Executive Summary

Q4 2024 revenue was $4.70B and GAAP EPS $1.25; operating EPS was $1.24. Full-year 2024 GAAP EPS was $5.60 and operating EPS $5.62, up ~7% YoY on operating EPS .
2025 operating EPS guidance was reaffirmed at $5.75–$5.95, with long-term EPS growth of 6%–8% and an FFO/debt target of 14%–15% .
Commercial load growth remained strong: +12.3% YoY in Q4 and +10.6% for 2024; AEP is contracted to add ~5 GW of data processing load in 2025 and anticipates 20 GW of new load by decade-end .
Financing flexibility improved via a $2.82B minority equity interest transaction in Ohio and I&M transmission, equivalent to issuing stock at ~$170 per share; management expects closing in H2 2025 and cites accretion and credit benefits .
Wall Street consensus estimates from S&P Global were unavailable due to request limits; thus, beats/misses versus estimates cannot be determined at this time.*

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Strong load momentum: “Weather-normalized sales grew 3% in 2024…we added almost 450 megawatts of hyperscale data center load in Ohio alone [in December]” and are contracted for nearly 5 GW in 2025 .
Strategic financing: The $2.82B minority interest deal “equivalent to issuing AEP common stock at $170 per share” enhances flexibility while targeting FFO/debt of 14%–15% .
Capital plan ready for growth: AEP reaffirmed a $54B five-year plan and is evaluating ~$10B incremental investment (transmission, distribution, generation), with PJM JV opportunities representing upside .

What Went Wrong

Segment pressure: Q4 saw “higher O&M and lower margins at the Generation & Marketing segment,” reducing its contribution YoY .
Credit metric headwind: Moody’s methodology change on deferred fuel is expected to temporarily lower FFO/debt by 40–60 bps, though management still expects to remain above the 13% downgrade threshold .
Regulatory complexity: Ongoing data center tariff proceedings and West Virginia rate case/securitization path introduce timing/visibility risk despite active stakeholder engagement and settlements .

Financial Results

Quarterly headline results (oldest → newest)

Metric	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD Billions)	$4.6	$5.4	$4.70
GAAP EPS ($)	$0.64	$1.80	$1.25
Operating EPS (non-GAAP) ($)	$1.25	$1.85	$1.24
Prior-year Quarter Revenue	$4.4	$5.3	$4.58
Prior-year Quarter GAAP EPS	$1.01	$1.83	$0.64
Prior-year Quarter Operating EPS	$1.13	$1.77	$1.23

Note: Estimates unavailable from S&P Global at time of request; comparison to consensus is not shown.*

Segment earnings (GAAP and Operating) – Q4 2024 vs Q4 2023

Segment	GAAP Earnings Q4 2023 ($mm)	GAAP Earnings Q4 2024 ($mm)	Operating Earnings Q4 2023 ($mm)	Operating Earnings Q4 2024 ($mm)
Vertically Integrated Utilities	38.8	255.2	237.8	275.5
Transmission & Distribution Utilities	190.3	183.4	188.6	191.3
AEP Transmission Holdco	122.1	166.1	159.3	166.3
Generation & Marketing	33.0	63.1	103.5	30.2
Corporate/All Other	(48.0)	(3.7)	(42.3)	(3.2)
Total	336.2	664.1	646.9	660.1

KPIs – Energy & Delivery (Q4 2024 vs Q4 2023)

Segment/Class	Q4 2023 (mm kWh)	Q4 2024 (mm kWh)	Change
VI Residential	6,884	6,834	-0.7%
VI Commercial	5,700	5,884	+3.2%
VI Industrial	8,462	8,450	-0.1%
VI Total Retail	21,591	21,721	+0.6%
VI Wholesale	2,781	3,636	+30.7%
VI Total kWh	24,372	25,357	+4.0%
T&D Residential	5,481	5,703	+4.1%
T&D Commercial	7,708	9,276	+20.3%
T&D Industrial	6,771	7,005	+3.5%
T&D Total Retail	20,140	22,153	+10.0%
T&D Wholesale	556	667	+20.0%
T&D Total kWh	20,696	22,820	+10.3%

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Operating EPS	FY 2024	$5.58–$5.68 (midpoint $5.63)	Actual Operating EPS $5.62	Finalized (in-line)
Operating EPS	FY 2025	$5.75–$5.95 (introduced Q3)	$5.75–$5.95 reaffirmed	Maintained
Long-term EPS Growth	Multi-year	6%–8% (introduced Q3)	6%–8% reaffirmed	Maintained
FFO/Debt Target	Multi-year	14%–15% (articulated Q3)	14%–15% reaffirmed; methodology shift may temporarily lower bps	Maintained (method change noted)
Five-year Capital Plan	2025–2029	$54B (announced Q3)	$54B reaffirmed; ~$10B incremental under evaluation	Maintained; upside under review
Dividend	Quarterly	Increased to $0.93 (Oct 2024)	$0.93 referenced; payout ratio to drift to 55%–65% over time	Maintained; policy evolution

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Q-2 (Q2 2024)	Q-1 (Q3 2024)	Q4 2024 (Current)	Trend
AI/Data center load	Commercial load +12.4% in Q2; >15 GW commitments by decade-end	Introduced 20 GW contracted by 2029; double-digit commercial growth	+12.3% Q4 commercial growth; 5 GW contracted for 2025; 450 MW added in Dec Ohio	Accelerating load, expanding contracts
Tariffs/regulatory	Filed large-load tariff modifications in multiple states	Ohio data center tariff; settlements pursued; regulatory focus on affordability	Ongoing Ohio tariff decisions expected Q3; WV case with securitization option	Active engagement; outcomes pending
Generation plan	PSO seeking 795 MW gas; >20 GW resources over decade	Broader plan including gas, renewables; PJM transmission JV opportunities	Filed 2.3 GW gas (PSO/SWEPCO); Bloom fuel cells; SMR early-site work	Diverse solutions; near-term gas, bridge tech, future SMRs
Capital allocation/financing	Workforce reduction; reaffirmed 2024 guidance	$54B capex; equity needs and tools (ATM/hybrids/PTC/ITC)	$2.82B minority interest; FFO/debt focus; securitization potential	Improved flexibility; disciplined financing
Credit metrics/liquidity	Strong liquidity; reaffirmed plan	FFO/debt 14.7%; liquidity $5.5B; Moody’s method change ahead	FFO/debt 14%; liquidity $4.6B; target 14%–15%	Solidly IG with temporary headwinds
Dividend policy	—	Plan to decouple dividend growth from EPS; target 55%–65% payout	Reiterated	More retained cash for capex

Management Commentary

“Weather-normalized sales grew 3% in 2024…we added almost 450 megawatts of hyperscale data center load in Ohio alone…we’re contracted to see nearly 5 gigawatts of data processing load come online in 2025.” — Trevor Mihalik, CFO .
“The $2.82 billion minority equity interest transaction…equivalent to issuing AEP common stock at $170 per share…helps to reduce near-term equity needs.” — Trevor Mihalik, CFO .
“We have filed for approval of 2.3 gigawatts of natural gas generation in PSO and SWEPCO…we announced an agreement with Bloom Energy to acquire up to 1 gigawatt of fuel cells…engaged in the early-site permit process for small modular reactors.” — Bill Fehrman, CEO .
“We are absolutely focused on execution in 2025…$10 billion of incremental growth capital…reaffirming our commitments, including our 2025 guidance range of $5.75 to $5.95 per share.” — Trevor Mihalik, CFO .

Q&A Highlights

Financing and credit: Management aims to keep FFO/debt in the 14%–15% range despite Moody’s deferred fuel methodology change, using securitizations, hybrids, DRIP/ATM, and portfolio optimization to meet remaining ~$2B equity needs after the $2.82B transaction .
Data center tariffs: Tariffs are tailored to ensure large loads pay incremental costs; differences across states (Ohio data center-specific, Indiana broader large-load) with active settlements and Q3 commission decision expected in Ohio .
Bloom fuel cells: First 100 MW projects filed in Ohio; customer-specific contracts cover all costs; potential expansion up to 1 GW considered as part of ~$10B incremental capital .
SMRs: Early-site permits in Indiana/Virginia; interest driven by major customers; AEP insists on risk-sharing and disciplined structure before proceeding .
Transmission upside: PJM JV with Dominion and FirstEnergy positioned as plan upside; broader 765 kV opportunities in ERCOT and other RTOs .

Estimates Context

Consensus EPS and revenue estimates from S&P Global were not retrievable due to daily request limits at the time of analysis. As a result, we cannot determine beats/misses versus Street expectations for Q4 2024 at this time.*
Directionally, the load-growth narrative (contracted ~5 GW in 2025; sustained double-digit commercial growth) and reaffirmed 2025 guidance suggest potential for upward estimate revisions in T&D and transmission contributions, while G&M margin pressure may temper segment forecasts .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Structural load tailwinds: Contracted data center and industrial additions underpin multi-year volume and rate base growth; near-term 2025 contracted ~5 GW is a tangible catalyst .
Financing de-risked: The $2.82B transaction is accretive and credit-friendly, reducing near-term external equity needs while maintaining balance sheet flexibility .
Execution focus: 2025 guidance reaffirmed; management is streamlining operations and O&M discipline to support earnings quality amid growth .
Regulatory path: Outcomes in Ohio (data center tariff) and West Virginia (securitization) are key near-term watch items for affordability and ROE trajectory .
Generation mix evolution: Near-term gas additions (PSO/SWEPCO), bridge fuel cell solutions, and prospective SMRs showcase a pragmatic approach to capacity needs tied to large loads .
Transmission upside: PJM awards and broader 765 kV deployments could lift capex above the $54B baseline, benefiting long-duration earnings streams .
Dividend policy: Decoupling payout growth from EPS growth increases retained cash, supporting the capital plan while maintaining competitive TSR .

*Values and comparisons to Wall Street consensus were unavailable from S&P Global at time of request due to daily limits.

AMERICAN ELECTRIC POWER CO INC (AEP)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary