Executive Summary

Q3 2025 delivered record net effective spread ($97.8M, +14% YoY) and record core earnings ($49.6M; $4.52 core diluted EPS, +10% YoY), with GAAP diluted EPS of $4.44 (+15% YoY) .
Primary EPS beat Wall Street consensus ($4.52 vs $4.47; core EPS basis) while revenue comparisons depend on definition: S&P revenue actual fell short of its estimate, but company-reported total revenues (core composition) exceeded consensus; see Estimates Context below*.
Business mix shifted toward higher-spread Infrastructure Finance (renewable energy, broadband, power & utilities), driving spread accretion; outstanding business volume reached $31.1B (+$0.5B net new in the quarter) .
Capital strengthened via $100M Series H preferred issuance; Tier 1 capital ratio rose to 13.9%, core capital reached $1.7B, and liquidity stood at 317 days .
Subsequent to quarter-end, the company repurchased ~~30,000 Class C shares (~~$5M) and later declared a $1.50 Q4 common dividend; capital return remains a catalyst alongside ongoing FARM securitization plans .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Record profitability metrics: net effective spread ($97.8M) and core earnings ($49.6M; $4.52 core diluted EPS) achieved new highs; “we delivered exceptional third quarter 2025 results, achieving yet another quarter of record net effective spread and core earnings” (CEO) .
Strategic mix shift: Infrastructure Finance grew $600M in the quarter to $11.0B, with renewable energy more than doubling YoY to $2.3B and broadband doubling YoY to $1.3B; “we anticipate increased financing opportunities…for data center buildouts, given increasing investment in capacity to support AI, cloud storage, and enterprise digitization” .
Capital and ALM resilience: Tier 1 ratio improved to 13.9%; management reiterated match-funded strategy neutral to rate cuts; “a cut in interest rates by the Fed should have no impact on the net effective spread…ours move in tandem” .

What Went Wrong

Credit expense uptick: credit-related expense was $7.43M vs $3.45M YoY, reflecting CECL model adds for growth in newer segments and episodic issues (California groundwater policy effects; three charge-offs totaling $4.4M) .
Operating expense higher: OpEx rose to $29.8M (vs $24.6M YoY) due to headcount, technology, and transaction-related legal costs tied to growth initiatives .
Revenue consensus methodology mismatch: S&P Global’s revenue “actual” lagged its estimate even as company-reported total revenues (core composition) exceeded consensus; highlights definitional divergence between GAAP/Non-GAAP and consensus frameworks* .

Financial Results

Metric	Q3 2024	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Net Interest Income (GAAP, $MM)	$86.8	$96.8	$98.5
Diluted EPS (GAAP, $)	$3.86	$4.48	$4.44
Core Diluted EPS (Non-GAAP, $)	$4.10	$4.32	$4.52
Net Effective Spread (Non-GAAP, $MM)	$85.4	$93.9	$97.8
Total Revenues (Core Composition, $MM)	$91.5	$100.5	$105.1
Credit Related Expense (GAAP, $MM)	$3.45	$7.87	$7.43
Net Income Attributable to Common ($MM)	$42.3	$49.2	$48.7

Segment Net Effective Spread ($MM):

Segment	Q3 2024	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Agricultural Finance – Farm & Ranch	$35.8	$35.7	$34.8
Agricultural Finance – Corporate AgFinance	$6.4	$8.6	$9.0
Infrastructure Finance – Power & Utilities	$4.8	$5.6	$5.9
Infrastructure Finance – Broadband	$2.8	$3.9	$4.4
Infrastructure Finance – Renewable Energy	$3.8	$6.2	$7.7
Treasury – Funding	$30.9	$31.7	$34.8
Treasury – Investments	$0.9	$2.1	$1.1
Total NES	$85.4	$93.9	$97.8

KPIs

KPI	Q3 2024	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Outstanding Business Volume ($B)	—	30.6	31.1
Tier 1 Capital Ratio (%)	—	13.6	13.9
Core Capital ($B)	—	1.6	1.7
Days of Liquidity (days)	—	310	317
Provision/Allowance Commentary	—	Allowance $27M (Q1 end)	Allowance $37.2M; ~12 bps of total volume

Results vs Wall Street Consensus (S&P Global)*

Metric	Q3 2025 Estimate	Q3 2025 Actual	Result
Primary EPS (S&P) ($)	4.47*	4.52*	Beat
Revenue (S&P) ($MM)	101.0*	95.0*	Miss
Company-Reported Total Revenues (Core Composition) ($MM)	101.0*	105.1	Beat

*Values retrieved from S&P Global. Note: Farmer Mac’s reported “Total revenues” (core composition) include net effective spread, guarantee fees, and other adjustments; S&P’s revenue methodology may differ, explaining the variance between S&P “actual” and company-reported amounts.

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Dividend (Common)	Q4 2025	—	$1.50 per share declared (payable Dec 31, 2025)	Maintained (regular quarterly declaration)
Share Repurchase Authorization	Ongoing	$9.8M authorization	Increased to $50.0M; extended through Aug 2027 (announced Q2)	Raised
Share Repurchase Activity	Subsequent to Q3	—	~~30,000 Class C shares (~~$5M) repurchased	Implemented
Capital Issuance	Q3 2025	—	Issued $100.0M 6.500% Series H preferred	Added Tier 1 capital
Effective Tax Rate	Q3 2025	—	Below statutory due to renewable energy investment tax credits	Beneficial impact

No quantitative revenue/margin/OpEx guidance was provided; management reiterated pipeline strength, securitization plans, and ALM neutrality to rate changes .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q1 2025)	Previous Mentions (Q2 2025)	Current Period (Q3 2025)	Trend
Infrastructure Finance mix (AI/data centers)	Broadband up 22% since year-end; pipeline strong	Broadband +$200M to $1.2B; data center demand cited	Broadband doubled YoY to $1.3B; data centers & AI/cloud demand emphasized	Strengthening
Renewable Energy growth & tax credits	+$200M; tax credits opportunistic later in 2025	$35.6M tax credits purchased; benefit ~$3.2M	$24.2M credits purchased; ~$1.5M benefit; segment doubled YoY to $2.3B	Sustained growth; ongoing credit benefits
Tariffs/macro & government support	Anticipated tariffs; monitoring; diversified exposure	HR1 provisions; ethanol demand; govt relief allocations	Tariff headlines vs nuanced commodity impacts; expected $10–12B payments; portfolio stable	Managed headwinds; policy support
ALM & rate sensitivity	Opportunistic funding; NES up slightly; neutral to rate moves	Funding improved; ability to avoid market during volatility	“Fed cuts should have no impact on NES”; match-funded neutrality reiterated	Consistent neutrality
Credit quality & CECL	Allowance $27M; seasonal delinquencies	$7.8M provision; episodic downgrades (solar, broadband)	$7.4M provision; CA groundwater impacts; episodic charge-offs & recovery	Episodic; stable overall
Securitization (FARM)	Expect issuance; strong investor appetite	Sixth FARM completed; planning another in 2025	Working toward second FARM in Q4; exploring risk transfer structures	Ongoing issuance
Capital returns (dividends & buybacks)	14 consecutive years of dividend increases noted	Authorization lifted to $50M	~30k shares repurchased; $1.50 Q4 dividend declared	Active, opportunistic
Leadership transitions	CFO departing; search underway	CFO search launched	CEO retirement planned Mar 2027; COO named successor; CFO search update	Managed succession

Management Commentary

“We delivered exceptional third quarter 2025 results, achieving yet another quarter of record net effective spread and core earnings. We surpassed $31 billion in outstanding business volume and strengthened our already robust capital base…” (CEO) .
“A cut in interest rates by the Fed should have no impact on the net effective spread here at Farmer Mac…ours move in tandem and are structured to remain in tandem.” (CEO) .
“Volume in our renewable energy segment more than doubled from the same period last year to $2.3 billion…our broadband infrastructure segment doubled year-over-year to $1.3 billion…we anticipate increased financing opportunities…for data center buildouts.” (President/COO) .

Q&A Highlights

Spread outlook: Mix shift toward broadband/renewables supports higher NES; AgVantage refinancings at tight spreads are being evaluated prudently for capital use .
Credit provision: $7.4M provision driven by growth in newer segments and episodic issues (California groundwater policy); three charge-offs of ~$4.4M; recovery of ~$2.2M on a prior permanent planting loan .
Tariffs & government payments: Management expects $10–12B in payments; commodity impacts are nuanced; diversified exposure mitigates risk .
Prepayments: Lower than 2021-era; many borrowers locked long-term low rates; expect moderation, not an acceleration .
Capital returns: ~30k shares repurchased post quarter; buybacks to be opportunistic alongside dividends and preferred issuance .

Estimates Context

EPS: Primary EPS beat ($4.52 actual vs $4.47 estimate) on core EPS basis; GAAP diluted EPS was $4.44. This reflects analyst focus on core/normalized EPS for Farmer Mac* .
Revenue: S&P “actual” revenue ($95.0M*) missed its estimate ($101.0M*), but company-reported total revenues (core composition) were $105.1M, exceeding consensus. Differences stem from Farmer Mac’s non-GAAP revenue composition (net effective spread + fees + other) versus S&P’s revenue methodology* .
Target price & recommendation: S&P Global target price consensus ~$226.67*; consensus recommendation text unavailable*.

Where estimates may need to adjust:

Continued mix shift toward higher-spread Infrastructure Finance suggests NES and core earnings run-rate upside vs prior expectations .
Effective tax rate below statutory due to renewable energy investment tax credits could lift after-tax EPS vs models not incorporating credit purchases .
Credit cost normalization at low seven-figure quarterly levels; episodic items managed within CECL framework .

*Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Mix shift is the story: Accelerating broadband/data center and renewable energy growth is accretive to spreads and core earnings; expect continued strength absent AgVantage spread normalization .
ALM shields NES from rate paths: Management’s match-funded strategy implies limited EPS sensitivity to expected Fed cuts, reducing macro-beta risk to spread income .
Credit remains contained: Provision elevation reflects growth/CECL and episodic items (California water policy); management does not see systemic sector stress; allowance and capital are robust .
Capital actions support total return: Preferred issuance, ongoing securitizations, opportunistic buybacks (~$5M), and steady dividends ($1.50 for Q4) offer multi-pronged capital return and balance sheet optimization .
Consensus may understate revenues/earnings: Analyst frameworks that don’t align with Farmer Mac’s non-GAAP “total revenues” or renewable energy tax credits may need updates after consecutive record NES/Core EPS prints .
Watch catalysts: Next FARM securitization (Q4 timeline), further broadband/renewables fundings, CFO appointment, progression of HR1-related renewable credits and ag relief payments .
Succession de-risks leadership transition: CEO retirement planned in 2027 with COO named as successor; continuity of strategy and execution expected .

FEDERAL AGRICULTURAL MORTGAGE CORP (AGM)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary