Sign in

    ANALOG DEVICES (ADI)

    ADI Q2 2025: Auto Up 16% on Pull-In; Q3 Shipments to Match True Demand

    Reported on Jun 16, 2025
    Pre-Earnings Price$228.13Open (Jun 16, 2025)
    Post-Earnings Price$227.44Last close (Jun 17, 2025)
    Price Change
    $-0.69(-0.30%)
    • Robust Order Backlog & Normalizing Demand: Management highlighted strong Q2 bookings and a recovery in industrial and automotive segments, with expectations that Q3 shipments will reflect genuine end demand as pull-forward effects dissipate ** **.
    • Favorable Trends in Robotics & Automation: Executives emphasized long‐term growth potential in robotics and advanced automation—driven by rising demand for tactile, edge-intelligent systems that could significantly boost content per unit over the next 5–10 years .
    • Resilient Business Model & Strategic Capacity Investments: The discussion pointed to a solid book-to-bill ratio above 1 across industrial subsectors and strategic flexibility in internal and external manufacturing investments, underscoring ADI’s ability to meet growing market demands ** **.
    • Automotive pull-forward risk: The Q&A revealed that a significant part of Q2’s automotive growth was driven by temporary pull-in activity due to tariff announcements. This raises concerns that once the pull-forward effect normalizes, automotive revenue could see a decline or flattening in subsequent quarters.
    • Normalization of undershipped industrial shipments: Executives noted that industrial shipments remain about 10% below underlying consumption due to prolonged undershipping. As inventory levels normalize, this could lead to lower order volumes and a slowdown in industrial revenue growth.
    • Rising operating expenses pressure margins: Increased variable compensation and scheduled annual salary hikes, as discussed in the Q&A, could continue to offset savings from operating leverage, potentially limiting margin expansion despite revenue growth.
    MetricYoY ChangeReason

    Total Revenue

    22% increase (from $2.16B in Q2 2024 to $2.64B in Q2 2025)

    A strong rebound in demand across core segments—in particular, notable share gains in Automotive, Communications, and Consumer—helped reverse the prior period’s softness. Compared to earlier periods that saw declines (e.g., Q1 2025’s 4% drop), these improvements have contributed to robust top‐line growth.

    Operating Income

    75% increase (from $386.1M in Q2 2024 to $677.9M in Q2 2025)

    Improved operational efficiency and a favorable revenue mix drove a significant increase in operating income. The operating leverage effect is evident when compared to previously lower margins seen in earlier quarters, as better demand and cost management combine to produce a 75% jump.

    Net Income

    88% increase (from $302.2M in Q2 2024 to $569.8M in Q2 2025)

    The leap in net income reflects both the higher operating income and improvements in nonoperating factors such as lower relative interest expense and favorable tax provisions. This contrasts with earlier periods where weaker revenue and margin pressures suppressed net income, making the current 88% jump a notable turnaround.

    Basic EPS

    Nearly doubled (from 0.61 in Q2 2024 to 1.15 in Q2 2025)

    Stronger profitability and improved margins—evidenced by the jumps in both operating and net income—translated into a nearly 100% increase in EPS. This marks a significant recovery compared to past periods when EPS was under pressure from lower revenues and higher costs.

    Automotive Revenue

    29% increase (from $658.2M in Q2 2024 to $849.5M in Q2 2025)

    Robust gains in the Automotive segment were driven by strong demand in Asia (especially from Chinese EV OEMs), improved share gains, and growth in connectivity and functionally safe power solutions. This positive trend builds on previous quarter performance that already showed strength in the Automotive market.

    Communications Revenue

    31% increase (from $240.8M in Q2 2024 to $315.1M in Q2 2025)

    Enhanced investments in 5G infrastructure and the surge in AI-driven data center build-outs boosted the Communications segment. This improvement contrasts with previous periods where depressed demand (as seen in Q1 2024) weighed on this segment, thereby contributing to a 31% growth now.

    Consumer Revenue

    29% increase (from $245.2M in Q2 2024 to $317.8M in Q2 2025)

    Gaining market share in a recovering consumer market drove the 29% increase in Consumer revenue. This improvement further reflects a turnaround from earlier quarters where Consumer revenue had been weak due to sluggish end demand.

    Other Segment

    7.5% decrease (from $37.1M in Q2 2024 to $34.2M in Q2 2025)

    The slight decline in the Other segment indicates a contraction in non-core revenue, which contrasts with the stronger performances seen in the main segments. This may reflect strategic shifts and a concentration of efforts on higher-growth areas, building upon past periods where such categories received less emphasis.

    MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange

    Revenue ($USD Billions)

    Q3 2025

    $2.5 billion ± $100 million

    $2.75 billion ± $0.10

    raised

    Operating Margin (%)

    Q3 2025

    40.5% ± 100 basis points

    41.5% ± 1.0

    raised

    Tax Rate (%)

    Q3 2025

    11% to 13%

    11–13%

    no change

    Adjusted EPS ($USD)

    Q3 2025

    $1.68 ± $0.10

    $1.92 ± $0.10

    raised

    MetricPeriodGuidanceActualPerformance
    Revenue
    Q2 2025
    $2.5B ± $0.1B
    $2,640.1M
    Beat
    Operating Margin
    Q2 2025
    40.5% ± 100 bps
    25.7% (calculated from 677,944 / 2,640,068)
    Missed
    Tax Rate
    Q2 2025
    11% – 13%
    9.0% (calculated from 56,158 / 625,928)
    Beat
    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    Automotive Market Dynamics

    Previously discussed with modest sequential gains in Q1 2025 , strong demand in China and supply‐side pull‐ins in Q4 2024 , and near-term softness with inventory digestion in Q3 2024.

    Q2 2025 delivered a record result with 32% revenue share, a 16% sequential and 24% YoY increase driven by tariff pull-in activity and robust growth in China.

    Improved sentiment in Q2 after earlier modest gains and near-term softness; strong sequential recovery with caution for Q3.

    Industrial Demand Recovery and Inventory Normalization

    Across Q1 2025 , Q4 2024 and Q3 2024 , the narrative emphasized steady sequential improvements, reduced channel inventory and signs of normalization, with consistent recovery signals.

    Q2 2025 continued the positive trend with industrial representing 44% of revenue, showing solid sequential and YoY growth and a strategy to balance lean channel inventories with higher on‐book levels.

    Consistent recovery and normalization across periods with steady improvements in demand and inventory management.

    Robust Order Backlog and Design Win Pipeline

    Q1 2025 featured strong emphasis on order backlog and design wins fueling growth. Q4 2024 noted a record design win pipeline and Q3 2024 highlighted a healthy own‐book backlog and robust design wins.

    In Q2 2025, there were strong signals from improved bookings and a growing backlog entering Q3; although explicit design win pipeline details were not provided, the overall order trends remained positive.

    Steady and sustained positive momentum; consistent strong backlog and design wins continue to underpin growth even as explicit mentions become less detailed in Q2.

    Battery Management Systems Innovation and Recovery

    Q1 2025 indicated BMS was poised for growth with higher wireless solution wins. Q4 2024 provided detailed discussion on innovation, design wins and recovery across regions. Q3 2024 covered BMS tech for grid storage and noted inventory digestion.

    No specific mention in Q2 2025.

    Reduced emphasis in Q2 2025 compared to previous periods; may indicate a pause in focus or integration into broader automotive themes.

    New Product Innovations Driving Higher ASPs

    Q1 2025 highlighted that new products were capturing higher ASPs and pulling legacy products. Q4 2024 provided multiple examples in data centers, automotive, and consumer segments. Q3 2024 reiterated the high-end market focus and stable pricing.

    Q2 2025 discussed innovations driving higher ASPs across megatrends such as healthcare, automotive, autonomy and AI computing, with products achieving ASPs 4x the industry average.

    Strong, consistent focus and positive sentiment; the narrative remains upbeat on innovation boosting ASPs, building on trends noted in previous periods.

    Software and Digital Transformation Initiatives

    Q3 2024 detailed growing digital and algorithmic capabilities and software-defined sensor systems. Q4 2024 had extensive discussion on CodeFusion Studio, cybersecurity (ADI Assure) and digital customer engagement. Q1 2025 mentioned software-defined connectivity solutions.

    Q2 2025 did not specifically mention software or digital transformation initiatives.

    Reduced emphasis in Q2 2025 compared to a strong focus in Q3 and Q4 2024; indicates a potential temporary shift away from digital priorities.

    Growth in Robotics and Advanced Automation

    Q1 2025 noted growth in industrial automation and surgical robotics. Q4 2024 referenced Industry 4.0 trends increasing robotics content by 3x. Q3 2024 discussed evolution from fixed to humanoid robots and advanced automation benefits.

    Q2 2025 emphasized robotics at an inflection point driven by AI and noted strong industrial automation growth with rising design activity and capability enhancements.

    Continued robust growth; sentiment remains upbeat with increasing focus on AI-driven robotics and automation, reflecting a mature and expanding opportunity.

    Emerging AI-Driven Infrastructure and High-Speed Interfaces

    Q1 2025 highlighted a growing pipeline in AI infrastructure via optical modules and power technologies. Q4 2024 provided insights on innovative hot swap solutions for AI servers and development in test capabilities. Q3 2024 discussed ATE improvements for AI applications.

    Q2 2025 underlined the impact of AI through accelerated demand in ATE and data centers, with high-speed interface solutions addressing connectivity and power challenges.

    Steady and strong focus, with consistent messaging on AI-driven growth and high-speed connectivity; the narrative remains uniformly positive.

    Geopolitical and Economic Uncertainty Impact

    Q1 2025 acknowledged geopolitical turmoil and diversification strategies. Q3 2024 noted that challenging geopolitical and economic conditions limited demand recovery. Q4 2024 indirectly mentioned macro challenges through inventory digestion cycles.

    Q2 2025 discussed the impact of tariffs leading to pull-in activity in automotive and noted that industrial customers were steady amid uncertainty, while emphasizing supply chain resilience.

    Cautiously optimistic; while uncertainty remains a factor across periods, Q2 2025 reflects mixed effects—short-term pull-ins in automotive but a steadier industrial outlook, suggesting gradual stabilization.

    Margin Pressure and Operating Expense Concerns

    Q1 2025 reported improved gross margins and modest operating expense increases. Q3 2024 detailed sequential gross margin improvements with controlled OpEx despite bonus and merit increases. Q4 2024 discussed mix headwinds and higher OpEx from merit increases.

    Q2 2025 showed a gross margin of 69.4% (up sequentially) with operating expenses rising due to variable compensation; outlook remains positive with anticipated operating leverage and marginal effects from salary increases.

    Improving margins and controlled expense growth over time; the current period reflects higher utilization and improved gross margin, though variable compensation remains a near-term factor.

    Competitive Pressure from Indigenous Suppliers

    Q1 2025 mentioned competitive pressure in mid-to-low performance segments. Q3 2024 and Q4 2024 did not address this topic explicitly.

    Q2 2025 did not contain any mention of competitive pressure from indigenous suppliers.

    Diminished focus; while previously noted in Q1 2025, the topic has dropped out in later periods, possibly indicating reduced emphasis or concern.

    Declining Emphasis on Communications Sector

    Q3 2024 and Q4 2024 described mixed results with sequential improvements but overall challenges (especially in wireless). Q1 2025 noted stable growth in wireline and challenges in wireless.

    Q2 2025 reported communications revenue at 12% of quarterly revenue, with sequential and YoY gains driven by wireline and data center demand, while wireless remained weaker.

    Shift towards recovery; while earlier periods flagged weaknesses (especially in wireless), Q2 2025 reflects a recovery in wireline driven by AI build-outs, suggesting a rebalancing rather than a de-emphasis of the sector.

    1. Margin Outlook
      Q: Why are margins flat amid rising OpEx?
      A: Management explained that although OpEx increased due to higher variable compensation and salary hikes, operating margins improved in Q2 and are expected to benefit from better operating leverage in Q3 and fiscal '26, especially with industrial leading growth.

    2. Normalized Demand
      Q: Are Q3 shipments reflecting true demand?
      A: Management indicated that after a pull-in boost in Q2, Q3 orders are normalizing, with shipments now matching true end-demand in both auto and industrial sectors.

    3. Demand Environment
      Q: Will SAAR decline affect demand numbers?
      A: Management expects auto SAAR to decline in the second half while content growth offsets some pressure, and observed that industrial shipments are now aligning with actual customer demand.

    4. Industrial Under Shipping
      Q: What’s the under shipping percentage in industrial?
      A: Management noted that shipments remain roughly 10% below the low-end consumption, expecting a return to balanced, end-demand shipping by Q3.

    5. Automotive Pull-In
      Q: Is auto growth driven by pull-in orders?
      A: Management acknowledged that the 16% sequential growth in auto partly reflects a high single-digit pull-in effect around tariff news, with expectations for normalization in Q3.

    6. Industrial Automation
      Q: Has industrial automation grown sequentially?
      A: Management confirmed sequential growth in industrial automation, supported by a book-to-bill ratio above 1 despite tariff uncertainties.

    7. Robotics Opportunity
      Q: What is the outlook for robotics?
      A: Executives highlighted evolving opportunities in robotics, forecasting significant long-term content upside driven by enhanced edge intelligence over the next 5–10 years.

    8. Industrial Restock
      Q: Is industrial recovery due to restocking?
      A: Management clarified that increasing industrial orders are from net new demand rather than restocking, signaling a genuine recovery from previous lean inventories.

    9. Foundry Strategy
      Q: How is the foundry strategy evolving?
      A: Executives emphasized a balanced approach, noting that they now have over 2× internal capacity to support key nodes while complementing external foundry partnerships for finer geometries, ensuring geographic flexibility.

    Research analysts covering ANALOG DEVICES.