Air Industries Group - Earnings Call - Q2 2025

Executive Summary

• Q2 2025 revenue of $12.66M declined 6.7% YoY but beat S&P Global consensus of $12.0M; EPS of ($0.11) beat consensus of ($0.15), while EBITDA (SPGI basis) missed consensus ($0.57M actual vs $0.76M est). Management cited order delays and extended subcontractor lead times, plus higher non-cash stock comp, driving a net loss. Estimates from S&P Global marked with an asterisk; see disclaimer.
• Gross margin compressed to 16.0% (–350 bps YoY) and operating income fell to $8K from $752K YoY; net swung to a loss of $0.42M from a $0.30M profit in Q2’24.
• Outlook was reset: management now expects 2H25 to be lower than 1H25, with Q4 the strongest quarter; workforce reduction to lower annual payroll by ~$1.0M and July ATM raised nearly $4.0M to strengthen the balance sheet.
• Stock reaction catalysts: the 2H25 cut (near-term negative), improving adjusted EBITDA sequentially, record backlog commentary, and incremental aftermarket wins could support medium-term sentiment.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• Sequential improvement in Adjusted EBITDA to $0.893M from $0.576M in Q1 on cost control despite softer sales; management highlighted cost actions underway.
• Balance sheet fortification via ATM (~$4.0M gross proceeds) and record backlog backdrop; management reiterated long-term confidence.
• Aftermarket traction evidenced by $5.4M B-52 landing gear contract in July and additional $6.9M aftermarket awards in early September (post-quarter), aligning with the strategic push into MRO spares.

What Went Wrong

• Revenue and profitability deterioration YoY: net sales down 6.7%, gross margin down 350 bps to 16.0%, operating income fell to $8K, and net loss of $0.42M vs prior-year profit.
• Operational headwinds: delayed customer orders and extended subcontractor lead times; non-cash stock compensation inflated OpEx (up 6.8% YoY in Q2; larger step-up was evident in Q1).
• Guidance reset: 2H25 guided lower than 1H25, offset partially by cost reductions and expectation that Q4 will be the strongest quarter.

Transcript

Speaker 0

Welcome to the Air Industries Group's second quarter of 2025 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. A question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone would require operator assistance, please press star zero on your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. This call may contain forward-looking statements as defined in Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 as amended, including statements regarding, among other things, the company's business strategy and growth strategy. Express and quickly identified forward-looking statements speak only as of the date this statement is made. These forward-looking statements are based largely on our company's expectations and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, some of which are beyond our control and cannot be predicted or quantified.

Decision developments and actual results could differ materially from those set forth with, contemplated by, or underlying the forward-looking statements. In light of these risks and uncertainties, there can be no assurance that the forward-looking information will prove to be accurate. This call does not constitute an offer to purchase any securities nor solicitation of a proxy, consent, authorization, or agent designation with respect to a meeting of the company's shareholders. At this time, I would now like to turn the call over to Lou Melluzzo, President and CEO. Please go ahead, sir.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Phil. Thank you all for joining us today. There is no avoiding the fact that our results in the second quarter and six months of 2025 were disappointing. In the second quarter, we faced headwinds. Delays in customer approvals and extended lead times from subcontractors definitely impacted our results. Combined with higher non-cash stock compensation, we had a net loss for the quarter. Despite this, adjusted EBITDA for the first half remained positive. This resulted from the ability to manage costs. To further increase profitability, we have implemented cost-cutting initiatives, including a workforce reduction that will reduce annual payroll by some $1 million. The savings may be a little bit more. Looking to the second half, reflecting the impact of these issues, we have adjusted our outlook. We now expect overall second half results in 2025 to be lower than the first half.

We do believe that the fourth quarter will be the strongest quarter of the year. In spite of recent headwinds, I remain confident of our long-term business outlook. In early July 2025, we successfully completed an at-the-market equity offering, raising nearly $4 million in gross proceeds from the sale of 1,353,000 common shares, further strengthening our balance sheet. Our backlog, reflecting sustained demand for our products, reached record levels in the first half of 2025. The long lead times for raw materials and the long time necessary to manufacture our highly complex, sophisticated products mean the sales from our extended backlog will begin to be realized in fiscal 2026 and in future years. An example highlights this. We recently announced a contract worth over $5 million for landing gear components for the B-52 aircraft. We have ordered the required raw material and expect it will arrive in mid-2026.

We anticipate making the first deliveries late in the fourth quarter of 2026, but the overwhelming percentage of sales and deliveries will be in 2027. That means a July 2025 order yields deliveries in 2027, a year and a half or up to two years later. Since returning from the Paris Air Show in late June, our business development team has been extremely busy following up on new opportunities. We conducted several dozen meetings during the show, encompassing both customers, prospects, and suppliers. The meetings were fruitful in terms of assessing the current business climate, future opportunities, and engaging with our supply chain. With that said, I'd like to turn this call over to Scott, who will discuss the financial results in more detail and come back for some closing comments. Scott?

Speaker 0

Thank you, Lou, and good afternoon, everyone. As Lou mentioned, our results for the second quarter and the first six months of 2025 fell short. Let me discuss the results in some more detail. The consolidated net sales for the second quarter ended June 30, 2025, were $12.7 million. This represents a decrease of about $800,000, or 6.7%, for the same quarter in 2024. Gross profit was $2 million. It represents 16% of sales for Q2. When pricing is moderated, prices are still increasing. We have been very successful in controlling our operating expenses. Adjusting for non-cash stock compensation expense, our consolidated operating costs were slightly lower this year as compared to 2024. Operating income of $8,000 in the second quarter of 2025 is compared to operating income of $752,000 in Q1 of 2024.

We had a net loss of $422,000 or $0.11 per share during Q2 of 2025, as compared to net income of $298,000 or $0.09 per share in Q2 of 2024. For the six months ended June 30, 2025, our adjusted EBITDA was $1,469,000, a decrease of $306,000 or 17% from the prior year's six-month period. Let me quickly highlight some items on our balance sheet. Our total debt has declined by a little more than $1 million. Inventory has increased by about $1.3 million. Cash receivable has decreased by close to $2 million, and accounts payable and accrued expenses have increased by approximately $1.2 million. As Lou mentioned earlier, we completed our at-the-market equity offering in early July, raising nearly $4 million, selling over 1 million shares at an average price of about $3.95 per share.

This enhances our balance sheet, increasing our liquidity and reducing our net debt as of July by nearly $4 million. I will return the call over to Lou.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Scott. 2025 has been an interesting year for aerospace. The administration has unveiled plans to fund the F-47, which is a sixth-generation fighter awarded to Boeing. There is talk of the E-2D crossing the lines and being adopted by the Air Force. There's a proposal on the table for a new F/A-XX, which is a sixth-generation fighter for the Navy, which would replace the F-18 and would be in support of the F-35C. As part providers to these big OEMs and government direct, we are in exciting times in this business. I would like to highlight some of the recent accomplishments that Air Industries Group has had. We've been on a mission to recover from a decreased revenue stream with certain legacy customers by reinforcing relationships with our other existing customers. We have made a big push to add new clients, new aircraft platforms, and expand into new markets.

There's strong and tangible evidence that we've succeeded at doing some of that. We've received the largest long-term agreement in our history from an established customer. Northrop Grumman, a longtime client, honored us with their prestigious Supplier Excellence Award. We have greatly increased our content on the CH-53K helicopter, which is a new and fast-growing and important platform. We have received more than $10 million in new orders from new and existing clients for the aftermarket product. This is a strong validation of our success in further penetrating into the aftermarket. Despite the challenges of the past several quarters, I remain fully convinced that we will continuously improve and will monetize our large backlog. With that, I'd like to open up the call for the Q&A portion. If you have any questions.

Speaker 0

Ladies and gentlemen, if you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad and the confirmation sign will indicate your line in the question queue. If you press star two, you get the right to remove your question from the queue. For participants, you may speak to a permit. It may be necessary to pick up your headset before pressing the star key. One moment, please, while we poll for questions. Our first question comes from the line of César Novo Gorchev with Laras Capital, BTC.

Speaker 2

Hello, and thank you for taking my question. I'm a new investor in your company, so I am a partner. I'll give you if I'm asking the questions because maybe they're a little bit basic, but I have quite a few, so maybe I'll ask a couple and if nobody else, then I'll ask a few more. My first one is about your credit facilities. Your credit facilities are maturing in December, and right now you, I think, violated some of the covenants, which don't seem to be all that critical because they're so possible. Could you talk a little bit how you guys, because you are probably not going to have a very good year this year, a lot of orders deferred to the next year, so for a little bit, you kind of need to, you know, survive with your, you know, liquidity.

How's your conversation with the current lender? Do you think that will be expanded or are you talking to some other lenders? Could you guys talk a little bit about that?

Speaker 0

Thank you for the question, Igor. We are in conversations with our current lender as we speak. They have been very supportive of us over the past several years, and I am confident that we will come to some sort of extension with them. I couldn't possibly say on what terms that would be, but I do not believe we will have an issue. Further, as I indicated before, we did recently successfully raise about $4 million, so that only enhances and adds to our liquidity for the remainder of the year.

Speaker 2

Okay. Once you touched upon the raise, was it an opportunistic raise? Because if my math serves me correctly, in July, it was on a day when your stock jumped for a short period of time above $4, and then just because of, I guess, a new order? Or this is something you were planning to do, or that was a good opportunity to raise knowing that your quarter is not going to be particularly strong?

Speaker 0

Back in December of 2024, we started this process of we filed an F-3 that was effective in December of 2024. We started raising money then. We raised some money at the end of the year, as I said. In the first quarter, through March, we had raised some additional funds. We had restarted this process, I want to say, in late June prior to the market doing that in early July. It was something that was already out there in the world. At the time, the stock went took off that way. It just happened to work out.

Speaker 2

I know it's a little bit early to talk about this, but given your, I think everything is going to be okay past December with your lender. Do you think as things look at us through the end of the year, you will give another capital raise, or do you think you're okay for now?

Speaker 0

I would say that we are probably okay for now. I don't have anything currently in the works for that, but we'll see what time brings.

Speaker 2

Okay. Let's, if you don't mind, just a couple more questions, and I'll get to the back of the queue. You don't really have any significant European customers, but now the situation has changed, especially with the new tariffs where Europe is almost obligated to buy more from the U.S. and also very increased European defense spending. I think this is where the biggest increase is happening. Do you anticipate getting some of the European sales, or is this not something you're actively working on?

Speaker 3

You know, Igor, I think some of the we sell not directly. In some cases, we do, but it's not a big portion of our business. A lot of the spares and other things like that that we sell directly to the OEMs make their way over to, you know, globally. It's not just the U.S.-based. If our OEMs will have greater content for spares, certainly. If the government, you know, otherwise, they're selling to the U.S. government predominantly. It might have an impact, but I think it's a little bit too early to say. As far as tariffs, although it does not affect us directly, all in all, we have one product in our entire company that we buy material from overseas that is tariff-prone. That's the direct path through to our client as per our contract.

Other than that, the tariffs will probably affect the OEM, you know, the bigs, the Pratt's, and the Gorchev, and so forth and that. We've got some protection in that game. We're hoping that our sales will increase because of what's happening, but it's too early to tell.

Speaker 2

Okay. You anticipated my last question, asked specifically about the input of materials, especially now with steel tariffs and other raw material tariffs and things like that. Do you have a lot of contract protection? In other words, is it built? Is the price margin already built in as the cost of the components will go?

Speaker 0

As we were saying, there's only one product that we manufacture that has material that comes from a foreign source. That contract specifically has a price protection clause in it that if the cost of the material increases by more than 5%, contractually, they are bound to pay the difference. We have complete price protection basically built into that contract. That is the only contract that has foreign material in it.

Speaker 2

I understand that, if I just may clarify, obviously, you buy the rest from U.S. manufacturers, but U.S. manufacturers eventually are going to have to raise the price of their components. I'm asking if they raise the price of their component, would you be forced to swallow the extra cost, or is that something you should have protected?

Speaker 3

In some cases, probably half the cases, the product is supplied to us by the OEMs. If they raise the prices, it's on them. In other cases, our clients have been very willing to work with us if it's outside of the scope of the contract. Anything that we can put price protection in at the early stage, we do.

Speaker 2

Okay, I think that's a good answer. Thank you very much for being patient with my questions, and I'll get back to you with somebody else.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Igor.

Speaker 0

Thank you. Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Ethan Berenbaum, private investors. Please proceed.

Speaker 1

Good afternoon. Thank you for taking my question. Just to clarify why sales are going down. I'm not clear. If you could just clarify some more, and hopefully, sales will start increasing. Thank you.

Speaker 3

Thank you for the question. Sales going down right now is a timing issue. We've got some customer approvals that just did not materialize timely enough to make the quarter, and a few other things of that nature. We got some first articles that have not come back on time. Our backlog is still very healthy. It's the largest backlog we've ever had. Materials that we thought would take six months, nine months, are taking a year, year and a half. There is a lag in there in what's going on in the industry.

Speaker 1

Thank you very much.

Speaker 0

Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, please press star one on the telephone keypad. The next question comes from the line of Lawrence Chase, private investors. Please proceed.

Speaker 1

Yes. I just wonder, given that the sales have been essentially flat or even going down for years now, I wonder if you've considered selling the company to maybe a larger, to a larger firm, and maybe they could make things move better.

Speaker 3

That's a great question, Lawrence. Sales have, you know, in our Connecticut operations, we have grown three years in a row to the tune of about 60%, 50%, and 40% year after year. In our New York operations, a few years back, we had a big client move some work offshore, to Poland, to be exact. We've made that work back up. Although it looks like sales have remained stagnant, we kind of built up from, you know, sea level, and we're moving up. We have seen some growth. It certainly has not come at the rate I think you're happy with, judging by the question, but we have seen some growth. To answer the second portion of your question as to why we haven't sold, we're a public company. If an opportunity should arise, we're always either going to buy or sell.

That's what a public company does, and it needs to do what's right for their shareholders. I hope that answered your question, Lawrence.

Speaker 1

I guess it is. I've been a shareholder for a very long time, and it just seems to me like it's always a matter of the truck is in the mail, but it never gets here. We're now at $12 million, and I don't think we've been lower than that that I can remember in quarters for a very long time. We have all of this, we're always told about the great backlog and all, but it never seems to result in better numbers for the quarter. I just wondered if maybe somebody else could take the apparently ostensible expertise that's there and make things work together. That was all I wondered.

Speaker 3

I can't answer that question, but as I said before, if an opportunity arises, I'm sure that our SHAREHOLDERS and our board would approve it.

Speaker 1

Okay.

Speaker 3

At least would consider it.

Speaker 1

Would consider it. Right.

Speaker 0

The next question comes again from the line of Igor Novo Goretzka with Laras Capital. Please proceed.

Speaker 2

Thank you for giving me an opportunity to do so. My next question is about your backlog. Obviously, you have a record backlog, and I think that's why a lot of investors are potentially excited by the future of the company. Could you just tell me historically how much of the backlog is actually historically converted into the actual order? My understanding is order time series is at least all cancelable, right, because that's mostly like the government orders. What is your historical sort of conversion percentage of a backlog to the order?

Speaker 0

The backlog that we put out there is two parts. It is our firm backlog and our full backlog. Our firm backlog indicates an amount that cannot really be canceled. It means that we have a firm order against it. If it were to be canceled, there would be a termination liability. Typically, once an order is placed and it gets into the full backlog, meaning that it's just an order, as time progresses, we get releases against it, which then turn into sales. Obviously, these orders are long-term agreements, long-term orders. There is time over the course of several years where there would be releases against it.

Speaker 3

Our firm fully funded backlog right now, I think, Scott, correct me if I'm wrong, sits at about $120-plus million.

Speaker 0

That is the current state.

Speaker 3

Those are orders that are fully funded and release on it over the next 18 months.

Speaker 0

18 to 24, yeah.

Speaker 3

18 to 24, I'm sorry. That's kind of what our guiding light, that's kind of what we go by. Order awards, you know, that shed out, go out six, seven years, which nobody knows what's going to happen in seven years, but this is what we quoted and this is what they committed to, but not against a full funded, you know, RNXF of 270.

Speaker 2

Okay. My final question is about the overall defense spending on the U.S. side. There was several months ago, there was a lot of concern, especially with Elon Musk being in the government who said that all the planes and helicopters are obsolete and everything is going to be drone. I guess now that he's no longer there, what's the overall mood of using the aviation and traditional planes and helicopters or how they're looking over the years from a sort of structural philosophy point of view and direction point of view of the Defense Department?

Speaker 3

All right. Although I'm not a mind reader, I can tell you that drones will only aid manned aircraft, will only be in accordance with. I don't see a manned aircraft going anywhere, at least in my lifetime. They are a great product, and they're inexpensive to build, and they're expendable, and they have a lot of pluses to them. They don't have a human brain, and that's not going to go away anytime soon. They would not be spending the money on the F-47, the new aircraft that was just awarded to Boeing. They would not be putting that kind of dollars into the budget if they thought that drones were going to solve the problems in the next three years. I remain confident that the human aircraft will be around for a long time.

Speaker 2

All right. Thank you. I don't have any more questions.

Speaker 0

Thank you for your questions. We appreciate it. There are no further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the call back to Lou Melluzzo for closing remarks.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Judge. Thank you all for taking the time to be on the call today and for your question and your interest in the Air Industries Group, and we look forward to talking to you on the next call. Thanks, Phil. I think you can disconnect.

Speaker 0

Thank you. This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.