ADMA BIOLOGICS, INC. (ADMA)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

• Q4 2024 delivered strong top-line and margin expansion: revenue $117.5M (+59% YoY), gross margin 54.0% (+1,190 bps YoY), GAAP diluted EPS $0.46 (vs. $(0.08) prior year), and Adjusted EBITDA $48.3M (+160% YoY), driven by a higher-mix of immunoglobulin (IG) sales, especially ASCENIV, and manufacturing cost reductions .
• FY25/26 guidance raised: revenue to >$490M and >$605M; Adjusted EBITDA to >$225M and >$305M; and new Adjusted Net Income guidance to >$175M and >$235M, respectively; management reiterates potential to exceed $1B annual revenue prior to 2030 .
• Strategic supply/capacity catalysts: executed long-term high‑titer plasma contracts expanding access to ~250 collection centers (5x capacity) and PAS submitted for a yield‑enhancement process (≈20% more IG per plasma) with anticipated FDA approval mid‑2025—potentially accretive in 2H25 .
• Balance sheet strengthening continues: ~$48M operating cash flow in Q4, YE cash >$103M, and total debt reduced to $75M via $60M organic paydown in 2H24; ADMA now in a net cash surplus relative to debt .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• Record ASCENIV demand and expanding new patient pipeline: “the queue of prospective patients is growing,” with onboarding expected to accelerate as third‑party plasma ramps; management sees “depth and breadth … at the same institutions” .
• Margin trajectory remains robust: corporate GM reached 54.0% in Q4, and management reiterated ASCENIV gross margins of 80%–85%+ pre‑yield enhancement; yield gains of ~20% expected to be highly accretive to margins after approval .
• Balance sheet and liquidity improved: ~$48M Q4 operating cash flow, YE cash >$103M, and $60M debt paid down organically in 2H24, leaving $75M of debt outstanding; management cites a net cash surplus vs. debt .

What Went Wrong

• Audit timing and 10‑K delay: the company filed a 12b‑25 to extend the FY24 10‑K filing (new big‑4 auditor KPMG in Q4 2024) to complete internal control testing and audit procedures .
• Elevated Q4 operating spend: management increased medical education/marketing and prepared inventories to support ramp; they guided that normalized OpEx run-rate should be lower than Q4 .
• Execution risk on regulatory/supply milestones: yield enhancement remains pending FDA approval (target mid‑2025), and scaling third‑party plasma contracts is ongoing, though management commentary remains confident .

Financial Results

P&L – Sequential and YoY

Notes: Q4 YoY margin expansion driven by a more favorable mix of higher‑margin IG products and reduced manufacturing costs .

Non‑GAAP – YoY comparison

Non‑GAAP reconciliation excludes items such as deferred tax benefit, loss on extinguishment of debt, stock‑based comp, and certain non‑recurring expenses .

Cash, Working Capital and Leverage Highlights

Actual vs. Consensus (Q4 2024)

Consensus estimates could not be retrieved at this time (S&P Global request limit).

Guidance Changes

Management reiterated that FY25 guidance excludes yield‑enhancement benefits; FY26 reflects heavily risk‑adjusted yield enhancement .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Management Commentary

• “We now expect total revenue to exceed $490 million in 2025 and $605 million in 2026… Adjusted net income… >$175 million and >$235 million, respectively.”
• On plasma supply ramp: “These long‑term agreements allow the company to source high‑titer plasma from approximately 250 U.S.‑based third‑party plasma collection centers… fivefold increase in total collection capacity.”
• On yield enhancement: “increase production output by approximately 20% from the same starting plasma volume… well prepared to swiftly implement… potentially in the second half of 2025.”
• On ASCENIV margin profile: “ASCENIV’s gross margins… 80%, 85% plus… nothing that we see… that’s going to impact our ability to deliver these 80‑plus percent gross margins…”
• On audit/controls: “we feel confident that our reported financials are accurate and we do not anticipate any changes… once the 10‑K is filed on or before March 18, 2025.”

Q&A Highlights

• Supply ramp cadence: more than 50% of third‑party centers onboarded; testing throughput expanding; potential upside to 2026 if trends hold .
• Patient onboarding: a “growing queue” of qualified patients; increased ASCENIV starts expected as plasma and production slots expand .
• Guidance mechanics: FY25 guidance excludes yield enhancement; FY26 guidance heavily risk‑adjusts yield; opportunity for upside with approvals/collections .
• Margin outlook: ASCENIV 80–85%+ GM pre‑yield; yield gains outpace related investments; margin expansion a central objective .
• Working capital/capital structure: yield enhancement may lift inventory modestly; intent to be opportunistic with rising cash generation, including potential debt optimization .
• Regulatory: no pre‑approval inspection expected at this time; active and constructive FDA dialogue for mid‑2025 approval .

Estimates Context

• We attempted to retrieve S&P Global consensus for Q4 2024 revenue and EPS, but data could not be fetched at this time (request limit). As such, we cannot definitively characterize beat/miss versus consensus for Q4 2024. Estimates may require upward revisions given Q4 outperformance, margin expansion, and raised FY25/26 guidance .

Key Takeaways for Investors

• ASCENIV-driven mix shift and disciplined cost control are expanding margins; corporate GM reached 54.0% in Q4 and ASCENIV GM remains 80–85%+ pre‑yield .
• Medium‑term catalysts are tangible: long‑term high‑titer plasma contracts (~250 centers) de‑risk supply and new patient starts; yield enhancement (~20% more IG) targeted for mid‑2025 approval with 2H25 accretion .
• Guidance momentum continues: revenue, Adjusted EBITDA, and new Adjusted NI targets all raised for FY25/26; management reiterates >$1B revenue potential before 2030 .
• Balance sheet improving: robust Q4 cash generation, YE cash >$103M, and debt reduced to $75M support further cost‑of‑capital optimization and growth investments .
• Watch the 10‑K filing (process delay disclosed) and FDA timing on yield; either could be near‑term stock catalysts alongside ongoing ASCENIV uptake and supply ramp .
• If demand and supply trends persist, consensus models will likely need to reflect higher revenue/margin trajectories, particularly into 2026 with yield‑enhanced output .

Additional source documents used for trend analysis and context:

• Q3 2024 8‑K and call: revenue $119.8M (+78% YoY); normalized GM mid‑50s ex low‑margin plasma sale; raised FY24/25 guidance; KPMG appointed .
• Q2 2024 8‑K: revenue $107.2M (+78% YoY); GM 53.6%; initial yield‑enhancement commentary (~20%); raised FY24/25 guidance .
• Dec 20, 2024 release: $30M term‑loan paydown, total debt to $75M .
• Jan 13, 2025 release: preliminary FY24 revenue $417–$425M; FY25/26 outlook raised; PAS submitted for yield process .