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AAR CORP (AIR)·Q1 2026 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q1 FY26 delivered double‑digit growth and margin expansion: sales $739.6M (+11.8% y/y) with adjusted operating margin 9.7% (+60 bps y/y). Adjusted EPS was $1.08 (+27% y/y), and adjusted EBITDA was $86.7M (11.7% margin) .
- Results exceeded Wall Street on revenue and on EPS vs S&P Global’s “Primary EPS” consensus: revenue beat by ~$50.1M* and adjusted EPS of $1.08 vs Primary EPS consensus of $0.98*; GAAP EPS was $0.95 . Values retrieved from S&P Global.
- Parts Supply remained the engine (sales +27% y/y) with strong new parts Distribution and a meaningful pickup in USM; Integrated Solutions +10% y/y; Repair & Engineering organic +8% ex‑Landing Gear despite headline -1% y/y .
- Initial Q2 FY26 outlook: sales growth of 7–10% off Q2 FY25 organic base ($665.7M) and adjusted operating margin of 9.6–10.0%; FY26 organic sales growth now “approaching 10%,” up from ~9% in July—an incremental raise .
- Stock‑relevant narrative: accelerating Distribution wins (exclusive AmSafe Bridport defense deal), Trax software momentum (Delta, JetBlue) and Aerostrat acquisition expand higher‑quality mix; near‑term working capital investment weighed on Q1 cash flow but management expects positive OCF in Q2 and FY26 .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
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What Went Well
- Parts Supply outperformed: sales +27% y/y to $317.8M; adjusted operating margin expanded to 12.9% from 12.1% . “We continue to win and grow in new parts distribution… averaging more than 20% organic growth in each of the last four years.” — John Holmes .
- Software/IP momentum: Trax wins (Delta rollout; JetBlue upgraded to eMobility/cloud) and Aerostrat acquisition add scope and cross‑sell potential .
- Margin execution: adjusted operating margin rose to 9.7% (9.1% prior‑year), driven by mix and efficiencies; adjusted EBITDA margin 11.7% (11.3% prior‑year) .
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What Went Wrong
- Cash flow: operating cash flow used was $(44.9)M as inventories rose $51.8M to support growth; management expects positive OCF over the balance of FY26 .
- Repair & Engineering headline sales dipped 1% y/y to $214.6M due to Landing Gear divestiture; organic still +8% but requires continued integration/efficiency ramp .
- Net leverage ticked to 2.82x from 2.72x in Q4, reflecting inventory build and the $15M Aerostrat acquisition; target remains 2.0–2.5x in FY26 .
Financial Results
Consolidated performance vs prior quarters
Q1 FY26 actuals vs S&P Global consensus
Values retrieved from S&P Global. Note: Company emphasizes adjusted diluted EPS; S&P “Primary EPS” may not be directly comparable.
Segment performance (Q1 FY26 vs Q1 FY25)
KPIs and mix
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “We delivered significant top-line growth with higher profitability… 17% organic adjusted sales growth… We continue to win and grow in new parts distribution.” — John Holmes .
- “Adjusted EBITDA increased 18% to $86.7 million, and adjusted EBITDA margins increased to 11.7% from 11.3%.” — Sean Gillen .
- “We invested over $50 million in inventory in the quarter to support future growth… We expect to be cash positive in Q2 and for the full fiscal year.” — Sean Gillen .
- “In Repair & Engineering, our existing hangars have a multi‑year backlog, and the 15% new capacity coming online in Oklahoma City and Miami in calendar 2026 has also been sold out.” — John Holmes .
- “We would maintain [mid‑teens+ outgrowth] outlook for distribution and would expect to continue to grow above market there.” — John Holmes .
Q&A Highlights
- Distribution/Outlook: Parts Supply drives raised FY26 organic growth (“approaching 10%”); exclusive model with OEMs is taking share and opening doors to more bids .
- Cross‑sell into Component Services: Product Support integration largely complete; early innings of leveraging airframe MRO leadership to redirect repair volumes to Dallas/Wellington; longer sales cycles vs parts .
- USM Dynamics: Loosening supply aided Q1; margins in USM remain depressed vs history due to tight spreads; expect margin expansion as more assets hit the market .
- Trax/Aerostrat: Three‑year earn‑out aligns incentives; two‑way synergies (Aerostrat into Trax base; Trax into Aerostrat base); marketplace initiative targeted for 1H 2026 updates .
- Inventory Investment: Elevated in Q1 to support parts growth; balanced against objective to deliver positive OCF for remainder of FY26 .
Estimates Context
- Q1 FY26 vs consensus (S&P Global): revenue $739.6M vs $689.5M estimate* (beat by ~$50.1M*); company reported GAAP EPS $0.95 and adjusted EPS $1.08 vs Primary EPS consensus $0.98* . Values retrieved from S&P Global.
- Next quarter (Q2 FY26) consensus: revenue ~$760.7M*, Primary EPS ~$1.04*; management guided sales growth of 7–10% off $665.7M organic base (implying ~$712–$732M), and adjusted operating margin 9.6–10.0%, suggesting street revenue may be ahead of guidance run‑rate . Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Mix quality rising: Distribution and software (Trax/Aerostrat) continue to outgrow, supporting structurally better margins vs legacy cycles .
- Execution credibility: Y/Y growth and y/y margin expansion alongside cost discipline (SG&A down y/y) and continued integration benefits .
- Working capital is tactical: Inventory build supports Parts Supply acceleration; management targets positive OCF from Q2 onward—a key near‑term proof point .
- Guidance vs Street: Q2 sales guide (7–10% growth off $665.7M) implies ~$712–$732M vs ~$761M* consensus; setup argues for conservative guide or potential estimate recalibration near‑term . Values retrieved from S&P Global.
- Capacity sold‑out in MRO with 2026 expansions (OKC/Miami) already spoken for—visibility supports medium‑term growth and operating leverage .
- USM optionality: Improving asset availability is a lever for Parts Supply margins over time, complementing strong Distribution .
- De‑leveraging path intact: Despite Q1 tick‑up to 2.82x on growth investments, framework targets 2.0–2.5x in FY26—monitor cash conversion and inventory turns .
Appendix: Additional Data Points
- Selected P&L and non‑GAAP reconciliations, cash flow, segment details, and net debt/TTM adjusted EBITDA calculations are provided in the company’s press release and 8‑K exhibits .
Footnote: Asterisks indicate values sourced from S&P Global consensus/estimates. Values retrieved from S&P Global.