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American Healthcare REIT, Inc. (AHTR)·Q4 2023 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2023 delivered accelerating top-line and operational momentum: Total GAAP revenue was $482.58M, up both sequentially and year over year; NFFO per share held at $0.38 and FFO per share improved to $0.13 .
  • Same-Store NOI growth was robust across segments, led by SHOP (+44.9% YoY) and ISHC (+13.9% YoY), reflecting occupancy gains and moderating expense growth in RIDEA-operated assets .
  • 2024 guidance sets mid-single-digit growth: NAREIT FFO/share $1.13–$1.19 (midpoint $1.16), NFFO/share $1.18–$1.24 (midpoint $1.21), and total portfolio SS NOI growth of 5%–7% (midpoint 6%) .
  • Post-quarter catalysts: January 2024 equity offering of 64.4M shares at $12 (gross proceeds $772.8M), ~$721M debt repaid (weighted avg rate ~7.53%), ~$54M annualized interest savings; management targets low-6x net-debt-to-adjusted-EBITDA by 3/31/24 .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Strong operating momentum: “Our portfolio continues to recover… with the trajectory of revenue growth drivers all heading in the right direction.” COO cited occupancy surpassing pre-pandemic levels in ISHC .
    • SHOP recovery: Same-Store NOI growth +44.9% YoY (Q4), with occupancy rising to 80.4% and Cash NOI margin improving to 13.4% as agency labor usage normalized .
    • Balance sheet actions: CFO emphasized the “transformative” offering and debt repayment, estimating low-6x net-debt-to-adjusted-EBITDA by March 31, 2024 and ~$54M annual interest savings .
  • What Went Wrong

    • GAAP net loss persisted: Q4 net loss per share was -$0.42, though improved vs -$0.72 in Q4 2022; FY 2023 net loss per share was -$1.08 .
    • Outpatient Medical softness: Same-Store NOI growth was modest (+2.3% YoY), and revenue per square foot dipped sequentially in Q4 to $29.65 from $30.44 in Q3 .
    • Elevated interest burden pre-deleveraging: Q4 interest expense was $41.19M; YTD interest coverage at 1.8x highlights sensitivity to rates prior to the January paydown .

Financial Results

MetricQ4 2022Q3 2023Q4 2023
Total GAAP Revenue ($USD Millions)$452.58 $464.24 $482.58
Net Loss per Share (GAAP)-$0.72 N/A (not disclosed)-$0.42
NAREIT FFO per Share$0.04 N/A (not disclosed)$0.13
Normalized FFO per Share$0.38 N/A (not disclosed)$0.38
Pro-Rata Cash NOI ($USD Millions)$70.97 $72.91 $76.84

Segment Same-Store NOI and Margins (Q4)

SegmentQ4 2022 Same-Store NOI ($USD Millions)Q3 2023 Same-Store NOI ($USD Millions)Q4 2023 Same-Store NOI ($USD Millions)Q4 2022 NOI MarginQ3 2023 NOI MarginQ4 2023 NOI Margin
ISHC$21.99 $22.07 $25.05 15.5% 15.2% 16.7%
Outpatient Medical$20.35 $20.97 $20.81 62.9% 62.3% 63.5%
SHOP$3.04 $4.43 $4.41 9.7% 13.8% 13.2%
Triple-Net Leased$9.26 $9.52 $9.58 94.7% 94.3% 94.3%

KPIs

KPIQ4 2022Q3 2023Q4 2023
ISHC Average Occupancy84.3% 86.2% 85.0%
SHOP Average Occupancy76.1% 79.3% 80.4%
Outpatient Medical Spot Occupancy89.0% 89.7% 89.2%
Triple-Net Average Operator Occupancy83.7% 86.3% 87.4%
SHOP RevPOR ($)$4,231 $4,529 $4,631

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
NAREIT FFO per ShareFY 2024N/A$1.13–$1.19; Midpoint $1.16 Initiated
Normalized FFO per ShareFY 2024N/A$1.18–$1.24; Midpoint $1.21 Initiated
Total Portfolio Same-Store NOI GrowthFY 2024N/A5%–7%; Midpoint 6% Initiated
Quarterly Cash DistributionQ1 2024N/A$0.25 per share Initiated

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 2023 and Q3 2023)Current Period (Q4 2023)Trend
Occupancy recovery (SHOP/ISHC)ISHC occupancy 84.8%→86.2%; SHOP 76.8%→79.3% ISHC 85.0%; SHOP 80.4% Improving sequentially QoQ and YoY
Expense moderation (agency labor)Early signs of moderation (RIDEA assets) Management notes continued normalization and operator transitions aiding margins Positive margin trend
Capital markets & deleveragingNo large offerings noted in Q2/Q3 dataLargest REIT offering/listing since 2018; ~$721M debt repaid; ~$54M annual interest savings; low-6x net-debt-to-adj-EBITDA targeted Material balance sheet improvement
Outpatient Medical stabilityNOI margins ~62%–63% with steady occupancy Same-Store NOI +2.3% YoY; occupancy 89.2% Stable-to-modest growth
Segment mix (ISHC/SHOP lead)ISHC and SHOP driving NOI growth ISHC +13.9% and SHOP +44.9% SS NOI growth YoY Mix shift toward operating segments

References: Conference call held March 22, 2024 with listed participants .

Management Commentary

  • Strategic message: “We are proud of our 2023 operating results… As a publicly listed company, we are committed to being responsible stewards of capital” – CEO .
  • Operating strength: “Our unique investment in Integrated Senior Health Campuses remains the most attractive part of our portfolio… occupancy already surpassing pre-pandemic levels” – COO .
  • 2024 outlook confidence: “We believe 2024 should be another year of occupancy gains within our SHOP segment… mid-single-digit NOI growth across our entire diversified healthcare portfolio,” – CEO .
  • Capital structure: “We estimate… low 6x net-debt-to-adjusted-EBITDA… The offering and debt repayment were transformative” – CFO .

Q&A Highlights

  • Analysts focused on occupancy trajectories, SHOP margin expansion drivers, the use of IPO proceeds for deleveraging, and the durability of SS NOI guidance midpoints; management reiterated continued occupancy gains and disciplined external growth, with select operator partnerships to drive execution .
  • Call participants included BofA, Morgan Stanley, KeyBanc, Citi, RBC, Barclays, Green Street, and Colliers, underscoring broad sell-side engagement .
  • Management clarified benefits from interest rate swaps ($750M fixed SOFR at ~4.16%) and expected interest savings from debt repayment, supporting FY 2024 FFO/NFFO guidance framing .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global consensus estimates for AHTR were unavailable due to mapping constraints; therefore, direct comparisons to Wall Street consensus are not provided. Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
  • Public transcript pages reference an EPS miss and revenue beat versus third-party compiled estimates, but we anchor our analysis on company-reported figures and the declared FY24 guidance .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Operating momentum is broad-based, with SHOP and ISHC driving outsized Same-Store NOI growth; occupancy gains and labor normalization are tailwinds to margins in 2024 .
  • FY 2024 guide implies continued recovery with mid-single-digit SS NOI growth and improving FFO/NFFO per share; monitor execution against occupancy and margin assumptions .
  • Post-IPO deleveraging materially reduces interest expense and near-term maturities; the portfolio’s fixed-rate swaps and debt paydown support cash flow resilience as rates fluctuate .
  • Outpatient Medical remains stable with high margins and steady occupancy; renewal activity and retention underpin durable NOI despite minor sequential revenue/sq ft softness .
  • Segment mix is shifting toward operating platforms where AHR has clear levers (operator transitions, RIDEA structures, RevPOR management); this should sustain NOI momentum into 2024 .
  • Watch for additional non-core dispositions and disciplined external growth to further optimize the balance sheet and portfolio quality .
  • Near-term trading: catalysts include quarterly distribution continuity ($0.25/share), execution on guidance midpoints, and evidence of continued occupancy gains in SHOP/ISHC; medium-term, deleveraging plus embedded growth should support multiple and estimate revisions over time .

Additional Relevant Q4 2023 Press Releases

  • Quarterly distribution authorized for Q4 period at $0.25 per share (paid Jan 16, 2024 to record date Dec 27, 2023) .

Appendix: Segment Revenue and Cash NOI (Q4 Snapshot)

SegmentCash Revenue Q4 2023 ($USD Millions)Cash NOI Q4 2023 ($USD Millions)Notes
ISHC$285.12 $37.43 Occupancy 85.0%; SS NOI +13.9% YoY
Outpatient Medical$32.82 $20.81 Spot occupancy 89.2%; SS NOI +2.3% YoY
SHOP$48.05 $6.46 Occupancy 80.4%; SS NOI +44.9% YoY
Triple-Net Leased$12.74 $12.14 Avg operator occupancy 87.4%
Debt Security Investment$2.01 (interest) N/AContributes to revenue

Notes: Company-reported GAAP revenue and non-GAAP reconciliations (FFO, NFFO, Cash NOI) are provided in the Q4 2023 earnings release and supplemental .