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American Healthcare REIT, Inc. (AHR)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q1 2025 delivered strong operating momentum: total revenue was $540.6M, GAAP diluted EPS was $(0.04), NAREIT FFO/share $0.35, and NFFO/share $0.38, with Same-Store NOI growth of 15.1% year over year led by SHOP (+30.7%) and ISHC (+19.8%) .
- Management raised full-year 2025 guidance: Total Portfolio SS NOI growth to 9–13% (midpoint +250 bps), NFFO/share to $1.58–$1.64 (midpoint +$0.03), reflecting strength in ISHC and SHOP and accretive capital markets activity .
- Capital position improved: Net Debt-to-Annualized Adjusted EBITDA at 4.5x; ~$47.7M of equity issued via ATM at $30.22/share, with total liquidity of ~$634.5M to fund external growth and developments .
- Portfolio actions support mix upgrade: ISHC lease buyout ($16.1M), non-core disposals, and subsequent $65M SHOP acquisition; pipeline awarded >$300M of potential acquisitions (not included in guidance) .
- Near-term stock catalysts: guidance raise, accelerating spring/summer demand in SHOP, and visibility on accretive acquisitions and developments; modest Q1 impairment ($21.7M) clouded GAAP results but non-GAAP metrics were resilient .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Operating outperformance and guidance raise: SS NOI +15.1% YoY (SHOP +30.7%, ISHC +19.8%); FY25 SS NOI midpoint increased to 11% and NFFO/share midpoint to $1.61, citing stronger demand and accretive capital markets activity .
- Strategic capital execution: ATM issuance of 1.58M shares for $47.7M at $30.22/share with Net Debt-to-Annualized Adjusted EBITDA at 4.5x enhances capacity for external growth .
- Management confidence on demand and execution: “strong demand for long-term care led to great performance…mitigate any previously anticipated occupancy losses,” with upbeat outlook for spring/summer .
What Went Wrong
- GAAP net loss from impairment: $(6.8)M net loss, $(0.04) diluted EPS in Q1; impairment ($21.7M) and other non-operating items weighed on GAAP results despite non-GAAP strength .
- Outpatient Medical softness persisted: same-store OM growth +2.0% in Q1, but management continues to prune smaller/off-campus assets and expects OM to be roughly flat near-term .
- Triple-net leased properties declined: SS NOI down 1.4% YoY in Q1; segment remains <10% of NOI and is being managed for stability rather than growth .
Financial Results
Core Financials vs Prior Periods
Interpretation:
- Sequentially, revenue was modestly down vs Q4 due to seasonality and asset pruning, while non-GAAP profitability remained elevated; YoY expansion driven by SHOP and ISHC strength, RevPOR gains, expense discipline, and demand resilience .
Segment Same-Store NOI Breakdown
KPIs
Estimates vs Actual (Wall Street—S&P Global)
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- CEO: “Despite a challenging winter season, strong demand for long-term care led to great performance for our diversified healthcare portfolio…For the balance of 2025, we expect demand to continue strengthening as we enter the warmer spring and summer selling seasons.” .
- CFO: “Demand within our ISHC segment exceeded…expectations…enabling us to raise our full-year 2025 NOI growth and earnings guidance.” .
- COO: “Our operating portfolio segments performed well to start the year…demand…for post-acute care skilled nursing beds helped offset impacts from the colder winter months.” .
- CEO (call): “We achieved 15.1% same-store NOI growth…we are increasing our full year same-store NOI growth expectations for the Trilogy segment…we have already seen a sharp uptick in move-ins since the end of Q1.” .
Q&A Highlights
- Capital allocation and funding: First source of capital is retained earnings; dispositions of lower-growth assets; opportunistic ATM use when pricing attractive; sufficient capacity for pipeline .
- Pipeline details and strategy: >$300M awarded, mix skewed to SHOP; newer assets, mid-6% to 8% going-in yields; many off-market; focus on operator partnerships .
- Medicaid and MA mechanics: Anticipated Medicaid rate resets around July tied to inflation; value-based care add-ons possible; MA contracts as percentage of Medicare, with expansion driving census and rate tailwinds .
- Pricing and margin drivers: Street rate hikes, reduced concessions, dynamic pricing per unit (aviation/hospitality methodology) sustaining RevPOR and margins .
- OM dispositions cadence: 14 OM assets outside same-store—2 sold, 2 under contract; portfolio cleanup underway, not financial engineering .
Estimates Context
- Q1 2025 actual revenue of $540.6M was slightly below S&P Global consensus of $541.6M; GAAP diluted EPS of $(0.04) missed consensus of $0.055; NAREIT FFO/share of $0.35 was modestly below FFO/share consensus of $0.362 (NFFO/share $0.38 is above NAREIT FFO but not directly comparable to the FFO consensus)* .
- Analyst coverage depth: Primary EPS estimates count = 4; Revenue estimates count = 6 for Q1 2025; limited but improving coverage for a relatively new listed REIT*.
- Implication: Street models likely need upward revisions to FY25 SS NOI and NFFO/share following guidance raise; GAAP EPS noise from impairments less relevant to REIT valuation; focus should remain on FFO/NFFO and SS NOI trajectory*.
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Operating momentum is intact with broad-based demand and superior revenue management, translating into strong SS NOI across ISHC and SHOP; guidance increases reinforce trajectory .
- Expect sequential acceleration into Q2/Q3 as spring/summer selling season drives SHOP move-ins; MA expansion and quality mix optimization should support Trilogy rates and margins .
- Capital optionality supports accretive growth: balance sheet at 4.5x Net Debt/Annualized Adjusted EBITDA and sizeable liquidity; disciplined ATM usage and portfolio pruning fund higher-quality assets .
- Watch the pipeline: >$300M of awarded deals (not in guidance) provides upside potential later in 2025, likely modest EPS impact this year but more material in 2026 .
- REIT valuation lens: FFO/NFFO and SS NOI growth matter more than GAAP EPS; Q1 impairment depressed GAAP results but underlying non-GAAP metrics remain robust .
- OM segment remains a drag but being actively optimized; ongoing dispositions should improve portfolio mix and long-term growth profile .
- Near-term catalysts: Additional guidance raises (if summer demand outperforms), closing/accretion from awarded acquisitions, and sustained RevPOR gains with reduced concessions .