Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V. (AERO)·Q4 2025 Earnings Summary
Aeroméxico Posts Record EBITDAR Margin as Q4 Recovery Materializes; Stock Jumps 5%
February 17, 2026 · by Fintool AI Agent
Grupo Aeroméxico delivered its strongest fourth quarter on record, with EBITDAR margin reaching an all-time high of 35% as the demand recovery that began in Q3 fully materialized. The company guided for 7.5-9.5% revenue growth in 2026 and reported Q1 is tracking to +10-12% YoY, sending shares up 5.1% to $19.07 in Monday trading.
Did Aeroméxico Beat Expectations?
As a recently-IPO'd company (November 2025), Aeroméxico lacks extensive analyst coverage for traditional beat/miss analysis. However, management delivered results at the upper end of their Q4 guidance provided in November:
The outperformance was driven by stronger-than-expected demand recovery, particularly in the U.S. portfolio (+5% passenger unit revenue YoY in Q4) and European routes.
Ask Fintool AI AgentQ4 2025 Financial Summary
Note: Q4 2025 results include $71M gain from TechOps (MRO joint venture) sale and $4M IPO-related expenses. Normalized figures exclude these items.
Full Year 2025 Results
How Did the Stock React?
AERO shares jumped 5.1% following the Q4 results, closing at $19.07—still below its November 2025 IPO price of $20.35. The positive reaction reflects:
- Record margin performance at the business level
- Strong 2026 guidance above initial expectations
- Continued demand recovery with Q1 tracking +10-12% revenue growth
- Peso tailwind driving near-term demand (management noted demand response is "rather quickly" when peso strengthens)
What Did Management Guide?
FY 2026 Guidance
Q1 2026 Guidance
Key Assumptions
- FX: 18.3 pesos/dollar average (vs 19.3 in 2025)
- Fuel: ~$69/barrel with $25 crack spread
- Mexico GDP: +1.2% to +1.5% growth expected
Ask Fintool AI AgentWhat Changed From Last Quarter?
The Q4 results confirmed the inflection point management flagged in the Q3 call. Key changes:
Tone Shift: Management moved from cautious optimism in Q3 ("demand challenges earlier in the quarter") to confident ("recovery momentum fully materialized") in Q4.
Key Management Quotes
On Recovery Momentum (CEO Andrés Conesa):
"The fourth quarter confirmed the recovery momentum established in the prior quarter... demand strengthened meaningfully in the second half, particularly in the last quarter, supported by improving traffic trends across both domestic and international markets."
On Premium Demand (CCO Aaron Murray):
"Premium continues to lead revenue performance, reflecting our customers' appetite for differentiated products and services. Premium unit revenue growth was 6 points above main cabin on a year-over-year basis."
On 2026 Capacity (CEO):
"We wouldn't need any additional planes to have an accumulated growth for the next three years of 15%-20%... We have the capacity to fly significantly more than what we have."
On Peso Tailwind (CFO Ricardo Sánchez Baker):
"When with a stronger Mexican peso, we see a pickup in demand for travel... that effect, with the very strong pesos we're seeing today, can be relevant and shifts demand to the right."
Segment and Geographic Breakdown
Revenue by Region (Q4 2025)
Note: Ancillary decline reflects normalization of expired ticket revenue (non-recurring in 2024).
Geographic Performance Highlights
- Europe: "Particularly strong in Q4... continued stretching of demand into traditionally weaker periods"
- U.S.: Third consecutive quarter of sequential unit revenue improvement; Q4 PRASM +5% YoY
- Domestic Mexico: Positive unit revenue in Q4 after soft H1 in border cities
Balance Sheet and Capital Allocation
2025 Capital Allocation:
- $204M returned to shareholders via capital reimbursements
- $156M financial debt repaid
- 17 Boeing 737 MAX aircraft added
- $913M operating cash flow generated
Fleet Update
2026 Fleet Outlook: Expecting 3 additional MAX aircraft and 2 B787s, ending year with ~170 aircraft.
Q&A Highlights
U.S. Regulatory Restrictions
The DOT restrictions on new Mexico City-U.S. routes remain in place but management expects resolution "relatively soon" as cargo-related issues are being addressed. Aeroméxico deployed all planned U.S. routes before restrictions took effect and is "okay" for 2026.
Viva Aerobus-Volaris Merger
Management declined to speculate on impact, noting the deal just entered regulatory review. They emphasized different business models: "We are a full-service carrier... we will be successful regardless of what the outcome on the other transaction."
Aircraft Utilization Opportunity
Current narrow-body utilization averages ~9 hours; opportunity to return to 2024 levels of ~10 hours without stressing operations. This operating leverage supports 15-20% cumulative capacity growth through 2028 without new aircraft deliveries.
TechOps Sale
Both Aeroméxico and Delta sold their 50% stakes in the Querétaro MRO joint venture, generating $71M gain for Aeroméxico. Maintenance agreements remain in place; impact on ongoing P&L is "not material."
Ask Fintool AI AgentForward Catalysts
Key Risks Flagged
- Peso Volatility: Strong peso helps demand but compresses USD-reported margins due to higher peso-denominated costs
- U.S. Regulatory Overhang: Extended restrictions beyond 2026 "would not allow us to grow from Mexico City"
- Negative Book Equity: Total equity remains negative at ($592M), though improving
- Competitive Environment: Potential Viva-Volaris merger could reshape Mexican aviation
Related Resources
Data sourced from Aeroméxico Q4 2025 earnings call transcript and 6-K filing dated February 17, 2026.