Executive Summary

AES delivered Q3 2025 total revenue of $3.351B and Adjusted EPS of $0.75; revenue was above S&P Global consensus while EPS was slightly below, driven by timing of renewables tax attribute recognition and mix effects . Revenue estimate $3.224B* vs actual $3.351B; EPS estimate $0.77* vs actual $0.75 .
Management reaffirmed full-year 2025 guidance: Adjusted EBITDA $2.65–$2.85B, Adjusted EPS $2.10–$2.26, and Adjusted EBITDA with Tax Attributes $3.95–$4.35B; long-term annualized growth targets (EBITDA 5%–7% through 2027; EPS 7%–9% through 2027) maintained .
Strategic execution remains robust: 2.9 GW completed YTD, on track for 3.2 GW in 2025; YTD PPAs of 2.2 GW, including 1.6 GW with data centers; backlog at 11.1 GW with 5 GW under construction .
Utilities catalysts: AES Ohio’s unanimous settlement (~$168M annual revenue increase, ~10% ROE) with rates potentially effective by November; AES Indiana partial settlement, IRP filed; rate-based investment of ~$1.3B over the past year supporting growth .
Stock reaction catalysts: reaffirmed guidance, strong renewables growth, data center PPA traction, and regulatory settlements; management emphasized self-funded plan through 2027 and no need for equity issuance, supporting confidence in the medium-term trajectory .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Renewables growth: Adjusted EBITDA up nearly 50% YTD, supported by 3 GW placed in service since Q3 2024 and robust supply chain execution .
Data center traction: 2.2 GW of PPAs signed YTD, including 1.6 GW with hyperscalers; backlog includes 4 GW with hyperscaler customers, half under construction, providing a clear line of sight to growth .
Regulatory progress: “AES Ohio reached a unanimous settlement resolving its distribution rate review… AES Indiana reached a partial settlement agreement… and filed a 20-year IRP” . Management added, “The settlement includes an annual revenue increase of approximately $168 million. A ROE of nearly 10%” .

What Went Wrong

EPS vs consensus: Adjusted EPS of $0.75 came in modestly below consensus $0.77*, primarily due to lower realized tax attributes at the Renewables SBU and lower other/interest income; partially offset by lower adjusted tax rate and higher retail margin .
Energy Infrastructure headwinds: Lower generation and prior-year Warrior Run PPA monetization created year-over-year pressure; sale of AES Brasil also reduced contributions .
Non-GAAP adjustments and timing: Day-one losses on sales-type leases, unrealized derivatives/FX, and impairments drove volatility in GAAP results intra-year, emphasizing the importance of Adjusted metrics for underlying performance .

Financial Results

Sequential Trend (Q1–Q3 2025)

Metric	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Billions)	$2.926	$2.855	$3.351
Diluted EPS (GAAP)	$0.07	($0.15)	$0.94
Adjusted EPS (non-GAAP)	$0.27	$0.51	$0.75
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$591	$681	$830
Adjusted EBITDA w/ Tax Attributes ($USD Millions)	$777	$1,057	$1,256
Operating Margin ($USD Millions)	$441	$453	$735

Year-over-Year and Estimates Comparison (Q3)

Metric	Q3 2024	Q3 2025 Consensus (S&P)*	Q3 2025 Actual
Revenue ($USD Billions)	$3.289	$3.224*	$3.351
Diluted EPS (GAAP)	$0.71	N/A	$0.89
Adjusted EPS (non-GAAP)	$0.71	$0.77*	$0.75
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$698	N/A	$830
Adjusted EBITDA w/ Tax Attributes ($USD Millions)	$1,174	N/A	$1,256

Notes: Values marked with * are retrieved from S&P Global.
Consensus metrics: Primary EPS Consensus Mean $0.77*, Revenue Consensus Mean $3.224B*, Primary EPS – # of Estimates: 10*, Revenue – # of Estimates: 5*.

Segment Revenue Breakdown (Q3)

Segment	Q3 2024 ($MM)	Q3 2025 ($MM)
Renewables SBU	$754	$817
Utilities SBU	$961	$1,105
Energy Infrastructure SBU	$1,614	$1,483
New Energy Technologies SBU	$1	$0
Corporate & Other	$33	$32
Eliminations	($74)	($86)
Total Revenue	$3,289	$3,351

KPIs and Cash/Dividend

KPI	Value	Context
PPA Backlog (GW)	11.1	5 GW under construction
YTD PPAs Signed (GW)	2.2	1.6 GW with data centers
Capacity Completed YTD (GW)	2.9	On track for 3.2 GW in 2025
Parent Liquidity ($B)	$1.65 (Sep 30, 2025)	Cash/QHCs $31MM; Credit facility avail $1.619B
Dividend per share (Quarterly)	$0.17595	Expect to maintain current quarterly dividend

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Adjusted EBITDA ($B)	FY 2025	$2.65–$2.85 (Q2 reaffirmed)	$2.65–$2.85	Maintained
Adjusted EBITDA w/ Tax Attributes ($B)	FY 2025	$3.95–$4.35 (Q2 reaffirmed)	$3.95–$4.35	Maintained
Adjusted EPS ($)	FY 2025	$2.10–$2.26 (Q2 reaffirmed)	$2.10–$2.26	Maintained
Long-term EBITDA growth	Through 2027	5%–7% (Q2 reaffirmed)	5%–7%	Maintained
Long-term EPS growth	Through 2027	7%–9% (Q2 reaffirmed)	7%–9%	Maintained
Dividend (Quarterly)	Ongoing	$0.17595 (Q2)	$0.17595; expects to maintain	Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q-2 and Q-1)	Current Period (Q3)	Trend
Data center PPAs & returns	Q2: 1.6 GW signed since Q1; returns trending upper half of 12%–15%; 8.2 GW total in operation/backlog for DCs	YTD 2.2 GW signed; 1.6 GW with data centers; 4 GW with hyperscalers in backlog	Accelerating focus on larger, higher-return projects
Supply chain & safe harbor	Q1/Q2: domestic supply chain, safe harbor protections through 2027; resilient to tariffs/FEOC	7.5 GW U.S. backlog safe harbored; additional 4 GW pipeline safe harbored; line-of-sight to further safe harbor by July 2026	Continued de-risking, advantage in time-to-power
Utilities regulatory progress	Q2: Indiana rate case filed; Ohio settlement expected; 3-year forward test years to reduce lag	Ohio settlement (~$168M annual, ~10% ROE) with near-term rate effective; Indiana partial settlement and IRP filed	Positive regulatory momentum
Battery storage demand	Q2: Integration with renewables; grid/peaking support; DC behind-the-meter growth	“More than half of our solar projects are coming with batteries; expect more standalone batteries for grid services”	Growing storage adoption across applications
Capital allocation & leverage	Q2: self-funded through 2027; no equity; parent FCF to debt improved; investment-grade path	“We are self-funded through 2027… do not have any plans to issue equity”; Moody’s FFO/net debt path on track	Reinforced balance sheet discipline

Management Commentary

CEO: “We currently have an 11.1 GW backlog of signed Power Purchase Agreements, including 4 GW with hyperscaler customers… we have clear line of sight to continued profitable growth through the end of the decade.”
CFO: “Adjusted EBITDA from our Renewables SBU is up nearly 50% year-to-date primarily as a result of the 3 GW we brought online since third quarter 2024… on track with our $1.4 billion 2025 capex plan at our US utilities” .
CFO on growth trajectory: “We’re reaffirming our 5%–7% long-term growth rate… we expect a strong step up over the next two years, with our growth rate increasing to the low teens next year… $400 million of run rate EBITDA beyond 2027” .
CFO on funding: “We are self-funded through 2027… and we do not have any plans to issue equity in this horizon” .
CEO on storage: “Already, more than half of our solar projects are coming with batteries… demand for batteries will be very strong” .

Q&A Highlights

Long-term growth clarity: Management reaffirmed 5%–7% EBITDA growth through 2027 and highlighted ~$400M incremental run-rate EBITDA beyond 2027 from backlog projects completing/annualizing in 2028–2029 .
Funding strategy: Emphasis on self-funding through 2027, no equity plans; balance sheet strengthened via cost savings, sell-downs, and rising EBITDA/FFO; investment-grade metrics tracking ahead of plan .
Data center strategies: Returns at upper end of 12%–15%; powered land DTA concept introduced (co-located sites and associated PPA) to meet time-to-power needs .
Regulatory updates: Ohio settlement (~$168M revenue increase, ~10% ROE) with potential near-term rate effectiveness; Indiana partial settlement and IRP suggest balanced approach to affordability and reliability .
Storage demand: Increasing incorporation into DC plans and grid services; management expects continued strong demand for both co-located and standalone storage .

Estimates Context

Q3 2025 vs S&P Global Consensus: Revenue beat ($3.351B actual vs $3.224B estimate*) and EPS slight miss ($0.75 actual vs $0.77 estimate*) .
Drivers: Revenue strength from new renewables projects and increased rider revenues at AES Indiana/Ohio; EPS impacted by lower realized tax attributes (timing) and lower other/interest income, partially offset by lower adjusted tax rate and higher retail margin .
Consensus participation: 10 estimates for EPS; 5 for revenue*.
Note: Values marked with * are retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Reaffirmed FY25 guidance and multi-year growth targets amid robust execution; sequential momentum evident across revenue, Adjusted EPS, and Adjusted EBITDA .
Strong data center PPA pipeline and returns (upper-end of 12%–15%) plus safe harbored supply chain position AES for time-to-power advantage through 2027 and beyond .
Utilities catalysts (Ohio settlement, Indiana IRP/settlement) and ~$1.3B rate-based investments underpin medium-term earnings visibility .
Self-funded plan through 2027 with no equity issuance planned; investment-grade credit metrics tracking ahead of targets support valuation confidence .
Watch for continued YTD project completions (on track for 3.2 GW) and further data center PPAs; these are likely near-term stock catalysts alongside guidance maintenance .
Non-GAAP adjustments will continue to affect GAAP EPS volatility; focus on Adjusted EBITDA/Adjusted EPS for underlying trajectory and segment performance .
Segment mix: Renewables and Utilities driving growth; Energy Infrastructure headwinds from asset sales and prior-year PPA monetization largely normalizing into 2026 .

AES CORP (AES)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary