Afya - Earnings Call - Q1 2025

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Gibbon and our CFO, Luis Andre Blanco. During today's presentation, our executives will make forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements can be related to future events, future financial or operating performance, known and unknown risks, uncertainties, and other factors that may cause Afya's actual results to differ materially from those contemplated by these forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements in this presentation include, but are not limited to, statements related to the business and financial performance, expectations and guidance for future periods, or expectations regarding the company's strategic product initiatives and its related benefits. These risks include those more fully described in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The forward-looking statements in this presentation are based on the information available to us as of the date hereof.

We should not rely on them as predictions of future events, and we disclaim any obligation to update any forward-looking statements except as required by law. In addition, may referenced non-IFRS financial measures on this call. These measures are not intended to be considered in isolation or a substitute of the results prepared in accordance with IFRS. This presentation has reconciled these non-IFRS financial measures to the most directly comparable IFRS financial measures. Now, let me turn the call over to Virgilio Gibbon, Afya's CEO.

Virgilio Gibbon (CEO)

Thank you, João, and welcome to our first conference call of 2025. It is with much satisfaction that Afya starts another year of great operational and financial performance. These quarterly results show the high predictability of our business and successful execution of our strategy that once again combines strong growth with higher profitability and cash generation, Afya's three-pillar business model. This quarter was marked by gross margin expansion within our undergrad and continuing education segments, combined with solid cash generation and robust EPS growth, showing our consistent business expansion. In this presentation, I will cover key strategic topics, including our performance and highlights, the success of business execution across our three segments, and finally, Luis Andre Blanco will provide an in-depth look at our financial and operational performance. Now, turning to page number three, let's begin by highlighting our performance achievements.

Initially, our net revenue increased by 16%, reaching BRL 936 million, accompanied by a growth in adjusted EBITDA of almost 24% year-over-year, reaching BRL 492 million, with a record margin of 52.5%. We also reported a strong cash flow from operating activities again of BRL 470 million, reflecting almost a 10% increase compared to the previous year, boosted by the solid operational results of the company, with a cash conversion rate of 96.8%, and a solid cash position of almost BRL 1.2 billion at the end of the first quarter. With consistent momentum, our net income reached BRL 257 million, making over 23% growth year-over-year, with an EPS of BRL 2.79, a remarkable 23% increase compared to the previous year. This underscores our disciplined capital allocation and an efficient capital structure.

Moving to our operational updates, we have 3,593 approved seats, but with the closing of the FUNIQ acquisition, which will contribute with an additional 60 seats, our total number of approved medical seats will increase to 3,653 seats. Additionally, our number of undergrad medical students has reached almost 26,000 students, representing almost a 50% growth compared to the first quarter of 2024. Furthermore, we increased the net average ticket of medical school by almost 4% year-over-year, reaching BRL 9,240.

In addition, we continue to observe improving performance in the continuing education and medical practice solution segments. In continuing education, net revenue increased almost 90% year-over-year, pure organically, reaching BRL 71 million. In medical practice solution, we saw a 14% growth in net revenue compared to the first quarter of 2024, reaching almost BRL 42 million.

Lastly, our ecosystem has 317,000 active users, exemplifying substantial penetration among physicians and medical students in Brazil. Moving to slide number four, we will discuss our performance across our three business segments. Starting with the undergrad segment, we observed important movements throughout the quarter, such as higher tickets in the medicine course, with almost a 4% increase over a year. This growth was accompanied by gross margin expansion, driven by the consolidation of Unidom acquired in July 2024, and the continuous ramp-up of our four medical campuses launched in the third quarter of 2022. It is also important to note that we concluded the FUNIQ acquisition, which will enhance our operation with 60 additional medical seats for the next semester.

The continuing education segment was marked by an increase in graduate journey students, in addition to a gross margin expansion driven by our ongoing operational restructuring, which continues to contribute to improved cost management across selling, general, and administrative expenses. In the medical practice solution segment, growth is being driven by the ramp-up of B2B contracts and the continued expansion of active payers, as well as B2B engagements and the addition of new contracts with pharmaceuticals and industry partners. Before moving to the next slide, I'm proud to share that in April, we received two significant recognitions. Moody's Agency in Brazil upgraded our national scale credit rating from AA+.BR to AAA.BR, with a stable outlook reflecting our strong growth, cash generation, and financial discipline.

I'm also pleased to highlight that we successfully achieved all the IFC-defined targets for 2024, including the number of free medical consultations provided and the percentage of medical costs rated with the highest quality scores. Meeting these targets will trigger a 15 basis points step down in our lower interest rate over the next 12 months, reinforcing both our social impact and financial discipline. Additionally, we received our first ESG rating from MSCI, debuting with a solid BBB score. MSCI's sector-relative methodology underscores that we outperformed a significant portion of its peers, particularly in areas like data privacy and security, where our practices were stronger than many in the industry. This further solidifies our commitment to sustainability.

On the next page, we would like to highlight that the latest ENAGE and CPC results released by INEP showcase outstanding academic performance across Afya's medical schools. These results reinforce our ongoing commitment to academic excellence, innovative teaching, and the development of highly qualified professionals. Among the results, we are proud to celebrate our achievements and congratulate our institutions that performed above expectations, which continues to strengthen Afya's position as a leader in medical education in Brazil.

I will turn the call over to Luis Andre Blanco, Afya's CFO, to provide further insights into the financial and operational metrics. Thank you.

Luis Andre Blanco (CFO)

Thank you, Virgilio, and good evening, everyone. Starting with slide number seven for discussions of key operational metrics by business unit. Starting with the undergrad programs, our number of medical students grew 15% over the first quarter of 2024, reaching almost 26,000 students, and approved medical seats increased 12% yearly to 3,593. Our medical school net average tickets increased by 4%, reaching BRL 9,240 in the first quarter of 2025. In addition, net revenues for the undergrad segments saw over a 17% increase, achieving BRL 827 million, 86% of which are related to medicine and 94% from health-related courses.

On the next page, I will present our continuing educational metrics. We approach continuing education through three main journeys. Starting with the residency journey, which encompasses products focused on residency preparation, we saw a 17% decrease, reaching 12,203 students by the end of the period.

In the graduate journeys, focused on the specialization test preparations and graduate courses in medicine, students grew by 16%, reaching 8,542 students. Lastly, our other courses and B2B offerings decreased by 3% over the same three-month period of the prior year. Continuing education net revenue rose to BRL 71 million in the three-month period of 2025, up from the BRL 65 million in the three-month period of 2024, reflecting growth of almost 9%. This includes an 8% increase in B2B revenue and a 16% increase in B2B.

Moving to slide number nine, I'll discuss the medical practice solutions operational metrics. The first graph shows our total active payers, which are the ones that generate revenues in the business to physicians, B2P. Following a steady growth trend, the number of paying users increased to over 198,000, a 4% increase over the same quarter last year. The second graph highlights our monthly active users, which account for 245,000, slightly lower than the 263,000 record last year. This reduction still reflects the transition from the PEPMED portal to the Afya portal.

Lastly, in our final graph, we present the net revenue of our medical practice solution segments, which has expanded by 14% compared to the same quarter of last year, reaching BRL 42 million. Of this total, BRL 37 million was generated by B2B, showing an increase of 14%, while B2B contributed to BRL 4 million, a 16% increase over the same quarter last year.

In the next slide, we present our Afya ecosystem. We're pleased to highlight Afya's substantial contributions to the Brazilian healthcare community. By the end of the first quarter of 2025, our ecosystem encompassed over 370,000 physicians and medical students using our service and products.

Moving forward to page 11, I want to discuss our financial overview for the first quarter of 2025, starting with the next slide. With great satisfaction, I present another strong quarterly performance for Afya.

Net revenue for the first quarter of 2025 reached BRL 936 million, representing a 16% increase compared to the same quarter last year. The yearly revenue increase was mainly due to higher tickets in medicine courses, the maturation of medical school seats, the consolidation of Unidom, and the advancements of medical practice solutions and continuing educational segments. In the first quarter of 2025, adjusted EBITDA rose by 24%, reaching BRL 492 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 52.5%, a gain of 300 basis points compared to the first quarter of 2024. The expansion in adjusted EBITDA margin is largely attributed to the strong performance of the undergrad segment, the gross margin expansions in the undergrad and continuing education segments, the ramp-up of the four medical campuses that started operations in the third quarter of 2022.

The operational restrictions efforts in continuing education and medical practice solutions segments, the centralization of academic processes and the expansion of service provided by our shared service center, and also more efficiency in selling, general, and administrative expenses. Moving to the next slide, the first quarter cash flow from operating activities rose by almost 10%, reaching BRL 470 million, reflecting a strong operational performance. Operating cash flow conversion ratio was 96.8%. Net income for the first quarter of 2025 totaled BRL 257 million, representing a 23% increase from the same period in 2024. Adjusted net income was BRL 294 million, a 17% increase.

This net income reflects not only our strong operational performance but also the impact of the new tax legislations implementing the OECD Pillar two rules, which introduce additional social contributions to ensure minimal effective tax rates for multinational groups. This resulted in an increase of BRL 23 million in our income tax expenses for the period ended in March 2025. Despite this effect, net income grew robustly, underscoring the resilience and efficiency of our business model. Regarding EPS, we achieved BRL 2.79 per share in the three-month period, representing a 23% increase year-over-year.

Now, moving to my last two slides, I will discuss our cash and net debt positions, also giving more color on our cost of debts. This slide presents a table detailing our gross debt compositions and total cost of debt, covering primarily obligations: the SoftBank transactions, the mentors, other financial liabilities, the IFC financials, and accounts payable through selling shareholders. Afya's capital structure remained solid, with conservative leverage positions and a low cost of debt. Afya net stats, excluding IFRS 16, divided by the midpoint of the 2025 adjusted EBITDA, was 0.9 times.

On the next page, we can look at it closely at our net debt variation. As of the first quarter of 2025, our net debt had reduced to BRL 1,524 million when compared to the end of 2024, a reduction of BRL 291 million, reflecting our strong operational performance and capital allocation discipline. This concludes our prepared remarks. We are proud of our accomplishments and robust performance across all areas.

Our commitment to advancing the medical journey through an integrated educational system and medical practice solutions remains strong, supporting students in becoming physicians, promoting continuous medical learning, and enhancing physicians' accuracy and productivity. As we look ahead, we are enthusiastic about the opportunities that lie before us. I will now open the conference for the Q&A session. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

If you want to ask a question, please raise your hand. We're going to start the Q&A session with Flavio Yoshida from Bank of America. Flavio, you may go ahead, please.

Flavio Yoshida (VP of Equity Research for Latin America Financials)

Hi, good evening, everyone. I have two questions on my side. The first one is on the EBITDA margin. We noticed a very strong print on the quarter. I would like you to share some details on what drove this performance? Was it related to the ramp-up of new units, to greater efficiency, or maybe contribution from other businesses? Also, given the strong print on the quarter, do you see room for an upward revision on the guidance for this year? My second question is on the intake process. Are you guys seeing a greater challenge on the intake process given the seats offering expansion from medical courses over the past year? Are you guys feeling that it is getting hard to fill all the seats? If you could comment on the intake process, we would like that a lot. Thank you.

Luis Andre Blanco (CFO)

Hi, Flavio. Thank you for your question. It's Blanco speaking. I'll take the first one, and Virgilio will get the second one regarding the intake. Regarding the margin expansions that we had compared to the same period of the prior year, the main driving force was the higher gross margins that we got from the margin expansion that we got from the undergrad and the continuing education segments. The continuing ramp-up of the four medical campuses that we've launched in the third quarter of 2022. The continuing initiatives that we got with higher efficiency coming from the continuing education segments and medical practice solutions. Remember that we've made huge transformations in the first quarter of 2024, moving some functionalities between the segments and restructuring the segments internally. We got a lot of efficiencies on these movements. It's like the full year of these changes.

The improved cost and efficiency in SG&A still that we got from the applications of the zero-budget project that we started in 2023. On top of that, we came with Unidompedro, where we got almost 100% occupancy with debts and with very, very smooth acquisitions that will make that in this month of May, we are going to put Unidompedro in our shared service. We are very happy with these results that we achieved in the first quarter.

Regarding the year, we have a view that we have a very strong start of the year, but we keep our guidance that we provided in March for the year. We are ahead in terms of margins, but right now, we keep the guidance that we provide, both in terms of revenues and EBITDA for the year. If we had a second semester intake, we might review it. Right now, we keep our view for the year. Okay?

Virgilio Gibbon (CEO)

Thank you, Blanco. Just to add in on that, a very strong start for 2025, Flavio. Just remembering, we just closed yesterday six additional seats in Contagem City, close to Belo Horizonte, where we are right now. Any update that we may have or not on our guidance for 2025 would only happen after the second semester intake, also depending on all the process to be completed. Regarding the intake process that we had on the first semester, it was a very healthy intake process. Around seven to eight candidates brought every seat that we have in Brazil. We saw a very strong recognition of our brand, the brand project that we kicked off in 2023. I think it is paying out, and I think this is good news for all campuses that are using now Afya's brand around the country.

Not only on the medical intake was a health process, but if you may see on the table two, we have a very strong intake and renewal for also health and non-health programs that also happened to grow organically all the student base in 2025. This is ahead of our expectation here. We have a very strong intake and a better renewal rate that was the result of a very good renewal process that we started back in November last year, making a very strong student base for 2025. That's it.

Flavio Yoshida (VP of Equity Research for Latin America Financials)

All right. Thank you.

Virgilio Gibbon (CEO)

Thank you, Flavio.

Operator (participant)

Thank you, Flavio. The next question comes from Lucca Marquezini from Itaú.

Lucca Marquezini (Equity Research Associate)

Hi, good evening, everyone. Thank you for taking our questions. A couple of questions from our side. The first one would be regarding the undergrad medical school average ticket. It grew 4% year-over-year, which is pretty much in line with inflation. My question would be whether the company has seen any significant change in the competitive landscape that maybe brought some challenges in implementing price hikes? That is the first question. The second question would be regarding the medical practice solution segment. We saw a decrease in the number of monthly active users. We were just wondering if there was a change also in the competitive landscape and what is the expectation for the rest of the year for this segment? Thank you.

Virgilio Gibbon (CEO)

Luca, thank you. The undergrad ticket, it's around 4%. We expect a little bit higher than that, but we have an impact on the increase of FIES percentage that started impacting our campuses last year. Last year, we had around 10 campuses that were impacted by the 27.5% retention on the FIES. That impacted a little bit the increase that we had on our tuition, on our average tuition. Moving ahead, the price that we passed was a little bit above than that.

As soon as we have the same stores comparison with the institutions that had this impact, I think the ticket can be even a little bit further than that for the next quarter, but close to 4% to 5%. We are not expecting any difficulty here to change close to inflation to our campuses. It is just more than the same what we are doing every semester, every year when we started the intake process for the following year. Based on the active users, Blanco will add something here.

Luis Andre Blanco (CFO)

Hi, Luca. Thank you for your questions. Regarding the monthly active users on the medical practice solutions, we still see a kind of pushback in the movements that we changed the PEPMED portal to the Afya portal. As you remember, when we make these changes, we put a lot of this content that's related to the content of the portals regarding with loggage information. These kinds of movements, we had some pushbacks on the monthly active users using our website. As these keep going, we see this pushback being smaller. The changes, if I'm not wrong, happening in April last year. The most part of these changes has already happened. There are no changes on the kind of profile of assets that we are seeing right now.

Virgilio Gibbon (CEO)

Lucca, just to add a point here, just the duration behind it. We changed the portal back in April 2024. The reason for that is that we decided to be more strict to have the users sign our portal here. It is more difficult to have the active user. We are getting more information. The reason for that is that we have more information, we have more behavior, and also we can leverage the relationship with the industry, with the B2B contracts, having more details, more data about these users that are logging into our ecosystem. On the other side, the payers keep improving in a healthy way. That was a decision that we took to be more restrictive, but it is running as expected. Okay?

Lucca Marquezini (Equity Research Associate)

Thank you, Virgilio Gibbon. That was very clear.

Operator (participant)

Thank you, Luca. The next question comes from Mauricio Cepeda from Morgan Stanley.

Mauricio Cepeda (Analyst)

Hi, Virgilio Gibbon. Thank you for the opportunity here. I have two questions. One, if you could clarify all this kind of minimum tax according to the Pillar Two of OECD. A little bit on why were you classified as a multinational company? What are your perspectives in terms of, let's say, this kind of tax behaving? I understand that you were provisioning, not necessarily paying, if I understood correctly from the tax. What are your expectations here? The second about the SoftBank convertible debt, right? Do we have this? We are getting closer to the deadline. How are you preparing in terms of cash if that is not converted into equity? Thank you.

Luis Andre Blanco (CFO)

Hi, Cepeda. It's Blanco speaking now. I'll take the two questions here. Regarding the Pillar Two, it was a law that was enacted on 27th of December and being effective in January 2025. This law aligns the Brazilian tax legislations with the OECD global rules and introduces minimal taxations. It's a complex calculation, very, very different from the Brazilian calculations of lucro real that we are used to have here. This was approved in the last minute of 2024 and effective for this quarter.

This applies to multinational groups that have entities in the country with that the multinational group has more than EUR 750 million in the last years, in the last fiscal year. In our understanding, we are under the perimeter of this law. What we did, we make this provisioning. The payment of fees is due to July 2026. That's when we should pay it. Right now, we started at the end of March. We started questioning to do our injections, going to justice to question these effects, the constitutionality, and some points about this because how it is implemented has some is reducing the impacts of the problem.

It's a complex case. We had a conservative approach of provisioning that until we are discussing that in the justice. Okay? It's a provision. It's not a cash disbursement right now. Regarding the SoftBank transactions, we had this early redemption, the right of early redemption from SoftBank in May 2026. Right now, we do not have any official positions on that. As we are getting closer, what we did in 2024, we started to provision the premium from this loan that is due, this premium, if they exercise this early redemption.

That we started to talk with SoftBank regarding their views on that. We do not have any official positions regarding the extension or not of these operations. What we did, we started to get in 2024 the provision of this premium of 5%. We are prepared with our cash flow generations to pay these instruments if it is required, if SoftBank exercises the early redemption on May 2026.

Mauricio Cepeda (Analyst)

That's clear. Thank you, Blanco.

Operator (participant)

Thank you, Cepedo. As a reminder, if you want to ask a question, please raise your hand. Our next question comes from Marcela Santos from JP Morgan.

Marcelo Santos (Equity Research Analyst)

Hello, good evening. Thanks for taking the questions. I have two as well. The first, I want to touch on continuing education. So we saw the revenue trend starting to improve, but still single digits. What could you provide an update on what's going on in the segment and what's the expectation for this year? The second question is about the B2B business within medical practice solutions. I remember last year that there was kind of, let's say, the revenue that was supposed to take place in the first quarter happened in the second. Looks like this year, something like, is this the seasonality? How is the B2B business going on the medical practice solutions? Thank you very much.

Virgilio Gibbon (CEO)

Hey, Marcelo. I'll get the first one, and Blanco helped me with the second one here. On continuing education, we had a very good intake process and also the end-of-year process coming from graduate, all the specialization, the long-term and higher tickets. Brazil facing some competition on the residency and small programs of lower tickets. That was the combination. We accelerate our growth when you compare to the speed that we were on the third and the fourth quarter last year, a little bit higher, expecting to be even a little bit better for the following quarters.

Yes, we are growing on graduate, the speed that we would like to grow, but still facing strong competition on residency prep programs. That is the main reason why we are close to 10% on continuing medical education this first quarter. I think it would be something close to that for the rest of the year. Regarding the B2B contracts, Blanco, I'd like to..

Luis Andre Blanco (CFO)

Yeah. Thank you, Marcelo, for your questions. As you remember, we had some postponement of recognition of revenues in 2024, moving from the first to the second semester. That made at that time, if you compare 2024 with 2023, we had even a decrease on that. What happened, and you clearly see that in the B2B, that we had some kind of seasonality on how the pharmaceutical industry makes the contracts with the advertisement products that we have. The fourth quarter, it is always more active in terms of contracts if you compare it to the first quarter. You can see in the B2B sites that the first quarter always will be a little bit below what we had to find in the fourth quarter.

Just to see if we got the growth of 2024 as a whole of the year, the B2B contracts grew last year almost 30% in terms of revenues. Right now, we started with a lower with 16% compared to a minus 6.2% in the same period of the last year. It is kind of a little bit of seasonality in the pharmaceutical industry, but we are very confident regarding the B2B business, mostly supported by the pharmaceutical players.

Marcelo Santos (Equity Research Analyst)

Perfect. Thank you very much for the answers.

Operator (participant)

Thank you, Marcelo. Since we don't have any further questions, I would like to thank your participation here today. We inform the investor relation teams are available if you have any follow-up questions. See you again in our next conference call. Thank you.