AI
Arteris, Inc. (AIP)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q2 2025 delivered revenue at the top end of guidance ($16.50M, +13% YoY) and record KPIs (ACV+royalties $69.1M; RPO $99.3M, +28% YoY), but EPS was slightly below consensus as higher OpEx—largely FX-driven—offset gross-margin strength .
- Versus S&P Global consensus*, revenue was a small beat ($16.50M vs $16.35M*), while Primary EPS missed modestly (-$0.11 vs -$0.0975*); EBITDA was below consensus due to operating spending and FX *.
- Guidance: Q3 revenue $16.8–$17.2M and FY 2025 revenue $66–$70M were reiterated/tightened; FY non-GAAP operating loss widened to $10.5–$15.5M (from $7.0–$14.0M prior), citing FX headwinds .
- Strategic catalysts: AMD licensed FlexGen for high-performance AI chiplets; Arteris expanded multi-die/UCIe support and launched Magillem Packaging—strengthening AI and chiplet positioning and likely investor focus on medium-term ACV and RPO trajectory .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
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What Went Well
- Record ACV+royalties ($69.1M) and RPO ($99.3M), underscoring demand and backlog visibility; CEO: “record Annual Contract Value plus royalties... RPO... year-over-year increase of 28%” .
- Strategic wins: AMD licensed FlexGen “for high-performance data transport for its chiplets powering AI” across a broad product set; CEO highlighted FlexGen as “breakthrough technology” recognized with an AI Breakthrough Award .
- Platform expansion: broadened UCIe/AMBA support, EDA collaborations (Synopsys/Cadence), and RISC‑V partnerships; launch of Magillem Packaging to automate IP packaging for chiplets/SoCs .
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What Went Wrong
- EPS/EBITDA missed consensus* despite revenue beat, reflecting higher non-GAAP OpEx from FX; CFO: “OpEx is currently running higher... as a result of the weaker U.S. Dollar” *.
- Operating loss widened YoY (GAAP -$8.25M vs -$7.44M), with elevated R&D and sales investment to support growth and new product development .
- Free cash flow turned negative in Q2 (-$2.84M) versus positive in Q1, tied to working-capital timing and capital purchases .
Financial Results
Quarterly P&L summary (oldest → newest)
YoY: Q2 2025 revenue +13% YoY; non-GAAP operating loss flat YoY (both -$3.5M) .
Revenue breakdown by type (oldest → newest)
Key KPIs and liquidity (oldest → newest)
Consensus vs Actual (S&P Global; oldest → newest)
Values marked with * are from S&P Global.
Guidance Changes
Management attributed FY non-GAAP operating loss widening primarily to weaker USD vs EUR increasing OpEx .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- CEO on growth drivers: “Record Annual Contract Value plus royalties of $69.1 million… RPO of $99.3 million… we remain confident in Arteris’ long-term growth opportunity” .
- CEO on AMD: “FlexGen… provide high performance data transport in AMD chiplets powering AI… will be used… across AMD’s broad portfolio” .
- CFO on execution and margin: “We had a strong second quarter… revenue… at the top end of our guidance… Non-GAAP gross margin 91%” .
- CFO on guidance and FX: “OpEx is currently running higher… as a result of the weaker U.S. Dollar… we have assumed… prevailing foreign exchange rates remain at these levels” .
Q&A Highlights
- AMD scope and rationale: AMD extensively evaluated FlexGen vs alternatives and chose it to augment Infinity Fabric for non-coherent applications; multi-license, multi-product use including AI data center chiplet SoCs .
- Timing/magnitude: The AMD “whale” deal was contemplated in prior guidance; Arteris typically has “one or two” major deals per quarter .
- Chiplet market: ~30 heterogeneous chiplet projects observed now (~5% of ~600–700 SoCs), expected to rise toward ~30% of design starts over the next couple years .
- Book-to-bill: Management doesn’t monitor explicitly, but characterized RPO growth to nearly $100M (+28% YoY) as a strong leading indicator .
Estimates Context
- Q2 revenue beat: $16.50M actual vs $16.35M consensus* *.
- EPS miss: Primary EPS -$0.11 actual vs -$0.0975 consensus* *.
- EBITDA miss: -$7.40M actual vs -$2.72M consensus* *.
- FY 2025 consensus currently ~$68.97M revenue*, consistent with company’s $66–$70M guidance *.
Values marked with * are from S&P Global.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Execution remains solid: revenue at the high end and record ACV/RPO support durable top-line growth into 2H, while non-GAAP gross margins stay >90% .
- Near-term EPS risk skewed to OpEx/FX: FY non-GAAP operating loss widened due to FX; monitor EUR/USD and hiring cadence vs sales conversion .
- Strategic positioning improving: AMD FlexGen validation and expanded multi-die/UCIe ecosystem should enhance win rates in AI, automotive, and HPC chiplets .
- Watch free cash flow trajectory: Q1 positive FCF flipped to Q2 negative; FY FCF guide $1–$7M implies improved working-capital dynamics in 2H .
- KPI momentum is the stock’s narrative: Sustained RPO growth (+28% YoY) and rising ACV+royalties underpin visibility; design starts (25 in Q2) support future royalties .
- Estimates likely to tighten: Modest revenue beats and margin investments suggest consensus EPS adjustments may lag; monitor sell-side revisions post-call *.
- Medium-term thesis: Commercial System IP outsourcing cycle (AI/chiplets complexity) favors Arteris’ portfolio; investors should focus on ACV pipelines, ecosystem partnerships, and conversion of FlexGen evaluations into revenue .
Notes:
- All quantitative data and guidance are sourced from Arteris’ Q2 2025 8-K/press release and 10-Q, and the Q2 2025 earnings call transcript as cited.
- Consensus estimates marked with * are retrieved from S&P Global.