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Aeva Technologies, Inc. (AEVA)·Q3 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 revenue was $2.25M, up sharply versus $0.81M in Q3 2023 and above Q2’s $2.01M; GAAP EPS improved to $(0.70) from $(0.75) YoY and $(0.82) QoQ, with non-GAAP EPS at $(0.55) .
  • Strategic wins and execution milestones: The Indoor Lab multi-year production program for security deployments at JFK and SFO; a major European OEM selected Aeva’s 4D LiDAR for automated vehicle validation; Torc/Daimler Truck validated fully driverless highway operations; and Aeva pulled forward first Atlas shipments by ~two quarters to meet demand .
  • Liquidity remained strong with $134.8M cash/marketable securities and $125M available facility; gross cash used fell to $26.4M in Q3 from $29.9M in Q2 and $32.6M in Q1, improving cash burn trajectory .
  • No formal revenue/OpEx guidance was provided; management focused on execution toward Daimler Truck SOP in 2026 and continued RFQ progress with passenger OEMs .
  • Potential near-term sentiment catalysts include the security production ramp (management referenced ~$50M cumulative revenue opportunity over 2–3 years) and driverless validation at 65 mph with Daimler/Torc, reinforcing Aeva’s FMCW/4D LiDAR differentiation .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Industrial/security production win: The Indoor Lab chose Atlas 4D LiDAR for deployments at major U.S. airports and mass transit; shipments began in Q3 to support planned rollouts and multiyear volumes .
  • Automotive milestones: Torc/Daimler Truck validated fully driverless operations at highway speeds (65 mph), a key step toward commercialization and Daimler’s autonomous truck market entry in 2027; Aeva remains exclusive long/ultra-long range LiDAR supplier, SOP on track for 2026 .
  • Product execution: Aeva pulled forward Atlas first shipments by ~six months to meet demand and is implementing plans to scale production for next year; CEO: “We made the strategic decision and executed on pulling forward first shipments of Atlas to the third quarter to meet more of our strong demand” .

What Went Wrong

  • Continued losses: GAAP operating loss of $37.9M (vs $35.5M YoY) and gross loss of $0.721M reflect early-stage scale and cost of revenue exceeding revenue; non-GAAP operating loss was $31.4M .
  • Heavy stock-based compensation: Q3 SBC totaled $6.5M across functions, contributing to non-GAAP adjustments and ongoing loss profile .
  • Execution risk in pipeline conversion: Management reiterated forward-looking uncertainties (testing/validation, definitive deployment agreements, revenue recognition) across programs and RFQs .

Financial Results

MetricQ3 2023Q1 2024Q2 2024Q3 2024
Revenue ($USD Millions)$0.81 $2.11 $2.01 $2.25
GAAP EPS ($USD)$(0.75) $(0.67) $(0.82) $(0.70)
Non-GAAP EPS ($USD)$(0.63) $(0.56) $(0.57) $(0.55)
Gross Margin (%)(−211.7%) (−66.1%) (−42.2%) (−32.0%)

Notes: Gross margin (%) calculated from reported revenue and cost of revenue figures in cited documents.

Operating losses and liquidity detail:

MetricQ3 2023Q1 2024Q2 2024Q3 2024
GAAP Operating Loss ($USD Millions)$35.5 $37.3 $48.9 $37.9
Non-GAAP Operating Loss ($USD Millions)$30.3 $32.1 $32.0 $31.4
Cash + Marketable Securities ($USD Millions)—$189.3 $160.2 $134.8
Available Facility ($USD Millions)—$125.0 $125.0 $125.0
Gross Cash Used ($USD Millions)—$32.6 $29.9 $26.4
Weighted Avg Shares (Millions)44.6 52.74 52.99 53.70

KPIs and other items:

KPIQ3 2023Q1 2024Q2 2024Q3 2024
Stock-based compensation ($USD Millions)$5.15 $5.26 $5.36 $6.51
Litigation settlement (OpEx impact)——$11.5 —

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
RevenueQ4/FYNone providedNone providedMaintained (no formal guidance)
Operating Loss/OpExQ4/FYNone providedNone providedMaintained (no formal guidance)
SOP/MilestonesDaimler TruckSOP 2026; market entry 2027SOP 2026; market entry 2027 reiteratedMaintained

Management did not issue quantitative guidance; commentary centered on program execution, Atlas production scaling, and RFQ progression .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ1 2024 (Prior-2)Q2 2024 (Prior-1)Q3 2024 (Current)Trend
Daimler Truck programOn-road data collection; SOP 2026; market entry 2027 reiterated Continued shipments; eCascadia demonstrator; SOP preparation Validated fully driverless at 65 mph; SOP 2026; 2027 entry reiterated Strengthening execution
Passenger OEM RFQsFinalist after manufacturing/quality audit; award expected in 2024 Expect award later this year; added another top-10 OEM integration collaboration Down-selected to final stage; commercial terms discussions Advancing toward nomination
Industrial/NikonOn track for first industrial SOP later this year Final validation completed; deliveries in Q4 Atlas shipments pulled forward; scale production plans Acceleration
Security—Top U.S. national defense security org selected Aeva 4D LiDAR The Indoor Lab multi-year production win; airport deployments; ~$50M potential over 2–3 years Rapid expansion
Atlas product—Announced; scaling line at Fabrinet Pulled forward first shipments ~six months; scaling 2025 Early commercialization
Liquidity/cash usage$189.3M cash+securities $160.2M cash+securities; $125M facility $134.8M cash+securities; $125M facility; gross cash used down to $26.4M Improving burn, solid runway
Regulatory (NHTSA AEB)NHTSA AEB rule seen as tailwind for LiDAR adoption ——Supportive backdrop

Management Commentary

  • “We made the strategic decision and executed on pulling forward first shipments of Atlas to the third quarter to meet more of our strong demand.” — Soroush Salehian, CEO .
  • “Aeva’s liquidity totaled $259.8 million at the end of Q3, comprised of $134.8 million in cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities and a $125 million of available undrawn equity facility.” — Saurabh Sinha, CFO .
  • “As the exclusive long and ultra-long range LiDAR supplier for Daimler Truck’s autonomous truck production program… we remain on track with our start of production in 2026 to support Daimler Truck’s planned market entry by 2027.” — Soroush Dardashti .
  • “We estimate the revenue potential [for Indoor Lab and other industrial security applications] to be approximately up to about $50 million in the next few years.” — Soroush Dardashti .

Q&A Highlights

  • Security/industrial revenue scope: Management sized Indoor Lab plus other security applications at “approximately up to about $50 million” over the next few years, with initial deployments at JFK and SFO and expansion to other venues .
  • Daimler/Torc manufacturing milestones: All 2024 sensor shipments for Aeries II completed on time; focus shifts to Atlas deliveries and scaling qualification, ahead of SOP in 2026 and market entry in 2027 .
  • Passenger OEM RFQ status: Aeva has advanced to the final stage with a global top-10 OEM; multiple down-selects completed; commercial terms under discussion .
  • Atlas pull-forward rationale: Responding to demand; non-automotive deployments allowed acceleration while automotive qualifications continue for SOP .
  • Industrial deployments: Nikon program validated in Q2 with higher ASPs; ramp begins in Q4, with potential to expand to broader industrial metrology/automation use cases .

Estimates Context

  • We attempted to retrieve Wall Street consensus for Q3 2024 and next quarter via S&P Global; consensus data was unavailable at the time of request due to a retrieval limit. As a result, estimate comparisons are not included in this recap (consensus unavailable) [GetEstimates error].

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Execution is the story: Daimler/Torc validation at highway speeds and Atlas shipment pull-forward de-risk product and manufacturing timelines ahead of 2026 SOP and 2027 market entry .
  • Emerging revenue vectors: The Indoor Lab security production program plus earlier defense selection create a near-term non-automotive revenue ramp, with management pointing to ~$50M potential over 2–3 years .
  • Cash runway: $134.8M cash/marketable securities plus $125M undrawn facility, with improving gross cash burn ($26.4M in Q3) support continued scale and RFQ pursuit .
  • Margin trajectory: Gross margin remains negative but improved sequentially as shipments scale; watch cost of revenue mix and Atlas manufacturing scale to further narrow losses .
  • RFQ outcomes are pivotal: A down-selected global top-10 passenger OEM award would materially increase medium-term TAM visibility; monitor nomination decisions and program scopes in coming months .
  • Risk factors: Ongoing operating losses and SBC, revenue recognition timing, and reliance on successful validation/deployment agreements remain material risks highlighted by management .
  • Trading lens: Positive catalysts include additional security deployments, an OEM passenger RFQ win, and any incremental Daimler/Torc commercialization milestones; absence of formal guidance puts emphasis on program updates and shipment scale .