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AH

ASHFORD HOSPITALITY TRUST INC (AHT)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Comparable RevPAR rose 3.2% YoY to $133, with comparable hotel EBITDA up 8.7%; GAAP diluted EPS was -$4.91 and Adjusted EBITDAre was $61.7M, reflecting cost controls and ancillary revenue initiatives under “GRO AHT” .
  • Versus Wall Street: EPS materially beat consensus while revenue modestly missed; Adjusted EBITDAre exceeded consensus EBITDA, aided by corporate and property-level savings and brand conversions (La Concha, Le Pavillon) .
  • Balance sheet de-risking: fully repaid corporate strategic financing using proceeds from a $580M refinancing; extended a $410M Morgan Stanley pool to 2026–2028 with asset release flexibility, improving maturity profile .
  • Near-term catalysts: execution on asset dispositions at attractive cap rates, continued GRO AHT savings (> $30M annual run-rate already identified), and event-driven/group demand strength in key markets (D.C., Miami, Dallas) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Brand conversions outperformed: Le Pavillon (Tribute) +78% total revenue YoY; La Concha (Autograph) +27% total revenue YoY, with strong ADR and occupancy gains, supporting portfolio mix upgrade and incremental EBITDA .
  • Event-driven group strength: inauguration-related demand drove 95% occupancy across D.C. hotels and ~$1.6M incremental room revenue; FIFA World Cup pipeline cited for 2026, with group pace ahead across 2025–2026 .
  • Capital structure improvement: $580M nonrecourse refinancing (SOFR+4.37%) funded payoff of corporate strategic financing; Morgan Stanley 17-hotel loan extended to 2026–2028; ongoing flexibility for asset releases .
  • Management quote: “Completely eliminating our corporate-level debt strengthens our balance sheet…positions Ashford Trust for long-term success” – CEO Stephen Zsigray .

What Went Wrong

  • Reported hotel revenue declined YoY due to portfolio changes; GAAP net loss attributable to common stockholders was -$27.8M, and AFFO/share was -$0.98, reflecting interest expense and non-comparable adjustments .
  • Government segment softness, particularly in D.C., led to cancellations and near-term block reductions; management is backfilling with business transient and other segments .
  • Some markets saw weakness or mixed trends: Minneapolis and San Diego underperformed; New York/New Jersey modest; select “Other Areas” down on hotel net income contributions .

Financial Results

MetricQ1 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Total Revenue ($USD Millions)$303.9 $275.5 $277.4
Net Income Attributable to Common ($USD Millions)$67.4 $(131.1) $(27.8)
Diluted EPS ($)$5.99 $(23.83) $(4.91)
Adjusted EBITDAre ($USD Millions)$59.5 $45.2 $61.7
Hotel EBITDA Margin % (Actual)25.82% 25.24% 28.32%

Estimated vs Actual (Q1 2025):

MetricConsensusActual
Revenue ($USD Millions)$282.5*$277.4
Primary EPS ($)$(11.13)*$(4.91)
EBITDA ($USD Millions)$48.1*$61.7 (Adjusted EBITDAre)

Note: Values retrieved from S&P Global*. EBITDA consensus reflects SPGI standardized EBITDA; company reports Adjusted EBITDAre.

KPIs and Portfolio Performance:

KPI (Comparable)Q1 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
RevPAR ($)$128.60 $125.95 $132.71
Occupancy (%)67.25% 66.09% 67.78%
ADR ($)$191.24 $190.58 $195.80
Comparable Hotel EBITDA ($USD Millions)$71.0 $65.5 $77.2

Selected Market Hotel EBITDA (Q1 2025):

MarketHotel EBITDA ($USD Millions)% of Total
Washington D.C.-MD-VA$11.240 14.6%
Nashville, TN$9.476 12.3%
Tampa, FL$5.998 7.8%
Miami, FL$5.558 7.2%
Other Areas$14.808 18.3%

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Capex ($USD Millions)FY 2025$95–$115 $95–$115 Maintained
Common DividendFY 2025Not anticipated in 2025 Do not anticipate reinstating common dividend in 2025 Maintained
GRO AHT EBITDA ImprovementRun-rateTarget +$50M announced Dec-2024 >$30M per year expected from implemented initiatives toward $50M goal Progress update
Corporate Strategic FinancingCorporate debtIn process/paydown (Q4) Fully paid off (Feb 12, 2025) Improved
MS Pool 17 LoanDebt maturityOriginal maturity Nov-2024 Extended to 2026 with 2x 1-yr options (final 2028) Extended
Non-traded Preferred OfferingCapitalClosing planned Mar 31, 2025 Closed; ~$212M gross proceeds Realized

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3 2024)Previous Mentions (Q4 2024)Current Period (Q1 2025)Trend
GRO AHT cost and revenue initiativesAshford Inc. commitment to corporate cost savings; ancillary revenue uplift focus GRO AHT launched; three pillars; early margin gains in Dec >$30M annual run-rate identified; hotel EBITDA margins +131 bps YoY Strengthening execution
Capital structure/refinancingStrategic financing paydown plan; transactions in pipeline $121.5M Crystal Gateway refi; maturity extensions; plan to fully repay corporate strategic debt $580M refi completed; corporate strategic financing fully repaid; MS 17 loan extended; Indigo Atlanta extended Material de-risking
Demand mix: group/BT/leisureCorporate transient up ~4%; leisure soft; gov’t segment cautious pre-election Group pace +5% FY25; Dec EBITDA +12% YoY Group pace ahead across 2025–2026; inauguration drove 95% occupancy in D.C.; gov’t softness in D.C. with backfill via BT Broadly constructive despite gov’t softness
Asset sales/transactionsImproved institutional interest post-rate cut; narrowing bid–ask spread Courtyard Boston Downtown sold at attractive cap rate Additional sales underway (e.g., Hilton Houston NASA Clear Lake at attractive cap rate) Opportunistic deleveraging
Brand conversions/product performanceConversions underway; expected RevPAR premiums La Concha and Le Pavillon completed; outperforming underwriting Strong first full quarter: La Concha +27% revenue, Le Pavillon +78% revenue; high ADR/Super Bowl impact Outperformance sustained
Macro/regulatoryHurricane impacts managed; property tax appeals savings Calendar shifts (Easter/Leap day) impacted monthly comps; gov’t segment volatility Mixed, manageable

Management Commentary

  • “I’m extremely pleased with Ashford Trust’s strong first quarter financial results, underscored by solid RevPAR growth of approximately 3.2%…completely eliminating our corporate-level debt strengthens our balance sheet…positions Ashford Trust for long-term success.” – Stephen Zsigray, CEO .
  • “Adjusted EBITDAre for the quarter was $61.7 million…Our blended average interest rate is 8.1%…approximately 23% of our debt is effectively fixed and 77% effectively floating.” – Deric Eubanks, CFO .
  • “Every quarter of 2025 group rate is pacing ahead…first quarter hotel EBITDA margin expanded by ~131 bps YoY…we’re focused on reducing energy costs and optimizing contract labor.” – Chris Nixon, EVP Asset Management .

Q&A Highlights

  • Monthly RevPAR cadence: January strongest; softness emerged post-inauguration; calendar effects (loss of Feb 29; Easter shift) affected comps; gov’t demand primarily D.C.; backfilling with BT; productivity/labor efficiencies improving (hours per occupied room; contract labor down) .
  • GRO AHT progress: Low-hanging fruit largely realized, but >$10M corporate savings still targeted; expect delivery on $50M goal, with ongoing updates .
  • BAML loan update: Forbearance in place; extension option to next month; management expects a favorable resolution via refinancing or extension .
  • Dispositions: Focus shifting to select-service and underperforming full-service assets ($50–$75M equity range) with improved asset-release flexibility; goal to deleverage further .

Estimates Context

  • Q1 2025 results vs S&P Global consensus: Revenue $277.4M vs $282.5M*, Primary EPS -$4.91 vs -$11.13*, Adjusted EBITDAre $61.7M vs EBITDA consensus $48.1M*. The EPS beat reflects cost controls and portfolio optimization; revenue miss modest given comparable RevPAR growth and non-comparable portfolio adjustments .
  • Implications: Street models likely to adjust higher on EBITDA/FFO trajectory given GRO AHT savings realization, conversions ramp, and de-risked corporate debt. Revenue trajectory remains sensitive to gov’t segment and discrete calendar shifts .

Note: Values retrieved from S&P Global*.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Execution on de-leveraging is a key upside driver: corporate strategic financing eliminated; maturities pushed; nonrecourse structure maintained; further asset sales at attractive cap rates enhance equity value .
  • Operating momentum is resilient: comparable RevPAR and hotel EBITDA growth with +131 bps margin expansion, supported by cost initiatives and brand upgrades; expect continued ancillary revenue uplift .
  • GRO AHT is tracking ahead: >$30M of annual run-rate savings identified; additional corporate savings targeted; watch for updates to bridge toward +$50M run-rate .
  • Estimates likely re-rate: EPS beat and EBITDA outperformance suggest upward revisions to forward EBITDA/AFFO, though revenue is tempered by non-comparable adjustments and gov’t softness in D.C. .
  • Near-term trading: positive bias on de-risking catalysts and cost realization; volatility tied to government demand normalization and calendar effects; monitor June asset sale closings and additional loan extensions .
  • Medium-term thesis: brand conversions and portfolio optimization in high-barrier markets (Key West, New Orleans) plus disciplined capex ($95–$115M FY25) underpin margin and cash flow durability .
  • Dividends: common dividend unlikely in 2025; preferred dividends current; capital rotation favors deleveraging and growth investments .