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AC

AAR CORP (AIR)·Q1 2026 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 FY26 delivered double‑digit growth and margin expansion: sales $739.6M (+11.8% y/y) with adjusted operating margin 9.7% (+60 bps y/y). Adjusted EPS was $1.08 (+27% y/y), and adjusted EBITDA was $86.7M (11.7% margin) .
  • Results exceeded Wall Street on revenue and on EPS vs S&P Global’s “Primary EPS” consensus: revenue beat by ~$50.1M* and adjusted EPS of $1.08 vs Primary EPS consensus of $0.98*; GAAP EPS was $0.95 . Values retrieved from S&P Global.
  • Parts Supply remained the engine (sales +27% y/y) with strong new parts Distribution and a meaningful pickup in USM; Integrated Solutions +10% y/y; Repair & Engineering organic +8% ex‑Landing Gear despite headline -1% y/y .
  • Initial Q2 FY26 outlook: sales growth of 7–10% off Q2 FY25 organic base ($665.7M) and adjusted operating margin of 9.6–10.0%; FY26 organic sales growth now “approaching 10%,” up from ~9% in July—an incremental raise .
  • Stock‑relevant narrative: accelerating Distribution wins (exclusive AmSafe Bridport defense deal), Trax software momentum (Delta, JetBlue) and Aerostrat acquisition expand higher‑quality mix; near‑term working capital investment weighed on Q1 cash flow but management expects positive OCF in Q2 and FY26 .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Parts Supply outperformed: sales +27% y/y to $317.8M; adjusted operating margin expanded to 12.9% from 12.1% . “We continue to win and grow in new parts distribution… averaging more than 20% organic growth in each of the last four years.” — John Holmes .
    • Software/IP momentum: Trax wins (Delta rollout; JetBlue upgraded to eMobility/cloud) and Aerostrat acquisition add scope and cross‑sell potential .
    • Margin execution: adjusted operating margin rose to 9.7% (9.1% prior‑year), driven by mix and efficiencies; adjusted EBITDA margin 11.7% (11.3% prior‑year) .
  • What Went Wrong

    • Cash flow: operating cash flow used was $(44.9)M as inventories rose $51.8M to support growth; management expects positive OCF over the balance of FY26 .
    • Repair & Engineering headline sales dipped 1% y/y to $214.6M due to Landing Gear divestiture; organic still +8% but requires continued integration/efficiency ramp .
    • Net leverage ticked to 2.82x from 2.72x in Q4, reflecting inventory build and the $15M Aerostrat acquisition; target remains 2.0–2.5x in FY26 .

Financial Results

Consolidated performance vs prior quarters

MetricQ3 FY25 (oldest)Q4 FY25Q1 FY26 (newest)
Revenue ($M)$678.2 $754.5 $739.6
GAAP EPS$(0.25) $0.95 $0.95
Adjusted EPS$0.99 $1.16 $1.08
Adjusted EBITDA Margin %12.0% 12.4% 11.7%
Adjusted Operating Margin %9.7% 10.5% 9.7%

Q1 FY26 actuals vs S&P Global consensus

MetricActualConsensus*Delta*
Revenue ($M)$739.6 $689.5*+$50.1*
Primary EPS$0.95 (GAAP) / $1.08 (Adjusted) $0.98*+$0.10* vs Adjusted EPS; −$0.03* vs GAAP EPS

Values retrieved from S&P Global. Note: Company emphasizes adjusted diluted EPS; S&P “Primary EPS” may not be directly comparable.

Segment performance (Q1 FY26 vs Q1 FY25)

SegmentSales Q1 FY25 ($M)Sales Q1 FY26 ($M)y/yOperating Income Q1 FY25 ($M)Operating Income Q1 FY26 ($M)Margin Q1 FY25Margin Q1 FY26
Parts Supply249.7 317.8 +27% 30.1 40.9 12.1% 12.9%
Repair & Engineering217.6 214.6 −1% 21.1 20.4 9.7% 9.5%
Integrated Solutions168.9 185.0 +10% 7.7 9.7 4.6% 5.2%
Expeditionary Services25.5 22.2 −13% (1.7) 3.0 −6.7% 13.5%

KPIs and mix

KPIQ1 FY26Q1 FY25
Commercial Mix71% of sales 71%
Government Mix29% of sales 29%
Net Debt ($M)$950.0 $942.7
Net Leverage (x)2.82x 2.82x (TTM calc)
Operating Cash Flow ($M)$(44.9) $(18.6)
Inventory Change ($M)$(51.8) (use of cash) $(14.8)
Avg. Diluted Shares (M)35.9 35.6

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Sales Growth (y/y, off Q2 FY25 organic $665.7M base)Q2 FY26N/A7%–10% New
Adjusted Operating MarginQ2 FY26N/A9.6%–10.0% New
Tax RateFY26 frameworkN/A~28% New
Organic Sales Growth (Full‑year)FY26~9% (referenced from July) “Approaching 10%” Raised

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3 FY25)Previous Mentions (Q4 FY25)Current Period (Q1 FY26)Trend
New parts DistributionUnison and Chromalloy exclusive distribution wins; Distribution led growth “Over 20% organic” Distribution; strong mix Continued double‑digit Distribution growth; share gains; AmSafe Bridport defense agreement Strengthening
Software (Trax)Cathay Pacific license; traction building Delta TechOps implementation; SIA Eng. and Amerijet wins JetBlue eMobility/cloud expansion; Aerostrat acquired; marketplace initiative in development Expanding scope
MRO capacity/efficiencyAirframe MRO throughput gains Launch of OKC & Miami expansions 15% new capacity coming online in 2026; sold out; paperless hangar ~60% rolled out Positive, sold‑out capacity
USM supplyIndustry tight but improving visibility implied N/A explicit“Meaningful pickup” in USM; supply loosening, still tight margins near‑term Improving supply; margins to follow
Leverage/CashNet leverage 3.06x; deleveraging expected 2.72x; strong OCF in Q4 2.82x on inventory/Aerostrat; expect positive OCF Q2/FY26 Near‑term uptick; improving outlook
Government programsGrowth and DLA/defense wins DLA Supply Chain Alliance charter Integrated Solutions +10% y/y; AmSafe defense distribution; DLA IDIQ up to $85M post‑Q Healthy pipeline

Management Commentary

  • “We delivered significant top-line growth with higher profitability… 17% organic adjusted sales growth… We continue to win and grow in new parts distribution.” — John Holmes .
  • “Adjusted EBITDA increased 18% to $86.7 million, and adjusted EBITDA margins increased to 11.7% from 11.3%.” — Sean Gillen .
  • “We invested over $50 million in inventory in the quarter to support future growth… We expect to be cash positive in Q2 and for the full fiscal year.” — Sean Gillen .
  • “In Repair & Engineering, our existing hangars have a multi‑year backlog, and the 15% new capacity coming online in Oklahoma City and Miami in calendar 2026 has also been sold out.” — John Holmes .
  • “We would maintain [mid‑teens+ outgrowth] outlook for distribution and would expect to continue to grow above market there.” — John Holmes .

Q&A Highlights

  • Distribution/Outlook: Parts Supply drives raised FY26 organic growth (“approaching 10%”); exclusive model with OEMs is taking share and opening doors to more bids .
  • Cross‑sell into Component Services: Product Support integration largely complete; early innings of leveraging airframe MRO leadership to redirect repair volumes to Dallas/Wellington; longer sales cycles vs parts .
  • USM Dynamics: Loosening supply aided Q1; margins in USM remain depressed vs history due to tight spreads; expect margin expansion as more assets hit the market .
  • Trax/Aerostrat: Three‑year earn‑out aligns incentives; two‑way synergies (Aerostrat into Trax base; Trax into Aerostrat base); marketplace initiative targeted for 1H 2026 updates .
  • Inventory Investment: Elevated in Q1 to support parts growth; balanced against objective to deliver positive OCF for remainder of FY26 .

Estimates Context

  • Q1 FY26 vs consensus (S&P Global): revenue $739.6M vs $689.5M estimate* (beat by ~$50.1M*); company reported GAAP EPS $0.95 and adjusted EPS $1.08 vs Primary EPS consensus $0.98* . Values retrieved from S&P Global.
  • Next quarter (Q2 FY26) consensus: revenue ~$760.7M*, Primary EPS ~$1.04*; management guided sales growth of 7–10% off $665.7M organic base (implying ~$712–$732M), and adjusted operating margin 9.6–10.0%, suggesting street revenue may be ahead of guidance run‑rate . Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Mix quality rising: Distribution and software (Trax/Aerostrat) continue to outgrow, supporting structurally better margins vs legacy cycles .
  • Execution credibility: Y/Y growth and y/y margin expansion alongside cost discipline (SG&A down y/y) and continued integration benefits .
  • Working capital is tactical: Inventory build supports Parts Supply acceleration; management targets positive OCF from Q2 onward—a key near‑term proof point .
  • Guidance vs Street: Q2 sales guide (7–10% growth off $665.7M) implies ~$712–$732M vs ~$761M* consensus; setup argues for conservative guide or potential estimate recalibration near‑term . Values retrieved from S&P Global.
  • Capacity sold‑out in MRO with 2026 expansions (OKC/Miami) already spoken for—visibility supports medium‑term growth and operating leverage .
  • USM optionality: Improving asset availability is a lever for Parts Supply margins over time, complementing strong Distribution .
  • De‑leveraging path intact: Despite Q1 tick‑up to 2.82x on growth investments, framework targets 2.0–2.5x in FY26—monitor cash conversion and inventory turns .

Appendix: Additional Data Points

  • Selected P&L and non‑GAAP reconciliations, cash flow, segment details, and net debt/TTM adjusted EBITDA calculations are provided in the company’s press release and 8‑K exhibits .

Footnote: Asterisks indicate values sourced from S&P Global consensus/estimates. Values retrieved from S&P Global.