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ASHFORD HOSPITALITY TRUST INC (AHT)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Comparable RevPAR rose 3.2% YoY to $133, with comparable hotel EBITDA up 8.7%; GAAP diluted EPS was -$4.91 and Adjusted EBITDAre was $61.7M, reflecting cost controls and ancillary revenue initiatives under “GRO AHT” .
- Versus Wall Street: EPS materially beat consensus while revenue modestly missed; Adjusted EBITDAre exceeded consensus EBITDA, aided by corporate and property-level savings and brand conversions (La Concha, Le Pavillon) .
- Balance sheet de-risking: fully repaid corporate strategic financing using proceeds from a $580M refinancing; extended a $410M Morgan Stanley pool to 2026–2028 with asset release flexibility, improving maturity profile .
- Near-term catalysts: execution on asset dispositions at attractive cap rates, continued GRO AHT savings (> $30M annual run-rate already identified), and event-driven/group demand strength in key markets (D.C., Miami, Dallas) .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Brand conversions outperformed: Le Pavillon (Tribute) +78% total revenue YoY; La Concha (Autograph) +27% total revenue YoY, with strong ADR and occupancy gains, supporting portfolio mix upgrade and incremental EBITDA .
- Event-driven group strength: inauguration-related demand drove 95% occupancy across D.C. hotels and ~$1.6M incremental room revenue; FIFA World Cup pipeline cited for 2026, with group pace ahead across 2025–2026 .
- Capital structure improvement: $580M nonrecourse refinancing (SOFR+4.37%) funded payoff of corporate strategic financing; Morgan Stanley 17-hotel loan extended to 2026–2028; ongoing flexibility for asset releases .
- Management quote: “Completely eliminating our corporate-level debt strengthens our balance sheet…positions Ashford Trust for long-term success” – CEO Stephen Zsigray .
What Went Wrong
- Reported hotel revenue declined YoY due to portfolio changes; GAAP net loss attributable to common stockholders was -$27.8M, and AFFO/share was -$0.98, reflecting interest expense and non-comparable adjustments .
- Government segment softness, particularly in D.C., led to cancellations and near-term block reductions; management is backfilling with business transient and other segments .
- Some markets saw weakness or mixed trends: Minneapolis and San Diego underperformed; New York/New Jersey modest; select “Other Areas” down on hotel net income contributions .
Financial Results
Estimated vs Actual (Q1 2025):
Note: Values retrieved from S&P Global*. EBITDA consensus reflects SPGI standardized EBITDA; company reports Adjusted EBITDAre.
KPIs and Portfolio Performance:
Selected Market Hotel EBITDA (Q1 2025):
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “I’m extremely pleased with Ashford Trust’s strong first quarter financial results, underscored by solid RevPAR growth of approximately 3.2%…completely eliminating our corporate-level debt strengthens our balance sheet…positions Ashford Trust for long-term success.” – Stephen Zsigray, CEO .
- “Adjusted EBITDAre for the quarter was $61.7 million…Our blended average interest rate is 8.1%…approximately 23% of our debt is effectively fixed and 77% effectively floating.” – Deric Eubanks, CFO .
- “Every quarter of 2025 group rate is pacing ahead…first quarter hotel EBITDA margin expanded by ~131 bps YoY…we’re focused on reducing energy costs and optimizing contract labor.” – Chris Nixon, EVP Asset Management .
Q&A Highlights
- Monthly RevPAR cadence: January strongest; softness emerged post-inauguration; calendar effects (loss of Feb 29; Easter shift) affected comps; gov’t demand primarily D.C.; backfilling with BT; productivity/labor efficiencies improving (hours per occupied room; contract labor down) .
- GRO AHT progress: Low-hanging fruit largely realized, but >$10M corporate savings still targeted; expect delivery on $50M goal, with ongoing updates .
- BAML loan update: Forbearance in place; extension option to next month; management expects a favorable resolution via refinancing or extension .
- Dispositions: Focus shifting to select-service and underperforming full-service assets ($50–$75M equity range) with improved asset-release flexibility; goal to deleverage further .
Estimates Context
- Q1 2025 results vs S&P Global consensus: Revenue $277.4M vs $282.5M*, Primary EPS -$4.91 vs -$11.13*, Adjusted EBITDAre $61.7M vs EBITDA consensus $48.1M*. The EPS beat reflects cost controls and portfolio optimization; revenue miss modest given comparable RevPAR growth and non-comparable portfolio adjustments .
- Implications: Street models likely to adjust higher on EBITDA/FFO trajectory given GRO AHT savings realization, conversions ramp, and de-risked corporate debt. Revenue trajectory remains sensitive to gov’t segment and discrete calendar shifts .
Note: Values retrieved from S&P Global*.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Execution on de-leveraging is a key upside driver: corporate strategic financing eliminated; maturities pushed; nonrecourse structure maintained; further asset sales at attractive cap rates enhance equity value .
- Operating momentum is resilient: comparable RevPAR and hotel EBITDA growth with +131 bps margin expansion, supported by cost initiatives and brand upgrades; expect continued ancillary revenue uplift .
- GRO AHT is tracking ahead: >$30M of annual run-rate savings identified; additional corporate savings targeted; watch for updates to bridge toward +$50M run-rate .
- Estimates likely re-rate: EPS beat and EBITDA outperformance suggest upward revisions to forward EBITDA/AFFO, though revenue is tempered by non-comparable adjustments and gov’t softness in D.C. .
- Near-term trading: positive bias on de-risking catalysts and cost realization; volatility tied to government demand normalization and calendar effects; monitor June asset sale closings and additional loan extensions .
- Medium-term thesis: brand conversions and portfolio optimization in high-barrier markets (Key West, New Orleans) plus disciplined capex ($95–$115M FY25) underpin margin and cash flow durability .
- Dividends: common dividend unlikely in 2025; preferred dividends current; capital rotation favors deleveraging and growth investments .