AI
APARTMENT INVESTMENT & MANAGEMENT CO (AIV)·Q2 2020 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Resilient quarter amid COVID-19: Pro forma FFO/share rose 5% YoY to $0.63 and AFFO/share rose 8% YoY to $0.55; consolidated rental revenue declined ~2% YoY on bad debt, lower commercial and waived fees . Same Store NOI fell 1.4% YoY (down 4.5% QoQ) on lower occupancy and higher bad debt, partially offset by expense control .
- Collections and occupancy troughing: AIV recognized 98.4% of residential revenue in Q2 (1.6% bad debt); cash collections during Q2 were 97.2% of recognized revenue by July 31; July occupancy ran 93.8% and blended lease rates were -1.1% (new -5.6%, renewal +3.4%) with management indicating strength in DC/Boston/Denver/San Diego vs pressure in LA/Miami .
- Balance sheet fortified: $1.2B of liquidity (cash/revolver), refinancing lowered weighted-average borrowing cost to 3.69%; net leverage to Adjusted EBITDAre at 8.1x with a path to targets via NOI growth and selective sales .
- Guidance and catalysts: No formal 2020 financial guidance was reiterated; dividend of $0.41/share (up 5% YoY) maintained; catalysts include lease-up contribution (~$30M incremental NOI at stabilization) and transaction market activity at pricing above prior GAVs .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
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What Went Well
- Pro forma FFO/AFFO growth despite COVID-19 costs: Pro forma FFO/share +$0.03 YoY to $0.63; AFFO/share +$0.04 YoY to $0.55, driven by communities in lease-up, mezzanine loan contribution (Parkmerced accrual), lower G&A and lower capital replacement spending .
- Collections resilience and operational discipline: Recognized 98.4% of residential revenue with 97.2% collected in cash by July 31; CFO: “we feel quite good about our approach,” citing historical collection experience and collateral/credit review .
- Liquidity strengthened, maturities addressed: $689M of property financings (WA rate 2.9%, term 9.3 yrs) plus $350M term loan; liquidity $1.2B; average borrowing cost reduced to 3.69% .
Management quotes:
- CEO: “The resilient Aimco business absorbed the financial blow and is now recovering from the shock of the pandemic and the ‘lockdown’ of the economy.”
- Ops EVP: “July leasing volume exceeded last year… Our operations team has been built for times like this in mind.”
- CFO: “Pro forma FFO… up 5% y/y… after subtraction of $0.05 of COVID-related costs.”
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What Went Wrong
- Occupancy and rate pressure: Same Store NOI -1.4% YoY and -4.5% QoQ; Average Daily Occupancy fell to 95.5% (from 96.9% LY), and blended lease growth slowed; July blended -1.1% .
- COVID-19 related revenues/expenses: Incremental $8.0M headwind (term loan interest, bad debt, lower commercial, waived late fees, other); plus straight-line write-offs/deferred commission impacts YTD .
- Geographic softness and regulatory risk: Greater pressure in Los Angeles (regulatory environment) and Miami (hospitality-driven employment); Prop 21 (CA rent control) re-emerging on ballot highlighted as a risk focus .
Financial Results
Per-share metrics (diluted)
Consolidated revenues
Same Store P&L (proportionate; before/after utility reclasses as defined)
Leasing KPIs
Segment/portfolio breakdown (proportionate)
Balance sheet and liquidity
Guidance Changes
Note: No formal numerical 2020 guidance was reiterated in the Q2 2020 release/call; management emphasized liquidity, leverage and development lease-up milestones .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- Strategic posture: “We are at or near the bottom in monthly Average Daily Occupancy… Notwithstanding all that has happened… our first half results met our pre-crisis expectations.” – Terry Considine, CEO .
- Pricing/occupancy strategy: “We are playing the long game… solving to total contribution… building by building, unit by unit… not willing to compromise… resident quality.” – Keith Kimmel, EVP Ops .
- Balance sheet and leverage path: “Leverage… remains above-targeted levels. We plan to reduce leverage to less than 7:1 through lease-up… and approximately $350 million of property sales.” – Paul Beldin, CFO .
- Development update: “Parc Mosaic… 84% leased… 707 Leahy… 77% of delivered homes leased… The Fremont… about half of delivered homes leased.” – Wes Powell, EVP Redevelopment .
Q&A Highlights
- Occupancy vs rate: Management prioritizes total contribution, tailoring strategies by market; not chasing occupancy at the expense of long-term rent roll quality .
- Collections/bad debt geography: Higher delinquencies where local regulations “embolden” nonpayment; pressure greatest in Los Angeles and Miami; stronger in Northern California and Denver .
- Demand recovery: July tours +20% YoY; pent-up seasonal demand; suburban outperformance vs urban, though signs of improvement in Mid-Wilshire LA .
- Transactions/cap rates: Demand “lots of interest,” low rates offset turbulence; selective on pricing; sales under contract at >3% above prior GAV .
- Parkmerced mezzanine: Interest accrued per agreement (10%); no cash received in Q2; accrual based on collectibility assessment and security by >$300M junior equity .
Estimates Context
- Wall Street consensus for Q2 2020 EPS/Revenue: Unavailable for this recap due to S&P Global daily request limit. As a result, explicit beat/miss vs consensus cannot be provided.
- Implication: Given Pro forma FFO and AFFO grew YoY despite COVID costs, and Same Store NOI declined modestly, estimate revisions may focus on near-term NOI and occupancy trough timing while recognizing balance sheet strength and lease-up contributions .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Defensive operations with resilient collections: Recognized 98.4% of residential revenue with high cash conversion; bad debt contained at 1.6% despite macro shock .
- Near-term trough dynamics: Occupancy and blended pricing pressure likely persist through peak season; management sees bottoming and recovery signs in demand metrics .
- Liquidity/terming are strong; path to leverage targets credible through lease-ups and measured asset sales; no near-term covenant pressure .
- Development value creation intact: Lease-ups progressing; ~$30M incremental NOI at stabilization supports medium-term AFFO growth .
- Geographic/regulatory dispersion matters: LA/Miami headwinds vs DC/Boston/Denver/San Diego strength; monitor CA policy (Prop 21) and urban vs suburban demand mix .
- Dividend maintained ($0.41/share); payout sustainability supported by collections and liquidity, though growth hinges on occupancy recovery and lease-up pace .
- Trading stance: Near-term choppiness in occupancy/rents may create volatility; focus on signs of stabilization (July/August leasing lifts), execution on sales, and cadence of lease-up NOI.
Appendix: Notable Additional Data
- COVID-19 P&L headwind in Q2: $8.0M comprised of $2.6M net incremental interest (term loan), $2.5M incremental bad debt, $1.5M lower commercial revenue, $0.6M lower other income (late fee restrictions), $0.8M other .
- Same Store revenue component drivers Q2: Residential rent +2.5% YoY; occupancy -1.4% pts; bad debt -1.2% pt; late fees/other -0.7% pt; commercial -0.3% pt .