AMEREN CORP (AEE) Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

Q1 2025 EPS of $1.07 grew 9% YoY (GAAP and adjusted), driven by increased infrastructure investment, colder weather boosting Missouri retail sales, and lower O&M in Illinois Gas; Ameren reaffirmed FY 2025 EPS guidance of $4.85–$5.05 .
Results modestly beat S&P Global consensus: EPS $1.07 vs $1.065* and revenue $2.10B vs $1.91B*, with the top line benefiting from stronger electric and gas revenues; management continues to target delivering at the “midpoint or higher” of FY25 guidance . Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Strategic momentum and policy tailwinds: constructive Missouri electric rate review settlement effective June 1, 2025, data center construction agreements increased to ~2.3 GW, and Missouri’s SB4 extends/expands PISA and accelerates generation project review—supporting a robust capex pipeline and 6–8% EPS CAGR outlook through 2029 .
Financing substantially progressed: >80% of 2025 debt financings completed, with ~$600M in 2025 equity expected (≈$535M already sold forward under ATM) to support investment while protecting ratings (S&P BBB+) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Execution and demand: “We made great strides” with Q1 EPS up to $1.07 vs adj. $1.02 in 1Q24; Missouri weather-normalized TTM retail sales +~3% and data center pipeline strengthened with signed construction agreements rising to ~2.3 GW (+500 MW QoQ) .
Regulatory/Legislative wins: Missouri PSC approved a constructive electric rate review settlement in April; Missouri SB4 expands/extends PISA to 2035, enables CWIP for qualifying generation, and accelerates IRP review—improving speed-to-invest and regulatory lag .
Reliability/operations: Grid hardening performed “exceptionally well”; >114,000 customer outages prevented via smart switching during major storms in Q1—more than any full year since 2021 tracking began .

What Went Wrong

Higher costs: Interest expense headwinds at Parent and Ameren Missouri weighed on EPS; storm-related costs in Missouri also increased .
Parent drag: Ameren Parent swung from a $2M profit to a $13M loss YoY on higher interest expense .
Tariff uncertainty: Management flagged proposed trade tariffs; exposure deemed “very manageable” (~2% of the $26B five-year plan pre-mitigation), though batteries are the most exposed vertical—teams have pre-positioned solar equipment to avoid recent tariff impacts .

Financial Results

P&L vs Prior Periods

Metric	Q3 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
Total Operating Revenues ($USD B)	$2.173	$1.941	$2.097
Operating Income ($USD B)	$0.586	$0.198	$0.430
Net Income Attrib. to Common ($USD B)	$0.456	$0.207	$0.289
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)	$1.70	$0.77	$1.07
Adjusted Diluted EPS ($)	$1.87	$0.77 (no adj.)	$1.07 (no adj.)
Operating Margin (%)	27.0% (586/2,173)	10.2% (198/1,941)	20.5% (430/2,097)
Net Margin (%)	21.0% (456/2,173)	10.7% (207/1,941)	13.8% (289/2,097)

YoY: Revenue +15.5% (Q1 2025: $2.097B vs $1.816B) and EPS +9% (GAAP: $1.07 vs $0.98; adjusted: $1.07 vs $1.02) .
Seq: EPS rose sharply vs Q4 on typical seasonal uplift and rate/cost dynamics .

Segment Earnings (Income) – Q1 2025 vs Q1 2024

Segment	Q1 2025 ($MM)	Q1 2024 GAAP ($MM)	Q1 2024 Adjusted ($MM)
Ameren Missouri	42	25	36
Ameren Transmission	89	72	72
Ameren Illinois Electric Distribution	63	56	56
Ameren Illinois Natural Gas	108	106	106
Ameren Parent	(13)	2	2

Electric Revenues by Segment – Q1 2025 vs Q1 2024

Category	Q1 2025 ($MM)	Q1 2024 ($MM)
Ameren Missouri – total electric revenues	893	714
Ameren Illinois Electric Distribution – total electric revenues	572	506
Ameren Transmission – total	210	185
Other & intersegment eliminations	(53)	(41)
Ameren Total Electric Revenues	1,622	1,364

KPIs (Volumes, Shares)

KPI	Q1 2025	Q1 2024
Electric Sales – Ameren total (kWh, millions)	17,808	17,140
Gas Sales – Ameren total (dekatherms, millions)	74	68
Weighted-average diluted shares (MM)	271.4	266.8

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Diluted EPS	FY 2025	$4.85–$5.05 (Nov 6, 2024 initiation)	$4.85–$5.05 (reaffirmed May 1, 2025)	Maintained
EPS CAGR	2025–2029	6%–8% (Feb 13, 2025)	6%–8% reiterated on Q1 call	Maintained
Dividend	Quarterly	$0.71 declared Oct 11, 2024 (prior)	$0.71 declared for Jun 30, 2025 payment	Maintained

Note: No explicit updates provided for revenue, margin, OpEx, OI&E or tax rate guidance in Q1 materials.

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q-2: Q3’24)	Previous Mentions (Q-1: Q4’24)	Current Period (Q1’25)	Trend
Data center/AI-driven load	Doubling pipeline; 350 MW signed across sectors; IRP update planned	FY guidance affirmed; IRP change filed; sales growth outlook	Signed construction agreements up to ~2.3 GW (+500 MW QoQ); planning rate construct for large loads; $26M deposits for transmission upgrades	Increasing
Missouri legislation/regulation	PSC approved CCN for 800 MW Castle Bluff; LRTP Tranche 2.1 detail	Constructive settlement expectations and guidance affirmed	SB4 enacted: PISA extended/expanded, modified IRP, CWIP authority; April PSC electric settlement; new rates June 1	Improving
Tariffs/supply chain	Equipment pre-positioning, multiyear solar adds	—	Tariff exposure ~2% of $26B plan pre-mitigation; battery most exposed; major solar equipment already in U.S. pre-April 2 tariffs	Manageable
Financing/ratings	2024 ATM forward set; investment-grade balance sheet (Baa1/BBB+)	FY25 EPS/plan affirmed	>80% of 2025 debt completed; ~$600M 2025 equity expected; S&P affirmed BBB+	Stable
IRA tax credits/transferability	Value to customers highlighted	—	Transferability critical; ~<$300M credits in 2025; manageable cash flows even if changes; prioritize customer affordability	Watching DC
MISO LRTP	Tranche 2.1 details; ~$3.6B in AEE territories	—	Bidding for $6.5B competitive projects through 2026; Tranche 2.2 identification could begin Dec 2025	Building

Management Commentary

“We remain on track to deliver within our 2025 earnings guidance range of $4.85 to $5.05 per share.” — Martin J. Lyons, Jr., CEO .
“In April, the Missouri commission approved a constructive settlement in our electric rate review... New rates will be effective on June 1.” — Michael Moehn, CFO .
“We now have signed construction agreements with data center developers representing a total of approximately 2.3 gigawatts of future demand… developers… submitting nonrefundable payments totaling $26 million.” — Management .
“We have prevented more than 114,000 customer outages through smart switching during major storms… more than any full year since we began tracking these statistics in 2021.” — Management .
“Tariffs… exposure… could be about 2% [of $26B five-year capex] before any mitigation… Most [exposure] tied up in battery projects.” — CFO .

Q&A Highlights

Data center trajectory: Incremental +500 MW QoQ to ~2.3 GW of signed construction agreements; IRP resource plan viewed as adequate for up to ~2 GW by 2030, with ramp timing to be clarified via service agreements and rate construct filing at MoPSC in 2Q .
IRA transferability: Management advocates maintaining tax credits and transferability; credits estimated at just under $300M in 2025; cash flows and ratings metrics viewed as manageable even under adverse scenarios .
Tariffs: Aggregate impact estimated at ~2% of the five-year $26B plan pre-mitigation; limited near-term solar impact due to pre-positioned imports; battery procurement is the main area of exposure .
Generation projects: Castle Bluff 800 MW simple cycle gas cost est. ~$900M; additional gas and CC procurement underway to secure long-lead equipment and schedule .
Equity/debt: >80% of 2025 debt financing completed; ~$600M equity issuance expected in 2025 (≈$535M already sold forward) to support capex and preserve ratings buffers .

Estimates Context

Metric	Actual	S&P Global Consensus	Surprise
EPS (Q1 2025)	$1.07	$1.0650*	+0.5%
Revenue (Q1 2025)	$2.097B	$1.9085B*	+9.9%

Estimate counts: EPS – 11 ests*; Revenue – 5 ests* (Q1 2025). Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Implications: modest EPS beat and sizable top-line beat suggest upside from weather and rate/volume dynamics, while higher interest expense and storms partly offset .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Reaffirmed FY25 guide with a small EPS beat and strong revenue outperformance; management intent remains to deliver at the midpoint or higher of the range .
Legislative and regulatory tailwinds (SB4/PISA extension, constructive Missouri rate settlement) improve visibility for accelerated generation and grid investment — supportive of 6–8% EPS CAGR through 2029 .
Data center demand is materializing quickly (now ~2.3 GW of signed construction agreements), with a 2Q filing for a large-load rate construct and $26M in deposits already received — a clear medium-term growth catalyst .
Financing plan advanced: >80% of 2025 debt completed, equity plan de-risked via ATM forwards; S&P affirmed BBB+, maintaining balance sheet flexibility amid robust capex .
Tariff exposure manageable (~2% of capex pre-mitigation), with proactive sourcing blunting near-term solar impacts; focus shifts to battery sourcing strategy .
Watch for MoPSC approval of large-load rate construct (potentially by year-end), MISO LRTP Tranche 2.1 bid outcomes, and further IRP updates as load clarity progresses — each a stock narrative catalyst .
Near-term trading skew: constructive policy/regulatory momentum and visible capex runway vs. macro/IRA/tariff uncertainties; estimate revisions likely modestly upward on top-line beat and reaffirmed FY outlook .

Note: Asterisked estimate values are from S&P Global consensus. Values retrieved from S&P Global.