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ANALOG DEVICES INC (ADI)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 FY25 revenue was $2.423B and adjusted EPS $1.63, both above the midpoint of guidance; headline y/y declines (-4% revenue, -6% adj EPS) mask a +4% y/y increase when adjusting for the extra week in Q1 FY24, per CFO commentary .
  • Q2 FY25 guidance calls for $2.50B ± $0.10B revenue, ~40.5% adjusted operating margin (±100 bps), and $1.68 ± $0.10 adjusted EPS, with Industrial leading sequential growth and Automotive also up; management expects double-digit y/y growth in Q2 .
  • Capital return stepped up: dividend raised 8% to $0.99/share and buyback authorization increased by $10B (remaining authorization ≈$11.5B), reinforcing a long-term target to return 100% of FCF to shareholders .
  • Recovery signals strengthened: positive book-to-bill in Q1, channel inventories below the 7–8 week target while ADI ships to sell-through, and improving bookings led by Industrial and Automotive—key setup for sequential growth and a return to growth in FY25 .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Mix-driven margin resilience: adjusted GM rose to 68.8% (up 90 bps q/q), supporting 40.5% adjusted operating margin and $1.63 adjusted EPS at the high end of guidance; “revenue, profitability, and EPS all finished above the midpoint” (CEO) .
    • AI and data center exposure building: shipping high-precision electro-optical controllers in 1.6T modules for AI systems; vertical power solutions moving to production with a hyperscaler in 2H CY25 .
    • Capital return signaling confidence: 8% dividend hike to $0.99 (21st consecutive increase) and $10B added to repurchase authorization to ≈$11.5B remaining; long-term goal remains 100% FCF return (40–60% via dividend) .
  • What Went Wrong

    • Y/Y softness persists in core end markets: Industrial -10% y/y, Automotive -2% y/y, Communications -4% y/y; GAAP operating margin compressed to 20.3% (-300 bps y/y) despite adjusted strength .
    • Consumer seasonal downtick: Consumer revenue fell 15% q/q (still +19% y/y), highlighting seasonal sensitivity even as content trends improve .
    • Inventory metrics remain elevated: days of inventory rose to 176 as ADI replenishes die bank to support responsiveness; channel inventories remain below the 7–8 week target, and management is shipping to sell-through, not restocking near term .

Financial Results

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$2,312 $2,443 $2,423
GAAP Gross Margin %56.7% 58.0% 59.0%
Adjusted Gross Margin %67.9% 67.9% 68.8%
GAAP Operating Margin %21.2% 23.3% 20.3%
Adjusted Operating Margin %41.2% 41.1% 40.5%
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$0.79 $0.96 $0.78
Adjusted Diluted EPS ($)$1.58 $1.67 $1.63

Note: CFO indicated adjusting for the extra week in Q1 FY24 turns Q1 FY25 to +4% y/y revenue growth (vs -4% reported) .

Segment/end-market revenue

End Market ($USD Millions)Q3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Industrial$1,058.7 $1,071.0 $1,077.9
Automotive$670.3 $717.0 $732.5
Consumer$316.6 $379.7 $322.9
Communications$266.6 $275.6 $289.9
Total$2,312.2 $2,443.2 $2,423.2

KPIs and cash metrics

KPIQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Net Cash from Ops ($MM)$855.0 $1,050.8 $1,126.8
Capex ($MM)$(153.9) $(165.4) $(149.0)
Free Cash Flow ($MM)$701.1 $885.4 $977.8
FCF as % of Revenue30% 36% 40%
Dividend per Share$0.92 (declared for Sep 17, 2024) $0.92 (paid Dec 20, 2024) $0.99 (declared for Mar 17, 2025)
Days of InventoryN/AN/A176
Book-to-billN/AN/APositive in Q1
Net leverage ratioN/AN/A1.1

Non-GAAP adjustments (Q1 FY25): GAAP EPS $0.78 plus $0.85 acquisition-related, plus $0.13 special charges, minus $0.13 tax items = adjusted EPS $1.63 .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
RevenueQ2 FY25N/A (no prior Q2 guide)$2.50B ± $0.10BNew
Reported Operating MarginQ2 FY25N/A~24.2% ± 160 bpsNew
Adjusted Operating MarginQ2 FY25N/A~40.5% ± 100 bpsNew
Reported EPSQ2 FY25N/A$0.97 ± $0.10New
Adjusted EPSQ2 FY25N/A$1.68 ± $0.10New
Non-operating expensesQ2 FY25N/A~ $60MMNew
Tax rateQ2 FY25N/A11%–13%New
DividendOngoing$0.92 (Q4 FY24) $0.99 (Q1 FY25) Raised
Share repurchase authorizationOngoingN/A+$10B; remaining ≈$11.5BIncreased

Management also noted Q1 actuals exceeded the midpoint of prior guidance (given 11/26/24: Q1 revenue $2.35B ± $0.10B; adjusted EPS $1.53 ± $0.10), delivering $2.423B and $1.63 respectively .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3 FY24, Q4 FY24)Current Period (Q1 FY25)Trend
AI/data center contentPositioning to intersect secular trends; improving order momentum into Q4 Shipping 1.6T electro-optical controllers for AI systems; vertical power to production in 2H CY25 with hyperscaler Improving
Supply chain/inventoryCustomer inventory levels improving; cautious recovery Channel inventories below 7–8 weeks; shipping to sell-through; days inventory 176; positive book-to-bill Normalizing
Industrial demandSequential growth resumed; trough passed Industrial up 1% q/q; expected fastest-growing market in Q2; broad market pick-up Improving
Automotive (China/EV/content)Bookings improvement led by Automotive in Q4 China strength; content wins (GMSL, A2B, safety power); BMS to return to growth in ’25 Improving
Capital returns$0.92 dividend maintained; ongoing buybacks Dividend raised to $0.99; +$10B authorization; 100% FCF LT target reiterated More aggressive
Macro/geopolitics & manufacturing resiliencyCautious on macro; hybrid model as a strength Dual sourcing plan: ≥95% products dual-sourced by late ’26/early ’27; desensitized geographic risk Strengthening resiliency

Management Commentary

  • CEO: “First quarter revenue, profitability, and EPS all finished above the midpoint of our outlook… our outlook for double-digit year-over-year growth in our second quarter builds my confidence that 2025 will be a year of growth.”
  • CFO: “First quarter gross margin was 68.8%, up 90 basis points sequentially, driven by favorable product mix… adjusted EPS was $1.63, at the high end of our guided range.”
  • On inventory/channel: “Channel weeks moved lower and remained below our target of 7 to 8 weeks… guidance for Q2 has us shipping to sell-through, so not adding into the channel.”
  • On AI exposure: “Our high-precision electrooptical controller is now shipping in a 1.6 terabit optical module for AI systems… we’ll begin shipping our vertical power solutions later in this year.”
  • On capital returns: “We announced an 8% increase to our quarterly dividend to $0.99… our Board has authorized an incremental $10 billion for share repurchases… roughly $11.5 billion remaining.”

Q&A Highlights

  • Auto strength led by China: ADI has stronger share/content at major Chinese EV OEMs (video/audio connectivity, safety power, BMS); momentum expected to continue into Q2 .
  • Industrial recovery details: three straight quarters of sequential growth; Q2 expected to be the fastest-growing end market; broad market pick-up drove upside vs initial expectations .
  • Channel strategy: Q2 guide assumes shipping to sell-through (no channel restock near term); operating comfortably below 7–8 week channel target while carrying more die bank inventory for responsiveness .
  • Data center/AI pipeline: 1.6T optical controllers shipping; vertical power enters production in 2H CY25 with hyperscaler; additional designs expected in 2026 .
  • Manufacturing resiliency: by late ’26/early ’27, ≥95% of products to have at least dual sources; capacity roughly doubled vs pre-pandemic; geographic desensitization ongoing .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global consensus estimates for Q1 and Q2 were not retrievable at the time of analysis due to an S&P Global request limit. As a result, we cannot quantify beats/misses versus S&P consensus for this quarter and instead anchor to company guidance and reported actuals [GetEstimates error].
  • Where relevant, management signaled results were above guidance midpoints, and Q2 guidance implies double-digit y/y growth and sequential improvement in Industrial and Automotive .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Setup improving: positive book-to-bill, normalized customer inventories, and below-target channel weeks underpin sequential growth and double-digit y/y guidance for Q2—supportive for near-term estimate and multiple stability .
  • Margin resilience: adjusted GM at 68.8% with steady ~40.5% adjusted operating margin amid recovery suggests mix/discipline can sustain premium profitability through the upturn .
  • AI leverage emerging: tangible content in AI optical modules and imminent vertical power ramps with a hyperscaler indicate incremental, higher-quality growth vectors beyond core cyclical recovery .
  • Capital return accelerant: 8% dividend hike and $10B buyback authorization (≈$11.5B remaining) provide downside support and a potential stock reaction catalyst, reinforcing 100% FCF return philosophy .
  • Watch industrial trajectory: management expects Industrial to lead Q2 growth; broad market firming and potential channel normalization create tailwinds if macro holds .
  • Monitor auto/China dynamics: strong content/share at Chinese EV OEMs is boosting results; sustained momentum mitigates macro risk but warrants monitoring for policy/tariff shifts .
  • Near-term risk checks: consumer seasonality, continued wireless weakness within Communications, and elevated on-hand inventory (176 DOI) could temper upside if macro/geopolitical volatility resurfaces .