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ASSURANT, INC. (AIZ)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2025 delivered broad-based strength: Adjusted EPS of $5.73 and Adjusted EBITDA of $431.5M, with ex-cat Adjusted EPS of $5.76 and ex-cat Adjusted EBITDA of $433.5M; total revenues were $3.23B .
  • Results beat Wall Street: EPS beat by roughly $1.46 vs consensus and revenue topped estimates; EBITDA also exceeded consensus, while lower catastrophe losses were a tailwind *.
  • Guidance raised: FY25 ex-cat Adjusted EPS raised to “low double-digit” growth and ex-cat Adjusted EBITDA to “approaching 10%,” while Corporate loss widened to ~$120M; buybacks increased to $300M at top-end of range .
  • Setup into Q4/2026: Housing momentum (higher lender-placed policies, favorable loss experience) and Lifestyle wins (Best Buy partnership, expanded reverse logistics facility) reinforce durable growth, though 2026 Corporate investments will weigh near-term .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Double-digit earnings growth across Global Housing and Global Lifestyle; ex-cat Adjusted EBITDA up 13% YoY to $433.5M, driven by favorable non-cat loss experience and top-line growth .
    • Strategic wins: new reverse logistics facility with a large U.S. carrier; Best Buy Geek Squad partnership to expand AI-enabled support and repairs; management emphasized AI, automation, and robotics integration .
    • Capital strength and returns: holdco liquidity $613M; repurchased ~398K shares ($81M) and paid $41M dividends in Q3; plan to return $300M for FY25 .

  • What Went Wrong

    • Corporate & Other loss increased to $(31.6)M in Q3 (and FY25 outlook widened to ~$120M) on lower investment income and strategic investments for an adjacent program .
    • Prior-year reserve development in Housing was lower YoY ($28.5M vs $44.7M), tempering the year-over-year uplift even as underlying trends remained favorable .
    • Higher effective tax rate partially offset earnings growth; management cited tax rate headwind alongside strong operating momentum .

Financial Results

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Total Revenues ($USD Billions)$3.07B $3.16B $3.23B
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$2.83 $4.56 $5.17
Adjusted EPS ($)$3.39 $5.10 $5.73
Adjusted EPS ex-cat ($)$5.79 $5.56 $5.76
EPS Consensus Mean* ($)$2.78*$4.45*$4.28*
Revenue Consensus Mean* ($USD Billions)$3.06B*$3.13B*$3.15B*
Reportable Catastrophes ($USD Millions)$157.0 $29.8 $2.0

S&P Global disclaimer: Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global (consensus estimates).

MarginsQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$282.2 $386.0 $431.5
Adjusted EBITDA ex-cat ($USD Millions)$439.2 $415.8 $433.5
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)9.2% 12.2% 13.4%
Adjusted EBITDA ex-cat Margin (%)14.3% 13.2% 13.4%

Segment Breakdown

Segment Metrics ($USD Millions)Q3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
Global Lifestyle Adjusted EBITDA$184.3 $201.4 $206.8
Global Housing Adjusted EBITDA$92.4 $214.4 $256.3
Global Lifestyle NEP, Fees & Other Income$2,249.5 $2,350.8 $2,406.2
Global Housing NEP, Fees & Other Income$603.8 $697.7 $702.9
Global Lifestyle ex-cat Adjusted EBITDA$185.7 $201.4 $205.9
Global Housing ex-cat Adjusted EBITDA$229.2 $244.2 $259.2

Key Performance Indicators

KPIQ2 2025Q3 2025
Holding Company Liquidity ($MM)$518 $613
Segment Dividends to Holdco ($MM)$232 $189
Share Repurchases (Shares; $MM)~319K; $62 ~398K; $81
Common Stock Dividends Paid ($MM)$43 $41
Reportable Catastrophes ($MM)$29.8 $2.0
Mobile Subscriber Net Adds (YoY)—2.1M
Lender-Placed Policy Count Growth (YoY)—+8%
Average Insured Value (AIV) (YoY)—+5%

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Adjusted EPS (ex-cat) growthFY 2025Approaching 10% Low double-digit Raised
Adjusted EBITDA (ex-cat) growthFY 2025Mid- to high single-digit Approaching 10% Raised
Corporate & Other Adjusted EBITDA lossFY 2025~$(115)M ~$(120)M Lowered (more loss)
Depreciation expenseFY 2025~$155M ~$150M Lowered
Interest expenseFY 2025~$107M ~$110M Raised
Effective tax rateFY 2025~19–21% ~19–21% Maintained
Amortization of purchased intangiblesFY 2025~$65M ~$65M Maintained
Share repurchasesFY 2025$250–$300M; upper end expected $300M (top of range) Raised

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 & Q2)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
AI/automation & roboticsContinued investments in AI-enabled platforms to expand capabilities Expanded use of automation, AI and robotics in reverse logistics; acquisition of OptoFidelity device test tech to scale refurb and quality Accelerating
Reverse logistics & supply chainTrade-in momentum supporting Connected Living; mobile protection growth New multi-year facility with major U.S. carrier to centralize returns and maximize circularity Structural expansion
Mobile protection & iPhone cycleConnected Living growth; improved programs Robust cycle; protection programs roll with upgrades; clients captured ~81% postpaid net adds Positive
Global Automotive loss performanceImproving loss experience; stable run-rate earnings Loss ratios improved; non-run-rate +$6M; stabilization expected from rate actions/product changes Improving/stable
Housing (lender-placed)Growth from higher policies in force and premiums; favorable loss experience Policies +8% YoY; placement rates benefiting from voluntary market pressure; strong underlying results Strong growth
Tariffs/macro monitoringIncorporated in outlook; monitored Continued monitoring; noted in guidance and safe harbor Ongoing watch
New adjacent program (Corporate)—Planned launch early 2026; higher Corporate loss in 2026 to fund opportunity Investment phase

Management Commentary

  • “We delivered a very strong third quarter with double-digit earnings growth across both Global Housing and Global Lifestyle… we’re increasing our 2025 outlook” — CEO Keith Demmings .
  • “We leverage advanced automation, AI and robotics on the processing side to maximize efficiency and ensure consistent, scalable outcomes” — CEO Keith Demmings on reverse logistics facility .
  • “Adjusted EPS to grow low double digits and full year adjusted EBITDA growth approaching 10% excluding cats” — CFO Keith Meyer, raising FY25 outlook .
  • “Holding company liquidity was $613 million… we returned $122 million to shareholders in Q3” — CFO Keith Meyer .

Q&A Highlights

  • Housing pipeline: Management sees white-space despite leadership position; technology and lender-placed solutions driving new client wins (multi-year renewal with largest PMC and two new PMC partnerships) .
  • Global Auto sustainability: Vehicle service contracts stabilized from rate actions; GAP loss exposure diminishing; non-run-rate benefit ~$6M in Q3 .
  • Voluntary market dynamics: Hard voluntary market boosted placement rates and policies; countercyclical dynamics could support top line in downturns .
  • Capital deployment: Strong liquidity supports balanced approach (organic investments, M&A in Brazil/Japan/device testing tech) and buybacks; 20 straight years of dividend increases .
  • New adjacent program: Corporate investments rising in 2026 for a new line of business led by Chief Innovation Officer .
  • Reinsurance outlook: Favorable setup for April 1 renewal; no events touched tower in 2025; mix shifting to less cat-prone states .

Estimates Context

  • EPS beat all three quarters: Actual vs consensus — Q3 $5.73 vs $4.28*, Q2 $5.10 vs $4.45*, Q1 $3.39 vs $2.78*; significant sequential and YoY beats driven by Housing strength and lower catastrophes *.
  • Revenue beat all three quarters: Q3 $3.23B vs $3.15B*, Q2 $3.16B vs $3.13B*, Q1 $3.07B vs $3.06B* *.
  • EBITDA exceeded consensus in Q3 and matched/near in Q2: Q3 $422.7M actual vs $400.4M*; Q2 $374.7M actual vs $375.5M*; Q1 below consensus given elevated catastrophes *.

S&P Global disclaimer: Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global (consensus estimates).

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Q3 was a high-quality beat with stronger ex-cat earnings and improved margins; momentum across Housing and Lifestyle supports FY25 guidance raise .
  • Housing remains a key driver: higher policies-in-force, favorable loss frequency, and continued PMC growth; watch placement rates as voluntary market evolves .
  • Lifestyle catalysts into 2026: reverse logistics facility and Best Buy partnership should expand capabilities and earnings durability; expect investment ramp in Corporate tied to new adjacent program .
  • Capital return elevated: buybacks targeted at $300M for FY25 and strong liquidity; supportive for shareholder returns near term .
  • Risk monitor: catastrophe variability, FX, effective tax rate, and Corporate investment spend; reinsurance renewal expected favorable given 2025 experience .
  • Trading lens: beats plus guidance raise are incrementally positive; near-term setup benefits from low catastrophe losses and Housing/Lifestyle execution, though 2026 Corporate spend may cap multiple expansion until visibility improves .
  • Estimate revisions: Street likely to lift EPS and EBITDA trajectories for FY25 ex-cat given Q3 outperformance and guide-up; watch Corporate loss and investment cadence for FY26 bridge .