Executive Summary

Q1 2024 delivered a sharp rebound: net revenue rose 58% QoQ to $5.72M and 50% YoY, driven by stronger Twirla demand and modestly higher factory sales; GAAP swung to net income of $1.28M ($0.28 EPS) primarily due to a $4.20M non‑cash warrant liability gain, while non‑GAAP net loss remained $(2.92)M .
Twirla demand inflected: total cycles up 18% QoQ (81,088), retail cycles up 8%, and non‑retail up 32%; factory sales increased 3% QoQ (70,662 cycles) .
No earnings call was held and the company does not plan to host calls going forward, limiting management Q&A visibility for investors .
Liquidity remains tight (cash $2.62M; shareholders’ deficit $(10.32)M) and payables elevated ($12.62M), although debt was eliminated in March 2024; shares transitioned to OTC trading in late March, potentially affecting liquidity and institutional access .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well
- Demand recovery: Q1 2024 Twirla cycles rose 18% QoQ to 81,088; retail +8% and non‑retail +32%, reinforcing channel breadth; factory sales up 3% QoQ to 70,662 cycles .
- Revenue and gross profit improved: net revenue $5.72M (+58% QoQ, +50% YoY) and gross profit $4.04M, reflecting stronger demand and lower COGS QoQ .
- CEO tone constructive on growth vectors: five‑state focus, telemedicine penetration, and Planned Parenthood relationships—“We think there are still areas of growth… Our goal is to… increase shareholder value and… explore all strategic opportunities…” .
What Went Wrong
- Underlying profitability remains negative: non‑GAAP net loss was $(2.92)M (ex‑warrant fair value), indicating core operations still loss‑making despite GAAP profit from non‑cash items .
- Operating expense uptick QoQ: GAAP OPEX rose to $6.79M vs $5.47M in Q4 2023 (though down 20% YoY), pressuring operating leverage near‑term .
- Balance sheet constraints and listing change: cash $2.62M, shareholders’ deficit $(10.32)M, accounts payable $12.62M; shares now trade OTC following Nasdaq delisting, which may reduce liquidity and investor reach .

Financial Results

Metric	Q3 2023	Q4 2023	Q1 2024
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$6.70	$3.62	$5.72
COGS ($USD Millions)	$2.50	$2.19	$1.68
Gross Profit ($USD Millions)	~$4.20	$1.42	$4.04
Gross Margin (%)	63%	39.4% (calc. from rev/GP)	70.6% (calc. from rev/GP)
Total Operating Expenses ($USD Millions)	$8.20	$5.47	$6.79
GAAP Net Income (Loss) ($USD Millions)	$(0.80)	$(4.47)	$1.28
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)	$(0.27)	$(1.51)	$0.28
Non‑GAAP Net Loss ($USD Millions)	$(4.33)	$(4.34)	$(2.92)
Non‑GAAP EPS ($)	$(1.47)	$(1.46)	$(0.63)
Cash & Equivalents ($USD Millions)	$2.79 (9/30/23)	$2.56 (12/31/23)	$2.62 (3/31/24)
Weighted Avg Shares (Basic & Diluted)	2,950,136	2,963,657	4,631,902

KPI and channel metrics

KPI	Q3 2023	Q4 2023	Q1 2024
Twirla Total Demand (cycles)	74,325	68,793	81,088
Retail Demand (cycles)	40,196	N/A	43,748
Non‑Retail Demand (cycles)	34,129	N/A	37,340
Factory Sales (cycles)	74,424	68,580	70,662

Estimate comparison (Q1 2024)

Metric	Consensus Estimate	Actual	Surprise
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$3.75	$5.72	+$1.97M (Beat)
EPS (non‑GAAP, $)	$(0.51)	$(0.63)	$(0.12) (Miss)

Note: Company reported GAAP EPS of $0.28, while third‑party consensus appears to track non‑GAAP EPS; S&P Global consensus was unavailable via our tool.

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current (Q1 2024)	Change
Revenue	FY 2024	None disclosed	None disclosed	Maintained (no guidance)
Operating Expenses	FY 2024	None disclosed	No numeric guidance; reiterated focus on managing OPEX	Maintained (qualitative only)
Other financial metrics	FY 2024	N/A	No formal guidance issued	N/A

Context: In Q3 2023, management had reaffirmed FY 2023 revenue of “at least $25M” , but actual FY 2023 revenue was $19.59M reported in Q4 release .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Note: The company did not host a Q1 2024 call and does not plan to do so going forward .

Topic	Q3 2023 (Prior-2)	Q4 2023 (Prior-1)	Q1 2024 (Current)	Trend
Demand and channel mix	Record demand and factory sales; retail focus; gross margin 63%	Q4 demand fell QoQ but Jan/Feb showed rebound; factory sales eased	Demand rebounded: total +18% QoQ; retail +8%, non‑retail +32%	Improving QoQ
Gross margin/profit	63% margin; ~$4.2M gross profit	Gross profit $1.42M on lower revenue	Gross profit $4.04M; margin calc. ~71%	Recovered
OPEX discipline	OPEX $8.2M; y/y reductions	OPEX $5.5M (down 33% QoQ)	OPEX $6.8M (up QoQ; down YoY)	Slightly higher QoQ
Balance sheet/debt	—	Debt payoff announced March 2024	Cash $2.62M; shareholder deficit $(10.32)M; payables $12.62M	Mixed
Listing status	Nasdaq compliance risk flagged	Final Nasdaq delisting; moved to OTC on 3/26/24	Continues OTC; applied to OTC‑QB	Stable on OTC
Access/regulatory tailwinds	—	—	Cited potential benefit from Biden‑Harris guidance for no‑cost contraception (49M women affected)	Potential tailwind

Management Commentary

“We are excited about the start of 2024, which saw a rebound in demand, factory sales and net sales in the first quarter from our fourth quarter 2023 results… We think there are still areas of growth in our five‑state focus, expanding our reach in telemedicine and expanding our relationships with planned parenthoods.” — Al Altomari, Chairperson & CEO .
On access tailwinds: The administration’s guidance could “eliminate financial barriers for contraceptive products like Twirla for an estimated 49 million women.” .

Q&A Highlights

The company did not host an earnings call for Q1 2024 and stated it does not plan to do so going forward, so there is no Q&A to report .

Estimates Context

S&P Global consensus estimates were unavailable via our tool for AGRX this quarter.
Third‑party visible estimates suggested revenue of ~$3.75M vs actual $5.72M (beat) and EPS of $(0.51) vs non‑GAAP $(0.63) (miss); company GAAP EPS was $0.28, driven by a $4.20M unrealized gain on warrant liability .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Demand recovered faster than expected across both retail and non‑retail channels, translating to strong revenue and gross profit; near‑term trading setups may favor momentum on positive revenue surprise prints .
Quality of earnings matters: GAAP profit was largely driven by non‑cash warrant liability remeasurement; underlying non‑GAAP loss remains significant, tempering durability of profitability without further scale or mix gains .
Operating expense control remains critical; QoQ OPEX increase bears monitoring against demand trajectory to assess operating leverage and path to cash generation .
Liquidity and capital structure risks persist (low cash, shareholder deficit, high payables) even post‑debt payoff; equity market access may be constrained by OTC listing status .
Strategic levers: five‑state focus, telemedicine partners (e.g., Nurx) and Afaxys network penetration could extend growth; federal contraceptive access guidance could be a medium‑term demand catalyst .
Lack of earnings calls reduces transparency and real‑time guidance; investors may face higher information risk and should look to 10‑Q/K disclosures and press releases for updates .

Supporting detail (selected balance sheet figures as of 3/31/24): cash $2.62M; accounts receivable $4.81M; inventory $3.75M; accounts payable $12.62M; warrant liability $1.49M; shareholders’ deficit $(10.32)M .

AGILE THERAPEUTICS INC (AGRX)·Q1 2024 Earnings Summary