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AirJoule Technologies Corp. (AIRJ)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 delivered GAAP net income of $14.88M and diluted EPS of $0.26, driven by non‑cash fair value gains (earnout and subject vesting liabilities), while operations remain pre‑revenue and focused on product development .
  • Cash and equivalents ended at $23.00M; subsequent $15M PIPE led by GE Vernova bolsters runway toward 2026 commercialization milestones .
  • S&P Global consensus Primary EPS (normalized) was −$0.06 vs actual normalized −$0.062*, essentially in line; revenue consensus was $0.00*, consistent with no revenue recognized* .
  • Commercial traction progressed: ASU purchase of an A250 system (delivery expected Sep 2025), Dubai showcase operating, and deepening GE Vernova collaboration on waste‑heat‑to‑water integration .
  • Near‑term stock catalysts: validation from ASU, additional pilot deployments (up to three in H2 2025), and continued evidence of <160 Wh/L energetics for waste‑heat‑driven water generation .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • GE Vernova‑anchored $15M PIPE strengthened balance sheet and affirmed strategic JV commitment; management reiterated full funding for 2025–2026 commercialization efforts .
  • Operational milestones: ASU agreement for A250 (independent validation), Dubai unit showcasing performance, and expansion of Newark, DE facility to 35,000 sq ft with test chambers and coating line .
  • Management quote on momentum and market need: “AirJoule® is gaining meaningful traction as industries look for innovative ways to secure sustainable water… With a strong balance sheet and a fully funded path to commercialization, we are well‑positioned…” .

What Went Wrong

  • Results remain pre‑revenue; profitability was non‑operational, driven by fair value remeasurement and other non‑cash items rather than product sales .
  • Equity loss from the JV reflects continued development stage and spend cadence (−$2.23M in Q1 2025) .
  • Energy efficiency targets still advancing toward sub‑100 Wh/L; Dubai’s current unit operates above the showcased <160 Wh/L benchmark, with upgrades pending .

Financial Results

Sequential trends (oldest → newest)

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Net Income ($USD)$35,016,858 $215,695,562 $14,878,658
Diluted EPS ($USD)$0.61 $4.03 $0.26
Loss from Operations ($USD)$(2,376,855) $(65,913,085) $(3,190,200)
Equity Loss from Investment in AirJoule JV ($USD)$(2,336,554) $(5,321,367) $(2,230,278)
Cash & Equivalents ($USD)$30,687,544 $28,021,748 $23,000,515

Year-over-Year (Q1 2024 vs Q1 2025)

MetricQ1 2024Q1 2025
Net Income ($USD)$181,555,292 $14,878,658
Diluted EPS ($USD)$4.18 $0.26
Loss from Operations ($USD)$(56,391,309) $(3,190,200)
Equity Loss from Investment in AirJoule JV ($USD)$(26,382) $(2,230,278)

Estimates vs Actuals (S&P Global)

MetricQ1 2025 ConsensusQ1 2025 Actual
Primary EPS (Normalized)−$0.06*−$0.06187*
Revenue ($USD)$0.00*$0.00 (no revenue recognized)*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

KPIs and Operating Metrics

KPIQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Energy per Liter Achieved (Wh/L, using low-grade waste heat)—<160 Wh/L demonstrated (80°F, 60% RH) Continuing below 160 Wh/L focus; productization underway
Planned Pre‑Production Water Capacity (liters/day)—4,000 L/day target in H2 2025 Reaffirmed H2 2025 pilots; up to three deployments
Facility Footprint (Newark, DE)—Ramping operations Expanded to ~35,000 sq ft; test chambers and coating line
Cash & Equivalents ($USD)$30.69M $28.02M $23.00M; pro forma ~$38M with PIPE

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent Guidance (Q1 2025)Change
JV BudgetFY 2025~$13–15M (Q4 2024 call) ~$13–15M reiterated Maintained
Pre‑Production UnitsH2 2025H2 2025 pilots (up to 3) Up to 3 pilot projects in H2 2025 Maintained
ASU A250 Delivery2025—September 2025 expected New/Specified
Cash Runway2025–2026Fully funded for 2025 Fully funded for 2025–2026 operations and JV Raised (extended horizon)

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ3 2024 (Nov)Q4 2024 (Mar)Q1 2025 (May)Trend
Waste‑Heat‑to‑WaterIntroduced concept; Middle East demand Demonstrated <160 Wh/L energetics; data center use case and cost <$1.5/m³ GE Vernova strategic project; continued <160 Wh/L focus Momentum building; technical validation → partnerships
Data Centers (AI/HPC)Initial engagements PUE/WUE improvement narrative; pilots planned Increased interest; pilots targeted H2 2025 Strengthening commercial pipeline
ASU Independent Validation—Planning with NSF/Southwest initiatives Signed agreement; Sep 2025 delivery Firmed timeline and credibility
Dubai Showcase—Unit operational, wide climate profile Ongoing deployment; VIP exposure Continued market development
Manufacturing & DFMNewark facility ramp Scale and productization; coating line Expanded to 35k sq ft; DFM focus Execution progressing
Regulatory/Certification (Texas)—Discussed potable standards pursuit Pursuing TCEQ potable certification; Texas use cases From concept to certification path
Financing$61.75M 2024 raise Committed equity facility ($30M) $15M PIPE (GE Vernova led) Capital base strengthened

Management Commentary

  • CEO on traction and funding: “With a strong balance sheet and a fully funded path to commercialization, we are well‑positioned to meet rising demand for reliable, energy‑efficient water solutions…” .
  • CCO on energetics: “We’re… improving our energetics… even below the 160 watt‑hours per liter that we announced on our last earnings call.” .
  • Executive Chair on independent validation: “Our hope is that ASU will produce peer‑reviewed, published independent research… utilized by all our potential customers…” .
  • CEO on waste heat: “70% of the energy produced on this planet is lost to waste heat… we eliminate the compressor, so the reliability goes up, and the harvesting of pure distilled water has a huge value.” .

Q&A Highlights

  • Validation focus: ASU deployment to produce independent scientific data; Dubai unit provides broad climate operational data and high‑visibility demonstrations .
  • Product strategy: A250 (core module) vs A1000 (scale economics); expectation that A1000 offers superior levelized cost of water, while A250 serves dehumidification and pilot needs .
  • Use of proceeds: PIPE funds accelerate DFM, certifications, and pilot deployments; continued progress on energetics and productivity .
  • Certification: Pursuit of potable water certification with Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) and NSF pathways .
  • JV economics: 50/50 economics with capital charges; matched $5M contributions; sufficient liquidity to fund commercialization into 2026 .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global Q1 2025 Primary EPS consensus −$0.06 vs actual normalized −$0.06187, essentially in line*, while GAAP diluted EPS was +$0.26 due to non‑cash fair value gains (earnout/subject vesting liabilities) and JV accounting .
  • Revenue consensus $0.00*, consistent with no revenue recognized* .
  • Low coverage persists (EPS and revenue each with 1 estimate); target price consensus mean $10.375 with two estimates*, implying early‑stage analyst engagement.

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Near‑term validation milestones (ASU, Dubai, H2 2025 pilots) are critical catalysts to de‑risk product performance and accelerate commercial commitments .
  • The core investment narrative is waste‑heat‑to‑water at <160 Wh/L, targeting data centers and industrial customers where distilled water has high strategic and economic value .
  • Expect continued GAAP earnings volatility from fair value remeasurement and JV equity method impacts until revenue commences; focus on cash runway and execution KPIs .
  • A250 opens an earlier dehumidification revenue path with up to ~80% energy savings vs desiccant incumbents, broadening platform value and customer entry points .
  • Regulatory and certification progress (e.g., TCEQ/NSF) can unlock municipal and industrial deployments, particularly in water‑stressed regions (Texas, Middle East) .
  • Partnerships (GE Vernova, Carrier) enhance engineering validation and commercialization pathways; watch for formal integration pilots and expanded MOUs .
  • Trading implication: stock likely responds to concrete pilot results, ASU data/peer‑review outputs, and visible customer commitments; estimate frameworks should track normalized EPS and capex needs rather than GAAP EPS alone .