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AirJoule Technologies Corp. (AIRJ)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2025 reflected continued pre-revenue commercialization progress, with net loss of $4.01M and diluted EPS of $-0.07; cash ended at $26.0M, supporting operations through 2026 .
  • EPS came in above consensus (Primary EPS estimate -$0.085 vs actual diluted EPS -$0.07) — a modest beat; EBITDA missed consensus (est. -$2.23M vs actual -$3.01M) as productization and JV losses weighed; revenue remained $0, in line . Values retrieved from S&P Global.
  • Management highlighted catalysts: Water Purchase Agreements (WPAs) for recurring revenue, selection as a winner by the Net Zero Innovation Hub for Data Centers, ribbon cutting of the Newark manufacturing/test facility, and 24/7 Hubbard, TX field operations .
  • Guidance: JV spend expected at the high end of prior range (~$17–$18M) for 2025; sufficient liquidity to support corporate and JV operations through commercialization in 2026; additional $5M contributed to the JV post quarter .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • 24/7 Hubbard, TX field demo producing clean water and validating performance across conditions; hyperscalers visited the operating system, accelerating commercial adoption .
  • Winner selection by Net Zero Innovation Hub (Google, Microsoft, Data4, Vertiv, Schneider, Danfoss) — strong visibility and validation for sustainable data center water/cooling; planned testbed showcase in Denmark .
  • Manufacturing and testing capacity scaled: Newark, DE facility ribbon cutting; added environmental test chamber to validate across broader ranges and accelerate product development .

What Went Wrong

  • EBITDA below consensus; continued JV losses and fair-value liability increases drove net loss in Q3 (equity loss from JV: -$1.95M) . Values retrieved from S&P Global.
  • No revenue yet; management reiterated commercialization in 2026, with near-term updates pending negotiations; investors must continue to underwrite execution risk .
  • Variability in fair-value liabilities (Earnout and Subject Vesting) introduced non-cash P&L noise, partially reversing prior gains; Earnout change in fair value was a $1.73M loss in Q3 .

Financial Results

MetricQ3 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD)$0 $0 $0 $0
Net Income ($USD)$35,016,858 $14,878,658 $2,513,213 $(4,012,159)
Diluted EPS ($USD)$0.61 $0.26 $0.04 $(0.07)
EBIT ($USD)$(4,554,617) $(3,190,200) $(4,338,066) $(3,007,627)
EBITDA ($USD)$(4,553,531)*$(3,188,612)*$(4,447,446)*$(3,004,756)*
Cash & Equivalents ($USD)$30,687,544 $23,000,515 $30,502,711 $26,007,725

Values with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Vs. Wall Street consensus for Q3 2025:

  • Revenue: est. $0.0; actual $0 — inline. Values retrieved from S&P Global.
  • Primary EPS: est. -$0.085; actual diluted EPS -$0.07 — bold beat. Values retrieved from S&P Global and .
  • EBITDA: est. -$2.23M; actual -$3.00M — bold miss. Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Consensus vs Actual (Q3 2025)ConsensusActual
Revenue ($USD)$0.0$0
Primary EPS ($USD)$(0.085)Diluted EPS $(0.07)
EBITDA ($USD)$(2,225,000)$(3,004,756)*

Values with * retrieved from S&P Global.

KPIs and Operating Metrics:

KPIQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Sorbent chamber output (liters/day at ~60% RH)—100 100; expected to reach 150
A1000 expected output (liters/day; 16 chambers)—>2,000 >2,000 (~500 gallons)
A250 energy use vs desiccant wheel (kWh/L)—A250 ~0.4 vs desiccant ~2.0 A250 ~0.4 vs desiccant ~2.0
Equity loss from JV ($USD)$(2,230,278) $(2,089,667) $(1,948,586)

Segment Breakdown: single segment; net results incorporate equity-method JV losses and fair-value changes .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
AirJoule JV spend ($USD)FY 2025~$17–$18M High end of ~$17–$18M Maintained at high end
Liquidity runwayThrough commercializationSufficient to support corporate + JV ops Reaffirmed sufficient liquidity; additional $5M contributed to JV in Oct-2025 Maintained / strengthened
Commercialization timing2026Target productization and deployments Reaffirmed 2026 deployments; A250 likely before A1000 Clarified sequencing
Revenue updatesNear termTo be provided as negotiations finalize Updates as WPA/system sales are finalized Maintained (no ranges yet)

Dividend, OI&E, tax rate guidance: not provided.

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 2025, Q2 2025)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
AI/data centers water & energyEmphasized waste-heat-to-water; hyperscaler MOU Strong tailwinds; Net Zero Innovation Hub win; water security a constraint Strengthening demand/validation
Supply chain/tariffsFlexibility; evaluating domestic sources (BASF, others) Continued focus but not a headwind update in Q3 callStable/managed
WPAs (Water Purchase Agreements)Emerging model discussed Many dozens of discussions; AirJoule-owned/operated; pricing vs trucking $0.50–$0.75/gal Expanding pipeline
Regulatory/validationTCEQ potable certification pursuit; Dubai demo; ASU validation planned ASU delivery in Oct; independent validation; data center testbed in EU Accelerating validation
Product performanceA250 energy savings vs desiccant; A1000 scaling Chamber output 100→150 L/day target; >2,000 L/day for A1000 Improving productivity
Manufacturing/TestNewark facility buildout Ribbon cutting; added test chamber Capacity expanded
DefenseAnti-corrosion collab; ERDC CRADA Agreement in place; expand deployments starting 2026 Broadening use cases

Management Commentary

  • “AirJoule Technologies is addressing emerging opportunities driven by powerful macro trends...We are positioning AirJoule at the center of this convergence” — CEO Matt Jore .
  • “AirJoule delivers distilled quality water with zero dissolved solids...meeting EPA and FDA bottled water standards” — Chief Commercialization Officer Bryan Barton .
  • “We have sufficient cash and liquidity to support both our operations and those of the JV...we filed a shelf registration statement to maintain optionality” — CFO Stephen Pang .
  • “You will likely see the A250 product launch before A1000...same machine, process determines dehumidifier vs water generator” — Bryan Barton .

Q&A Highlights

  • Hubbard data catalyzing adoption; hyperscalers touring the site; GE Vernova integration progressing toward demonstration projects .
  • WPA model: AirJoule-owned/operated assets; customers pay per gallon; strong interest; priced against trucking water (~$0.50–$0.75/gal) — potentially accretive and selective deployment in 2026–2027 .
  • ASU validation: independent assessment of output, energy, and water quality; Phoenix humidity profile expands sorbent research; certifications are location-dependent (e.g., TCEQ in Texas) .
  • R&D spend in Q3: negative due to reversal of accrued royalties after amended licensing; most R&D now borne at JV level .

Estimates Context

  • Q3 2025 results vs consensus: revenue inline ($0), EPS beat (Primary EPS est. -$0.085 vs diluted EPS -$0.07), EBITDA miss (est. -$2.23M vs actual -$3.00M). Values retrieved from S&P Global and .
  • Implication: modest positive surprise on EPS, offset by deeper EBITDA loss; with no revenue yet, revisions likely focus on timing of WPA/system deployments and cost curve/productivity assumptions.
MetricConsensus (Q3 2025)Actual
Revenue ($USD)$0.0$0
Primary EPS ($USD)$(0.085)Diluted EPS $(0.07)
EBITDA ($USD)$(2,225,000)$(3,004,756)*

Values with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • EPS upside with no revenue suggests non-cash drivers still dominate; watch fair-value liabilities and JV losses as commercialization nears .
  • WPAs could accelerate adoption with recurring revenue and investment-grade offtake profiles; pricing competitive vs water trucking, creating potential high-IRR assets .
  • Validation momentum: Net Zero Innovation Hub win, ASU delivery, and Hubbard operations; strong signals for data centers and arid industrial markets .
  • Manufacturing readiness improving (Newark facility, additional test chamber) — supports 2026 deployments; A250 likely first to market .
  • Liquidity runway intact; JV spend at high end for 2025 and incremental $5M post quarter — reduces financing overhang near term but monitor capital commitments to JV ($82.3M remaining) .
  • Near-term catalysts: WPA signings, defense anti-corrosion deployments, data center testbed results; updates could drive estimate revisions and stock narrative .
  • Risk: execution to revenue remains key; no revenue yet and EBITDA miss vs consensus underscore importance of productization cost-out and chamber productivity gains .

Values with * retrieved from S&P Global.