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AETHLON MEDICAL INC (AEMD)·Q4 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Fiscal Q4 2025 centered on clinical execution: three oncology patients completed single 4‑hour Hemopurifier treatments with no device deficiencies; DSMB review is imminent to advance to two‑treatment cohort .
  • Operating discipline continued: FY25 operating expenses fell ~26% to ~$9.3M vs ~$12.6M in FY24; cash was ~$5.5M at Mar 31, 2025 .
  • EPS missed Wall Street in Q4: S&P Global consensus EPS was -$10.90 vs actual about -$37.00; prior quarter (Q3) was a beat (-$16.27 est. vs -$10.40 actual) (values with asterisk from S&P Global).
  • Near‑term catalysts: DSMB decision in July and preliminary EV/T‑cell data from the first cohort expected ~three months post‑third patient; India regulator (CDSCO) approved similar oncology study at Medanta, positioning for faster enrollment .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Treated first three oncology patients in Australia; all tolerated single 4‑hour Hemopurifier sessions “without device deficiencies or immediate complications,” triggering DSMB review to advance cohorts .
  • Protocol expanded to include combination therapy with pembrolizumab/nivolumab to align with standard of care, broadening the eligible patient pool .
  • Preclinical data showed 98.5% removal of platelet‑derived EVs in an ex vivo 4‑hour session, reinforcing mechanism and multi‑indication potential; management cited this as “the most forward progress in the clinic and in the lab since I joined the company” .

What Went Wrong

  • Q4 EPS sharply missed consensus due to non‑cash warrant inducement charge (~$4.6M) and development‑stage losses; management highlighted the one‑time nature of executive separation/severance costs winding down (values with asterisk from S&P Global; warrant commentary cited) .
  • Enrollment pace has been deliberate; DSMB must meet between cohorts, potentially gating speed; management expects cohort‑to‑cohort DSMB reviews before advancing to 2‑ and 3‑treatment weeks .
  • Ongoing need for external funding until grants/partnering are achieved; management explicitly noted additional equity financing may be required absent non‑dilutive awards .

Financial Results

Quarterly P&L and Cash (oldest → newest)

MetricQ4 2025Q1 2026Q2 2026
Net Income ($USD)$(6,254,893)*$(1,761,858)*$(1,487,100)*
Diluted EPS - Continuing Ops ($)$(34.41)*$(8.49)*$(3.74)*
Total Operating Expenses ($USD)$2,003,963*$1,792,390*$1,476,525*
Cash and Equivalents ($USD)$5,501,261 $3,765,154*$5,853,493*

Values with asterisk retrieved from S&P Global.

Estimates vs. Actuals (S&P Global; oldest → newest)

MetricQ2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025
Primary EPS Consensus Mean ($)$(15.60)*$(16.27)*$(10.90)*
Primary EPS Actual ($)$(16.00)*$(10.40)*$(37.00)*
EPS SurpriseMiss $(0.40)*Beat $5.87*Miss $(26.10)*
Revenue Consensus Mean ($MM)$0.00*$0.00*$0.00*
Revenue Actual ($MM)n/an/an/a
# of EPS Estimates2*3*2*
# of Revenue Estimates2*3*2*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Note: Company is pre‑revenue; quarterly revenue not disclosed in the cited materials.

KPIs and Operating Highlights (Q4 FY25)

KPIValueSource
Oncology patients treated (first cohort)3 patients; single 4‑hour treatment each; no immediate complications
DSMB timingFirst DSMB review set in July to advance to two‑treatment cohort
Preliminary EV/T‑cell dataExpected ~3 months after third patient in first cohort
India oncology trial statusCDSCO approval granted; site initiation visit next
FY25 Operating Expenses~$9.3M (down ~26% YoY)
FY25 Non‑cash warrant inducement~$4.6M charge
Cash (Mar 31, 2025)~$5.5M

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Financial guidance (Revenue, EPS, OpEx)FY25/Q4 FY25None disclosedNone disclosedMaintained: no formal guidance
Clinical milestonesFY25/Q4 FY25DSMB post‑cohort 1 (anticipated)DSMB meeting set in July; preliminary EV/T‑cell data ~3 months post‑cohortClarified timeline

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 FY25)Previous Mentions (Q3 FY25)Current Period (Q4 FY25)Trend
Oncology trial executionEnrolled first two patients; two AU sites open; focus on safety/feasibility -First patient treated; protocol amendments to accelerate enrollment and include broader regimens Three patients treated; DSMB review; pathway to 2‑ and 3‑treatment cohorts Improving execution, increasing cadence
Protocol optimizationAligning with evolving SOC; AU sites activated; India ethics approval Amendment removes two‑month run‑in; broadens eligibility; lifts certain restrictions -Combination therapy inclusion; larger Sydney site recruiting More inclusive, faster screening
Regulatory (India)Medanta HREC approval; preparing logistics Awaiting CDSCO approval amid documentation changes -CDSCO approval received; SIV planned Positive inflection
Long COVID collaborationn/an/aUCSF collaboration poster accepted; mannosylated EV binding data to be presented - Expanding optionality (early stage)
Cost discipline$2.9M OpEx in Q2; legal and consulting reductions -Q3 OpEx down ~50% YoY; staffing/separation costs run off FY OpEx down ~26% YoY; executive severance winding down Structural improvement
Non‑GAAP/one‑time itemsn/an/a~$4.6M non‑cash warrant inducement charge Non‑recurring; distorts EPS

Management Commentary

  • “We treated the first three patients in our oncology trial… each participant received a single four‑hour Hemopurifier treatment without device deficiencies or immediate complications” .
  • “We expanded our trial protocol to allow enrollment of patients receiving combination therapies with either pembrolizumab… or nivolumab… should help us reach a broader patient pool” .
  • “On May 12th, we showed that the Hemopurifier… removed 98.5% of platelet‑derived extracellular vesicles” .
  • “I’ve never seen this much forward progress in the clinic and in the lab since I joined the company” .
  • “We raised approximately $2.3 million in cash through this warrant inducement offer… Because it was a non‑cash charge, it did not impact the net worth on our balance sheet” .

Q&A Highlights

  • Focus prioritization: Oncology remains “almost entirely” the focus; Long COVID collaboration is opportunistic and could be pursued if non‑dilutive funding emerges .
  • Cohort cadence and DSMB gates: DSMB to meet between each cohort; management expects faster recruitment with three hospitals and larger Sydney catchment; aiming to line up patients pre‑approval .
  • India protocol: Initially monotherapy per original approval; hospital is capable and familiar with device; potential to consider amendments later -.
  • Timeline: Australia could complete remaining ~6 patients at ~1/month with write‑up in 9–12 months; India timing TBD as site ramps .
  • Funding outlook: Likely need additional equity until grants/partnering; management experienced with prior DARPA/HHS contracts but will align future grants with core goals -.

Estimates Context

  • Q4 EPS materially missed consensus: estimate -$10.90 vs actual about -$37.00; management cited a ~$4.6M non‑cash inducement expense that impacted reported results .
  • Q3 EPS was a notable beat: estimate -$16.27 vs actual about -$10.40 (values with asterisk from S&P Global).
  • Revenue was expected at $0.0 across recent quarters; company is pre‑revenue (values retrieved from S&P Global; revenue not disclosed in cited documents).
  • Investor implication: Models should incorporate DSMB‑gated cadence, potential India contribution, and ongoing OpEx restraint; Q4 miss is largely non‑cash/one‑time driven, but development costs persist.

Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Clinical momentum: Three treated patients and DSMB review in July position the program to accelerate into two‑ and three‑treatment cohorts; preliminary EV/T‑cell data in ~3 months could be a narrative catalyst .
  • Broadened eligibility: Inclusion of combo PD‑1 regimens should improve enrollment velocity, especially in Sydney’s larger catchment area .
  • Funding plan: Expect continued need for external capital until grants/partnering emerge; monitor dilution risk vs. clinical data milestones -.
  • Non‑cash distortion: Q4 EPS miss reflects a one‑time ~$4.6M inducement charge; strip this to assess normalized OpEx trajectory .
  • Optionality: Long COVID poster acceptance and EV biology deepen optionality; treat as upside skew rather than base case near‑term driver .
  • Near‑term trading lens: Headlines around DSMB “go” and EV/T‑cell preliminary readouts likely move the stock; position sizing should reflect binary‑like data risk windows .
  • Medium‑term thesis: If EV reduction and T‑cell activity translate into efficacy signals, partnering odds rise; India ramp could validate scalability and recruitment speed .

Appendix: Source Documents

  • Q4 FY25 press release and financials .
  • Q4 FY25 8‑K referencing press release -.
  • Q4 FY25 earnings call transcript (full, including Q&A) -.
  • Prior quarters press releases and 8‑Ks: Q3 FY25 - -; Q2 FY25 - -.