is plating market share in China?
      A: Management stated that their plating market share in China is approximately 30% to 35% across both front-end and back-end applications.

    5. Advanced Packaging
      Q: What are AP sales expectations for 2025?
      A: Management expects advanced packaging to grow strongly in 2025, driven by new product cycles and evolving trends in 2.5D/3D packaging, implying an improvement over last year.

    6. Sales Breakdown
      Q: How are sales split among memory, logic, and EV?
      A: Management did not provide a detailed breakdown by end market, noting instead that over 52% of revenue comes from four major customers, leaving the specific split among memory, logic, and EV undisclosed.

    Research analysts covering ACM Research.